Canadian Political Polls

[Who's Doing What?]

Harper is Beelzebub! He is Satan with an expensive hairdresser who adorns his horns at taxpayer's expense! He wants to pollute, to make us all into fundamentalist Christians, to put troops in the streets! He is the AntiChrist!

That's almost right.

But Cheney is Satan and Bush and Harper are but demons in his service.

[jdobbin]

Harper is Beelzebub! He is Satan with an expensive hairdresser who adorns his horns at taxpayer's expense! He wants to pollute, to make us all into fundamentalist Christians, to put troops in the streets! He is the AntiChrist!

In Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, the people would probably agree with you. I think they would also say "liar" and "breaker of deals".

[jbg]

Results of the Corporate Research Associates poll suggest satisfaction with Harper's Tories dropped across the region, but markedly so in Nova Scotia and especially in Newfoundland and Labrador.

That doesn't leave out much of Atlantic Canada, unless they're saying he's lionized in PEI and NB.

[jdobbin]

That doesn't leave out much of Atlantic Canada, unless they're saying he's lionized in PEI and NB.

Tories are so popular in PEI that they lost their majority government there. They already have four Liberal MPs.

Perhaps the three Tory MPs in New Brunswick should watch their backs.

[jbg]

That doesn't leave out much of Atlantic Canada, unless they're saying he's lionized in PEI and NB.

Tories are so popular in PEI that they lost their majority government there. They already have four Liberal MPs.

Perhaps the three Tory MPs in New Brunswick should watch their backs.

My point is that news article should win an award for dumbest article in Canadian history. It's like saying that most provincial capitals have traffic problems, but markedly Victoria, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, especially Toronto, Quebec City and Frederickton, and with severe impact Halifax, Charlottetown, St. John, Whitehorse, and Yellowknife. Well, I guess Iqalit's isn't too bad.

[normanchateau]

The trend continues. According to the Decima poll released today, the Conservatives are now in second place at 29%. The Liberals are at 32%

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/2...anada-poll.html

[jdobbin]

The trend continues. According to the Decima poll released today, the Conservatives are now in second place at 29%. The Liberals are at 32%

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/2...anada-poll.html

Holy cow. Three points down now. Tories are definitely suffering at the moment.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national...f1efde9&k=83127

The survey by Decima Research, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, placed Liberal support at 32 per cent, the Conservatives at 29 and the NDP at 18. The Bloc Quebecois and Green party were tied nationally at nine per cent.

The telephone survey of more than 1,000 Canadians was conducted from last Thursday until Monday, just as a dispute over the Atlantic Accord on offshore resource revenues gained national prominence.

Two days before the latest poll began, Nova Scotia MP Bill Casey was booted from the Conservative caucus for voting against a budget provision he says breaks a government promise to leave the accord unaltered.

It has to to be the Atlantic Accord repudiation that is killing them in part.

There was zero boost from Harper the G8 summit when the news at home is how Casey was kicked out despite MacKay saying Tories would never, ever do such a thing.

The poll date ended Monday but I'd say that even as the week went on, Nova Scotia's anger just continues to grow.

[Michael Bluth]

Holy cow. Three points down now. Tories are definitely suffering at the moment.

Where is the talk of a "statistical tie"?

Oh, that's right. Only when it is the Liberals who are three points down.

[geoffrey]

Regional trends... Tory support could drop by alot in the Maritimes with little cost.

Look at Alberta. If the Tories lost 40% of their support (or 20% of the overall), they'd still carry all but a couple seats. That's dropping around 150,000 votes with no cost.

In first past the post, popular vote is meaningless. Chretien won a huge majority with the same support as Harper received last election. If someone has a seat projection, I'll look, but this poll is rather meaningless in of itself. No doubt the Tories will lose seats here, but there is a good possibility with distributions like they are that the Liberals could easily win a plurality of popular support and wind up with fewer seats.

[jdobbin]

Regional trends... Tory support could drop by alot in the Maritimes with little cost.

Look at Alberta. If the Tories lost 40% of their support (or 20% of the overall), they'd still carry all but a couple seats. That's dropping around 150,000 votes with no cost.

In first past the post, popular vote is meaningless. Chretien won a huge majority with the same support as Harper received last election. If someone has a seat projection, I'll look, but this poll is rather meaningless in of itself. No doubt the Tories will lose seats here, but there is a good possibility with distributions like they are that the Liberals could easily win a plurality of popular support and wind up with fewer seats.

I think further break down has the Tories down quite a bit in Ontario. That is significant. Quebec has the BQ up and Tories in third. Also, not good.

In a minority government, the Tories can't afford to lose seats in the Maritimes. They can't win anymore in Alberta.

The poll also put the Liberals ahead in Ontario, 39-33, and had the Bloc rebounding in Quebec to 38 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 23 and the Conservatives at 16 per cent.

Anderson said the rolling averages suggest the Conservatives have lost ground in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, with Liberals getting most of the benefits.

We'll have to see what happens in Saskatchewan next. That's a lot of Tory MPs there and an increasing feeling as expressed by their media is that they too have not done well by the budget.

[gc1765]

Regional trends... Tory support could drop by alot in the Maritimes with little cost.

Look at Alberta. If the Tories lost 40% of their support (or 20% of the overall), they'd still carry all but a couple seats. That's dropping around 150,000 votes with no cost.

In first past the post, popular vote is meaningless. Chretien won a huge majority with the same support as Harper received last election. If someone has a seat projection, I'll look, but this poll is rather meaningless in of itself. No doubt the Tories will lose seats here, but there is a good possibility with distributions like they are that the Liberals could easily win a plurality of popular support and wind up with fewer seats.

Atlantic Canada probably has the most seats per capita, so losing support there means a lot in terms of seats. And they are down 7% from election day, that can't be all from Atlantic Canada, can it?

[geoffrey]

We'll have to see what happens in Saskatchewan next. That's a lot of Tory MPs there and an increasing feeling as expressed by their media is that they too have not done well by the budget.

Rural Saskatchewan isn't exactly the dominion of people like Dion. If they had picked a competent leader, you'd have a good shot at a majority come this fall.

With Iggy for example, I can guarntee gains in Alberta and the rest of the West.

Unfortunately, the Liberals do need to defer to the occasional Francophone to fend off the Quebecois.

[BC_chick]

The trend continues. According to the Decima poll released today, the Conservatives are now in second place at 29%. The Liberals are at 32%

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/2...anada-poll.html

Say what?

Well, knock me over with a feather, say it isn't so! Steve?!?!? Perfect little Stevie?!?!?

What did that non-leader do now? Surely it must be time for an attack ad campaign.

[geoffrey]

I don't really understand what is motivating people to change political stripes.

Dion has proven to be completely ineffective as opposition leader... the Liberals haven't had a new policy in well over a year. It's all just 'we aren't the Tories.'

It's ugly.

[BC_chick]

I don't really understand what is motivating people to change political stripes.

Dion has proven to be completely ineffective as opposition leader... the Liberals haven't had a new policy in well over a year. It's all just 'we aren't the Tories.'

It's ugly.

Well my friend, I can only speculate that it must be the same phenomenon that somehow brought about our present prime minister after 13 years of Liberal Leadership - sometimes you don't vote for who you want, but who you don't want.

Not getting ahead of myself at all here, I didn't understand why Conservatives thought 3% is a lead, and I certainly don't count it as a lead when my guy's ahead.

But it is a trend to start paying attention to.

[geoffrey]

Well my friend, I can only speculate that it must be the same phenomenon that somehow brought about our present prime minister after 13 years of Liberal Leadership - sometimes you don't vote for who you want, but who you don't want.

In my belief, if you don't have someone you support, you just shouldn't vote. There should be a none of the above option.

Not getting ahead of myself at all here, I didn't understand why Conservatives thought 3% is a lead, and I certainly don't count it as a lead when my guy's ahead.

But it is a trend to start paying attention to.

Absolutely. The poll numbers in the coming weeks should be interesting.

Some of the big things that the Liberals were counting on for a surge in support haven't happened. Afghanistan is relatively calm compared to what some were expecting. No Tory backbenchers have tabled the 'Women are inferior to house pets Act.' Overall, the Tories have been, well, quite Liberal.

I don't get it really. Just don't get it. Canadians are a very irrational bunch.

[BC_chick]

Tories have been, well, quite Liberal.

I wouldn't go that far, centrist, maybe, which is a notch to the left for Steve. But definitely not liberal. Some of the budget may seem liberal - but come on, which liberal leader doesn't meet Bono?

I'm half-joking here, but you get the gist... anything liberal social-policy he's mustered up was begrudgingly and his priorities are still crime, army, and morality...

Since when did you know Martin or Chretien to govern like that?

[gc1765]

In my belief, if you don't have someone you support, you just shouldn't vote. There should be a none of the above option.

If we had a "none of the above" option, I imagine voter turnout would be near 100%. And "none of the above" would win every election hands down.

[normanchateau]

Holy cow. Three points down now. Tories are definitely suffering at the moment.

Where is the talk of a "statistical tie"?

It is indeed a statistical tie but indicates that the trend established in the past few months continues, i.e., the decline in Conservative support.

What can Stephen Harper possibly do now? Apologize to Sikhs for not allowing in illegal immigrants in 1914? Apologize to homosexuals for Harper voting against Bill C-250, the legislation which made it a hate crime to promote or advocate the killing of homosexuals? Deliver billions and billions of dollars to Quebec at the expense of the West and other provinces?

Identify which special interest groups he hasn't yet apologized to, grovelled to or thrown money at?

Leave the Conservatives and allow them a shot at a majority government?

[normanchateau]

But it is a trend to start paying attention to.

I don't get it really. Just don't get it. Canadians are a very irrational bunch.

There's nothing irrational about Canadians rejecting a leader with socially conservative views. In the past election, 64% of voters rejected such a leader. Today, 71% won't vote for him. Conservative supporters are counting on Canadians to forget Harper's previously stated views and pretend he has morphed into someone he is not.

[Shakeyhands]

I don't really understand what is motivating people to change political stripes.

Dion has proven to be completely ineffective as opposition leader... the Liberals haven't had a new policy in well over a year. It's all just 'we aren't the Tories.'

It's ugly.

Geoff, the CPC won the last election with exactly that tactic, "we aren't the Liberals" and as far as I am concerned its not on the Liberals to lay out their policies before an election is called, other than to say "we'll do differently". It is in fact their job at this point, to point out every little flaw, real or imagined, that this government has. Sounds kinda familiar doesn't it.

And for Michael, yes, its really a statistical tie.

[Shakeyhands]

If we had a "none of the above" option, I imagine voter turnout would be near 100%. And "none of the above" would win every election hands down.

BREWSTER!!! BREWSTER!!! BREWSTER!!! BREWSTER!!! BREWSTER!!!

[Michael Bluth]

And for Michael, yes, its really a statistical tie.

Shakey I'd like to thank you and Normie for at least recognizing that fact. It's a minor concession, but a positive contribution to the board from both of you.

The poster who always pointed to "statistical ties" when it was the Liberals a couple points down can't even show the class to acknowledge that point.

I think the polls we see early July will be really telling.

My guess is that Harper will end up gaining support Nationally from his stand on the Atlantic Accords. It'll probably hurt him in the maritimes, but he'll more than make up for it everywhere else.

[Canuck E Stan]

My guess is that Harper will end up gaining support Nationally from his stand on the Atlantic Accords. It'll probably hurt him in the maritimes, but he'll more than make up for it everywhere else.

Most people in the poll probably didn't know enough about the Atlantic Accord when polled and as usual sided with the "small guy".

Now with the Ontario media on side with Harper's stand in the Atlantic Accord dispute, and the fact this issue involves money coming out of Ontario's pocket, I can't see Ontario siding with the Maritimes anytime in the future.

Who's going to support a party that wants to take more than their fair share from one province in order to make another province richer than them.

[Michael Bluth]

Now with the Ontario media on side with Harper's stand in the Atlantic Accord dispute, and the fact this issue involves money coming out of Ontario's pocket, I can't see Ontario siding with the Maritimes anytime in the future.

Who's going to support a party that wants to take more than their fair share from one province in order to make another province richer than them.

This also goes to building Haper's reputation as a strong leader.

Does anybody doubt that Martin would have bent over and given the Maritimes even more money in this situation?

I'm pretty happy Harper stood his ground on this one.