Canadian Political Polls

ScottSA · March 29, 2007

There are other dynamics at work here too.

First is the graying of the population and its concurrent rightward swing. As the pig moves through the python and as folks start to look around and look at themselves and their situation, the appeal for "change" loses its attraction. "Change" is a young person's mantra, and it worked as a political mantra too throughout the 80s and 90s, but folks have finally realized that while 'change' can mean a change for the better, at least as often it means a change from the frying pan into the fire. Leftism isn't trendy anymore, although it'll take the self-considered elites a while to twig to the fact, as always.

The demographics of immigration is another factor. It used to hold true that immigrants traditionally voted for the Liberals, but that has been changing over the years as well. Especially among those immigrant groups which have made a success of their lives in Canada; most notably the Chinese and Hindu/Sikh segments of the population. To them, conservative policies are more appealing than the cradle to grave politics of liberalism. I can't cite the specific studies of immigrant voting behaviour, but I have read them, and this is one of the noticeable trends over the past decade.

Mark Steyn and others have brought to national attention the demographics of politics as well. Simply put, social conservatives reproduce faster than social "progressives". That's no particular surprise to anyone with experience in a traditional family background, and for anyone who has been to a rightwing policy convention. The former is self explanitory, and the latter is because ringwing women are sooooo much hotter than leftwing women. That means many more people are being raised in a conservative environment, and while it's cool to dis dad in 1st and 2nd year university, most people grow up and revert to formative beliefs eventually.

Finally, the big one: economy. Try as they might, the Libs and NDP can't make the economy tank by tomorrow. The beginnings of a recession are here, but no one will notice for a year or so...right now things look pretty good, and the Cons would be remiss if they didn't play the same game the Libs have for years and take credit for it.

gc1765 · March 29, 2007

That may have been the case 2 or 3 years ago but the Liberals have been moving left and the Conservatives are now occupying more of the center than the Liberals. With Dion at the helm, I don't think it will be long before the Liberals are simply a left wing party and the conservatives are center and centre right. It doesn't help the Liberals to have talk about "uniting the left" - that just reinforces the thought that they are vacating the center. Interesting times.

I mean in terms of the three parties. In other words, people on the right (or centre if you choose to believe that the Liberals are on the left. Of course, it's all relative, you can't really have 60-70% of Canada on the left and 30-40% of Canada either in the centre or right...but that's another story) will vote conservative, and people on the (far) left will vote NDP. People in the middle of those two (or centre-left if we are using your defintions) will be the undecided. A lot of people will choose between the Conservatives & Liberals or Liberals & NDP. How many people choose between the Conservatives and NDP? Some perhaps, but probably not very many.

Michael Bluth · March 29, 2007

I mean in terms of the three parties. In other words, people on the right (or centre if you choose to believe that the Liberals are on the left. Of course, it's all relative, you can't really have 60-70% of Canada on the left and 30-40% of Canada either in the centre or right...but that's another story) will vote conservative, and people on the (far) left will vote NDP. People in the middle of those two (or centre-left if we are using your defintions) will be the undecided. A lot of people will choose between the Conservatives & Liberals or Liberals & NDP. How many people choose between the Conservatives and NDP? Some perhaps, but probably not very many.

There have been a number of centre-right voters who supported the Liberals.

MPs like Joe Comuzzi, Pat O'Brien, Tom Wappel and Paul Szabo show that there have traditionally been centre-right Liberal supporters.

As the Liberals move to the left on the political spectrum mroe of these supporters will find a home with the Conservatives.

gc1765 · March 29, 2007

There have been a number of centre-right voters who supported the Liberals.
MPs like Joe Comuzzi, Pat O'Brien, Tom Wappel and Paul Szabo show that there have traditionally been centre-right Liberal supporters.

As the Liberals move to the left on the political spectrum mroe of these supporters will find a home with the Conservatives.

*If* the Liberals move to the left, then yes you are correct. It's also possible that the Liberals could steal some NDP support.

...but that doesn't change what I said about undecided voters tending to vote Liberal.

Michael Bluth · March 29, 2007

*If* the Liberals move to the left, then yes you are correct. It's also possible that the Liberals could steal some NDP support.
...but that doesn't change what I said about undecided voters tending to vote Liberal.

It appears to be more than an *if*.

However, any gains the Liberals make on the left will likely be more than offset by losses on the right.

Two points and the Conservatives are borderline majority, four and they are solidly there.

gc1765 · March 29, 2007

However, any gains the Liberals make on the left will likely be more than offset by losses on the right.

I'll agree with you on that much. I don't really want to see the Liberals move too far to the left (at least not fiscally).

geoffrey · March 29, 2007

Two points and the Conservatives are borderline majority, four and they are solidly there.

Outside of Quebec, they are there. Is Quebec on board now? Or not? That is the question of the day.

gc1765 · March 29, 2007

Outside of Quebec, they are there. Is Quebec on board now? Or not? That is the question of the day.

This recent poll would suggest otherwise Link

"And in Ontario, the Liberals were ahead in the most recent survey at 41 per cent to the Conservatives' 33 per cent. The NDP were at 14 per cent and the Green Party at 11 per cent in the province."

and in Quebec...

"The poll suggested the Tories surpassed the Liberals there for the first time in five months, sitting at 25 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois came in at 34 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the Green Party at 10 per cent and the NDP at 5 per cent."

Seems the Conservatives are doing well in Quebec, but not so well in Ontario. That is a huge drop from a month ago: "In Ontario, the Tories held on to their advantage, leading the Liberals 37 per cent to 32 per cent" Link

gc1765 · March 30, 2007

There seems to be a lot of polls recently...

"The Conservatives, after surging to the "magic" majority number of 40% in the immediate aftermath of last week’s budget, have dropped four points to 36% — the same level of support they secured when they won a minority victory in the Jan. 23, 2006, election.

The Liberals were up two points to 31% since last week's poll, the NDP was up one point to 15%, the Green party was up two points to 9%, and the Bloc Québécois dropped one point to 8%."

Link

jdobbin · March 30, 2007

And Angus Reid Strategies says Liberals are in freefall.

http://winnipegsun.com/News/Canada/2007/03...870057-sun.html

Federal Conservatives are riding a wave of popularity while their rival Liberals are crippled with plunging support, a new poll finds.
The online survey by Angus Reid Strategies found 39% of Canadians would vote Tory if an election were held today, while only 22% would cast their ballot for the Grits. New Democrats sit with 17% support, the Green Party climbs to 11% and the Bloc Quebecois slips to 10%.

On the leadership front, 41% believe Prime Minister Stephen Harper would make the best PM, compared to only 17% who picked Stephane Dion.

Pollster Angus Reid said the numbers could make the Liberals question if they chose the right leader, and will leave the Tories itching for a campaign.

"Harper would love it if he could find a pretext to have an election because the numbers on Dion are really devastating," he said. "The Liberal vote is in freefall."

I think there is a ridiculous amount of swinging back and forth.

Michael Bluth · April 1, 2007

And Angus Reid Strategies says Liberals are in freefall.
http://winnipegsun.com/News/Canada/2007/03...870057-sun.html

If this poll is to be believed it makes for a huge win for the CPC.

CPC 184

Lib 62

NDP 22

BQ 35

That's a bigger win then Chretien ever pulled off.

jbg · April 1, 2007

And Angus Reid Strategies says Liberals are in freefall.

http://winnipegsun.com/News/Canada/2007/03...870057-sun.html

If this poll is to be believed it makes for a huge win for the CPC.

CPC 184

Lib 62

NDP 22

BQ 35

That's a bigger win then Chretien ever pulled off.

I'm not up there so I wouldn't know, but these numbers seem to be all over the place. Hard to believe they could all be accurate, unless people really can't make up their minds or the polling samples are incredibly small.

Canadian Blue · April 1, 2007

The polls are all over the place, we really don't have much of an idea of whats going on. The one thing for certain in the Conservatives are in the lead, however this could all change once an election is called.

geoffrey · April 1, 2007

If anything, I think the Liberals need to go into an election with as high of support as possible. They will only lose English Canadian support once Dion starts speaking to everyone. I can't even imagine a leadership debate.

From what I've seen of Dion, he'll be an absolutely terrible campaigner, and he's going to stumble and fall all the way to the finish.

If the Liberals don't hit 30% going in, the CPC stands a good chance of increasing their seat total.

Michael Bluth · April 1, 2007

The polls are all over the place, we really don't have much of an idea of whats going on. The one thing for certain in the Conservatives are in the lead, however this could all change once an election is called.

It's not really a matter of the polls being *all over the place*.

In the last fourteen polls released the Conservative vote has consistenlty been between 35 and 41 percent. The pollsters involved in these polls are all reputable (Ipsos Reid/Angus Reid Strategies/Decima Research/Leger/Strategic Counsel.)

The Liberals vote was between 38.5 and 41 percent in their 1993 to 2000 run.

The real question mark in the next election will be the strength of the Green vote.

The Conservatives are definitely set to win a stronger minority at the very least. Given vote swings they appear to be likely to win between 140 and 185 seats. With the expected out come a small majority close to 160 seats.

Expect them to run a classic front-runner campaign. Run on their record and avoid mistakes.

The Liberals, NDP and Green are going to be so busy fighitng each other they won't be able to focus on the Conservatives. If the Conservatives can run as descipline a campaign as they did in 2006 they have a great chance of winning a majority.

Canadian Blue · April 1, 2007

I think it all depends on what happens with the Green and NDP vote. We might see strategic voting in this race to ensure Harper doesn't get a majority. But if the "scary, scary" label is useless, I have a feeling more people on the left would be willing to vote for whichever party they want to vote for instead of choosing between the lesser of two evils.

Michael Bluth · April 1, 2007

I think it all depends on what happens with the Green and NDP vote. We might see strategic voting in this race to ensure Harper doesn't get a majority. But if the "scary, scary" label is useless, I have a feeling more people on the left would be willing to vote for whichever party they want to vote for instead of choosing between the lesser of two evils.

I don't think you are going to see much strategic voting.

The Conservatives haven't been that *scary* *scary* *scary* in power. Sure the real lefties are going to bray about how scary Harper has been, but those people will never vote Conservative.

The swing Liberal-Conservative voters. The ones who saved Martin's bacon in 2004 and put Harper in the PMO in 2006 are the one's who count and will decide if Harper can win another majority.

If anything, I think the Liberals need to go into an election with as high of support as possible. They will only lose English Canadian support once Dion starts speaking to everyone. I can't even imagine a leadership debate.
From what I've seen of Dion, he'll be an absolutely terrible campaigner, and he's going to stumble and fall all the way to the finish.

If the Liberals don't hit 30% going in, the CPC stands a good chance of increasing their seat total.

I think it's more like the Liberals hitting 35% going in. Dion can be expected to lose 5 points on the campaign trail. If the Liberas aren't at 30% going in then a majority is Harper's to lose.

jdobbin · April 6, 2007

The full CP on the latest Decima poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070405/...nal/tories_poll

Stephen Harper's Conservatives are edging closer to support levels needed to win their coveted majority, a new poll suggests.
But the Decima survey also indicates voters are extremely volatile - especially in Ontario and Quebec - and forcing an election this spring remains a risky proposition for the prime minister. The poll, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, put Tory support at 39 per cent - nine points ahead of the Liberals and within spitting distance of the 40 per cent mark generally needed to secure a majority.

The NDP were at 13 per cent, and the Greens and Bloc Quebecois were at eight per cent each.

Ontario continues to go back and forth.

Over the past seven weeks, Decima's weekly polls have put the Tories ahead three times in Ontario, the Liberals ahead three times and the two parties tied once. The most recent poll, conducted March 30-April 2, put the Tories ahead with 42 per cent to the Liberals' 36 per cent, the NDP's 11 per cent and the Green Party's nine per cent.

jdobbin · April 8, 2007

Latest poll from SES. Conservatives are still short of majority territory.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070408/...canada_poll_col

The SES Research survey showed Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have the support of 36 percent of decided voters while the Liberals have 33 percent. The poll, completed April 5, showed the left-leaning New Democrats with 16 percent support and the separatist Bloc Quebecois at 10 percent.
The previous poll, conducted on February 8, showed the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 33 percent while the NDP had 17 percent support and the Bloc Quebecois was unchanged at 10 percent.

I guess Harper could roll the dice and see what happens.

As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

Michael Bluth · April 8, 2007

I guess Harper could roll the dice and see what happens.
As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

As a positive the Conservatives are the only party to be growing their support.

So the trend line is in the right direction.

For whatever reason the SES polls are continually showing the Conservatives with the lowest support of all the major polling companies. That being said they were the most accurate pollster in the last two elections.

Good news for the Conservatives.

geoffrey · April 8, 2007

As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

Perhaps if spring comes with much more progress in Afghanistan (a weakened spring offensive from the Taliban) the CPC is in luck. It's early to be hopeful for more peace yet, but it seems the Taliban are a little late out of hibernation so far. It will be 31 degrees in Kandahar today. Spring is here.

Catchme · April 8, 2007

Latest poll from SES. Conservatives are still short of majority territory.
Conservatives 36 percent

Liberals 33 percent.

New Democrats 16 percent

Bloc Quebecois 10 percent.

I guess Harper could roll the dice and see what happens.

As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

Green Party 6 percent was missing, though no loss, as a fringe party their future is in dire straights.

The environment will play more of a role than Afghanistan IMV. Though the military ads are not playing well either.

Michael Bluth · April 8, 2007

Green Party 6 percent was missing, though no loss, as a fringe party their future is in dire straights.
The environment will play more of a role than Afghanistan IMV. Though the military ads are not playing well either.

I hope, and think, you are right.

The Liberals are really in a tight spot on the environment. They are stuck to saying Canada can get rich by going green and attacking the Conservatives programs as Liberal retreads.

Shouldn't the Liberals be happy these programs are being represented?

With John Baird as the new minister the Conservatives have turned the Environment into an issue they aren't vulnerable on.

jdobbin · April 8, 2007

Perhaps if spring comes with much more progress in Afghanistan (a weakened spring offensive from the Taliban) the CPC is in luck. It's early to be hopeful for more peace yet, but it seems the Taliban are a little late out of hibernation so far. It will be 31 degrees in Kandahar today. Spring is here.

Flooding and the snowfall in the mountains are still affecting things in Afghanistan as far a spring goes.

Weakened spring offensive still meant six NATO soldiers killed today.

Correction: Six Canadians killed today.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Michael Bluth · April 8, 2007

Flooding and the snowfall in the mountains are still affecting things in Afghanistan as far a spring goes.
Weakened spring offensive still meant six NATO soldiers killed today.

Spring is the biggest threat for attacks due to weather. The extremes of winter and summer weather there lead to lulls in the fighting.

For whatever reason the fighting this spring has been a lot less intense than feared.