Canadian Political Polls

[blueblood]

Ipsos Reid has the Tories at 40% and the Libs at 29%, uh oh!! Just seen it on MDL.

[Michael Bluth]

Ipsos Reid has the Tories at 40% and the Libs at 29%, uh oh!! Just seen it on MDL.

That's 170-seat majority territory.

[jdobbin]

Ipsos Reid has the Tories at 40% and the Libs at 29%, uh oh!! Just seen it on MDL.

Here is the National Post story on it.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/st...2677de945bf&k=0

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harpers' Conservatives have surged to 40% in popular opinion and entered majority government territory, a new poll says.

The poll, conducted exclusively by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global Television after the Harper government delivered its new budget, shows the Tories have opened up an 11-point lead nationally over Stéphane Dion's Liberals.

Expect Harper to call the election next week if the election in Quebec goes his way.

[Canadian Blue]

Apparently the Liberal's jumped 7 points in Alberta, but everywhere else they are falling. I think the Green Party is more likely to fade away, they have been dropping in the last few polls that I've seen, while the NDP is regaining strength.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election this spring. But I think Harper will want to be sure that he can make gain's, or at the very least hold on to government before taking a gamble.

[Saturn]

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harpers' Conservatives have surged to 40% in popular opinion and entered majority government territory, a new poll says.

The poll, conducted exclusively by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global Television after the Harper government delivered its new budget, shows the Tories have opened up an 11-point lead nationally over Stéphane Dion's Liberals.

Expect Harper to call the election next week if the election in Quebec goes his way.

Hehe, it figures that a few hundred bucks of handouts for parents should buy you 5-6% support - translating into 20% more seats in the House. The interesting question is what excuse Harper can make up now for calling an election.

[jdobbin]

Apparently the Liberal's jumped 7 points in Alberta, but everywhere else they are falling. I think the Green Party is more likely to fade away, they have been dropping in the last few polls that I've seen, while the NDP is regaining strength.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have an election this spring. But I think Harper will want to be sure that he can make gain's, or at the very least hold on to government before taking a gamble.

The pollster said that a month from now, it is anyone's guess. Things are that volatile. I figure if he doesn't call in the next several days for whatever reason that next month's polls could be affected by any number of things such as Afghanistan, Quebec politics or some unforeseen thing like war with Iran.

[Michael Bluth]

The pollster said that a month from now, it is anyone's guess. Things are that volatile. I figure if he doesn't call in the next several days for whatever reason that next month's polls could be affected by any number of things such as Afghanistan, Quebec politics or some unforeseen thing like war with Iran.

The exact quote was "Things can look very different a month from now."

Must you really falsify everything to make the Liberals look better than they do???

Lack of honesty is what cost the Liberals the last election. Keep staying true to form.

[Canuck E Stan]

delete

[Michael Bluth]

Apparently the Liberal's jumped 7 points in Alberta, but everywhere else they are falling. I think the Green Party is more likely to fade away, they have been dropping in the last few polls that I've seen, while the NDP is regaining strength.

It's a great poll for the Conservatives.

A ten-point lead in Ontario?! Within a point of the Liberals in Quebec.

The only thing holding the Conservatives back from holding a spring election is questions about how much volunteer support they'll get. I think they'll get a ton of support now.

It's more and more looking like a spring election leading to a Conservative majority!!!

[Canadian Blue]

But then again an election can go either way, look at what happened in the last election. I'm not sure Harper is willing to gamble his chance for a majority if he believes that his chances can improve more so in the next few months.

From what I understand the Conservative's currently have a well oiled machine ready for the election. They've had boot camps, and it seem's that the big blue machine is ready to go.

I wonder how ready the other parties are for the election though.

[jdobbin]

But then again an election can go either way, look at what happened in the last election. I'm not sure Harper is willing to gamble his chance for a majority if he believes that his chances can improve more so in the next few months.

Charest looked like a winner when the Quebec election was called. The last poll has the PQ ahead in minority territory.

[Canadian Blue]

The thing is the election can go anyway right now. Last poll I checked there was a three way race, and the PQ is barely ahead of the Liberal's. But who know's, we could see a massive upset if the ADQ somehow was able to squeeze by with a minority.

Unless Dion can somehow amaze everyone on the campaign trail, I don't see how he could win an election. For that matter it doesn't even really seem many in the Liberal Party are really enthused about his leadership, and might hope that he would step down after losing an election. Something similar to what happened to Joe Clark in the early 80's.

[ScottSA]

It's hard to see how the numbers will change significantly in the weeks to come, barring a major unforeseen event. The Liberals platform since 1993 has consisted of "the other guys are scary", a platform which finally over-reached itself in the farcical "soldiers in the streets" nonsense. Then what was left of the Liberal shell went into meltdown while the NDP maintained its chronic struggle to stay out of rumphood, and Canadians got a chance to see that the Killing Fields and the Conservative government weren't synonymous after all.

The truth is that Harper is by far the most intelligent PM we've had in living memory; similar to Trudeau in political smarts, but smart enough to know how not to make his personality a lightening rod...something Trudeau never learned. And his opposition is...well, to put it charitably...a used car salesman and a bumbling idiot.

[jbg]

And given the opinion of Canadians in this latest poll on global warming, I think Harper either has to pass the bill or explain why going to the polls to elect a majority with him will be good for the environment.

And let the LPOC explain how tanking the economy is good for anyone but such ivory tower hifalutin types like Al Gore and David Suzuki. You know, the "beer and popcorn" snobbery.

[jdobbin]

The thing is the election can go anyway right now. Last poll I checked there was a three way race, and the PQ is barely ahead of the Liberal's. But who know's, we could see a massive upset if the ADQ somehow was able to squeeze by with a minority.

Unless Dion can somehow amaze everyone on the campaign trail, I don't see how he could win an election. For that matter it doesn't even really seem many in the Liberal Party are really enthused about his leadership, and might hope that he would step down after losing an election. Something similar to what happened to Joe Clark in the early 80's.

I don't know that he can win right now either. I just think the race federally could be just short of majority territory for the Tories. As I said, if Harper thinks the time is right, he'll call it the next week. Any longer and the bump following the budget might level off just as Dion's bump from the leadership convention leveled off.

[jdobbin]

And let the LPOC explain how tanking the economy is good for anyone but such ivory tower hifalutin types like Al Gore and David Suzuki. You know, the "beer and popcorn" snobbery.

So you think the Tories should reject their own bill?

[Michael Bluth]

Unless Dion can somehow amaze everyone on the campaign trail, I don't see how he could win an election. For that matter it doesn't even really seem many in the Liberal Party are really enthused about his leadership, and might hope that he would step down after losing an election. Something similar to what happened to Joe Clark in the early 80's.

Dion might step down, but it's doubtful. Liberals always give their leader two kicks at the can.

Dion would have to do worse than Turner did in 1984 for a serious chance at being forced out.

[jdobbin]

It's hard to see how the numbers will change significantly in the weeks to come, barring a major unforeseen event. The Liberals platform since 1993 has consisted of "the other guys are scary", a platform which finally over-reached itself in the farcical "soldiers in the streets" nonsense. Then what was left of the Liberal shell went into meltdown while the NDP maintained its chronic struggle to stay out of rumphood, and Canadians got a chance to see that the Killing Fields and the Conservative government weren't synonymous after all.

The truth is that Harper is by far the most intelligent PM we've had in living memory; similar to Trudeau in political smarts, but smart enough to know how not to make his personality a lightening rod...something Trudeau never learned. And his opposition is...well, to put it charitably...a used car salesman and a bumbling idiot.

Given Harper's personality has been an issue the last week, he might be more similar to Trudeau in that regard too.

And politics is all about the unforeseen. At the moment, it looks like he can win a majority if the figures stay the same. But he has said he doesn't want an election and the budget will pass. He will have to have a fairly strong pretext to call one now.

[jbg]

And let the LPOC explain how tanking the economy is good for anyone but such ivory tower hifalutin types like Al Gore and David Suzuki. You know, the "beer and popcorn" snobbery.

So you think the Tories should reject their own bill?

I thought comeone said the Liberals were writing the bill and making it a money bill.

[jdobbin]

I thought comeone said the Liberals were writing the bill and making it a money bill.

They've added amendments that have yet to pass committee. It is still some time from having a vote on it.

[jbg]

I thought comeone said the Liberals were writing the bill and making it a money bill.

They've added amendments that have yet to pass committee. It is still some time from having a vote on it.

Depending on what's in the "amendments" the CPC might very well want the bill to fall, even if it's by having a bunch of their members have family obligations.

[Canuck E Stan]

Dion would have to do worse than Turner did in 1984 for a serious chance at being forced out.

Watch it happen.

Too many in his own party are disappointed in him and will love to have an excuse to have him outed.

There won't be a second chance with Dion.

[Canadian Blue]

And let the LPOC explain how tanking the economy is good for anyone but such ivory tower hifalutin types like Al Gore and David Suzuki. You know, the "beer and popcorn" snobbery.

I think Harper is attempting to green up the Conservative image.

[jdobbin]

Depending on what's in the "amendments" the CPC might very well want the bill to fall, even if it's by having a bunch of their members have family obligations.

I don't doubt that they may have a strategy that includes letting their bill fail. It will still be a while before it comes to a vote and might not be within their timetable if that is the next several days.

[Michael Bluth]

I don't doubt that they may have a strategy that includes letting their bill fail. It will still be a while before it comes to a vote and might not be within their timetable if that is the next several days.

Defeat next week or the week after and the Conservatives can hold the vote on the Monday before the May long weekend.

There are a number of things the Conservatives can do to lead to an election on their timeline.