The sheer brilliance of the Liberal Party

[Figleaf]

Man alive! The Liberal party, pragmatic, ruthless, an almost magical political machine has done it again.

Sorely in need of a renewal, the party recruits two outsiders (Iggy and Rae) to be its campaign front-runners, links them thoroughly to the existing establishment, and annoints a former cabinet minister and sitting critic as their new face of renewal. What a manouevre!

Now, Harper faces another intellectual with better credentials than his, a native quebecois but with better federalist chops, and a man of impeccable integrity. Today's poll shows 62% (!) of Quebeckers think the Liberals made the right choice. So much for hatred of Dion in Quebec -- say one thing for them, Quebeckers like a candidate who stands up for what he believes in, even when they personally may believe differently.

The neo-con dream of capturing Canada is over folks.

[Technocrat]

can you linkey that poll for us?

That 62% needs to translate into votes... if it does not... then who cares. Another good poll would be asking Manitoba & west what they think of Dion. Im not gunna lie I like Dion, he was my second choice but im not overly thrilled about the fact that we have another Lib leader from quebec... I would love to see a newfie PM. We would have national drinking day (just kidding)

Hey im joining the Lib Party this week, Im not jumping for joy and declaring 'mission accomplished'

There is much work to be done and really he has been leader of the Libs for what not even 72 hours?

Give it some time and we shall see.

(Just to note... just because im joining a political party does not mean im going to be a partisan hack... Im going to be a total grunt in the Libs & I know it, Im really just interested in the experience. I will disagree with my party when I think a bad choice has been made. To do otherwise is dishonest.)

[August1991]

In Ontario, the Liberals experienced a 12-point jump, going from 36 per cent to 48 per cent. The Tories dropped a point to 32 per cent. However, in Quebec and the West, the Liberals' numbers were flat.

"The Liberal Party has had almost a week of sustained and generally favourable media coverage, so everybody really expected they would get a bump in the polls," CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said.

...

In Dion's home province, 62 per cent found Dion a good choice while 29 per cent said he was a poor one.

Both those numbers are the highest and lowest for any regional breakout.

CTV

The sample size in Quebec is about 250 people. We don't know the wording of the question but it's another question whether it turns into seats. I think it will particularly in Montreal.

[kimmy]

Not that long ago Gerry Hatrick was trumpetting a poll showing Bob Rae was the favorite choice of Canadians, while Stephane Dion was rated 4th with a paltry 12%.

Let's have a look at the poll that Figleaf is referring to:

"We have the Liberal grassroots thinking that Dion was a better choice and Canadians seem to agree," said Fife.

The Strategic Counsel poll found that 55 per cent of Canadians consider Dion to be a good choice for leader.

Nineteen per cent felt the Quebec MP and cabinet veteran was a poor choice, while 27 per cent had no opinion.

"Stephane Dion is a little like (former Liberal prime minister) Jean Chretien. The media and elites always underestimated Chretien, but he identified with people on Main Street," Fife said.

"I think average Canadians respect Stephane Dion because he's gutsy and he's tough, and I think (Conservative Prime Minister) Stephen Harper should be very careful."

In Dion's home province, 62 per cent found Dion a good choice while 29 per cent said he was a poor one. Both those numbers are the highest and lowest for any regional breakout.

That last sentence indicates that in every other region, at least 30% of people surveyed considered Dion "a poor choice". And a little quality time with my pocket calculator indicates that when the Quebec component of the survey is discounted, only 52% of the people surveyed considered him "a good choice".

In "the rest of Canada," only 52% people consider him "a good choice" and at least 30% of people consider him "a poor choice", so interpretting this as a "brilliant" decision requires putting a lot of faith in the Quebec numbers.

So, how enthusiastic are Quebecers about Stephane Dion? That's an interesting question. Maybe 62% of Quebecers are jumping up and down in excitement over his win. Then again, maybe they just thought he was the best choice because he was the only Quebec candidate in the whole race. As Technocrat points out, it doesn't say that 62% of Quebecers plan to vote for him.

-k

[Big Blue Machine]

Anyone can make up statistics, 42% of people know that.

[stignasty]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

The thing with polls in Canadian politics is that they don't ever account for regional parties. The Liberals could be at 50% nationally, but unless they are more popular in Quebec, they're not going to win a seat there. For a poll to be meaningful it would have to account on a riding by riding basis.

[jdobbin]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

The thing with polls in Canadian politics is that they don't ever account for regional parties. The Liberals could be at 50% nationally, but unless they are more popular in Quebec, they're not going to win a seat there. For a poll to be meaningful it would have to account on a riding by riding basis.

I guess that holds true for the Tories as well. So how will they be winning this majority everyone talks about?

[geoffrey]

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli

The thing with polls in Canadian politics is that they don't ever account for regional parties. The Liberals could be at 50% nationally, but unless they are more popular in Quebec, they're not going to win a seat there. For a poll to be meaningful it would have to account on a riding by riding basis.

I guess that holds true for the Tories as well. So how will they be winning this majority everyone talks about?

I outlined numerous ridings where the Tories have a clear chance at picking up with a weak Liberal leader in power, in another thread, I'm going to see if I can track it down for you.

[geoffrey]

All the Federalists in Quebec already vote Liberal. Where is he to gain? With the soft nationalists? Unlikely.

With Rae they'd possibly lose Oak Ridges-Markham (rich suburbanites), Mississagua-Erindale (rich riding), Mississagua-South (Rich, former PC riding), Brant (the Liberals will lose this as the CPC is seen as more stronghanded with the Indians, not so much because of Rae), Guelph (former Mulroney riding, won't vote NDP), Huron-Bruce (have a few friends from there, it's pretty conservative, was fervently anti-Rae during the NDP reign), London-West (the affluent Londoners, Mulroney held).

So there is seven very pro-business affluent communities that are nearly CPC seats already and just need one little push over the edge. A hardline socialist at the helm of the Liberals is enough. Maybe not all will go with the NDP support switiching over. But two? Absolutely.

What will Rae pick up exactly?

So there's a few.

CPC would also make some gains where the vote split between the Liberals and the NDP increases in former NDP seats.

I would predict a CPC pickup in London-Fanshawe with the split.

I also would predict Belinda is not that safe in a very affluent riding with a close margin.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....=7171&hl=London

I was speaking on Rae, but my thoughts are along similar lines with Dion. He's not an NDP socialist, but he's not liked anywhere in Canada. Dion will split the NDP environmentalist vote, a sizeable portion of NDP support.

[jdobbin]

I outlined numerous ridings where the Tories have a clear chance at picking up with a weak Liberal leader in power, in another thread, I'm going to see if I can track it down for you.

I suppose they could win more seats in Ontario. No more to win in Alberta though.

[geoffrey]

I outlined numerous ridings where the Tories have a clear chance at picking up with a weak Liberal leader in power, in another thread, I'm going to see if I can track it down for you.

I suppose they could win more seats in Ontario. No more to win in Alberta though.

I found six likely pickups with a non-Martin type leader. Maybe more. And that's just in Ontario. Harper will pick up Quebec seats... Dion is the father of the Clarity Act... do you really think any soft nationalist support is going to stay with the Liberals? Not a chance in hell.

[jdobbin]

I found six likely pickups with a non-Martin type leader. Maybe more. And that's just in Ontario. Harper will pick up Quebec seats... Dion is the father of the Clarity Act... do you really think any soft nationalist support is going to stay with the Liberals? Not a chance in hell.

Actually, I think Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than Dion.

[geoffrey]

I found six likely pickups with a non-Martin type leader. Maybe more. And that's just in Ontario. Harper will pick up Quebec seats... Dion is the father of the Clarity Act... do you really think any soft nationalist support is going to stay with the Liberals? Not a chance in hell.

Actually, I think Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than Dion.

Actually, they both suck in Quebec. Agreed. Maybe we'll see a departure of Quebec sooner than later.

I still can't get over the Liberals choice of Dion over Kennedy. Kennedy would have been their man in Ontario, he's incrediably popular everywhere in Ontario. He led Alberta in delegates, he's liked out west. A Liberal, popular in the West?

The big hold up was Quebec. So what do they do? Elect the only person that challenges Kennedy on being incapable of making gains in Quebec... with the additional burden of having zero appeal to the west and little to Ontario.

[August1991]

At present, the Tories have about 125 and the Liberals about 100.

I can see five or maybe ten seats going from the Bloc to the Liberals. The Tories can hold on to their seats in Quebec City and the Beauce.

IOW, however you slice this, you still come up with a minority with either PM Harper or PM Dion.

[geoffrey]

Why won't Montrealers vote CPC August? I understand the social progressiveness, but really, anyone with common sense knows no politican would touch abortion or evolution in schools or anything like that. It's un-Canadian.

I'm thinking of taking a semester at HEC Montreal next year. I'm really looking forward to a little more insight into this city, I've been their for the food and music, but not long enough to understand the politics.

How is Dion liked in Montreal? What is the word on the street?