Canadian Political Polls

jdobbin · October 3, 2007

Latest federal poll from Decima.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071003/...nal/tories_poll

Despite a hellish month, a new poll suggests the federal Liberals remain in a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives in public support.
Although they've been bombarded with negative news coverage, suffered disastrous byelection results and are feuding publicly, they're only two percentage points behind the Tories. The Conservative 33-31 per cent national lead in the latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey falls within the margin of error. The NDP is at 16 per cent and the Green party is at 10.

The Liberals actually lead the Tories in the three largest provinces, throughout Atlantic Canada, and among women and younger voters.

The parties are tied in urban Canada.

The Conservatives hold commanding leads in the prairies, among voters over age 50, among those who earn over $100,000 and among men.

Pollster Bruce Anderson says that while the overall numbers show a statistical tie, the Conservatives have more reason for optimism than the Liberals.

That reason is Quebec.

The overall numbers in that province show the Bloc Quebecois at 31 per cent, the Liberals at 23 per cent, the Tories at 22 per cent, and the NDP at 13 per cent.

Higgly · October 3, 2007

CityTV just announced similar results from a Crop-Decima poll. This is getting interesting.

Michael Bluth · October 4, 2007

Latest federal poll from Decima.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071003/...nal/tories_poll

The Liberals always perform well in BC in pre-election polls, but come voting day the results never materialize.

If this is a good sign for Dion, then Liberal supporters are truly fooling themselves.

jdobbin · October 4, 2007

This is an interesting poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...04?hub=Politics

Stephen Harper has long been home on the range in Western Canada, but a new survey suggests it's time to turn in his Stetson.
The Canadian Press-Harris/Decima poll, an online survey of 1,400 residents from the four western provinces, found that 42 per cent said they thought of the prime minister as a western Canadian, but 58 per cent did not.

When asked if they considered him more of a central Canadian, 44 per cent said yes and 56 per cent said no.

Deborah Grey, the former trailblazing Alberta Reform MP who once employed a young Harper as a speechwriter and adviser, figures he's simply facing the same challenge as any prime minister -- balancing competing national concerns.

"Maybe some people feel he's selling out hither and yon, but he's doing what he feels he has to do to bring the country together and look nationally at things,'' Grey said in an interview.

"To me, I'd be one of the 42 per cent.''

Keepitsimple · October 4, 2007

This is an interesting poll.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...04?hub=Politics

Not surprising since he was born and raised in Toronto and then moved to Calgary.

jdobbin · October 4, 2007

Not surprising since he was born and raised in Toronto and then moved to Calgary.

Suggesting that he has always been seen as a carpetbagger and not really a native son of the west? I suppose the poll could be read in any number of ways. I wonder how Joe Clark would have ranked in such a poll though.

mikedavid00 · October 4, 2007

Suggesting that he has always been seen as a carpetbagger and not really a native son of the west? I suppose the poll could be read in any number of ways. I wonder how Joe Clark would have ranked in such a poll though.

What's the message behind the CTV site refering to Paul martin as the Prime Minister?

Wow we just can't let some things go can we.

jdobbin · October 7, 2007

Poll asks whether Green support will hold in an election.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...XP7KYDh7bjKdaPQ

A recent rise in support for the Green party, coupled with a belief by many people that the support would hold firm in a fall campaign, could make results of an election more unpredictable than usual, a new poll suggests.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found most Canadians think that voters who currently say they support the Green party will continue to do so come election time.

Of the just over 1,000 Canadians asked, 37 per cent believe Green party support will hold while a further 28 per cent think it will actually increase. One in four respondents said they think support for the party will decline.

Recent polls have indicated the Green party enjoys the backing of roughly 10 per cent of decided voters - a level the party has failed to achieve in past elections.

If that support does hold, it could mean trouble for the more mainstream parties in tight electoral races, says Harris-Decima pollster Bruce Anderson.

Individual ridings are usually understood within the dynamic of two-party races or three-party races, said Anderson.

Michael Bluth · October 7, 2007

Poll asks whether Green support will hold in an election.
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...XP7KYDh7bjKdaPQ

Interesting poll.

As the pollster said the raison d'etre of the Greens is the environment. So if support for the Greens sticks then that would most likely hurt the NDP, with the Liberals also being hurt. The Greens could actually win a few seats if these numbes hold.

jdobbin · October 9, 2007

Latest poll from Decima.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071009/...nal/tories_poll

hree weeks of internal Liberal cockfighting came home to roost Tuesday with a new poll suggesting the federal party trails the governing Conservatives by seven percentage points.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's governing Tories at 35 per cent - still well short of majority government territory and below what the Conservatives earned on election day in 2006.

The Liberals, meanwhile slumped to 28 per cent nationally in the wake of three dispiriting byelection losses in Quebec last month.

And it is in Quebec where the Liberal sky is truly falling.

The poll of just more than 1,000 Canadians last Thursday through Sunday put national support for the NDP at 17 per cent, the Green party at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent.

But in Quebec, the Liberals were mired among the NDP and Green also-rans.

Some 35 per cent of Quebecers backed the Bloc, followed by the Conservatives at 26 per cent. The Liberals trailed with 14 per cent, the Greens were at 12 and the New Democrats at 11.

The beleaguered Liberal leader said Tuesday that the dip was to be expected.

The Liberals are definitely in trouble in Quebec and need to put together the team and the policies that will revitalize the party there. The Tories will make gains there but are still short of a majority nationally.

ScottSA · October 9, 2007

Latest poll from Decima.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071009/...nal/tories_poll

The Liberals are definitely in trouble in Quebec and need to put together the team and the policies that will revitalize the party there. The Tories will make gains there but are still short of a majority nationally.

If you're as much a pundit as you seem, you know very well that at this stage it's momentum and upside that counts. The Cons have no real downside, and dion is standing at the edge of a cliff with a heavy wind at his back. Certainly nothing is definite yet and things can change quickly, but it sure ain't looking good for the Libs.

Canadian Blue · October 9, 2007

It gets to be pretty bad when the Liberals are fighting for third place in Quebec.

jdobbin · October 9, 2007

It gets to be pretty bad when the Liberals are fighting for third place in Quebec.

There's no doubt that Dion blew an opportunity in the by-elections to win at least one of the ridings. The Tories will definitely win more seats if an election is held in a few weeks. Is it enough to win a majority? Not quite yet. However, a big defeat in Quebec will pretty much end Dion's career.

jdobbin · October 9, 2007

If you're as much a pundit as you seem, you know very well that at this stage it's momentum and upside that counts. The Cons have no real downside, and dion is standing at the edge of a cliff with a heavy wind at his back. Certainly nothing is definite yet and things can change quickly, but it sure ain't looking good for the Libs.

Perhaps Harper will call an election if the Liberals approve the throne speech. He can always say he feels blocked by the Senate and go to the GG and say confidence is lost.

Alexandra · October 9, 2007

Perhaps Harper will call an election if the Liberals approve the throne speech. He can always say he feels blocked by the Senate and go to the GG and say confidence is lost.

You must have read the Nat Post's article on Dion's protestations against an election jdobbin.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/st...cab&k=32209
However, Dion spent much of his time telling reporters how he doesn't want an election, which would be the third in four years. But, he said, if one is called it will solely be Harper's fault and the Liberals will be ready.

If through this throne speech we see that the prime minister wishes to reduce Parliament's role to that of a rubber stamp, he alone will be responsible for bringing Canada into an election," Dion charged. "Last Tuesday, the prime minister basically said that even if Canadians do not want an election, he does," Dion said.

If Stephane is FORCED to reject the Throne Speech it will be ALL Harpers' fault.

Not Jack's or Gilles or, Stephanes'? I wonder how many of the voting public will agree with Stephane's rationale if he does reject the speech.

Stephane must be referring to Harper's "fish or cut bait" comment by claiming Harper basically said .... if Canadians don't want an election ... he does. Must be a Quebecois form of translation from the English for Dion to have interpreted fish or cut bait into wanting an election?

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jdobbin · October 9, 2007

You must have read the Nat Post's article on Dion's protestations against an election jdobbin.
If Stephane is FORCED to reject the Throne Speech it will be ALL Harpers' fault.

Not Jack's or Gilles or, Stephanes'? I wonder how many of the voting public will agree with Stephane's rationale if he does reject the speech.

Stephane must be referring to Harper's "fish or cut bait" comment by claiming Harper basically said .... if Canadians don't want an election ... he does. Must be a Quebecois form of translation from the English for Dion to have interpreted fish or cut bait into wanting an election?

I don't know of a party that wants to publicly admit they want an election. If they look like they are too eager, shave a few points off in the polls right away.

Canuck E Stan · October 9, 2007

A Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll released Tuesday suggested the Conservatives currently have a seven-point lead over the Liberals, with 35 per cent of respondents saying they would support the Tories.
The Liberals had 28 per cent support, and in Quebec it was only 14 per cent.

The move has begun....for the Conservatives in one direction, and for the Liberals in the other.

jdobbin · October 9, 2007

The move has begun....for the Conservatives in one direction, and for the Liberals in the other.

It definitely could lead to an election. You are thinking massive Conservative majority?

jennie · October 9, 2007

It definitely could lead to an election. You are thinking massive Conservative majority?

I sure hope not! :rolleyes:

Michael Bluth · October 10, 2007

The move has begun....for the Conservatives in one direction, and for the Liberals in the other.

Exactly right. Now we are looking at a very strong Conservative minority or barely scratching out a majority.

Thankfully some posters have finally been forced to move of the 'statistical tie' charade.

Canuck E Stan · October 13, 2007

http://www.cfrb.com/news/565/603883/stars+...ederal+election

Conservatives are on the move...at 40%

The results of the Ipsos Reid poll for CFRB, CanWest News Service and Global Television suggest that the Conservatives under Stephen Harper are now within sight of a majority federal government.
The poll indicates that the Conservatives have the support of 40 percent of decided voters. That's a 12-point lead over Stephane Dion's Liberals, who have 28 percent support. The NDP sits at 16 percent and the Green Party at seven percent.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

Conservatives are on the move...at 40%

Anything over 11% above any other party or 40% overall is considered majority support. The Tories have both. If an election were held today, Harper would have a majority with those numbers.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...a2dc&k=7783

The federal Conservatives have surged to 40 per cent in the popularity sweepstakes, opening a 12-point lead over the Liberals and moving within sight of majority government, a new national poll says.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos-Reid exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, also says that almost seven in 10 respondents believe Canada is "moving in the right track these days," and that almost half (49 per cent) identified with the sentiment that "Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election" as prime minister.

"These are the best numbers the Tories have had in years," Darrell Bricker, president of the polling firm, said Friday. At 40 per cent, the Conservatives were up four points from the last Ipsos-Reid poll in August, and were right on the "magic number" needed to think about forming a majority government, he said.

Edited October 13, 2007 by jdobbin

geoffrey · October 13, 2007

The Liberals are in serious trouble, more so than the CPC is surging. 28% is very questionable support.

Even worse, this is a trend.

Beyond that, the Liberals are dead in Quebec, completely dead. A campaign may even see the CPC take enough support to oust the Bloc at the top of the Quebec popular vote.

Canadians are pretty clear in that they really don't like Dion. Can the Liberals fix their terrible error or will they have to risk entering a campaign with him at the helm? I don't believe there is any Canadian that believes that Dion will make gains during a campaign.

jdobbin · October 13, 2007

The Liberals are in serious trouble, more so than the CPC is surging. 28% is very questionable support.
Even worse, this is a trend.

Well, not quite a trend. It is the ups and downs of the polls. The Tories were at 40% in the polls in spring after the budget but within two weeks, they were back down into the mid 30s.

The Liberals are not voting against the throne speech. They said as much today. There will not be new legislation until late next week at the latest and no crucial votes next week except the throne speech.

The only way we go to an election is if Harper calls one despite winning a confidence vote.

geoffrey · October 13, 2007

The Liberals are not voting against the throne speech. They said as much today. There will not be new legislation until late next week at the latest and no crucial votes next week except the throne speech.

If Dion supports the throne speech, he's setting himself up for an even greater fall. The Liberals will have to dismiss Kyoto outright to support the government. This will be spun against the party as unable to stand up and be the opposition.

It also takes the environment right off the table as an election issue between the two parties. The Liberals will bleed heavily to the NDP for abandoning Kyoto (we all know that Martin/Dion abandoned it years ago, but not the average idiot).