A spring election.

[Ricki Bobbi]

From today's Toronto Star. Hebert made the case in the context of Michaelle Jean preventing a spring election, which is pretty doubtful. But part of it is a good read on why we'll probably go to the polls again sometime before next summer.

Duceppe, who has his finger on the pulse of Quebecers, knows that Harper's current policies could shift part of the Bloc's support to the Liberals in the next election. As things stand today — and contingent on the identity of the next Liberal leader — many Quebec voters might prefer to reconcile themselves with the party of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin than risk a Conservative majority government.

The prospect of a Liberal resurgence is an even larger concern for the NDP. Next spring, Jack Layton will have less incentive than Duceppe to support the budget. And while the Liberals would probably want to avoid a spring election, their new leader would be unlikely to want one of his first acts to be ensuring the safe passage of a Conservative budget.

Having experienced first hand the difficulties of going straight from a leadership victory to an election campaign, the Prime Minister himself might not be inclined to make it easy for any of the opposition parties to ensure the survival of his government beyond the end of next winter.

Given all that, it may be that Jean will end up being all that stands in the way of Canada heading to the polls, for the third time in less than five years, a little more than six months from now.

Seems like a pretty plausible scenario.

[August1991]

Link Here.

I personally think that the Tories would like to avoid an election. Every day they stay in power and govern competently puts them one step closer to a majority government.

As to Hebert's other points, the GG is commander in chief of Canada's army. Anybody close to the GG learns this very quickly. Jean has gone to every funeral of every soldier killed in Afghanistan. Her support for the military is only surprising to anyone who knows little about the office of the GG or about Canada's military history.

Hebert's other point about the BQ preferring an election before the federal Liberals under a new leader become a force in Quebec is interesting. Hebert is following the old line that the Liberals are the only federalist opposition in Quebec. I'm not so certain that's true. The election of 10 Conservative MPs in Quebec in the last federal election somehow signal a major change in Canadian politics. We'll have to wait for another election to see whether this change is truly significant.

So, will there will be a spring election? It's a minority government. If all three opposition parties vote against the government, then obviously yes. But I don't think the Tories will seek an election.

[jdobbin]

There won't be an election till Quebec has an election.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Hebert's other point about the BQ preferring an election before the federal Liberals under a new leader become a force in Quebec is interesting. Hebert is following the old line that the Liberals are the only federalist opposition in Quebec. I'm not so certain that's true. The election of 10 Conservative MPs in Quebec in the last federal election somehow signal a major change in Canadian politics. We'll have to wait for another election to see whether this change is truly significant.

So, will there will be a spring election? It's a minority government. If all three opposition parties vote against the government, then obviously yes. But I don't think the Tories will seek an election.

I hope you are right about the Conservatives staying viable in Quebec.

It will depend how much Afghanistan plays a role in the election.

I know the Conservatives will be ready for an election in the spring. I could see them using the budget as a springboard to another election. Not your typical *election budget*, but it will appeal to Conservative votes and potential swing voters.

They will dare the other parties to defeat them. If Harper really wants an election they will make the budget as unpalatable to the new Liberal leader as possible.

[August1991]

There won't be an election till Quebec has an election.

I wondered about that too. In Quebec, there's far more interest in the upcoming provincial election, likely in Spring 2007 but possibly in Fall 2007. The latest polls have the PQ and PLQ in a dead heat. I wondered whether Hebert thought Duceppe would want to go to the polls before Boisclair.

Another significant fact is that the BQ only got 42% of the Quebec vote in the 2006 federal election. (They got 48.9% in 2004.)

[jdobbin]

I wondered about that too. In Quebec, there's far more interest in the upcoming provincial election, likely in Spring 2007 but possibly in Fall 2007. The latest polls have the PQ and PLQ in a dead heat. I wondered whether Hebert thought Duceppe would want to go to the polls before Boisclair.

Another significant fact is that the BQ only got 42% of the Quebec vote in the 2006 federal election. (They got 48.9% in 2004.)

Both Liberals and Conservatives federally want to see Quebec go first so that both parties can contribute to defeating the PQ. It is possible that the feds might go first but the desire of thrashing the PQ so they can't be much help to the BQ in a federal election is hard to ignore.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Both Liberals and Conservatives federally want to see Quebec go first so that both parties can contribute to defeating the PQ. It is possible that the feds might go first but the desire of thrashing the PQ so they can't be much help to the BQ in a federal election is hard to ignore.

The Liberals are the only Federal party that doesn't have a good reason to want an election in the spring.

For the other three parties it is all about picking a time when they think the Liberals will be easiest to beat. That means an election in the spring.

[jbg]

Hebert's other point about the BQ preferring an election before the federal Liberals under a new leader become a force in Quebec is interesting. Hebert is following the old line that the Liberals are the only federalist opposition in Quebec. I'm not so certain that's true. The election of 10 Conservative MPs in Quebec in the last federal election somehow signal a major change in Canadian politics. We'll have to wait for another election to see whether this change is truly significant.

So, will there will be a spring election? It's a minority government. If all three opposition parties vote against the government, then obviously yes. But I don't think the Tories will seek an election.

I hope you are right about the Conservatives staying viable in Quebec.

It will depend how much Afghanistan plays a role in the election.

I know the Conservatives will be ready for an election in the spring. I could see them using the budget as a springboard to another election. Not your typical *election budget*, but it will appeal to Conservative votes and potential swing voters.

They will dare the other parties to defeat them. If Harper really wants an election they will make the budget as unpalatable to the new Liberal leader as possible.

I suspect the Conservatives pick up 2-5 more in Quebec next election. I agree that their competent government helps them everywhere except, maybe, 416.

[watching&waiting]

I do not think it will matter who the leader of the liberals will be, the party is so fractued that it will take a year at least to bring the party under some kind of unity. To go into an election without a unified party, would be a mistake of hue proportions. Mind you the Bloq could see that as its way to do the liberal the most damage, but would risk driving the federalist votes all to CPC, and that would definitely give them a majority. The liberals would even risk seats in the 416 areas if they go into election before uniting the party.

The NDP would like things to go before the libs are ready, in hopes of maybe getting some of the left support that the Libs would lose. But I do not think that is anything more then a pipe dream of Laytons, as he has painted himself in a far far out left field position, that will not ring true with very many people. If he keeps going the way he has, then I could see a NDP meltdown coming very soon.

[bradco]

I dont see an election in the spring...

First of all I dont think the polls are going to change enough to convince any party into an election. If there isn't anything to gain theres no point going for it..

I am tempted to think that after two quick elections the finances of all parties must be running low. In that kind of situation forcing an election is only good policy if gains can clearly be made.

I truly believe the Bloc will wait for the provincial election....their main goal is separation and that can only be achieved by winning the provincial election so all the resources will be focused on that.

If Afghanistan continues to be an issue I dont think the Conservatives will want to go because itll be tough to make gains in Quebec.

Does anyone think forcing an election, or being the party responsible for it is a bad idea? Especially when the polls are relatively similar to the last election. I for one would be willing to penalize any party that forces an election on us (and all the costs involved with one) when there is nothing to be gained from it. However, I am openly non-partisan and that effects my views towards playing politics instead of governing.

[BubberMiley]

But I do not think that is anything more then a pipe dream of Laytons, as he has painted himself in a far far out left field position, that will not ring true with very many people. If he keeps going the way he has, then I could see a NDP meltdown coming very soon.

Then again, in Canada, rabidly anti-war plays better than rabidly pro-war.

[jdobbin]

I suspect the Conservatives pick up 2-5 more in Quebec next election. I agree that their competent government helps them everywhere except, maybe, 416.

Quebec has them ranked low enough in the polls that they will be lucky to hold the seats they have now.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Quebec has them ranked low enough in the polls that they will be lucky to hold the seats they have now.

All the *experts* were saying the CPC would be shutout in Quebec last January.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Does anyone think forcing an election, or being the party responsible for it is a bad idea? Especially when the polls are relatively similar to the last election. I for one would be willing to penalize any party that forces an election on us (and all the costs involved with one) when there is nothing to be gained from it. However, I am openly non-partisan and that effects my views towards playing politics instead of governing.

Every time there is a minority government and there is talk of an election the concept of the electorate *punishing* a party for forcing an early election comes up.

There isn't one historical example were the *forcing* of an early election has ended up being a major issue in a campaign.

[jdobbin]

Bernard Lord forced an early election rather than have a bye-election and it was an issue and he lost.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Bernard Lord forced an early election rather than have a bye-election and it was an issue and he lost.

Lord's party lost two whole seats in that election.

Any other examples?

[August1991]

Quebec has them ranked low enough in the polls that they will be lucky to hold the seats they have now.

Conservatives are ahead of the federal Liberals in polls in Quebec, even after the summer.

More important though, regional polls show the Conservatives doing well in the Quebec City region and the Beauce. As elsewhere in Canada, the Conservatives do well outside large cities. Montreal is not Quebec.

[jdobbin]

Conservatives are ahead of the federal Liberals in polls in Quebec, even after the summer.

More important though, regional polls show the Conservatives doing well in the Quebec City region and the Beauce. As elsewhere in Canada, the Conservatives do well outside large cities. Montreal is not Quebec.

The BQ is ahead of both Liberals and Conservatives even after summer.

Another note: Pearson tried to force Diefenbaker to hand over power without an election when he had a minority in 1957. It was an issue. He lost.

[August1991]

The BQ is ahead of both Liberals and Conservatives even after summer.

The day Stephen Harper does better than Gilles Duceppe in a Quebec poll is the day I change August1991 to some other date, or even something to a real signal.

Another note: Pearson tried to force an election when Diefenbaker in power in 1957. It was an issue. He lost.

I agree. Governments that appear to force early elections generally don't win. Bourassa won in 1973 but lost in 1976. Peterson in Ontario lost. Martin lost in 2006. Chretien's streak is an aberration. Like Chretien himself.

----

To switch examples but stay on the same topic, I chose August1991 as a sobriquet on this forum because Mikhail Gorbachev was held captive in the Black Sea in August 1991 while Boris Yeltsin and others defended legitimate government in Moscow. When the coup failed and Gorbachev returned to Moscow, everything appeared to be the same. The Soviet Union was still intact and Gorbachev was still Chairman of the CPSU. Clearly though, the world had changed.

In 1995, when Chretien barely won the referendum, I had the same impression. Chretien too was like Gorbachev. Everything is back to normal, he thought. Indeed, Chretien still repeats that phrase. Eddie Goldenberg's book suggests that Paul Martin caused the sponsorship scandal because he overreacted.

I'll go further. Dion is the same, or maybe the people who support him. Dion and his supporters are like Gorbachev returning to Moscow in August 1991 and believing that it's back to business as usual. The Liberal Party, ruling party, Brezhnev and so on.

Well, it's not. Russia changed in August 1991 and Canada changed in 1995. Only fools like Gorbachev believe otherwise. (Fool? Yeltsin had Gorbachev stand on stage and read out the names of the coup-plotters - men Gorbachev had chosen personally.)

Ignatieff and Harper get this. Dion doesn't. I don't know about Rae.

Fortunately for us all, Canada is something greater than the federal Liberal Party. Just like Russia is something greater than the CPSU.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Another note: Pearson tried to force an election when Diefenbaker in power in 1957. It was an issue. He lost.

Pearson didn't try and force an election. Actually Diefenbaker took advantage of a rookie mistake made by Pearson to call the election in 1958. Pearson had the audacity to ask Diefenaker to return power to the Liberals without an election because of an economic downturn. Diefenbaker pounced on Pearson's arrogance and used a "classified" Liberal document from before the 1957 election showing the Liberals were expecting the economic downturn that came.

Sorry, try again for a case where forcing an early election has been a case in a Federal election.

[jdobbin]

I agree. Governments that appear to force early elections generally don't win. Bourassa won in 1973 but lost in 1976. Peterson in Ontario lost. Martin lost in 2006. Chretien's streak is an aberration. Like Chretien himself.

Fortunately for us all, Canada is something greater than the federal Liberal Party. Just like Russia is something greater than the CPSU.

There are numerous examples of minority governments and elections that come early. Often, the party that pulls the trigger pays a price. Canadians often like to give the minority government time to sink or swim.

The Liberal party is in much better shape after this election numbers-wise than they probably had a right to be.

Opposition parties often have to tough it out and it can nasty. I'm sure there will be a housecleaning after the leadership has been decided. I still don't know who would be the ideal leader of the bunch running. I do know there are a few who are running who I'd like to be a strong influence though.

[Ricki Bobbi]

There are numerous examples of minority governments and elections that come early. Often, the party that pulls the trigger pays a price. Canadians often like to give the minority government time to sink or swim.

If there are numerous examples provide one?

The Conservatives pulled the trigger in 1958 and won a massive majority. (Not defeated in the House, unlike 1980 and 2005).

The Liberals pulled the trigger in 1980 and won a massive majority.

The Conservatives pulled the trigger forcing the January 2006 election and won with a scary, scary, scary leader after 12 1/2 years in the wilderness.

Do you want the recent examples of leaders of *majority* governments getting paid off for forcing early elections too?

[jdobbin]

The Liberals in Ontario were defeated in 1990 for pulling the trigger in the election early.

[jbg]

Quebec has them ranked low enough in the polls that they will be lucky to hold the seats they have now.

All the *experts* were saying the CPC would be shutout in Quebec last January.

You must have read my fingers before I posted.

[jdobbin]

You must have read my fingers before I posted.

If the numbers in Quebec were higher, there may call for a breakthrough. There has been that type of increase. It might come but as the moment the polls are really static. In other words, they look like more of a repeat of the last election.