A wasted win?

[Hicksey]

With such a weak minority, I find it doubtful Harper will get much of his agenda through the house. The one notable exception -- the federal accountability bill -- which will nevertheless be hotly debated because it includes such things as an accountable judiciary, devolution of powers to the provinces and an elected senate. Other than solving the funding mismatches between Ottawa and the different regions, the rest of Harper's platform is nearly unilaterally opposed by all three opposition parties. So unless he shelves his agenda, the one I elected him for, he'll get nothing done.

Agree? Disagree?

Correction ... out numbered 3 to 2. Oops.

[geoffrey]

With such a weak minority, I find it doubtful Harper will get much of his agenda through the house. The one notable exception -- the federal accountability bill -- which will nevertheless be hotly debated because it includes such things as an accountable judiciary, devolution of powers to the provinces and an elected senate. Other than solving the funding mismatches between Ottawa and the different regions, the rest of Harper's platform is nearly unilaterally opposed by all three opposition parties. So unless he shelves his agenda, the one I elected him for, he'll get nothing done.

Agree? Disagree?

Somewhat agree. The accountability bill will pass. Remember that an election is pending already, because of the minority situation. If Harper constructed his own failure right now, he'd probably be re-elected majority. Who can vote against accountability and face re-election? If he makes it a confidence bill, then it will pass.

The GST cut will be a tough sell, the NDP will vote against. The Liberals and the Bloc both might find it in their best interests to support such a measure.

The child-care program will die, and the Liberals would have to ram their's through on a private members bill, which is likely to fail as well. No child-care for a few more years folks (hopefully we forget that apparently we have a divine right for the government to give us everything by then too).

Quebec stands to win the most. The Bloc and CPC will work hand in hand during this. The CPC also has the most to gain from Quebec, so they are likely to want to portray a positive image there.

The most important position in Harper's cabinet will be his House leader, as the negotions of when and where and how during this parliment will be very cruical. I'm hoping for Jason Kenney in this spot.

[normanchateau]

With such a weak minority, I find it doubtful Harper will get much of his agenda through the house. The one notable exception -- the federal accountability bill -- which will nevertheless be hotly debated because it includes such things as an accountable judiciary, devolution of powers to the provinces and an elected senate. Other than solving the funding mismatches between Ottawa and the different regions, the rest of Harper's platform is nearly unilaterally opposed by all three opposition parties. So unless he shelves his agenda, the one I elected him for, he'll get nothing done.

Agree? Disagree?

Mainly agree with your points but since I disagreed with much of Harper's agenda (Accountability bill excluded), I view this as good news.

Must say I hope he's unsuccessful in cancelling the income tax cuts that were scheduled for 2006 and introduced in the November, 2005 Liberal budget. I was looking forward to more takehome pay this year but if Harper is successful in cancelling the income tax cuts, it's not an accomplishment to be proud of. I suppose cancelling the income tax cuts was necessary to finance the loss of billions in tax revenue caused by Harper cancelling the capital gains tax but what percentage of Canadians earning less than $100,000 per year will benefit from this?

Harper made far too many expensive promises in this campaign but if he can't deliver on them because of the combined opposition, it's a win/win situation. Canadians win because Harper can't shovel more money out of the back of the truck. Harper wins because he can blame his failure to keep his promises on the opposition.

With the Liberals and NDP capable of outvoting CPC on any measure, CPC can only govern by making deals with the BQ. Is this what Harper meant by Stand up for Canada? A deal with the Separatists? A Harper/Duceppe pact worthy of Molotov and Ribbentrop? I'm sure the wily Duceppe will go for it if it means his snout in the trough snorting up funds for Quebec (a la Mulroney) from the rest of Canada. But will Harper go for it or will he show integrity? Bets anyone?

[sage]

The fundamental error in your reasoning Norman is that you surmise the Liberals and NDP will never vote for a measure the Tories are proposing, and thus they have to rely on the Bloc. I don't think the Lib's and NDP will be as obstructive as you suggest. Especially the Lib's, now without a leader they will need 6-8 months just to get their house in order and won't be looking at going to the polls right away.

Also the opposition has to give some deference to the wishes of the Canadian electorate. I would think the child care policy and GST cut would be issues the opposition might bend on. Others like Kyoto will be dead for the Tories.

I actually think now is the perfect time for Harper to reintroduce SSM. On a fee vote, it would likely not pass, the issue would hopefully die, and you take alot of ammunition away from the Lib's the next time around.

[scribblet]

The fundamental error in your reasoning Norman is that you surmise the Liberals and NDP will never vote for a measure the Tories are proposing, and thus they have to rely on the Bloc. I don't think the Lib's and NDP will be as obstructive as you suggest. Especially the Lib's, now without a leader they will need 6-8 months just to get their house in order and won't be looking at going to the polls right away.

Also the opposition has to give some deference to the wishes of the Canadian electorate. I would think the child care policy and GST cut would be issues the opposition might bend on. Others like Kyoto will be dead for the Tories.

I actually think now is the perfect time for Harper to reintroduce SSM. On a fee vote, it would likely not pass, the issue would hopefully die, and you take alot of ammunition away from the Lib's the next time around.

Very reasonable, that makes sense. I think fixed election dates will pass too, aren't the NDP on board with that one? As far as shovelling money out of a truck, Martin did better at than than Harper. I do expect the liberals in particular to be obstructionist

[Argus]

With such a weak minority, I find it doubtful Harper will get much of his agenda through the house. The one notable exception -- the federal accountability bill -- which will nevertheless be hotly debated because it includes such things as an accountable judiciary, devolution of powers to the provinces and an elected senate. Other than solving the funding mismatches between Ottawa and the different regions, the rest of Harper's platform is nearly unilaterally opposed by all three opposition parties. So unless he shelves his agenda, the one I elected him for, he'll get nothing done.

Agree? Disagree?

Correction ... out numbered 3 to 2. Oops.

Think of it as an audition. All the Tories really need to do is NOT come off as scary. After a year and a half of PM Harper it's going to be damned hard for the Liberals to run another "he's a big scary guy" campaign. And that was basically all they had going for them the last four elections. The tories will get the accountabilty act through, much of their crime bill, should easily be able to get through changes on appointments to public bodies like boards and commissions (though perhaps not the senate), and campaign financing reform. The latter will screw the Liberals more than anyone. They get the great majority of their financing from big donatations and corporate entities. Lowering the ceiling to a few hundred bucks and banning donations from companies and organizations will hammer them just when they're in deep fiscal trouble. They should be able to get in extra money for the miltary and police, and, with the BQ's help (though they have to be careful there) should be able to do some power rearranging between the feds and the provinces. They'll also have a lot of leeway with their budget. I don't see the opposition ganging up to vote it down unless it's really extreme. They certainly won't do so because, for example, funding for Heritage Canada was cut by 90%.

[tml12]

Let us hope, Harper majority in approx. 2-3 years...

[Shakeyhands]

First off, Congratulations to all of our Conservative members here. You know I kind of like the way things turned out last night. I think its fabulous that Martin is stepping down, our next leader will be someone who comes from a united party, none of this Chretien/Martin stuff.

The CPC's fiscal policies never bothered me so much as their social direction and I think with this government shaped the way it is, it solves all of that. I look forward to seeing what kind of a cabinet Harper builds.

[sage]

I agree with Argus, and would also mention that the NDP is not going to want to go to the polls either in the next little while given their surprising strength in this Parliament.

[Hicksey]

All good points.

The major thing I think we have going for us is that with the Liberals fighting their leadership and the NDP not wanting to give up the power they gained in this election -- we have time. Harper will get some things through I do admit. Much of his accountability bill will fly without much debate, though I believe parts will hold it up as discussed before. I overlooked the crime bill which I think any leader that opposes it will pay the price on the next election day. Nowhere for Harper to go but up there because he didn't make any headway into the 416 and not nearly as much into the 905 as they were looking to.

The one riding we didn't get that would have been a prize for me? Newmarket. Belinda Stronach's riding. Would have been nice to send that opportunist hypocrite packing.

[shoop]

Thanks for that.

The divisions in the Liberal party are pretty deep. It will be very interesting to see how their leadership goes.

If it ends up being a fight between a Martinite and a Chretienite in the leadership then it is doubtful a new leader will do much. If you end up with two or three candidates respectively splitting the Martin and Chretien supporters than things will be a lot different.

First off, Congratulations to all of our Conservative members here. You know I kind of like the way things turned out last night. I think its fabulous that Martin is stepping down, our next leader will be someone who comes from a united party, none of this Chretien/Martin stuff.

[Hicksey]

I'm not sure how its going to go. I think this will be solved pretty quickly. If Harper doesn't impress, their numbers suggest they may be able to take the country back from us under a united leadership. If I see this, I know they do. So my belief is that their leadership will go on with this in mind.

Thanks for that.

The divisions in the Liberal party are pretty deep. It will be very interesting to see how their leadership goes.

If it ends up being a fight between a Martinite and a Chretienite in the leadership then it is doubtful a new leader will do much. If you end up with two or three candidates respectively splitting the Martin and Chretien supporters than things will be a lot different.

First off, Congratulations to all of our Conservative members here. You know I kind of like the way things turned out last night. I think its fabulous that Martin is stepping down, our next leader will be someone who comes from a united party, none of this Chretien/Martin stuff.

[Wilber]

I agree with Argus. I think much is possible. The Liberals would need the support of both NDP and BQ members to bring down the government. I'm no expert on Quebec politics but the rise in the federalist vote indicates to me that a majority of Quebec will expect the BQ to act as a national party and not a nationalist party in Parliament.

The accountability legislation will pass as will the changes regarding appointments. Only the Liberals would have reason to oppose it and would do so at their peril.

Mandatory minimum sentencing for gun related crimes will also pass. Both the Liberals and NDP would have to renege on campaign promises to vote against it. They both know there is an appetite for stronger law enforcement.

There may also be an appetite for some sort of political reform within the NDP and BQ, particularly in the Senate. We don't know because the Liberals have never made any serious proposals.

If there are to be no tax cuts or child care subsidies it will be because the Liberals and NDP block them. They will have to wear that.

There will probably be a SSM vote and it will fail. Hopefully that will be the end of it.

Abortion will remain a non issue as Harper said it would.

Paul Martin and the Liberals fought two campaigns based on a platform of little more than fear and division. Good riddance to him and shame on the Liberals.

My only concern is that the Liberals were not spanked hard enough to make the changes they need if they want to be a party that can fight an election on issues instead of fear. I'm afraid they will be tempted to offer us the same old banger with nothing more than a new paint job and redesigned grill.

It will be interesting to see if Harper is up to the task of creating constructive change with minority government. If he can it will make him pretty remarkable individual. It will also be interesting to see if the Liberals extend their campaign of fear and division into the next Parliament.

[theloniusfleabag]

I also agree with Argus' assessment of the situation.

Think of it as an audition. All the Tories really need to do is NOT come off as scary. After a year and a half of PM Harper it's going to be damned hard for the Liberals to run another "he's a big scary guy" campaign

It should not be too hard for Harper to avoid being seen as 'too hard line', not without a majority. He pretty much has to stay near the political middle, and I hope he realizes that most Canadians are there too.

[tml12]

I also agree with Argus' assessment of the situation.

Think of it as an audition. All the Tories really need to do is NOT come off as scary. After a year and a half of PM Harper it's going to be damned hard for the Liberals to run another "he's a big scary guy" campaign

It should not be too hard for Harper to avoid being seen as 'too hard line', not without a majority. He pretty much has to stay near the political middle, and I hope he realizes that most Canadians are there too.

And continue to unveil more Liberal corruption...

[geoffrey]

And continue to unveil more Liberal corruption...

Nah, all the paper is burned already. Didn't you see the fire from where you are last night tml?

[shoop]

Agreed, but one has to wonder what Harper does with the social agenda.

Gotta face facts and recognize that SSM and abortion are issues that kill the party.

Thankfully, he can sell it in caucus that they don't have the numbers to win votes on those issues so there is no reason to bring them up.

If either issue goes to a vote in parliament, Harper does not deserve a majority.

It should not be too hard for Harper to avoid being seen as 'too hard line', not without a majority. He pretty much has to stay near the political middle, and I hope he realizes that most Canadians are there too.

[tml12]

Agreed, but one has to wonder what Harper does with the social agenda.

Gotta face facts and recognize that SSM and abortion are issues that kill the party.

Thankfully, he can sell it in caucus that they don't have the numbers to win votes on those issues so there is no reason to bring them up.

If either issue goes to a vote in parliament, Harper does not deserve a majority.

It should not be too hard for Harper to avoid being seen as 'too hard line', not without a majority. He pretty much has to stay near the political middle, and I hope he realizes that most Canadians are there too.

Abortion won't go to Parliament but SSM will...

Look, when it is over it is over. We'll live with the result and know that Prime Minister Harper (am I the only one who gets giddy when they write that now? ) will live with the decision.

[tml12]

And continue to unveil more Liberal corruption...

Nah, all the paper is burned already. Didn't you see the fire from where you are last night tml?

It is too bad I couldn't find the RCMP's phone number.

[geoffrey]

Abortion won't go to Parliament but SSM will...

Look, when it is over it is over. We'll live with the result and know that Prime Minister Harper (am I the only one who gets giddy when they write that now? ) will live with the decision.

The real tradegy is that with the minority government, he'll have to keep the 'crazies' quiet. I personally enjoy hearing from people like Anders, Thompson and Hanger (who were all at HQ last night, Anders is halarious, he was dancing around in the foyer area, looked halarious). They'll have not only the backbench, but the back corner of the backbench if we hope to break into Toronto and Vancouver.

[shoop]

I really hope it doesn't. If it does that wins the Liberals the next election.

Not giddy about writing PM Harper, but I am not a schoolgirl either

Abortion won't go to Parliament but SSM will...

Look, when it is over it is over. We'll live with the result and know that Prime Minister Harper (am I the only one who gets giddy when they write that now? ) will live with the decision.

[geoffrey]

I really hope it doesn't. If it does that wins the Liberals the next election.

Not giddy about writing PM Harper, but I am not a schoolgirl either

I figure most Canadians don't care. If the CPC show themselves as tolerant, and Harper makes a good case for his Civil Unions as a compromise (what democracy is supposed to be about), Canadians won't even give the issue second thought.

It was a non-issue this election too.

I prefer the Right Honourable Stephen Harper.

[Hicksey]

Agreed, but one has to wonder what Harper does with the social agenda.

Gotta face facts and recognize that SSM and abortion are issues that kill the party.

Thankfully, he can sell it in caucus that they don't have the numbers to win votes on those issues so there is no reason to bring them up.

If either issue goes to a vote in parliament, Harper does not deserve a majority.

It should not be too hard for Harper to avoid being seen as 'too hard line', not without a majority. He pretty much has to stay near the political middle, and I hope he realizes that most Canadians are there too.

In the beginning I begged my local guy to make some calls and when he got someone to listen to tell them not to trot them out all unless it was a promise not to bring them before parliament.

We'd have a majority right now if he was sucessful.

[tml12]

I really hope it doesn't. If it does that wins the Liberals the next election.

Not giddy about writing PM Harper, but I am not a schoolgirl either

Abortion won't go to Parliament but SSM will...

Look, when it is over it is over. We'll live with the result and know that Prime Minister Harper (am I the only one who gets giddy when they write that now? ) will live with the decision.

That was LOW Shoop... :angry:

[tml12]

I really hope it doesn't. If it does that wins the Liberals the next election.

Not giddy about writing PM Harper, but I am not a schoolgirl either

Abortion won't go to Parliament but SSM will...

Look, when it is over it is over. We'll live with the result and know that Prime Minister Harper (am I the only one who gets giddy when they write that now? ) will live with the decision.

That was LOW Shoop... :angry:

Now that I've read the other part of your post though, Harper did promise the more socially right-wing part of his party that he would bring it up as a free vote and he has to. It will be very close...as another post started recounts, we would need to know how many anti-SSM Liberals won.