Poll gives Liberals commanding lead

[Canuck E Stan]

Totally agree with you Spar.

We know little about the demographics(gender/age group/time of day of the call, etc.,) of those polled.My 15 year old answered a poll telling them he was an adult.How do they know?

Anybody remember what the polls were like just before Kim Campbell's Conservative defeat.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Anybody remember what the polls were like just before Kim Campbell's Conservative defeat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So what's your prediction, Canuk E Stan?

It seems like we both know who is going to win, I gather, but by how much ... that IS the question!?????????

I'll start it off by betting that the CPC will end up with 129. But I'm prepared to go higher. MUCH higher.

It's your turn to bet!

[shoop]

Six weeks out she was two points down.

The last published poll before the election she was 25 points down and lost by 25.2% on the day of the election.

Source:

1993 Canadian Election info..

Middle of the page, RHS for the polls...

Anybody remember what the polls were like just before Kim Campbell's Conservative defeat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[shoop]

Biblio,

I agree that things are looking pretty good for the CPC right now. But can they hold on to their momentum.

SES numbers for December 11th.

National

Liberals 39

CPC 31

Ontario

Liberals 47

CPC 36

Those two sets of numbers point to a CPC minority. Just don't screw it up...

These upcoming debates will be very important. The most important election debates in over twenty years.

It seems like we both know who is going to win, I gather, but by how much ... that IS the question!?????????

I'll start it off by betting that the CPC will end up with 129.  But I'm prepared to go higher. MUCH higher.

It's your turn to bet!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Biblio Bibuli]

Biblio,

National

Liberals 39

CPC      31

Ontario

Liberals 47

CPC      36

Those two sets of numbers point to a CPC minority. Just don't screw it up...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is obvious to me that you can read between the lines too. Good for you!

I'm so certain that Harper will win, I'd love to put a few hundred bucks on him, but seeing as how my bookies, Paddy Power and tipsport.cz, don't list this electoral race, I'm at my wits end trying to find a reputable bookie that does.

At this popsicle stand they have Martin at 2 to 5 and Harper at 2.5 to 1. :

http://www.gambling911.com/Betting-odds-on...n-Election.html

BTW - Did I tell you that I put $300 on Bush in his last race against Kerry? Doubled my money on that one.

[shoop]

Dude,

You are killing me. I know the *exact* position you are in. When John Paull II died I was 99.9% sure that Ratzinger would get the nod. Sooooo many things pointed to it. I didn't place a bet because I couldn't find a site I trusted.

This is the line I would bet on for that site.

Total Seats Won, Including All Recounts

Conservatives +12.5 seats

But can you trust them. That is the key...

IMHO their odds makers are pretty astute. 60.5 for the over/under for the Bloc is pretty good.

I'm so certain that Harper will win, I'd love to put a few hundred bucks on him, but seeing as how my bookies, Paddy Power and tipsport.cz, don't list this electoral race, I'm at my wits end trying to find a reputable bookie that does.

At this popsicle stand they have Martin at 2 to 5 and Harper at 2.5  to 1. :

http://www.gambling911.com/Betting-odds-on...n-Election.html

BTW - Did I tell you that I put $300 on Bush in his last race against Kerry? Doubled my money on that one.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Biblio Bibuli]

I know the *exact* position you are in. When John Paull II died I was 99.9% sure that Ratzinger would get the nod. Sooooo many things pointed to it. I didn't place a bet because I couldn't find a site I trusted.

I fell asleap on Ratzinger. I went with that Brazilian entry, what's his name .... but once I saw that GWB and two or three OTHER ex-US Presidents attended JP II's funeral, and seeing how Joseph was soooo up front and centre there, I too was ready to switch my bet, had I found a site that I could trust.

My bet on Bush was easy. I made that through my old school pal who still happens to live in the old country and who regularly bets on all kinds of sports at " tipsport.cz . "

And if tipsport.cz carried the upcoming Canadian election today I would ask my school buddy, Jerry, to wager AT LEAST $500 on Harper in an instant.

I KNOW he is going to win!

[normanchateau]

Seat Projections Based on Rolling Poll Average, December 12, 2005

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada/2005.../national.shtml

Liberals 130

CPC 92

NDP 24

BQ 62

[CoachCartman]

CTV News

CTV

This poll, to me, is looking good for the CPC.

Nationally, the numbers look like this (the change from Dec. 6-8 -- at eight points, the widest gap between the Grits and Tories since the campaign started on Nov. 29 -- is in brackets):

* Liberals: 34 (-2)

* Conservatives: 30 (+2)

* NDP: 16 (unchanged)

* Bloc Quebecois: 14 (unchanged)

* Greens: 6 (unchanged)

"The support for the Conservatives is up significantly," Woolstencroft said, although he couldn't say what impact that will have in some of the narrowly-held Liberal ridings.

While the Bloc is overwhelmingly dominant in Quebec, the Conservatives climb into double digits in this poll for the first time in the campaign.

Quebec:

* Bloc Quebecois: 55 per cent (+1)

* Liberals: 26 (-4)

* Conservatives: 10 (+2)

* NDP: 6 (-1)

* Greens: 3 (+1)

BC:

Here are the numbers (the change from the Nov. 24-27 pre-election poll is in brackets):

* Conservatives: 32 (+2)

* Liberals: 30 (-5)

* NDP: 30 (+1)

* Greens: 8 (+2)

and the Prairies:

Here are the numbers (the change from Dec. 6-8 poll is in brackets):

* Conservatives: 60 (+8)

* Liberals: 18 (-9)

* NDP: 14 (-1)

* Greens: 8 (+2)

The Strategic Counsel conducted the poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period. Interviews were conducted on December 8, 10 and 11.

This poll also had a lot of #'s to do with the "Gun Ban". Didn't think they needed posting on this page.

Being from the Prairies, I wonder how the polling numbers can be so different from recent SES polls, atleast, here in the prairies. This poll seems to reflect what people, here are saying. The last SES poll with regional reports had the Liberals way up in the Prairies but I can't find it, so I won't post the numbers.

hope I linked everything right and followed the rules, still new at this....

[normanchateau]

To date, Ipsos-Reid more than other pollsters has tended to show the Liberals and CPC relatively close to each other. Here are the December 13th, 2005, Ipsos-Reid numbers:

Liberals 36%

CPC 27%

NDP 17%

BQ 13%

And in Ontario, the Ipsos-Reid numbers of December 13th show the Liberals with a remarkable 19% lead over the Conservatives.

[shoop]

Cartman, this poll *is* looking very good for the CPC. From the last election they are up slightly, .4% and the Liberals are down 2.7%. Will that be enough to change goverment? Possible given that the Liberals look poised to lose at least 6 seats in Quebec. That remains the CPC has to take a net of 15 seats from the Liberals in the Rest of Canada. Entirely possible...

I wonder if some Quebec riding will be shrewd enough to elect a CPC MP. A surefire cabinet minister.

Those BC numbers are a little disheartening for the CPC, but they are moving in the right direction. With these numbers they would probably lose a seat or two.

Those prairie numbers are great for the Conservatives. Actually puts the possibility of a sweep into play, albeit remotely. There are ten seats the party didn't win on the prairies last election. Anything less than a pickup of four or five should be considered a disappointment with those numbers. Picking up seven or eight is realistic.

The SES numbers have been a little strange. Their last posted results only talk about 'western canada', but it gives the CPC an 11 point lead (44 to 33). I would guestimate that falls roughly inline with these numbers reported in the CTV poll.

This poll, to me, is looking good for the CPC.

Nationally, the numbers look like this (the change from Dec. 6-8 -- at eight points, the widest gap between the Grits and Tories since the campaign started on Nov. 29 -- is in brackets):

    * Liberals: 34 (-2)

    * Conservatives: 30 (+2)

    * NDP: 16 (unchanged)

    * Bloc Quebecois: 14 (unchanged)

    * Greens: 6 (unchanged)

"The support for the Conservatives is up significantly," Woolstencroft said, although he couldn't say what impact that will have in some of the narrowly-held Liberal ridings.

While the Bloc is overwhelmingly dominant in Quebec, the Conservatives climb into double digits in this poll for the first time in the campaign.

Here are the numbers (the change from the Nov. 24-27 pre-election poll is in brackets):

    * Bloc Quebecois: 55 per cent (+1)

    * Liberals: 26 (-4)

    * Conservatives: 10 (+2)

    * NDP: 6 (-1)

    * Greens: 3 (+1)

BC:

Here are the numbers (the change from the Nov. 24-27 pre-election poll is in brackets):

    * Conservatives: 32 (+2)

    * Liberals: 30 (-5)

    * NDP: 30 (+1)

    * Greens: 8 (+2)

and the Prairies:

Here are the numbers (the change from Dec. 6-8 poll is in brackets):

    * Conservatives: 60 (+8)

    * Liberals: 18 (-9)

    * NDP: 14 (-1)

    * Greens: 8 (+2)

The Strategic Counsel conducted the poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period. Interviews were conducted on December 8, 10 and 11.

This poll also had a lot of #'s to do with the "Gun Ban". Didn't think they needed posting on this page.

Being from the Prairies, I wonder how the polling numbers can be so different from recent SES polls, atleast,  here in the prairies. This poll seems to reflect what people, here are saying. The last SES poll with regional reports had the Liberals way up in the Prairies but I can't find it, so I won't post the numbers.

hope I linked everything right and followed the rules, still new at this....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[normanchateau]

More good news for the Liberals. Yesterday's CTV poll asked people whether they approved of Martin's handgun ban:

In Quebec, 70% approved.

In Ontario, 56% approved.

The national approval rating was 54%.

[shoop]

Where is the *other* good news, if the hangun thing represents *more* good news?

More good news for the Liberals.  Yesterday's CTV poll asked people whether they approved of Martin's handgun ban:

In Quebec, 70% approved.

In Ontario, 56% approved.

The national approval rating was 54%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[kimmy]

More good news for the Liberals.  Yesterday's CTV poll asked people whether they approved of Martin's handgun ban:

In Quebec, 70% approved.

In Ontario, 56% approved.

The national approval rating was 54%.

Good, good. This is a fair indication that gullibility isn't dead after all! Step aside, suckers! I've got herbal remedies and weight-loss products to sell!

-kimmy

{heading for Quebec first.}

[normanchateau]

Personally I don't favour criminalization of handguns (beyond the restrictions already in place) any more than I favour criminalization of marijuana. Gullibility is not exclusive to the supporters of any one political party.

[Biblio Bibuli]

"One sword keeps another in the sheath." - George Herbert (not Bush)

[Kiraly]

Personally I don't favour criminalization of handguns (beyond the restrictions already in place) any more than I favour criminalization of marijuana.  Gullibility is not exclusive to the supporters of any one political party.

Oddly enough, I'm a conservative who has no issue with decriminalizing marijuana laws.

My girlfriend, who I would describe as a socialist, is very anti-marijuana decriminalization. If it were up to her, the laws involving marijuana would be toughened.

[Canuck E Stan]

Tories tilt numbers at expense of NDP

“Polling Saturday evening indicates that for the second night in succession the Tories have positively tilted their numbers at the expense of the New Democrats.

Looks like the Dippers are on their way to being a non-party in Parliament.

[shoop]

Today's Globe and Mail CTV Poll Globe poll, December 14, 2005

National

Liberals - 33%

CPC - 31%

ND - 17%

Quebec

BQ - 54%

Liberals - 24%

Ontario

Liberals - 44%

CPC - 32%

All three national parties are "hovering around 30% in BC". The CPC is at 59% in the Prairies.

These results would give the CPC a slim minority government. Now if only Ontario would turn...

[normanchateau]

The UBC Canadian Federal Election Stock Market is now open for trading. Those of you who feel certain of a party winning a certain percentage of the popular vote or a certain percentage of the seats can put your money where your mouth is. The minimum investment per trader is $25 and the maximum is $1000. There is no commission. If there were, I wouldn't be posting this message.

So far there's been little volatility and the trades largely reflect polling numbers. However, this could change dramatically after this week's debates...a good reason to get in pre-debate if you're confident as to who will perform better in the debates. Those of you who feel confident about a CPC minority (or majority) would be wise to get in now before the polling numbers actually have CPC ahead.

Here's the link:

http://esm.ubc.ca/