NDP supporters voting strategically?

[shoop]

So the Globe and Mail is hypothesizing about people who are currently supporting the NDP but who could switch to the Liberals to stave off a CPC government this time around.

Globe story

Isn't that what happened in 2004?

Ahh, but here is the rub. In 2004 the NDP got a little less than 16% of the popular vote. (Presumably the strategic voters had all voted Liberal.)

They are currently sitting at 14%.

Which voters are left to swing over to the Liberals to stop the CPC?

[Slavik44]

I would figure very few are actually left to swing to the liberals, I belive this is confirmed by the numbers in the poll. I am interpreting the 1/3 as 1/3 of the 50% which I belive would result in about 16% total, a number that is within the range the NDP has been polling in the past 10 days and the whole election. So if there are swing voters left in the NDP I don't know if we can expect them to be much more than 1% of the total vote, perhaps enough to impact a few tight races.

[shoop]

There is the rub.

The Liberals are so low in support that they are grasping at straws. Nothing they can really do but hope to swing ND supporters. However, Layton's seemingly strong performance in the last parliament was a pyrrhic victory for the Liberals. They gave him a little spending on housing and taxes on business (which they later cut.) While the move saved the Liberal's at the time, it also gave Layton proof of the value an NDP vote has.

It will also help the Conservatives, as long as Harper continues to talk about what he will do as the leader of a minority government.

I would figure very few are actually left to swing to the liberals, I belive this is confirmed by the numbers in the poll. I am interpreting the 1/3 as 1/3 of the 50% which I belive would result in about 16% total, a number that is within the range the NDP has been polling in the past 10 days and the whole election. So if there are swing voters left in the NDP I don't know if we can expect them to be much more than 1% of the total vote, perhaps enough to impact a few tight races.

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[Rovik]

So the Globe and Mail is hypothesizing about people who are currently supporting the NDP but who could switch to the Liberals to stave off a CPC government this time around.

Globe story

Isn't that what happened in 2004?

Ahh, but here is the rub. In 2004 the NDP got a little less than 16% of the popular vote. (Presumably the strategic voters had all voted Liberal.)

They are currently sitting at 14%.

Which voters are left to swing over to the Liberals to stop the CPC?

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Actually the different polls range from 14 to 18% and 4 percent can mean a big difference in votes and seats won.

The Globe and Mail have been pushing this soft NDP vote to Liberals so much that it makes one wonder if they, themselves are advocating it. I can see whay many people believe that the Globe and Mail are big Liberal supporters.

[shoop]

*IF* you take 14% as the NDP base of support that won't switch things are looking bad for the Liberals.

In today's EKOS poll the CPC is up 36-30 with the NDP at 18%. IF that four points all jumps Liberal the CPC will still have a four point lead. And still form government.

Actually the different polls range from 14 to 18% and 4 percent can mean a big difference in votes and seats won.

The Globe and Mail have been pushing this soft NDP vote to Liberals so much that it makes one wonder if they, themselves are advocating it.  I can see whay many people believe that the Globe and Mail are big Liberal supporters.

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