Expert Seat Projections..

[SamStranger]

Is their a website with expert seat Projections? If so, tell me a few.

Also feel free to give yours... heres mine.

Con 162

Lib 78

Ndp 18

Bloc 50

I admit my numbers of Conservative might be a little too high... but bet your bottom dollar they will hit the 155 mark for sure.

[shoop]

The Hill and Knowlton prediction site is the best one out there. Not sophisticated enough to examine nuances in polls but they apply national numbers to riding projections pretty well. There is even a tool for you to get projection numbers based on inputing national support levels of your choosing.

H & K Prediction site

On the basis of today's Stretegic Counsel polls the numbers appear as follows:

CPC 165

BQ 65

LPC 51

NDP 27

The Strategic Counsel`s own projection based on those numbers is as follows:

CPC 152

BQ 60

LPC 74

NDP 22

That is probably a better indicator of where things stand. Appears that the H&K predictor has issues accounting for regional differences within a province. (Both models still had Cadman winning in Surrey-North - kinda tough given he is dead and all so I put his seat into the NDP numbers.)

[politika]

Is their a website with expert seat Projections? If so, tell me a few.

Also feel free to give yours... heres mine.

Con 162

Lib 78

Ndp 18

Bloc 50

I admit my numbers of Conservative might be a little too high... but bet your bottom dollar they will hit the 155 mark for sure.

Before I would have though a Conservative minority, but in recent weeks the Conservatives have been ahead in the polls and I expect a majority out of the CPC. After the Liberal add basicly saying are military is for savages I would say the Conservatives are definatly ahead.

[geoffrey]

Using the Hill and Knowlton Model, I got the following (based on SC poll results nation-wide from the G&M today):

CPC 166

BQ 64

LPC 52

NDP 26

I wouldn't take this as accurate, because it seems too generous to both the CPC and the BQ. This is pretty much saying the Liberals will win only 3 maybe 4 seats in Quebec, and call me ignorant, but I just can't see it being that low. This also assumes an extremely strong showing in BC, which may be possible if the BC'ers wait to see the results before they vote.

Who would have thought my 159 seat projection 2 weeks ago for the CPC might actually be low balling it?

Still, I have worries about any further gains past the 152 mentioned in the G&M today. The rest of the riding will be a struggle, some hope in BC and maybe some in the Maritimes, but I fear we might have gained all there is to gain.

[Harare]

Try this one which gives a few:-

Election Predictions

plus the H & K one that Shoop showed above:

[geoffrey]

It's weird, I used the same data from Strategic Counsel, used their model calculator and got a different result then they did.

Awfully funny.

[Argus]

Is their a website with expert seat Projections? If so, tell me a few.

Also feel free to give yours... heres mine.

Con 162

Lib 78

Ndp 18

Bloc 50

I admit my numbers of Conservative might be a little too high... but bet your bottom dollar they will hit the 155 mark for sure.

Uhm....

MapleleafWeb Seat Forecasts

[Argus]

Is their a website with expert seat Projections? If so, tell me a few.

Also feel free to give yours... heres mine.

Con 162

Lib 78

Ndp 18

Bloc 50

I admit my numbers of Conservative might be a little too high... but bet your bottom dollar they will hit the 155 mark for sure.

Here is an even better one, since it gives a detailed, riding by riding breakdown.

Electionpredictions.org

[democraticSPACE]

http://predictions.democraticSPACE.com

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

Current (Jan 15):

Conservative: 135 (115 solid)

Liberal: 82 (59 solid)

Bloc Quebecois: 59 (53 solid)

NDP: 32 (26 solid)