Spring Election just months away...

[SamStranger]

Theirs only two things that scare me about the next election.

1) The Liberals will form a weak minority government , and we'll have another election in a year.

2) The BLOC will win 50% + 1 and call a referendum.

Now the Tories are in a bad spot. In the last election, all the heat was against the Liberals for all their corruption- so the momentum swung from the Grits to the the Conservatives. This election, with a new leader, the Liberals are gonna try to say "we learned our lesson, we cleaned up, we got a new leader- give us back the government". The NDP is gonna say "the tories cut womens programs and literacy, and contined to subsidize the big oil companies...blah, blah". The BLoc is gonna say "The tories promised to fix the fiscal inbalance but they didnt. They scrapped Kyoto..." So right now it seems the Opposition have a slight upperhand in the next election.

But then Stephen Harper can say this: "We cut the GST like we promised, we gave families $100 a month like we promised. We gave $40 billion dollars more in health care to reduce wait times, we tried to pass tougher crime bills but the opposition stopped us. We tried to pass the Accountability act but the Liberal Senate slowed it down".

Polls show it could go either way between the Tories and Liberals. Which way do you think it will go?

[cybercoma]

Where's the option for NDP majority? It's going to happen. Jack Layton is going to jam the airways, both radio and television, with propaganda on election day. Those who see his face on television that day will be hypnotized by the 'stache. Vote NDP! Vote NDP! Vote NDP! Will be ringing in everyone's head.

It's going to happen. Oh yes....oh yes.

*insert pic of monopoly guy*

[SamStranger]

Where's the option for NDP majority? It's going to happen. Jack Layton is going to jam the airways, both radio and television, with propaganda on election day. Those who see his face on television that day will be hypnotized by the 'stache. Vote NDP! Vote NDP! Vote NDP! Will be ringing in everyone's head.

It's going to happen. Oh yes....oh yes.

*insert pic of monopoly guy*

lol!!! I laughed my ass off after I read that.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Polls show it could go either way between the Tories and Liberals. Which way do you think it will go?

I think the Conservtives have the advantage with the way the polls are now.

The Conservatives have much more control over the timing of the election than any one of the other parties. The Conservatives have tons of money that they can spend on pre-election advertising.

Harper proved himself to be a shrewd poltiical tactician in the last election.

[geoffrey]

Polls show it could go either way between the Tories and Liberals. Which way do you think it will go?

I think the Conservtives have the advantage with the way the polls are now.

The Conservatives have much more control over the timing of the election than any one of the other parties. The Conservatives have tons of money that they can spend on pre-election advertising.

Harper proved himself to be a shrewd poltiical tactician in the last election.

Your right in one regard, the CPC has a massive war chest. The Liberals may still be in debt... the NDP has lost many endorsements.

[B. Max]

2) The BLOC will win 50% + 1 and call a referendum.

I'd like to be able to vote for the block.

[jdobbin]

I'd say a Conservative minority if the election were held today. In January, a new Liberal leader will be in place. If Igntatieff or Dion, we'll see how they perform in Parliament. If Rae, we might see a bye-election *before* a spring election. Hard to say though. They might not have enough support to change the results of the last election.

I think the Conservatives might have a massive war chest but how they spend it will be telling. They might try using it in Quebec to no effect.

Just a look at the U.S. can show what a massive chest of money can do to get your people elected. Nothing if the polls are against you.

Still, I say a Conservative minority unless they do something incredible to attract Quebec and urban Toronto votes that pushes them into majority status.

Beyond six months, who can say?

[watching&waiting]

I reallly do not think that an election will be caled until next fall. The Liberals as has been pointed out are still in debt and it looks like they may well go even deeper in to debt. No matter what leader they choose, that leader will need a lot of time to try and unite the party and find common grounds on things to run an election on. If they hurry then they will loose big time.

The NDP has lost alot of their industrial root backing and they will not be able to spend properly on an election this spring, so I would think that they will hold off as well.

The Bloq is ready to go when ever, but they would rather have the Liberal party again in scandelouus issues in Quebec, so they can gain seats. They know that the Liberals can not go long with out a scandel happening and the Bloq's choice for elections would be right after things get stirred up again.

The CPC proabbly will want an election in the spring as they would like to get the chance at the majority government. They have left enough issues out there to be able to make the Liberals the ones who have held up many things that the public supports and wanted done asap. Also depending on the leader of the Liberals, it will be a campagne that will address the short comings of eithe Rae or Iggy. Either one will have their feet turned to the fire and for good reasons. I personally think Iggy would break under the pressure and Rae will melt some what, when the hard questions are asked of them. Since the CPC are the only ones who can really enginerr the date and time on thier own choosing, the others will have to gang up and eachones timetable will not necessarily be the same.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Bloq is ready to go when ever, but they would rather have the Liberal party again in scandelouus issues in Quebec, so they can gain seats. They know that the Liberals can not go long with out a scandel happening and the Bloq's choice for elections would be right after things get stirred up again.

The CPC proabbly will want an election in the spring as they would like to get the chance at the majority government. They have left enough issues out there to be able to make the Liberals the ones who have held up many things that the public supports and wanted done asap. Also depending on the leader of the Liberals, it will be a campagne that will address the short comings of eithe Rae or Iggy. Either one will have their feet turned to the fire and for good reasons. I personally think Iggy would break under the pressure and Rae will melt some what, when the hard questions are asked of them. Since the CPC are the only ones who can really enginerr the date and time on thier own choosing, the others will have to gang up and eachones timetable will not necessarily be the same.

You make some good points. But your conclusion doesn't follow from what you say. If the Conservatives and the bloc want an election in the spring, we'll see one in the spring. If the bloc see the Liberals and Conservatives splitting the federalist vote in Quebec we will see a vote in the Spring...

[Figleaf]

The best thing for the Conservatives is that the government falls before they roll out the treat-homosexuals-differently laws.

The worst thing for the Liberals is if Iggy gets chosen.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The best thing for the Conservatives is that the government falls before they roll out the treat-homosexuals-differently laws.

The worst thing for the Liberals is if Iggy gets chosen.

They won't roll out any "treat-homosexuals-differently" laws. Just more *scary* *scary* *scary* from the Harper haters.

Harper has to quiet the socons in his caucus. That's why he will ask Parliament in a free vote if it wants to re-open the debate on SSM. The vote will fail. The socons will have had their day, everybody will be happy. This is exactly the way Mulroney handled abortion with the socons in his caucus. SSM is here to stay.

The so-called follow-up legislation that was rumoured to be coming wouldn't treat anybody differently. It just wouldn't force practitioners of faith to perform marriages if it is against their beliefs. The right to get married isn't the right to force somebody to marry you against their wishes...

[scribblet]

This parliament has ceased to function, nothing isactually getting done and everything is mere posturing for the coming election.

I have an idea that Harper might allow a defeat on a confidence motion between now and Xmas to precipitate an election, what with the Libs half way between first and second, leader-wise. In which case they would have to go into a two minute drill to select a leader and sign up candidates (which is very very problematic until they actually have a leader), and solidify an election platform which appears to be a complete muddle right now e.g.:

Do they support the Quebec 'Nation" notion.

Do they support the War on Terror/ Al Quaeda/Taliban?

If Kyoto, do they support a Carbon Tax?

Given the new study that shows obesity has caused N. Americans to need more gas to haul their fat buns around, do they support a Fat Tax?

Are they soft on crime/criminals or just soft in the head - their current reasoning seems to be that new prisons are too expensive to bother, so we should just let criminals run amok.

What would they do with the current revenue surpluses of $17 Billion? Taxcuts to the people who paid them or more spend, spend, spend!!!

Meanwhile, Harper is getting ready for an election; he is positioning the party and setting the Libs up on Crime Bills and Accountability Bills, currently stalled in an 'un-elected, Liberal appointed, obstructionist' Senate.

He can now define them as taxpayer money spendin' an' a squandrin', bureaucracy buildin', security neglectin', Taliban luvin', separatist suckups. By the time the Libs and their new leader actually get into the race, he'lll have them on the ropes. (well, I hope) This is looking good, I just hope a winter election isn't called again or I'll miss the durn thing.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I think the chances for a spring election are very poor. Harper will not have seen any polling data to lead him to believe he could form a majority, so the government won't head down that path willingly. The Liberals need some more time to put their leader into a seat in the Commons if they need to. The NDP need to seek alternative financing options and the Bloc will be more worried about internal problems to be real excited about that option.

By fall the Liberals will be in better position with a newly installed leader, but depending on who that leader is will determine the start tyime for the next election. It will take some effort on the part of the Conservatives to formulate an attack plan specific to the new leader. This next election will be about leadership and who is best able to provide it.

[scribblet]

The Liberals need some more time to put their leader into a seat in the Commons if they need to. The NDP need to seek alternative financing options and the Bloc will be more worried about internal problems to be real excited about that option.

Right, so that is why Harper should want a spring election, before the other parties can get their act together.

[jdobbin]

This parliament has ceased to function, nothing isactually getting done and everything is mere posturing for the coming election.

Harper is free to call an election now if he wants. Otherwise, he is contradicting what he said when he was in opposition about how the opposition shouldn't sit on its hands when it came to legislation.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The Liberals need some more time to put their leader into a seat in the Commons if they need to. The NDP need to seek alternative financing options and the Bloc will be more worried about internal problems to be real excited about that option.

Right, so that is why Harper should want a spring election, before the other parties can get their act together.

Harper wants a majority, but not fool enough to risk his position by calling an election that will not provide him with what he wants. He already has power, so retaining his position yields no benefit and therefore it does not warrant the risk involved. Harper will call an election when he thinks his party will gain a majority but not before.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

This parliament has ceased to function, nothing isactually getting done and everything is mere posturing for the coming election.

Harper is free to call an election now if he wants. Otherwise, he is contradicting what he said when he was in opposition about how the opposition shouldn't sit on its hands when it came to legislation.

Things are different now, because the shoe is on the other foot. What happened to his involvement in the Alberta Firewall? He handed that hot potatoe off to the nearest person when the opportunity to take federal power presented itself. This defines him as an opportunist. Its all about what works for Steve. Look at his government and the way he "handles" his Ministers. They can stay in his line or enjoy a seat outside of party caucus, its all about Steve.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Things are different now, because the shoe is on the other foot. What happened to his involvement in the Alberta Firewall? He handed that hot potatoe off to the nearest person when the opportunity to take federal power presented itself. This defines him as an opportunist. Its all about what works for Steve. Look at his government and the way he "handles" his Ministers. They can stay in his line or enjoy a seat outside of party caucus, its all about Steve.

Your objections to Harper in this post are baffling.

The 'firewall' letter is all about strengthening Alberta's position in the federation. Replacing the RCMP with an Alberta Provincial Police force, forming an Alberta pension plan and collecting Alberta income taxes separately are the main components from the firewall letter. These are all pretty shrewd plans, but they are the job of an Alberta Premier to institue NOT the Prime Minister.

He ran for the leadership of a Federal party. Why would he push the agenda that falls in the realm of provincial responsibilities? This defines him as an opportunist????

It's all about what works for him? Hmmmm, that is politics. Moral victories are for chumps. Preston Manning took the high ground in the 1997 election and missed out on holding Chretien to a minority as a result.

Harper's Cabinet is disciplined and speak with one voice. There is nothing wrong with that.

It's all about Steve because he earned it. He ran a smart, disciplined campaign. His Cabinet ministers are publicly respectful of him. Nobody knows what goes on in the Cabinet room. Cabinet secrecy exists for a reason. A disciplined government speaks with a unified voice.

These are virtues for Harper which will help him win over swing voters...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Things are different now, because the shoe is on the other foot. What happened to his involvement in the Alberta Firewall? He handed that hot potatoe off to the nearest person when the opportunity to take federal power presented itself. This defines him as an opportunist. Its all about what works for Steve. Look at his government and the way he "handles" his Ministers. They can stay in his line or enjoy a seat outside of party caucus, its all about Steve.

Your objections to Harper in this post are baffling.

The 'firewall' letter is all about strengthening Alberta's position in the federation. Replacing the RCMP with an Alberta Provincial Police force, forming an Alberta pension plan and collecting Alberta income taxes separately are the main components from the firewall letter. These are all pretty shrewd plans, but they are the job of an Alberta Premier to institue NOT the Prime Minister.

He ran for the leadership of a Federal party. Why would he push the agenda that falls in the realm of provincial responsibilities? This defines him as an opportunist????

It's all about what works for him? Hmmmm, that is politics. Moral victories are for chumps. Preston Manning took the high ground in the 1997 election and missed out on holding Chretien to a minority as a result.

Harper's Cabinet is disciplined and speak with one voice. There is nothing wrong with that.

It's all about Steve because he earned it. He ran a smart, disciplined campaign. His Cabinet ministers are publicly respectful of him. Nobody knows what goes on in the Cabinet room. Cabinet secrecy exists for a reason. A disciplined government speaks with a unified voice.

These are virtues for Harper which will help him win over swing voters...

Perhaps baffling to you, not to me. While he partakes in snipes against the feds when he is not there he belittles those who practice that while he is there. You see to think that Harper came up with that letter all by himself. Let me tell you now that those ideas are far from new and not Harpers creation at all. The actual point was that he can speak out of both sides of his mouth at the same time. He ran for the leadership of his chosen party in a federal context, yet he ran partly within the framework of empowering the provinces did he not?

Moral victories are for chumps? Does that mean that all people seeking moral victories are chumps too? I am not sure that Canadians would choose to support a politician who does not seek moral victories. I thought Harper ran on ethics as well, how does your support for him play into that?

Harper is Harper, and so is HIS government. It is all about Steve. So who will Canadians blame for things when they go wrong? His cabinet ministers or Steve? He got what he deserves, a minority government. He will get nothing more from Canadians than that. By the way, Harper reasonates like Trudeau, you either loved him or hated him. There are no swing voters in this regard.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Perhaps baffling to you, not to me. While he partakes in snipes against the feds when he is not there he belittles those who practice that while he is there. You see to think that Harper came up with that letter all by himself. Let me tell you now that those ideas are far from new and not Harpers creation at all. The actual point was that he can speak out of both sides of his mouth at the same time. He ran for the leadership of his chosen party in a federal context, yet he ran partly within the framework of empowering the provinces did he not?

Moral victories are for chumps? Does that mean that all people seeking moral victories are chumps too? I am not sure that Canadians would choose to support a politician who does not seek moral victories. I thought Harper ran on ethics as well, how does your support for him play into that?

Harper is Harper, and so is HIS government. It is all about Steve. So who will Canadians blame for things when they go wrong? His cabinet ministers or Steve? He got what he deserves, a minority government. He will get nothing more from Canadians than that. By the way, Harper reasonates like Trudeau, you either loved him or hated him. There are no swing voters in this regard.

Who has he belittled for practicing that?

Never said that Harper came up with the letter all by himself.

He was a private citizen when he wrote the letter. He never advocated two positions on the topic simultaneously.

How did he "run the party within the context of empowering the provinces"?

What moral victories did Chretien ever seek? He was tough-nosed and focused on winning. That's why he won.

Harper's government has been far more ethical and accountable than the Liberals they replaced.

You hope he will get nothing more than a minority.

Completely agreed that Harper is a polarizing figure. There are a few swing voters. The Conservatives picked up six points on the 2006 election over 2004. Two or three more and they will be in majority territory...

[SamStranger]

Well, whether their is a spring election or not- Harper is going to come under some heat about the GST...

During the last election, a poll showed that 75% of Canadians supported a GST cut because they believed it would lead to eventually abolishing it. Now, a few days ago Harper have a speech saying "The GST will not be cut again next year- We never said that. We said we would cut it by 1% in the first budget (which we did) and cut another 1% in 5 years"

Sadly, cutting it by 1% in 5 years won't bring us any closer to abolishing it. Now, I am a Tory and I supported Stephen Harper 100% in the last election- BUT... I think that instead of cutting $22 billion dollars worth of taxes and tax incentives (2006 spring budget) they should have cut the GST from 7% to 5%, then put foward leglislation that abolishes the GST by 2010. Make sense?? I like the idea of a tax credit of Tradespeople tools, juniour sports, $80 for shool book, transit pass credit... but a GST overhaul would be much better politically, and for all us hardworkers.

Any agreement?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Sadly, cutting it by 1% in 5 years won't bring us any closer to abolishing it. Now, I am a Tory and I supported Stephen Harper 100% in the last election- BUT... I think that instead of cutting $22 billion dollars worth of taxes and tax incentives (2006 spring budget) they should have cut the GST from 7% to 5%, then put foward leglislation that abolishes the GST by 2010. Make sense?? I like the idea of a tax credit of Tradespeople tools, juniour sports, $80 for shool book, transit pass credit... but a GST overhaul would be much better politically, and for all us hardworkers.

Any agreement?

I don't think getting rid of the GST altogether would be better politically than the targeted tax cuts Harper proposed. Look at all the howls for cutting the GST and cries for tax cuts in other areas.

Abolishing the GST altogether would take serious cuts in spending or increases in other taxes...

[jbg]

I reallly do not think that an election will be caled until next fall. The Liberals as has been pointed out are still in debt and it looks like they may well go even deeper in to debt. No matter what leader they choose, that leader will need a lot of time to try and unite the party and find common grounds on things to run an election on. If they hurry then they will loose big time.

*snip*

The CPC proabbly will want an election in the spring as they would like to get the chance at the majority government. They have left enough issues out there to be able to make the Liberals the ones who have held up many things that the public supports and wanted done asap. Also depending on the leader of the Liberals, it will be a campagne that will address the short comings of eithe Rae or Iggy. Either one will have their feet turned to the fire and for good reasons. I personally think Iggy would break under the pressure and Rae will melt some what, when the hard questions are asked of them. Since the CPC are the only ones who can really enginerr the date and time on thier own choosing, the others will have to gang up and eachones timetable will not necessarily be the same.

Then why don't you think a spring vote will happen? Can't the CPC find something, maybe the gun registry, that neither the Bloc, Liberals nor NDP can support, make it a confidence measure and drop the hammer that way?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Then why don't you think a spring vote will happen? Can't the CPC find something, maybe the gun registry, that neither the Bloc, Liberals nor NDP can support, make it a confidence measure and drop the hammer that way?

That's exactly what will happen. It will be interesting to see what that issue is. Whatever the issue is that will be the focus of the election. If Harper and crew pick an issue shrewdly they will deserve to win a majority

[jbg]

Then why don't you think a spring vote will happen? Can't the CPC find something, maybe the gun registry, that neither the Bloc, Liberals nor NDP can support, make it a confidence measure and drop the hammer that way?

That's exactly what will happen. It will be interesting to see what that issue is. Whatever the issue is that will be the focus of the election. If Harper and crew pick an issue shrewdly they will deserve to win a majority

Thanks for the information and the compliment. I know almost nothing about Canada, but am learning a bit here. Remember, we have fixed election dates, so there is no precipitating event the way there is in countries with the Westminister system.