Bob Rae Looking to Squeeze out the NDP

[scribblet]

IMHO I doubt it would work in Ontario

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

Rae says his leadership would lure NDP voters

BILL CURRY with a report from Canadian Press

OTTAWA -- Bob Rae says he can position the Liberals as the best option to take on Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives because his leadership will squeeze out the NDP.

With only two weeks of campaigning left before delegates begin arriving in Montreal for the federal Liberals' leadership convention, Mr. Rae is seizing on a new poll that shows he could swing New Democratic Party voters into the Liberal camp.

Canadians are "looking for a new leader who in fact could move the Liberal Party forward and clearly establish the Liberal Party as the alternative to Mr. Harper, which is the key to what we need to do to form a government," Mr. Rae said yesterday in an interview with CBC.

[Ricki Bobbi]

That is a valid point, and I still maintain that Bob Rae is the only leader with a real shot at winning for the Liberals in the spring.

On the Ontario thing. Sure he will lose a lot of centre/centre-right Liberal voters, but he will also pick up a lot of NDP voters. I think Ontario is a wash with Rae as leader and the Conservatives pick up a few seats in Quebec.

He might help them pick up seats in SK, MB and BC. Should do well in Quebec...

[geoffrey]

The loss of seats in Ontario (or lack of gain) pretty much makes him a worthless candidate. The numbers open to gain in the West for any Liberal are single digit. Quebec? Vote for Rae? Maybe. It could happen. But win seats? Unlikely.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The loss of seats in Ontario (or lack of gain) pretty much makes him a worthless candidate. The numbers open to gain in the West for any Liberal are single digit. Quebec? Vote for Rae? Maybe. It could happen. But win seats? Unlikely.

Take an actual look at the situation in Quebc. Remember Bob Rae supported Meech Lake and Charlottetown. His French is the excellent. Quebecois appreciate his lefty social leanings.

He has the possibility of gaining a bit in Ontario.

Let's say he picks up six seats there, eight more in Quebec, two in the Maritimes, one in MB, one in SK and two in BC.

That puts them right there with where the Conservatives are now.

[geoffrey]

The loss of seats in Ontario (or lack of gain) pretty much makes him a worthless candidate. The numbers open to gain in the West for any Liberal are single digit. Quebec? Vote for Rae? Maybe. It could happen. But win seats? Unlikely.

Take an actual look at the situation in Quebc. Remember Bob Rae supported Meech Lake and Charlottetown. His French is the excellent. Quebecois appreciate his lefty social leanings.

He has the possibility of gaining a bit in Ontario.

Let's say he picks up six seats there, eight more in Quebec, two in the Maritimes, one in MB, one in SK and two in BC.

That puts them right there with where the Conservatives are now.

I think thats very generous. My prediction would be a loss of 2 seats in Ontario, pick up of 1 in Quebec, 1 in the Maritimes and one in BC. So a net gain of 1. Why do you think that Rae appeals to Quebec so much? I really have to disagree here.

As well, on a selfish note, do we really want a PM that caters to Quebec... again.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I think thats very generous. My prediction would be a loss of 2 seats in Ontario, pick up of 1 in Quebec, 1 in the Maritimes and one in BC. So a net gain of 1. Why do you think that Rae appeals to Quebec so much? I really have to disagree here.

As well, on a selfish note, do we really want a PM that caters to Quebec... again.

I think Rae appeals to Quebec for what I just stated above. The Federalists in Quebec liked Meech Lake and Charlottetown. Rae supported both deals and Harper opposed them. His French is solid. His lefty social leanings appeal to Quebeckers as well. Instead of dancing around them look at those issues.

Which two seats would he lose in Ontario?

With Rae as leader they pick up:

Ottawa-Centre, Barrie, Parkdale-High Park, and the three Hamilton seats.

I'm not saying I support Rae. I'm saying he is the toughest potential Liberal leader for the Conservatives to beat.

[geoffrey]

All the Federalists in Quebec already vote Liberal. Where is he to gain? With the soft nationalists? Unlikely.

With Rae they'd possibly lose Oak Ridges-Markham (rich suburbanites), Mississagua-Erindale (rich riding), Mississagua-South (Rich, former PC riding), Brant (the Liberals will lose this as the CPC is seen as more stronghanded with the Indians, not so much because of Rae), Guelph (former Mulroney riding, won't vote NDP), Huron-Bruce (have a few friends from there, it's pretty conservative, was fervently anti-Rae during the NDP reign), London-West (the affluent Londoners, Mulroney held).

So there is seven very pro-business affluent communities that are nearly CPC seats already and just need one little push over the edge. A hardline socialist at the helm of the Liberals is enough. Maybe not all will go with the NDP support switiching over. But two? Absolutely.

What will Rae pick up exactly?

So there's a few.

CPC would also make some gains where the vote split between the Liberals and the NDP increases in former NDP seats.

I would predict a CPC pickup in London-Fanshawe with the split.

I also would predict Belinda is not that safe in a very affluent riding with a close margin.

[cybercoma]

I think the leader plays some part in who people vote for in their ridings, but I think the majority of their decision is based on what each of the MPs in the party has done in their ridings. I have nothing to back this up. In fact, I could be way off base...but I think the leadership only plays a small part.

If the leader was a total dunce, I can see people not voting for their candidate of choice... or if the other leaders were absolute junk it may cement their vote. Given that most Canadians only have a passing interest in politics, they likely don't understand the different leaders much beyond a couple of public appearances.

Bob Rae, Michael Igantieff, Dion, Mundo, Bruiser, Franky the Pipe....

It doesn't really matter who is picked.

[Ricki Bobbi]

What will Rae pick up exactly?

So there's a few.

CPC would also make some gains where the vote split between the Liberals and the NDP increases in former NDP seats.

I would predict a CPC pickup in London-Fanshawe with the split.

I also would predict Belinda is not that safe in a very affluent riding with a close margin.

These are the ridings Rae would certainly pickup.

Ottawa-Centre, Barrie, Parkdale-High Park, and the three Hamilton seats.

Belinda not safe?

While I wish you were right in that I can't see it happening. She won by almost 5,000 votes even with the 'outrage' at her party switching.

All the Federalists in Quebec already vote Liberal? That is a joke right. The Conservatives got 24.6% of the vote in Quebec in January, the Liberals got 20.7%. Throw in the 7.5% and that probably approximate the total Federalist vote in Quebec. If Rae takes the Liberal vote up to 30% in Quebec that easily gives them an extra ten seats in the province.

[SamStranger]

lol The Liberals are soooo arogant it's hilarious. For starters, Bob Rae keeps talking about how Stephen Harper is "out of touch" with Canadians- but the polls show over 57% of people like him as Prime Minister, over Bob Rae and Ignattief. Man I hate Liberals.

[geoffrey]

These are the ridings Rae would certainly pickup.

Ottawa-Centre, Barrie, Parkdale-High Park, and the three Hamilton seats.

Ottawa-Centre... ok maybe. Barrie... possibly, though NDP support is really low there, I don't know how much will switch to the Liberals and how many affulent Barrieites will switch to the CPC as a result, outside chance.

Parkdale-High Park will like be where Kennedy runs whether leader or not, that will be a pickup for the Liberals almost no matter who wins.

Two Hamilton seats yes. They won't pickup Hamilton-Centre.... that's like a 13,000 vote gap, the NDP won that by a clear majority, don't see that often outside of Alberta.

Belinda not safe?

Don't know if you know much about Newmarket-Aurora, but it's a pretty affluent community. They will struggle with a party lead by a socialist... and perhaps they are tired of Belinda's antics. It all depends on who the CPC runs there. 5000 votes isn't much, it's only 2500 that need to switch. With a hated socialist leader of the Liberal party, you don't think that'd happen?

I really think you underestimate how much mainstream Ontario folks hate Bob Rae.

All the Federalists in Quebec already vote Liberal? That is a joke right. The Conservatives got 24.6% of the vote in Quebec in January, the Liberals got 20.7%. Throw in the 7.5% and that probably approximate the total Federalist vote in Quebec. If Rae takes the Liberal vote up to 30% in Quebec that easily gives them an extra ten seats in the province.

Most of the Conservatives support in Quebec comes from the soft nationalists. They want power but not neccessarily seperation. The CPC offers them that. The Federalists frown at such suggestions. I'm going to stand behind my statement that most Federalists already vote Liberal.