gerryhatrick Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & ResearchCanadian Liberals Reach 40% After Dion Win December 10, 2006 - The opposition Liberal party is the top political organization in Canada, according to a poll by Ekos research Associates published in the Toronto Star. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the Liberals in the next federal election. http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/14042 How much of this is convention bump and how much is Stephane Dion. I think it's time to acknowledge that Stephane has some appeal to Canadians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffrey Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 I'm sure he does... he did have 20% support of the Liberal party, so that's around 6% of the population... add in the rest of the Liberals that will support any leader and we're around, 30%. He's got tons of momentum. But he hasn't faced a campaign yet. When he's torn to peices in the English debate, hung out to dry on his involvement in sponsorship (he might not have been responsible, but only an idiot would think he didn't turn a blind eye), his complete failure on the environment, his vote against SSM, his devotion to France... Yikes. He's not as clean as he's portrayed. Even his mother seems to be out to prevent him from being PM. One campaign should be enough to destroy the man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerryhatrick Posted December 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 G, you're so excited it's hard to understand your post! Has the situation got you a little jumpy, mayhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Blue Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 What is this, a tenth topic started by you relating to the some poll that has the Liberal's up in popularity. Anyways, well its their is a high probability that an election won't be called in the spring. The reason why is with the Liberal's riding high why would the NDP and Bloc want to have an election and lose MP's to a re-energized Liberal party. I'll wait to see what happen's in the coming month's to see how I'll vote. I might go Liberal depending on what they offer, but its gonna be same old story then no thanks. PS: Thanks for cluddering up the message board instead of posting this poll in a topic relating to Dion's surge in support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerryhatrick Posted December 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 What is this, a tenth topic started by you relating to the some poll that has the Liberal's up in popularity. No, two I think. Polls are pretty significant at the moment given the election of a new Liberal leader. If you don't like it, don't post. It's informational and it's news-worthy, and anyone unhappy with the information should strive for maturity and not whine and complain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Blue Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 It's informational and it's news-worthy, and anyone unhappy with the information should strive for maturity and not whine and complain. I think you've already got a monopoly on that Gerry from what I read in the topic comparing Harper to Stalin...... All this really show's is you keeping on with your partisan rhetoric constantly cluddering up the boards more than they have to be. I've seen so many topics on Dion I often wonder whether or not it would be easier to make one topic and the subject be Dion instead of having a cluddered orgy were everybody makes their partisan case for or against Dion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerryhatrick Posted December 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 It's informational and it's news-worthy, and anyone unhappy with the information should strive for maturity and not whine and complain. I think you've already got a monopoly on that Gerry from what I read in the topic comparing Harper to Stalin...... That topic is a parody. Honesty would require you to admit that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watching&waiting Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Gerry you again are posting multiple topics about the same thing. You know that is against the rules and while you usually push the envelope in that, you now are stepping out side it. But that is just my opinion. I actually would love to see the liberals call for an election say this January and then we would see just what the standing are. Right now the polls represent more a show of agreement that the Liberals have made the right choice for leader. The real stuff will come about only in an election call and the campiagnes there of. The voters are fical about many things and they will be even more so now. I do see that much of the NDP vote has withered to the Liberals, and that was not surprising as Layton I always found annoying and never trusted him all all. The CPC is setting up for election mode and the only time that the Liberals will have to stall that will be a January election call. If they do it any later CPC will have introduced an election budget. You know just like the Liberals used to do. If the Liberals do the call quickly they may be able to miss reports that will surface from the fact that Dions new position means the Auditor General will need to do an indepth report to clear or smear the new leader. You do know that is going to happen, as it is just the right thing for her to do, and it is her job. Also the RCMP will be getting a new boss and since it will be appointed by the CPC I think all those criminal probes will become something of a more appeal. Now before you cry foul, remember this is exactly what a voter would expect of their government. So yes the polls right now are swinging to the Libs, but a funny thing about swings is they only go so far and then they come back the other way. From my point od view the only chance the liberal will have to make a move will be January and they will have to do this with the fractured party and with nuch less money. I am not sure they will do it, but I also think that is their best and only real chance for now. Otherwise they will need to wait for late spring or early fall. By then the polls will be what they will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Argus Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Shouldn't the topic of this thread be "NDP Support plummets again"? Ten percent, eh? Is that a "National party"? Is that a party that's even going to survive an election? Are we seeing the end of smiling Jack Layton and his used Socialism dealership? Will the Green Party push the NDP into FIFTH place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimmy Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Some things seem to be pretty constant in all of the polls I've seen since the leadership race. -the Liberal lead is about 6 points... whether the exact numbers are 37-31, 38-32, or 40-34, the margin in each poll seems to be about the same. -the bump in Liberal support seems to be mostly at the expense of the NDP. Stephane Dion's ambitious environmental agenda is probably the reason why. Pornstache Jack is probably the guy most worried by these polls. -Conservative numbers have remained relatively constant. Each poll has showed a drop of only a point or two. If there was a contingent of "soft" Conservative support that was waiting to see who the Liberals picked before deciding whether to go back, it was either a pretty small contingent, or they weren't very excited about Dion. Personally, I still suspect there's something of a honeymoon effect. I know Gerry will beg to differ. We'll have to see how things unfold. Particularly, we'll have to see how Action Jack tries to go about winning back the NDP support that has turned Liberal in the past week or so. We'll also have to see how people react when Dion starts talking about real policy instead of "motherhood" issues. -k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stignasty Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 The thing that this poll does not address is the undecided voter. It would be interesting to see if the number of undecided voters has changed. If so, that may indicate a more concrete shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Some things seem to be pretty constant in all of the polls I've seen since the leadership race. -the Liberal lead is about 6 points... whether the exact numbers are 37-31, 38-32, or 40-34, the margin in each poll seems to be about the same. -the bump in Liberal support seems to be mostly at the expense of the NDP. Stephane Dion's ambitious environmental agenda is probably the reason why. Pornstache Jack is probably the guy most worried by these polls. -Conservative numbers have remained relatively constant. Each poll has showed a drop of only a point or two. If there was a contingent of "soft" Conservative support that was waiting to see who the Liberals picked before deciding whether to go back, it was either a pretty small contingent, or they weren't very excited about Dion. I tend to agree with these conclusions. With the current numbers, the Liberals will win a minority but a majority government is still uncertain. Chretien won a majority with a mere 38.5% of the vote in 1997 but then the rightwing vote was split: 19% Reform, 19% PC. Chretien won far more seats and another majority in 2000 with 40.8% of the vote versus 25.5% for the Alliance and 12.2% for PC. After the two rightwing parties merged, Harper won 29.6% of the vote in 2004 and when the Liberals were at their least popular in 2006, Harper won 36.3%. So what's the conclusion? Even if everyone who ever voted PC, Reform or Alliance in the past 10 years now supported Harper, the best he could hope for is 38%. But despite the denials of his strongest supporters, his so-con credentials remain, so even 38% is elusive. Even if by some miracle Harper pulls off 38% in the next election, all that Dion needs to do is pull off more votes from the NDP, Greens and perhaps BQ. With Harper as CPC leader, that's achievable. At least some of the NDP and Green supporters I know would much rather take a chance on Dion than waste their vote and help anti-Kyoto, pro-Darrel Reid Harper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikedavid00 Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Shouldn't the topic of this thread be "NDP Support plummets again"?Ten percent, eh? Is that a "National party"? Is that a party that's even going to survive an election? Are we seeing the end of smiling Jack Layton and his used Socialism dealership? Will the Green Party push the NDP into FIFTH place? Call me crazy, but I wonder if the loss in NDP support is from David Miller? I can't figure out why they dived in popularity. I hope all this isn't over the lebanon issue that happened in the summer. I think that's when things went downhill poll-wise for the CPC. Could be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 I hope all this isn't over the lebanon issue that happened in the summer. I think that's when things went downhill poll-wise for the CPC. Could be wrong. As others have pointed out, the CPC hasn't gone down much in the polls. If I were a CPC supporter, I'd only worry if the numbers dropped below 30%. Harper likely peaked in the last election when the Liberals were in the toilet in terms of voter support. The challenge for Harper in the next election will be to prevent NDP, Green and BQ voters from swinging to the Liberals. This will mean attacking Dion on issues like the environment, a topic on which Harper has no credibility (unless you count his appointment of Darrel Reid to the Environment ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerryhatrick Posted December 10, 2006 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Gerry you again are posting multiple topics about the same thing. You know that is against the rules and while you usually push the envelope in that, you now are stepping out side it. But that is just my opinion. You're not entitled to make a false statement as fact, and then add the caveat "but that's just my opinion". This is the ONLY topic on this poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watching&waiting Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Gerry not only do I beg to differ with you on this point, it is also a fact of the very topic of this thread is the same as another thread about the polls. But I am a patient man and if you insist on doing this, the way you have. I will wait to respond in kind when it swings the other way. You know a knew thread for every point the poll changes etc. But then again I probably will be more grown up and may just let it go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 From link above: Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,022 Canadian adults, conducted on Dec. 5 and Dec. 6, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent. Stephane Dion was chosen leader on 2 Dec. So people were questioned three days after the media was talking endlessly about the Liberal convention. Wait for few weeks to see where this goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stignasty Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 "Dogs know what to do with polls." -- John Diefenbaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cynic43 Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Very amusing when the polls show the Libs are gaining the right wing nut jobs are trying to disredit the results. The Libs are gainiing beause Harper comes across more like the Pillsbury dough boy than a leader who exites the masses Dion will appeal to the young and idealistic and that will carry him a long way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Very amusing when the polls show the Libs are gaining the right wing nut jobs are tryingto discredit the results. It's not surprising. The alternative would be for them to acknowledge that Stephen Harper is not the person to lead CPC into the next election. Personally I hope that Stephen Harper does lead CPC into the next election since replacing him with a social moderate might actually help the CPC defeat Dion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikedavid00 Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Very amusing when the polls show the Libs are gaining the right wing nut jobs are trying to discredit the results. It's not surprising. The alternative would be for them to acknowledge that Stephen Harper is not the person to lead CPC into the next election. Personally I hope that Stephen Harper does lead CPC into the next election since replacing him with a social moderate might actually help the CPC defeat Dion. Don't you know the voting demographics of Canada? Our politcs do not work like American politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Wait for few weeks to see where this goes. If it stays the same, blame the left wing media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Very amusing when the polls show the Libs are gaining the right wing nut jobs are trying to discredit the results. It's not surprising. The alternative would be for them to acknowledge that Stephen Harper is not the person to lead CPC into the next election. Personally I hope that Stephen Harper does lead CPC into the next election since replacing him with a social moderate might actually help the CPC defeat Dion. Don't you know the voting demographics of Canada? Are you referring to the fact that 65% of Canadians vote for social moderates and parties to the left of CPC, i.e., Liberals, BQ, NDP and Greens? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Blue Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Well, only about 60% of Canadian's vote, so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
normanchateau Posted December 10, 2006 Report Share Posted December 10, 2006 Well, only about 60% of Canadian's vote, so who knows. And of those who vote, approximately 65% vote for parties to the left of CPC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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