Liberal Leadership Race

[August1991]

CalgaryGrit has done the gruntwork calculation to make predictions for first-ballot support of the different party leadership candidates. Given the number of new members each candidate has signed up (stats linked above), and ex-officia delegates who have announce their support, it's possible to make a reasonable prediction.

Of course, when the delegate selection voting takes place at the end of September, it will then be possible to do serious polling.

Nevertheless, CalgaryGrit came up with the following credible predictions:

Michael Ignatieff 22.9%

Gerard Kennedy 18.4%

Bob Rae 15.8%

Stephane Dion 14.4%

Joe Volpe 8.8%

Ken Dryden 8.6%

Scott Brison 7.4%

Carolyn Bennett 1.7%

Martha Hall Findlay 1.6%

Hedy Fry 0.4%

I don't think Kennedy will do that well on the first ballot, but it's clear that there are two tiers among the candidates. More important, these predictions make it plain that the delegates' second choice for leader is the key piece of information to be polled.

Where will Dryden's or Volpe's delegates go if their first choice is eliminated? That's the question.

I suspect the delegate selection will be as much about second choices as it is about first choices.

[jdobbin]

I still don't know who I support in the leadership election.

[geoffrey]

I don't think Kennedy will do that well on the first ballot, but it's clear that there are two tiers among the candidates. More important, these predictions make it plain that the delegates' second choice for leader is the key piece of information to be polled.

I think Ignatieff will pick up more momentum into the vote. It'll be a race between him and Rae, with Dion holding his own with the Quebecois.

Where will Dryden's or Volpe's delegates go if their first choice is eliminated? That's the question.

I'd say Dryden's would likely go to Rae, as they share many socialist ideals. Volpe is a tougher call, maybe to Kennedy or Brison (assuming Brison isn't done himself, which is more likely)? That's a very tough call though.

I suspect the delegate selection will be as much about second choices as it is about first choices.

With that many candidates, of course it will. I suspect we'll see at least a few drop before the vote though.