NDP ‘a loser’ in recent byelections, should be ‘very worried’ about hemorrhaging support to Liberals, say political players

CdnFox · July 5, 2023

Recent byelection results should make the NDP rethink their supply-and-confidence deal with the government, says Innovative Research president Greg Lyle.

With the Liberals winning five per cent more votes on average in the last five byelections compared to the 2021 general election—largely at the NDP’s expense—New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh must reconsider if he wants to keep propping up the government going forward, say political insiders.

“These byelection results are going to put more pressure on the NDP to think about the sequence of events where they distance themselves from the Liberals without defeating them in preparation for an election where they’ll try to challenge the Liberals,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, in an interview with The Hill Times.

As i have noted numerous times - when these partnerships happen the junior partner almost ALWAYS pays a price at the polls in the next election. and I say almost because I can't think of any times when it hasn't but I'm assuming there might be one I can't remember or haven't heard of. If we go into the election year and the NDP is still in the non coalition coalition then they are going to get clobbered. There will be almost no chance of disengaging from that arrangement in a fashion that doesn't look cheap and political.

Basically Jaggers has until about September of next year to find a reason to break it off with the Liberals in a way that Canadians buy and that makes the NDP look different than the Liberals. If he cannot pull that off convincingly it's going to become increasingly harder after that and he will likely pay a severe price at the polls.

Which means if it's a minority government the bloc will likely hold the balance of power.