Canadian Political Polls

[BubberMiley]

Who really is the one posting personal attacks? Unless you see 'vindictive drivel' as a positive, non-personal statement.

Actually I think "vindictive drivel" would technically be a comment on the quality of your posts rather than your character.

See the difference?

But I see these poll results as indicative of how reluctant the Canadian public is of having Harper as its leader. Such soft support shows they would really rather vote for almost anyone else, given the opportunity. CPC power depends pretty much exclusively on the Liberals' disintegration. Even a small uptick in the overall perception of Dion's leadership skills would be catastrophic to the tories.

Edited December 20, 2007 by BubberMiley

[Michael Bluth]

Actually I think "vindictive drivel" would technically be a comment on the quality of your posts rather than your character.

See the difference?

Fair enough, but then I believe 'resident poll misrepresenter' is also a comment on the quality of the posts rather than his character. That difference is there in my posts as well, is it not?

But I see these poll results as indicative of how reluctant the Canadian public is of having Harper as its leader. Such soft support shows they would really rather vote for almost anyone else, given the opportunity. CPC power depends pretty much exclusively on the Liberals' disintegration. Even a small uptick in the overall perception of Dion's leadership skills would be catastrophic to the tories.

The canadian public is more disinclined to support Dion. We haven't had a party with really firm support in the country for four years now.

Things are so close now that a small downturn in the perception of Dion's leadership skills and/or a small uptick in the perception of Harper could lead to a CPC majority. Could it not?

[jdobbin]

Since you judge a 3-4% decline in Liberal numbers as a portent of coming electoral disaster on a biblical scale, what must you think of the latest Tory melt of 6%? Mulroney's indiscretions, global warming, execution of Canadians abroad and isotopes have conspired to whack your party with a decline which might in fact turn out to be a seismic shift towards the Official Opposition.

It has not been a great couple of weeks for the Tories. They'll probably hope for a boost from the GST drop on January 1 but it is possible that it will pass by unremarked. On December 30, the first by-election in Ontario must be called. Bob Rae will be in the thick of it. The Tories may choose to call all of Ontario's election (they space out to February) to mitigate possible Liberal victories every few weeks.

The Mulroney-Shreiber issue has a few more sessions in the ethics committee and we await what Harper's adviser recommends about the whole thing. Harper must be hoping that the adviser says no inquiry is needed.

[jdobbin]

But I see these poll results as indicative of how reluctant the Canadian public is of having Harper as its leader. Such soft support shows they would really rather vote for almost anyone else, given the opportunity. CPC power depends pretty much exclusively on the Liberals' disintegration. Even a small uptick in the overall perception of Dion's leadership skills would be catastrophic to the tories.

Dion after a year is still weak on the organizational and fundraising side. He has just finished re-organizing the office and with any luck for him, it will start the reforms needed in the present small donor/bottom up party operations that Chretien left Martin as the gift that keeps on giving.

Dion himself, in addition to sharpening his leadership skills, needs to find a way connect with the public. He may never have charisma but he does have strength in terms of decency. If he is regarded as clear and competent in his presentation, it will go a long way to changing perceptions. He will also need to appear to have several sharp members in his team in Parliament who are ready to take charge of key portfolios in the event of an election. In other words, he needs Rae, Kennedy, Garneau and Hall-Findlay and others to join Ignatieff on the front benches.

[Shakeyhands]

(jdobbin @ Dec 19 2007, 01:05 PM)

Latest poll on the leaders from Angus Reid.

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/286547

Dion is still having trouble connecting with the public.

You post it ten minutes after I pointed out that you ignored it for a few days?

Very convenient. Why not tell us why you didn't post it more quickly?

Even then you misrepresent it. It's a poll that shows the Liberals at an historic low in the horse race numbers.

'Latest poll on the leaders' indeed.

QUOTE(White Doors @ Dec 19 2007, 12:57 PM)

That Decima one doesn't look good though Mike. you must admit.

Yes, you are correct. However, it doesn't look as bad when considered with the Angus Reid poll ... you must admit.

Again, can't see you.

[Shakeyhands]

Dion after a year is still weak on the organizational and fundraising side. He has just finished re-organizing the office and with any luck for him, it will start the reforms needed in the present small donor/bottom up party operations that Chretien left Martin as the gift that keeps on giving.

Dion himself, in addition to sharpening his leadership skills, needs to find a way connect with the public. He may never have charisma but he does have strength in terms of decency. If he is regarded as clear and competent in his presentation, it will go a long way to changing perceptions. He will also need to appear to have several sharp members in his team in Parliament who are ready to take charge of key portfolios in the event of an election. In other words, he needs Rae, Kennedy, Garneau and Hall-Findlay and others to join Ignatieff on the front benches.

I have a feeling that if there is an election called, and people start to hear the message in the news cycle, that things will get better for Dion.

Having said that, he has a ways to go in the fundraising arena.

[jdobbin]

I have a feeling that if there is an election called, and people start to hear the message in the news cycle, that things will get better for Dion.

Having said that, he has a ways to go in the fundraising arena.

Some of the organizational problems in the head office have been as a result of a continuation of the leadership battles. I think some of the key people are starting to realize that infighting is not a luxury they can afford anymore now that the right is united. The leadership aspirations of some of the past candidates will be quashed if the whole party suffers a defeat. I think their main task will be to get elected in their ridings.

Likewise, the debts of candidates of the last leadership election is competing with party fundraising. The party needs to dig deep to find a way to expand the small donor base.

[Wild Bill]

I have a feeling that if there is an election called, and people start to hear the message in the news cycle, that things will get better for Dion.

Having said that, he has a ways to go in the fundraising arena.

I dunno, it just doesn't look that way to me. It's been my experience that voters aren't looking for the nicest guy but rather the most competent. A leader has to be seen as tough enough to do unpleasant but necessary things. Being too nice makes you look weak.

If looking nice is all that Dion can trumpet then he's not likely to get voted PM. Such personalities can do well as deputies but not as sheriffs.

As for reforming their fundraising machinery, why should Harper give them the time? It's not as if the Libs were generous in a similar vein to Harper in the past. Do unto others as they have done unto you seems to be the motto on Parliament Hill.

JMHO

[Wild Bill]

It has not been a great couple of weeks for the Tories. They'll probably hope for a boost from the GST drop on January 1 but it is possible that it will pass by unremarked. On December 30, the first by-election in Ontario must be called. Bob Rae will be in the thick of it. The Tories may choose to call all of Ontario's election (they space out to February) to mitigate possible Liberal victories every few weeks.

The Mulroney-Shreiber issue has a few more sessions in the ethics committee and we await what Harper's adviser recommends about the whole thing. Harper must be hoping that the adviser says no inquiry is needed.

I just can't believe that Mulroney's problems will stick to Harper for any length of time. After all, it was Harper and Reform that nearly destroyed Mulroney's party. Despite the best efforts of the CBC anyone over 30 would have to have lived in a hole in the ground all these years not to see the disconnect.

The same with the reactor problems. Whenever such incidents crop up the immediate reaction is to blame the party in power but as time goes on the effect wears off. Some would like to believe that voters start to look more closely and realize that it was more the fault of older governments that set up or appointed the management of an institution but more likely voters just have short memories.

When you really think about it, most Canadians have come to expect that ALL politicos are incompetent! That's just "situation normal"! The only thing that can get us to carry a long-term grudge is out and out criminality or a severe economic shock, like Mulroney introducing the GST immediately before a very painful recession or Adscam, which is still a far stronger meme then the Libs would like to accept.

I'll bet 2 beer that after Christmas the polls will bounce back in Harper's favour to the levels of a month or so ago. Still not great but enough to ensure a stronger minority than he has now. We should not forget that polls don't show us the "incumbent" effect, where when an election is actually called voters have to take a close look at their choices. Harper might start with only 39% or so but if no party is actually attractive people will likely hold their nose and vote for him as the least "smelly" option. As a people we vote against what we see as a poorer choice, since we rarely have some one who actually inspires us! Whether or not you liked their politics our successful leaders these past few decades have been Trudeau, Mulroney, Klein, Harris and such. I don't include Chretien because he merely had the advantage of a fractured opposition. The names I cited garnered respectable percentages of the popular vote, at least compared to Clark, Turner, Campbell, Miller, Ives or any other of the leaders who let their advisers mold their public image into something "common denominator" and like something from a marketing firm.

Voters are at least smart enough to know that when they're given a suspiciously loud sizzle there IS NO steak!

[jdobbin]

As for reforming their fundraising machinery, why should Harper give them the time? It's not as if the Libs were generous in a similar vein to Harper in the past. Do unto others as they have done unto you seems to be the motto on Parliament Hill.

You mean Harper will call the election himself in January?

[jdobbin]

I'll bet 2 beer that after Christmas the polls will bounce back in Harper's favour to the levels of a month or so ago. Still not great but enough to ensure a stronger minority than he has now. We should not forget that polls don't show us the "incumbent" effect, where when an election is actually called voters have to take a close look at their choices. Harper might start with only 39% or so but if no party is actually attractive people will likely hold their nose and vote for him as the least "smelly" option. As a people we vote against what we see as a poorer choice, since we rarely have some one who actually inspires us! Whether or not you liked their politics our successful leaders these past few decades have been Trudeau, Mulroney, Klein, Harris and such. I don't include Chretien because he merely had the advantage of a fractured opposition. The names I cited garnered respectable percentages of the popular vote, at least compared to Clark, Turner, Campbell, Miller, Ives or any other of the leaders who let their advisers mold their public image into something "common denominator" and like something from a marketing firm.

I've said for more than two years that I expect the Tories will be re-elected with a minority.

In over two years, however, the Tories have averaged 36%. It is enough to win a minority but not a majority if the Liberals stay in the 29% vicinity. At the moment, they are in a statistical tie with the Liberal numbers actually above the Tory ones.

If Harper wins another minority, it will be how own future that will come into question since he has led the party in a few elections. If a minority is the best he can do, he will probably be challenged in a leadership vote. Dion will also face a challenge if another Tory minority is elected.

[Wild Bill]

You mean Harper will call the election himself in January?

Maybe, but it's more likely that he will just make Dion wuss out on so many non-confidence bills that the rest of the Liberals will force Dion to take the government down.

[Wild Bill]

I've said for more than two years that I expect the Tories will be re-elected with a minority.

In over two years, however, the Tories have averaged 36%. It is enough to win a minority but not a majority if the Liberals stay in the 29% vicinity. At the moment, they are in a statistical tie with the Liberal numbers actually above the Tory ones.

If Harper wins another minority, it will be how own future that will come into question since he has led the party in a few elections. If a minority is the best he can do, he will probably be challenged in a leadership vote. Dion will also face a challenge if another Tory minority is elected.

You may be proven right! Neither party has an inspiring leader. The scary thing for the Tories is that Harper has suppressed the rest of his caucus to the point where none of them have any public image towards leadership. The Libs have the same gang that originally ran with Dion and also, if it looks like they might actually win there are a lot of other big party figures that would jump back into the race.

If there were a draft Manning campaign I wonder what would happen...

[jdobbin]

Maybe, but it's more likely that he will just make Dion wuss out on so many non-confidence bills that the rest of the Liberals will force Dion to take the government down.

I suppose that Harper could try to push a non-confidence motion in January but with the polls the way they are, he can't be entirely sure of the outcome.

[jdobbin]

You may be proven right! Neither party has an inspiring leader. The scary thing for the Tories is that Harper has suppressed the rest of his caucus to the point where none of them have any public image towards leadership. The Libs have the same gang that originally ran with Dion and also, if it looks like they might actually win there are a lot of other big party figures that would jump back into the race.

If there were a draft Manning campaign I wonder what would happen...

I think you might be right about how front and center Harper is.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/286823

I recently received a letter from our Glorious Leader Stephen Harper.

Oops, did I say "Glorious Leader"? I meant to write "Prime Minister" Stephen Harper.

I am a little confused, I suppose, because in his letter Prime Minister Harper writes, "The Conservative Party is the people's party. And the Conservative government is the people's government."

Now, I don't know about you, but terms like "people's party" and "people's government" immediately conjure up images in my mind of red-scarved multitudes mindlessly and obediently cheering the "people's" leader.

Not that I am suggesting, of course, the Conservative Party – er, I mean the People's Party – is attempting to create a personality cult around the Prime Minister. After all, in order to have a personality cult, the leader actually has to have, well, you know, a personality.

However, it does seem clear the party is actively trying to generate some sort of mystical aura around the person of Stephen Harper.

How else do you explain the special 2008 calendar I recently received from the party as a gift for my "loyal support"?

Now, most gift calendars from politicians feature photos of Parliament Hill, the Peace Tower or maybe some prairie wheat fields.

This calendar features almost nothing but Stephen Harper.

For January it's a photo of Stephen Harper getting off a plane; February features Harper posing next to a guy in a snowman costume; March shows off Harper in a turtleneck; in June there's a shot of him looking studious in his office, and on it goes, month after month.

In other words, for virtually every day in 2008, owners of this calendar can gaze upon a smiling, benevolent, wise-looking Harper. (The only reprieve will come in May, which inexplicably features a photo of the Queen.)

Why is the Conservative brain trust pushing this Harper-centric strategy?

Harper in every page of the Conservative calendar?

He needs to get his ministers front and center if for no other reason to give him cover on issues such as the economy and big issues like isotopes.

[Oleg Bach]

I think you might be right about how front and center Harper is.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/286823

Harper in every page of the Conservative calendar?

He needs to get his ministers front and center if for no other reason to give him cover on issues such as the economy and big issues like isotopes.

When there is not one Canadian report about water boarding - or on single protest- that means that Harper will torture them -----------------------or you and I - not a good scene.

[Alexandra]

I think you might be right about how front and center Harper is.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/286823

Harper in every page of the Conservative calendar?

He needs to get his ministers front and center if for no other reason to give him cover on issues such as the economy and big issues like isotopes.

If you knew that the only reason Gerry Nichols received the letter and 2008 calendar from Stephen Harper is that Gerry Nichols is a member of the Conservative party and lives in Stephen Harper's riding would you still think how front and center the P.M. is in his 'riding's' calendar JD?

Also, Gerry Nichols in his little column neglected to tell you and whoever else reads his shlock that every member of the party received letters and 2008 calendars from their LOCAL Members of Parliament.

Would you like me to send you a copy of each and every individual calendar, letter, etc. sent by the CPC MP's to the people in their ridings? Or, JD would you agree that not everything (anything) written or spoken as an opinion piece in every media source in the world is to be taken literally?

`

[CandianWatcher]

I believe a Harper majority would be a disaster for this country. With Harper as the head of the "Conservative" party the party itself has left the Red Tories without a home. Like myself, most red Tories find that the party Harper leads is too far right and radical for our comfort.

The Progressive Canadian Party was formed in 2003 in reaction to the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties. Now Jim Love, former Progressive Canadian Party president, jumped ship to the Liberals in mid-November. Love's reason for jumping to the Liberals, Dionsvision is the same as the Red Tories,

More and more Red Tories are going to find a home in the Liberal party as under Dion the Liberals of today hold the Progressive Conservative ideals we’ve had for years.

The defection of some major Tories to the Liberals has been overlooked by the "old boy netowork" news media in this country. I do not expect the Conservatives under Harper to get a majority government.

[jdobbin]

If you knew that the only reason Gerry Nichols received the letter and 2008 calendar from Stephen Harper is that Gerry Nichols is a member of the Conservative party and lives in Stephen Harper's riding would you still think how front and center the P.M. is in his 'riding's' calendar JD?

Also, Gerry Nichols in his little column neglected to tell you and whoever else reads his shlock that every member of the party received letters and 2008 calendars from their LOCAL Members of Parliament.

Would you like me to send you a copy of each and every individual calendar, letter, etc. sent by the CPC MP's to the people in their ridings? Or, JD would you agree that not everything (anything) written or spoken as an opinion piece in every media source in the world is to be taken literally?

You're right. I shouldn't take anything literally. And that is why I don't take what you say literally. I have no reason to believe you on this at all.

[cybercoma]

I'm just wondering if anyone knows where the Rhino Party stands?

[Michael Bluth]

The defection of some major Tories to the Liberals has been overlooked by the "old boy netowork" news media in this country. I do not expect the Conservatives under Harper to get a majority government.

Who are those major Tories you speak about?

Surely not Jim Love and Tracey Parsons. The 'braintrust' of the Progressive Canadian party.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll. Missed it from Saturday.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...063a&k=6940

The federal Liberals are closing in on the lead Stephen Harper's Conservatives enjoy in public support, with the Grits actually surging ahead of the Tories in both Ontario and Quebec, a new national poll has found.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, said support for the Liberals climbed four points to 33 per cent since the last survey two weeks ago, while Conservative support remained at 35 per cent. The NDP and Green parties each slipped one point to 15 per cent and eight per cent respectively.

Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid, said the poll continues the recent trend of the Liberals and Conservatives moving closer together in public support. The Tory lead has shrunk to two points from 14 as recently as the second week in November. The result puts the two parties in a statistical dead heat as the country heads into another year of precarious minority government and a possible election.

The Liberals have moved ahead of the Tories in both Quebec and Ontario.

[Michael Bluth]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll. Missed it from Saturday.

Conservatives lead Liberals nationally....

[capricorn]

When pollsters call me in mid December, I tell them I will vote for all of the parties in the next election. The Christmas dust will settle in a couple of weeks then we can talk turkey. Turkey?? I want some...with cranberry sauce please.

[jdobbin]

When pollsters call me in mid December, I tell them I will vote for all of the parties in the next election. The Christmas dust will settle in a couple of weeks then we can talk turkey. Turkey?? I want some...with cranberry sauce please.

Sounds like they tossed out your information as a spoiled response.

This information from Ipsos was certainly interesting.

in Ontario, Liberal support was 43 per cent, giving the party a 10-point lead over the Tories. The Liberals were up three points from the last survey, while the Conservatives dropped three points. The NDP slipped two points to 13 per cent, and the Green party fell one point to six per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois maintained its lead with 31 per cent support. But that was down seven points from the last survey. The big winner was the Liberal party, which gained seven points since the last survey, to 27 per cent. The Conservatives also saw their support rise by three points to 23 per cent.

Bricker said the results in Ontario and Quebec give the Conservatives little to cheer about.

"The bouncing around (of the numbers in Quebec) is bad news for the Tories," he said. "Even worse news for the Tories, however, is the 10-point gap in Ontario because the Liberals have basically been able to form governments with that type of gap in Ontario working in their favour."

Bricker said he believes fallout from the Schreiber-Mulroney affair has had more of an impact on Tory party fortunes than some people think.

"There has been this unmitigated, steady stream of information about negative things that happened in a previous Conservative government. I think it really has affected the Tory brand,"Bricker said.

Edited December 25, 2007 by jdobbin