Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest CTV/Globe and Mail Strategic Counsel poll.

The Greens have had a big uptick in the polls.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a tight race but the Green Party has shown a slight boost in support, according to a new poll.

The latest Strategic Counsel survey, conducted between Dec. 6 and Dec. 9 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, found that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have managed to take a strong lead.

When respondents were asked who they would vote for, the results showed little difference from a few weeks ago (percentage-point change from a Nov. 12-13 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 32 per cent (-2)

* Liberals: 29 per cent (-2)

* NDP: 16 per cent (same)

* Green Party: 13 per cent (+5)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)

The last sizable gap between Canada's two largest political parties was in April, when a Strategic Counsel poll had the Conservatives at 36 per cent support and the Liberals at 30 per cent.

Since that time, they have remained within at least five percentage points, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

However, the Conservatives appear to be losing ground in Quebec and are now slightly trailing the Liberals, although the Bloc remains a dominant force (percentage-point change from a Nov. 12-13 poll in brackets):

* Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-3)

* Liberals: 20 per cent (+4)

* Conservatives: 18 per cent (-7)

* NDP: 11 per cent (+3)

* Green Party: 11 per cent (+3)

The Tories are below the Liberals in Quebec. The BQ is still solidly in the lead but are down a bit. Greens are tied with the NDP.

This poll might have had better results for the Liberals had they not slipped as much as they've done in Ontario.

* Liberals: 37 per cent (-7)

* Conservatives: 33 per cent (+3)

* NDP: 17 per cent (same)

* Green Party: 13 per cent (+4)

The pollster believes the conference in Bali is probably responsible for Green support growing.

[Fortunata]

The Liberals are clearly heading for their worst defeat in a century with those numbers.

Sure looks like it doesn't it? Oh wait, that was last week.

[Canadian Blue]

Yeah and the Green Party is going to win seats in the next election. This once again proves to me that polls are usually bullshit.

[jdobbin]

Yeah and the Green Party is going to win seats in the next election. This once again proves to me that polls are usually bullshit.

The Greens still need to consolidate support in certain ridings or hope to come up the middle in a few ridings. This is easier said than done.

[Canadian Blue]

I was attempting to be sarcastic. I have a feeling that Green Party support will dry up the next election, it seems more or less like a place for people to park their vote.

[jdobbin]

I was attempting to be sarcastic. I have a feeling that Green Party support will dry up the next election, it seems more or less like a place for people to park their vote.

I don't think their support is a fluke. I think they are starting to retain more of their support than the single digits we have seen in the past. The problem for them is that their vote is spread out right across the country and not concentrated in enough ridings to get them many seats.

[jbg]

I don't think their support is a fluke. I think they are starting to retain more of their support than the single digits we have seen in the past. The problem for them is that their vote is spread out right across the country and not concentrated in enough ridings to get them many seats.

A vote for Greens is still a wasted vote. Even if they manage one riding the MP will be powerless.

What's the point of voting for a fringe party? Try the Neo Rhinos {link).

[jdobbin]

Latest poll shows Canadians do not believe Mulroney.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071212/..._schreiber_poll

Only one in 10 Canadians believe Brian Mulroney is telling the truth about his business relationship with German-Canadian arms broker Karlheinz Schreiber, a new poll suggests.

Respondents were almost three times as likely to take the word of Schreiber, a controversial lobbyist who is wanted in Germany on charges of bribery, fraud and tax evasion, according to The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey released Wednesday.

The poll comes as Mulroney addresses a parliamentary committee Thursday to tell his side of the story in the decade-old Airbus controversy that involved allegations of kickbacks, an RCMP investigation and a libel settlement won by the former Tory prime minister.

The online survey of more than 1,000 respondents was conducted Dec. 4-10 while Schreiber was testifying at the televised House of Commons ethics committee.

"Neither individual enjoys strong credibility when it comes to statements about their relationship," said Bruce Anderson, president of Harris/Decima.

More than half - 51 per cent - of respondents said they don't believe Mulroney, with 39 per cent saying they don't know. Some 30 per cent said they don't believe Schreiber, compared with 27 per cent who believe his story and 43 per cent who don't know.

The survey found Quebecers the most skeptical: 38 per cent said they didn't believe Schreiber and 60 per cent said they didn't believe Mulroney.

[capricorn]

It should be kept in mind that this is an online poll. It would be interesting to know how many of those who answered the poll were not of voting age when Mulroney was PM because presumably they would not have been paying much attention to politics at the time. It's possible the opinions collected were formed based on current media reporting on Schreiber and his testimony. We'll see how the results of this online poll compare to the one done after Mulroney testifies.

Edited December 13, 2007 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

It should be kept in mind that this is an online poll. It would be interesting to know how many of those who answered the poll were not of voting age when Mulroney was PM because presumably they would not have been paying much attention to politics at the time. It's possible the opinions collected were formed based on current media reporting on Schreiber and his testimony. We'll see how the results of this online poll compare to the one done after Mulroney testifies.

I have expressed my concerns in regards to online polls a few times. However, my complaint is on how random the polls are.

[Michael Bluth]

Sure looks like it doesn't it? Oh wait, that was last week.

Actually if you looked at the results posted yesterday, instead of your odd fascination with trying to prove a point without evidence you would see that you made the smart mouth response to a poll with the Liberals at 29% nationally.

The Liberals are still heading for their worst defeat in a century with those numbers.

Keep up the relentless responses, but try and sprinkle them with a little bit of truth.

[Fortunata]

Actually if you looked at the results posted yesterday, instead of your odd fascination with trying to prove a point without evidence you would see that you made the smart mouth response to a poll with the Liberals at 29% nationally.

The Liberals are still heading for their worst defeat in a century with those numbers.

Keep up the relentless responses, but try and sprinkle them with a little bit of truth.

What truth? It's your opinion vs. my opinion. Opinions aren't truth they are speculation. Maybe we could get Steve's stylist psychick in for a future-telling? Settle it once and for all. What do you think?

[Michael Bluth]

What truth? It's your opinion vs. my opinion. Opinions aren't truth they are speculation.

The poll result had Liberal support at 29%. Not opinion, fact.

Try supporting your opinions with facts.

[jdobbin]

Few Canadian believe Mulroney, most don't want an inquiry.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...18?hub=Politics

new poll suggests most Canadians don't want a public inquiry into Brian Mulroney's business dealings with Karlheinz Schreiber.

The resistance comes despite deep misgivings about the former prime minister's story and the propriety of his relationship with the German-Canadian arms lobbyist.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests only 21 per cent of Canadians think Mulroney was telling the truth when he testified last week about $225,000 in cash he received from Schreiber.

Moreover, two-thirds of those surveyed felt the relationship between the two was inappropriate.

Nevertheless, only 32 per cent wanted to see a public inquiry delve into the minute details of the affair; 52 per cent said they would rather avoid that spectacle.

This is probably enough for Harper to call off an inquiry even if there is a recommendation for one.

Edited December 19, 2007 by jdobbin

[jbg]

Few Canadian believe Mulroney, most don't want an inquiry.

That would break your heart.

[Michael Bluth]

This is probably enough for Harper to call off an inquiry even if there is a recommendation for one.

There probably won't even be a recommendation for an inquiry.

The public doesn't want one. The recommendation would come from the Justice committee. Steph and Jack will probably 'direct' the findings of the committee against an inquiry.

Potential bullet dodged for all involved.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...19?hub=Politics

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have lost their big lead over the Liberals, plunging six percentage points in popular support in just one week.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey puts the Tories at 30 per cent support, in a statistical tie with the Liberals, who are up four points to 32 per cent.

Support for the Tories dropped across all regions and demographic groups.

The striking shift comes in the wake of several controversies which may be taking a toll on the governing party:

* Former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney's admission that he accepted cash-stuffed envelopes from arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber.

* Heavy criticism of Canada's position at the climate-change summit in Bali.

* The political fallout from a critical shortage of medical isotopes due to the shutdown of the Chalk River nuclear reactor.

It is a statistical tie once again. Quite the fall from 42% in the polls a month ago.

And next week, the by-elections begin with Bob Rae's being the first up.

[Michael Bluth]

Latest Angus Reid poll. Link

Interesting how our resident poll misrepresentor 'missed' this one. No, not interesting. Typical of the inability to find polls that reflect poorly on the Liberals.

Dion is still steering the good ship to a record defeat.

CPC - 33%

Liberals - 28%

NDP - 17%

Bloc - 10%

Green - 10%

A whopping 51 per cent of Canadians disapprove of Dion's performance.

[White Doors]

That Decima one doesn't look good though Mike. you must admit.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll on the leaders from Angus Reid.

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/286547

It's been a disappointing year – for the most part – for Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, veteran pollster Angus Reid says.

"If you look back at the springtime of the year he was sitting pretty ... and as we move to the end of the 2007 the big story is how badly Stephen Harper has dropped," the CEO of Angus Reid Strategies told the Toronto Star yesterday after releasing his polling firm's latest numbers showing the Conservatives with a slight lead over the Liberals.

Reid said with Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's lacklustre performance since winning his party's leadership just over a year ago, Harper should be soaring in the court of public opinion.

"This guy is now running a minus 20 in terms of political momentum, he is running a disapproval rate of 45 and the best he can do, notwithstanding all the problems with Dion and the Liberals, is eke out a little 5 (percentage) point lead over the Liberals," he said.

"I think Harper's own personality grates a lot of Canadians, who find him to be aloof. They can't find any warmth in this guy."

With just over a month to the second anniversary of the Tories' minority government, 33 per cent of Canadians currently support the Conservatives, compared with 36.3 per cent on election day and the party's high of 39 per cent in March.

The survey puts the Liberals second at 28 per cent, followed by the New Democrats at 17 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois and the Green party both at 10 per cent support nationally.

The online survey of survey 1,025 adult Canadians is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

"This has been a year in which we witnessed the political decline of Stephen Harper and it has been shrouded somewhat in the fog created by Dion's uneven performance as Liberal leader," Reid said.

"Dion has been stuck in a very negative position all year."

The poll shows Canadians are not particularly pleased with the either Harper or Dion.

It shows 41 per cent of those surveyed preferred neither one for the top political job.

"Canadians are not completely satisfied with either of the two main federal leaders," concluded the survey, which was conducted Dec. 13-14.

Dion is still having trouble connecting with the public.

The big surprise is how much Harper has dropped.

The public seems to be saying a plague on both your leaders.

[Michael Bluth]

Latest poll on the leaders from Angus Reid.

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/286547

Dion is still having trouble connecting with the public.

You post it ten minutes after I pointed out that you ignored it for a few days?

Very convenient. Why not tell us why you didn't post it more quickly?

Even then you misrepresent it. It's a poll that shows the Liberals at an historic low in the horse race numbers.

'Latest poll on the leaders' indeed.

That Decima one doesn't look good though Mike. you must admit.

Yes, you are correct. However, it doesn't look as bad when considered with the Angus Reid poll ... you must admit.

Edited December 19, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

That Decima one doesn't look good though Mike. you must admit.

It is the unexpected in politics that can weigh heavy on the polls.

I think there was a nervousness about the response on the reactor. Who was one to believe in the debacle: the plant operator? The plant regulator? Or the Prime Minister?

Bali played a huge role. Baird may not be the best spokesman for the portfolio. One can imagine if someone like Prentice was in the file. However, having said that, it is amazing how Prentice was unexpectedly stomped on by the copyright thing. He pulled the legislation even before tabling it last week.

The Mulroney-Shreiber issue is still leaving people with questions despite how some say everything is settled, let's call it a day.

Maybe the GST cut in January will help the Tories. But then we have the Liberal by-election that Rae is running in starting December 30. Who knows how all that will play out.

Edited December 20, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

It is the unexpected in politics that can weigh heavy on the polls.

Why ignore the Angus Reid poll for days then post it immediately after I did?

[Vancouver King]

Why ignore the Angus Reid poll for days then post it immediately after I did?

Why bog the forum down with more of your personal attacks?

Since you judge a 3-4% decline in Liberal numbers as a portent of coming electoral disaster on a biblical scale, what must you think of the latest Tory melt of 6%? Mulroney's indiscretions, global warming, execution of Canadians abroad and isotopes have conspired to whack your party with a decline which might in fact turn out to be a seismic shift towards the Official Opposition.

Make an effort to compensate for the Tory's new second-party status with something other than additional vindictive drivel.

[Michael Bluth]

Why bog the forum down with more of your personal attacks?

Since you judge a 3-4% decline in Liberal numbers as a portent of coming electoral disaster on a biblical scale, what must you think of the latest Tory melt of 6%? Mulroney's indiscretions, global warming, execution of Canadians abroad and isotopes have conspired to whack your party with a decline which might in fact turn out to be a seismic shift towards the Official Opposition.

Make an effort to compensate for the Tory's new second-party status with something other than additional vindictive drivel.

New second party status? Only if we accept the non-existence of the polls conveniently omitted.

My reply to White Doors answers all of your questions, does it not? Maybe if you read the posts instead of launching into your own personal attacks...

Who really is the one posting personal attacks? Unless you see 'vindictive drivel' as a positive, non-personal statement.