Quebec, Alberta & Federal Government

[August1991]

In Fall 2026, the CAQ will not win re-election. I suspect that it will be a PQ majority. (The Liberals have no chance... )

Alberta? If anything, some people now prefer a referendum.

And we have a federal government with a very, very ambitious clueless PM - but a bare minority.

Hmmm.

Edited May 18 by August1991

[CdnFox]

9 hours ago, August1991 said:

In Fall 2026, the CAQ will not win re-election. I suspect that it will be a PQ majority. (The Liberals have no chance... )

Alberta? If anything, some people now prefer a referendum.

And we have a federal government with a very, very ambitious clueless PM - but a bare minority.

Hmmm.

Interesting times  

 

[August1991]

Carney has a razor-thin majority - dependent on the NPD (look at the members) or BQ.

For votes, he needs a good whip.

Unlike Mulroney or Chretien, Carney is not a good caucus leader.

 

[August1991]

I have always thought that a US President without partisan Senate support is a goner.

And a Canadian federal PM without caucus support is a loser.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

Carney has a razor-thin majority - dependent on the NPD (look at the members) or BQ.

For votes, he needs a good whip.

Unlike Mulroney or Chretien, Carney is not a good caucus leader.

 

No, he has a strong minority. He does not have a majority.

Agreed though that he doesn't seem to be a very good caucus leader

[August1991]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

No, he has a strong minority. He does not have a majority.

Agreed though that he doesn't seem to be a very good caucus leader

Correct. Razor-thin majority.

====

Have you read Crosbie's book No Holds Barred?

In 1971 or so, he wanted to defeat Smallwood - a member from Labrador had the deciding vote.

Such is politics.

Carney is forced to do such deals now.

[August1991]

I saw Mulroney in caucus. In his office, among cabinet ministers. In public, in private, he was a master.

I saw Chretien in private and random crowds. He was remarkable.

Chretien liked meeting people, kids in particular.

[August1991]

Meech Lake

1995

According to the ever predictable CBC's Andrew Coyne and so-called Quebec expert Chantal Hebert:

"Let's see."

====

Disagree. Carney did not win a clear majority.

The PQ will win in 2026.
Alberta will hold a referendum. (It will lose - but the vote will be higher than Quebec's 1980).

Think:

In 1980, 40% of people in Quebec wanted a sovereign state.

 

[CdnFox]

12 hours ago, August1991 said:

Correct. Razor-thin majority.

====

Are you being deliberately stupid? Is this like your "kryptonite" routine?

There's no majority, razor thin or otherwise. It's a minority.  You make yourself look like a tard when you insist things are true when you know they're not. 

 

[August1991]

On 5/20/2025 at 3:47 PM, CdnFox said:

Are you being deliberately stupid? Is this like your "kryptonite" routine?

There's no majority, razor thin or otherwise. It's a minority.  You make yourself look like a tard when you insist things are true when you know they're not. 

 

Agreed. It's a minority.

But Carney is a very competitive guy. He wants to win. And he will do whatever it requires to get a majority.

(I reckon many women voted for him the same way people buy at Walmart/Costco. I want a smart guy on my side.)

Edited Thursday at 05:41 AM by August1991

[CdnFox]

32 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Agreed. It's a minority.

But Carney is a very competitive guy. He wants to win. And he will do whatever it requires to get a majority.

(I reckon many women voted for him the same way people buy at Walmart/Costco. I want a smart guy on my side.)

Well I think he's pulled about every trick he can and he's still short. And he really doesn't need to, having a minority gives him a lot of power as to when to call the next election. We saw Trudeau play that to his advantage more than once

The MVP is going to be down for the count for at least a year and a half possibly 2 years. Because they didn't reach official opposition status they're not getting there rebate back from the government for the election. There's a very real possibility they may go bankrupt, but at the very least they're not going to be in a position even with a new leader to fight an election anytime soon

So it shouldn't be hard for carney to come up with bills to pass that either make the surviving seven NDP happy or make the block happy or even in some circumstances make the CPC happy. He may not have a free hand but he won't be very restrained.

Then all he has to do is wait for the next manufactured crisis, probably shouldn't be hard to come up with one seeing as he's good buddies now with trump. Then call an election, claim it's the most consequential election of our lifetime, and try and scare everyone into giving him a majority.

In many ways this whole thing works out better for him this way, and his ability to form a majority is pretty limited at this point.

[August1991]

On 5/22/2025 at 2:16 AM, CdnFox said:

...

So it shouldn't be hard for carney to come up with bills to pass that either make the surviving seven NDP happy or make the block happy or even in some circumstances make the CPC happy. He may not have a free hand but he won't be very restrained.

.....

Agreed.

But you miss the larger picture.

[CdnFox]

39 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Agreed.

But you miss the larger picture.

Okay, so what's the larger picture. And why are you making me ask instead of just saying it?

[August1991]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Okay, so what's the larger picture. And why are you making me ask instead of just saying it?

The PQ will get elected in 2026.

And there will be a referendum in Alberta.

=====

And many people (immigrants) who came to Ontario will think about how to help their kids move south.

Ontario is Michigan - and Toronto is Detroit.