Canadian Political Polls

[Michael Bluth]

Conservatives not on hook for Mulroney furor, Canadians say in poll. From today's Globe.

A new Strategic Counsel poll for The Globe and Mail/CTV News finds that 66 per cent of those surveyed believe the allegations about Mr. Mulroney are totally unrelated to the current Conservative government, while only 19 per cent think they are related. By contrast, 57 per cent believe Mr. Mulroney should repay the $2.1-million he received as a settlement from a previous Liberal government in 1997.

I guess that 19% represents the hardcore Liberals who truly despise the Conservatives and all they stand for. No loss there. No chance of fishing for any votes in that pond.

This inquiry will captivate the public to an extent, but it will not reach Gomery-esque levels of public engagement.

[Fortunata]

A new Strategic Counsel poll for The Globe and Mail/CTV News finds that 66 per cent of those surveyed believe the allegations about Mr. Mulroney are totally unrelated to the current Conservative government

The events back when money exchanged hands is unrelated to this government. What is related though, is that Mulroney is (was) an adviser and, the question of when and what this gov't knew and did Mulroney and Steve discuss any part of this?

[jdobbin]

The events back when money exchanged hands is unrelated to this government. What is related though, is that Mulroney is (was) an adviser and, the question of when and what this gov't knew and did Mulroney and Steve discuss any part of this?

It is funny how some people are saying that they don't believe the present government is involved but then we see three polls where they have dropped back down to low to mid 30s.

It is other issues that have brought them down?

[Michael Bluth]

It is funny how some people are saying that they don't believe the present government is involved but then we see three polls where they have dropped back down to low to mid 30s.

It is other issues that have brought them down?

It's funny how you can continue to mispresent things and live with yourself. Oh right, no conscience.

[gc1765]

Conservatives not on hook for Mulroney furor, Canadians say in poll. From today's Globe.

I guess that 19% represents the hardcore Liberals who truly despise the Conservatives and all they stand for. No loss there. No chance of fishing for any votes in that pond.

This inquiry will captivate the public to an extent, but it will not reach Gomery-esque levels of public engagement.

What was conveniently left out of that same poll...

The poll also found a majority of Canadians believe the Prime Minister is covering up when he knew about the allegations to protect Mr. Mulroney. When asked whether they believe reports that Mr. Harper knew of the allegations last spring, 51 per cent said yes, while 34 per cent didn't buy the notion of a cover-up.

Interesting how the person who accuses others of deliberately misrepresenting things would conveniently leave out this piece of information...

[daniel]

Do you recall the issue that caused the downturn in the polls?

As stated by others, it was the Conservatives themselves. When they previously reached a high, some of the people on this forum were elated and hopeful. That's when the Conservatives started implementing Conservative policies (lite) and the general population didn't like it even with a leaderless opposition.

Only when they started implementing nonConservative policies did their popularity rise again.

Now, it's Mulroney as only one factor plus more Conservative policies:

no effort to retrieve ex-patriot Canadians from capital punishment;

Frivolous GST cuts;

municipalities

Afghanistan

mention of eliminating the gun registry

[capricorn]

From the Globe article quoted by Michael Bluth:

By contrast, 57 per cent believe Mr. Mulroney should repay the $2.1-million he received as a settlement from a previous Liberal government in 1997.

I would think many of those polled were unaware the settlement was to cover Mulroney's legal expenses. The MSM makes no effort to point this fact out in reporting on this story. One thing it does is reinforce in people's minds that the settlement was extended to Mulroney by a Liberal government.

[Michael Bluth]

Interesting how the person who accuses others of deliberately misrepresenting things would conveniently leave out this piece of information...

Hey, it's against the spirt of the rules. But two can play at that game.

As long as the misrepresentation is there I will point it out.

Kudos to you for pointing out the omission.

[jdobbin]

What was conveniently left out of that same poll...

Interesting how the person who accuses others of deliberately misrepresenting things would conveniently leave out this piece of information...

In this same this thread I highlight Harper's support for calling an inquiry. In another thread I also posted what Harper's support was from the public.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=269439

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=269443

If anyone has a problem with a thread, report it. I'm sure the moderators will give it the due consideration that it deserves.

[Michael Bluth]

If anyone has a problem with a thread, report it. I'm sure the moderators will give it the due consideration that it deserves.

As was done when certain posters were making libelous 'stalker boy' posts. I'm glad that behaviour was stopped.

Interesting how the person who accuses others of deliberately misrepresenting things would conveniently leave out this piece of information...

I take it your lack of comment on the actual poll means you agree that the mere 19% of people who think the accusations are related to the current Government are the only 'committed' Liberals left in the country.

Dion is still on course to break John Turner's record of 1984.

Guess the Schreiber gift is more of a trojan horse than anything else.

[jdobbin]

By contrast, 57 per cent believe Mr. Mulroney should repay the $2.1-million he received as a settlement from a previous Liberal government in 1997.

I would think many of those polled were unaware the settlement was to cover Mulroney's legal expenses. The MSM makes no effort to point this fact out in reporting on this story. One thing it does is reinforce in people's minds that the settlement was extended to Mulroney by a Liberal government.

I think the Canadian people believe that Mulroney received the money under false pretenses. They heard Mulroney say for years he had no relationship with Shreiber and then learn afterwards that he earned $300,000 from the man. It is fairly evident that people think that a lie was told and that the evidence of a relationship was covered up along with the undeclared money at the time of the RCMP investigation.

Edited November 16, 2007 by jdobbin

[gc1765]

I take it your lack of comment on the actual poll means you agree that the mere 19% of people who think the accusations are related to the current Government are the only 'committed' Liberals left in the country.

I don't know what you mean by 'committed'...I voted for the Liberals last election, and if nothing changes, will probably vote for them again in the next election, but I still think Harper had nothing to do with the Airbus affair. That was before his time. Whether there was a 'cover-up', I have no idea, but I don't think Harper was actually involved in any scandal. I'm surprised that 19% of the country thinks so.

Guess the Schreiber gift is more of a trojan horse than anything else.

How so? The polls seem to indicate that this has hurt the Conservatives quite a bit.

[jdobbin]

How so? The polls seem to indicate that this has hurt the Conservatives quite a bit.

Two weeks after their budget and they are back to low 30s in the polls. Seems Harper just can't convince people to give him majority support.

According to Ipsos:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/st...773517b&k=0

ccording to Sean Simpson, research manager at Ipsos Reid Public Affairs, historical elections data suggests that leaders who run behind their parties in popular support do not necessarily hurt the overall fortunes of the party. For example, in 2000 Jean Chrétien was polling 30% at a time when the Liberals were at 43% in the polls (they eventually won 40% of the vote).

The converse is also true ­- in an exit poll, John Tory ran 10 points ahead of Dalton McGuinty when voters were asked who would make the best premier in the recent Ontario election, yet his Progressive Conservative party lost by 10 percentage points to Mr. McGuinty's Liberals.

While the federal Conservatives would love to make the ballot question a straight choice between Mr. Harper and Mr. Dion, the residual brand loyalty involved suggests wider issues will be at play. Elections are a particular moment in time when people judge in which direction they want their society to move. In this light, the leaders are merely the pitchmen, selling their particular brand of nostrum.

[jdobbin]

Environics poll on the environment.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

The idea of other provinces offering financial aid to oil-rich Alberta was supported by 57 per cent of Canadians, according to the poll conducted by Environics Research Group for the Trudeau Foundation and the Canada West Foundation.

Not surprisingly, support for giving the West aid to buffer it from the economic fallout of dealing with global warming was strongest in the four western provinces, with backing around the 70-per-cent level across the region. But it was also endorsed by 55 per cent of Ontario residents, and reasonably strong pluralities in both Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

"It's not the finding that one might have predicted," said Keith Neuman, vice-president of Environics.

But he said Canadians find climate change such a pressing problem that they want strong action taken and believe there should be shared responsibility for dealing with it.

"People are really looking for some leadership and some action. They want something to happen," Mr. Neuman said. "If a region has to in fact shoulder some additional burden, maybe some help is called for because this is a national issue."

The poll was commissioned in advance of a conference on climate change starting tomorrow in Calgary, organized by the Trudeau Foundation.

There were some other interesting findings in the poll as well.

[Fortunata]

The MSM makes no effort to point this fact out in reporting on this story.

CBC reported it.

I think Mulroney would make an excellent poker player. Or maybe not. The stronger he postures the less he holds in his hand? He did bluff his way through last time but I'm not sure that's going to work second time around.

[Michael Bluth]

How so? The polls seem to indicate that this has hurt the Conservatives quite a bit.

Hmm, the Conservatives are still within the margin of error from polls released prior to Schreiber's hail mary.

Do explain what you mean by 'quite a bit'.

[jbg]

I think the Canadian people believe that Mulroney received the money under false pretenses. They heard Mulroney say for years he had no relationship with Shreiber and then learn afterwards that he earned $300,000 from the man. It is fairly evident that people think that a lie was told and that the evidence of a relationship was covered up along with the undeclared money at the time of the RCMP investigation.

I see that Mulroney has lots of problems.

But jdobbin, wasn't it Harper who brought Mulroney down in the first place, basically. How do you tar Harper with Mulroney's brush?

[gc1765]

Hmm, the Conservatives are still within the margin of error from polls released prior to Schreiber's hail mary.

Last week, the Conservatives were polling above 40%. This week they are around 32-35%. If you want to argue that is within in the margin of error, then I'll leave you with this...

Here's a lesson for you.

The 3 point lead the Conservatives have in the Strategic Counsel poll means the CPC is equally likely to be SIX POINTS up on the Liberals as they are to have exactly the same level of support.

Also, the fact that there seems to be a trend in the polls this week also lowers the margin of error...but you already knew that...

Do you understand that the ongoing trend of Conservative leads lowers the margin of error, and thus the misleading statistical tie.

Do explain what you mean by 'quite a bit'.

"Quite a bit" means going from, say, 42% down to, say 32-35%

[capricorn]

Last week, the Conservatives were polling above 40%. This week they are around 32-35%.

Right now, voters are grumpy, confused and volatile. You also have a group that doesn't give a damn. Good fodder for the pollsters and political pundits.

[jdobbin]

I see that Mulroney has lots of problems.

But jdobbin, wasn't it Harper who brought Mulroney down in the first place, basically. How do you tar Harper with Mulroney's brush?

Harper called the inquiry himself. He's the one that flip flopped on the issue.

The Canadian public believes Harper did the right thing calling an inquiry but at the same time, they think he knew about the allegations for some time despite denials.

I think the flip flop, the fact that that remnants of the PCs exist in the present Conservative party and the past attempts to rehabilitate a man that most Canadians still want to roast over the fire have contributed to three polls that took the Tories from 42% to between 32% and 35%.

[Michael Bluth]

Harper called the inquiry himself. He's the one that flip flopped on the issue.

The Canadian public believes Harper did the right thing calling an inquiry but at the same time, they think he knew about the allegations for some time despite denials.

I think the flip flop, the fact that that remnants of the PCs exist in the present Conservative party and the past attempts to rehabilitate a man that most Canadians still want to roast over the fire have contributed to three polls that took the Tories from 42% to between 32% and 35%.

The situation changed. So the Prime Minister did the right thing for Canadians.

Paul Wells said it best:

It is always extremely disconcerting for opposition parties when governments do the right thing.

Harper did the right thing in calling for an inquiry.

Attempts at attacking the Government over doing the right thing are pathetic.

[Shakeyhands]

The situation changed. So the Prime Minister did the right thing for Canadians.

Paul Wells said it best:

Harper did the right thing in calling for an inquiry.

Attempts at attacking the Government over doing the right thing are pathetic.

Is that like when Martin called for what became the Gomery Inquiry?

[Michael Bluth]

Is that like when Martin called for what became the Gomery Inquiry?

If you have examples of the then opposition attacking the government for calling the Gomery inquiry will you please share?

[Shakeyhands]

If you have examples of the then opposition attacking the government for calling the Gomery inquiry will you please share?

Thats not what i am saying at all... I'm saying that Martin too did the 'right thing for Canadians' by calling for an inquiry... Just agreeing with you on what good leaders do...

[jdobbin]

Thats not what i am saying at all... I'm saying that Martin too did the 'right thing for Canadians' by calling for an inquiry... Just agreeing with you on what good leaders do...

Have the opposition attacked the government for calling an inquiry? I must have have missed that.

It is funny how Harper never flip flops. He always makes the best decisions. Guess that is why CTV showed the split screen o Monday Harper beside Friday Harper. One was a dismissive and amused Harper saying that he wasn't going to have an inquiry, the other was an unsmiling and concerned Harper saying there was.

The fact that Monday Harper had the same info as Friday Harper is probably why people have pushed this week's Harper back into minority territory. In fact, in two polls, it could be Liberal minority territory.