Its a race

[Slavik44]

Poll

Looks like the polls are starting to show more and more that this will not be an easy election, with both the Liberals and CPC tied at 31%. Another bright note for the CPC is that they clock in only 2% below the Liberals in Ontario (37% to 35%). But the real question is wether or not the Conservatives can keep this success going, as they tend to have a problem of sliding down in the polls after they match the liberals.

[scribblet]

Poll

Looks like the polls are starting to show more and more that this will not be an easy election, with both the Liberals and CPC tied at 31%. Another bright note for the CPC is that they clock in only 2% below the Liberals in Ontario (37% to 35%). But the real question is wether or not the Conservatives can keep this success going, as they tend to have a problem of sliding down in the polls after they match the liberals.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its going to be a long campaign, I'm guessing the liberals have something up their sleeve for the latter part of it.

[Slavik44]

=

Its going to be a long campaign, I'm guessing the liberals have something up their sleeve for the latter part of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am sure they will, but seeing as how we already have posts claiming the CPC has lost the race, I felt it would be fair to indicate that the race has just started and its a draw, certainly not over for anyone yet.

[shoop]

Touché, but I think your example of the Conservatives "sliding down the polls" is a little suspect. One example does not a trend prove. The timing for this one is good as well. People will see Harper as a potential Prime Minister and evaluate the party on it's policies. Far too early in the game for the Liberals to define him.

I am sure they will, but seeing as how we already have posts claiming the CPC has lost the race, I felt it would be fair to indicate that the race has just started and its a draw, certainly not over for anyone yet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Slavik44]

Touché, but I think your example of the Conservatives "sliding down the polls" is a little suspect. One example does not a trend prove.

No one example does not proove the trend but I belive there are a couple examples from recent memory.

Strategic

03/11/2005

Libs: 28

Cons: 31

3 days later

Strategic

06/11/2005

Libs: 35

Cons: 28

-----------------------

Ipsos-Reid

12/05/2005

Libs: 27

Cons: 31

6 days later

Ipsos-Reid

18/05/2005

Libs: 34

Cons: 28

------------------------

Ipsos-Reid

30/04/2005

Libs: 30

Cons: 33

Ipsos-Reid

07/05/2005

Libs: 32

Cons: 31

-------------------------

Pollara

05/05/2005

Libs: 31

Cons: 36

(next pollara is two months later, but the next two polls following the release of this poll showed the CPC lower than the liberals)

I am not trying to say this happens in every case a poll is released, but that it seems to be a trend that the conservatives have trouble hanging on to a lead for more than a few polls, I find only one case where polls continuously have put the CPC in the lead for 10 days in the past 2 years. So my big question is wether or not we will see some steadying out of the polls or will they bounce around?

[shoop]

All of your 'examples' are within the stand +/- 2.5 point standard deviation. Hardly a 'slide' down the polls.

The early phase of this election, i.e. before Xmas, will set the stage for the real fireworks come the new year. Of course we are going to see things bouncing around, but Chrétien's lawsuit being filed today should help sustain the Conservatives into the next poll.

I am not trying to say this happens in every case a poll is released, but that it seems to be a trend that the conservatives have trouble hanging on to a lead for more than a few polls, I find only one case where polls continuously have put the CPC in the lead for 10 days in the past 2 years. So my big question is wether or not we will see some steadying out of the polls or will they bounce around?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Biblio Bibuli]

I'm guessing the liberals have something up their sleeve for the latter part of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's exactly what I'm guessing except that I think it's the CPCers that have something up their sleeve. Like the business community. Or GWB. Who knows?

[shoop]

I don't know if I have faith in the Liberals to pull the same magic this time around. What haven't they used already? The Conservatives have stayed on message and appear to have the media onside, for the most part, all good signs at this point.

If things get much worse for the Liberals look for them to start pulling out all the stops next week or the week after.

That's exactly what I'm guessing except that I think it's the CPCers that have something up their sleeve. Like the business community. Or GWB. Who knows?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Biblio Bibuli]

If things get much worse for the Liberals look for them to start pulling out all the stops next week or the week after.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nah. The fireworks won't start until after New Year's Eve.

I can't wait!

[southerncomfort]

I don't know if I have faith in the Liberals to pull the same magic this time around. What haven't they used already? The Conservatives have stayed on message and appear to have the media onside, for the most part, all good signs at this point.

If things get much worse for the Liberals look for them to start pulling out all the stops next week or the week after.

That's exactly what I'm guessing except that I think it's the CPCers that have something up their sleeve. Like the business community. Or GWB. Who knows?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why would the CPC use GWB ? If anything its the liberals who will come out attacking and using the scary anti-Americanism card. Ya know, that little streak of intolerance Canucks aren't supposed to have.

[shoop]

Probly, but it will be interesting to see how nervous Martin and his cronies get.

Nah. The fireworks won't start until after New Year's Eve.

I can't wait!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[CamTheCat]

Voting just to keep the party one doesn't want to win from winning, even if it means voting for a second choice, is not giving us what we want or need. There's nothing strategic in a head to head race for votes.

The FPTP voting system has ruined our faith in politics, and even if proportional representation isn't perfect, we'd see a lot more voters turning out.

The real race is with the Green Party. This little party is growing rapidly, and voting for them is real strategic voting. 600,000 voters agreed last election, (4.3% of the vote), and I expect to see many people supporting the GPC this election. If you take a look at their platform and policies, you'll see a well thought out strategy for a healthy successfull Canada.

Cameron

[Slavik44]

Voting just to keep the party one doesn't want to win from winning, even if it means voting for a second choice, is not giving us what we want or need. There's nothing strategic in a head to head race for votes.

The FPTP voting system has ruined our faith in politics, and even if proportional representation isn't perfect, we'd see a lot more voters turning out.

The real race is with the Green Party. This little party is growing rapidly, and voting for them is real strategic voting. 600,000 voters agreed last election, (4.3% of the vote), and I expect to see many people supporting the GPC this election. If you take a look at their platform and policies, you'll see a well thought out strategy for a healthy successfull Canada.

Cameron

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Honestly before the greens will ever grow rapidly, as you put it, I thinky they must first let people know that a vote for them is more than just a vote for the environment. although the greens are not a one issue party to many people see them as a one issue party for them to grow rapidly. When anyone says the green party the first thing that comes to mind is the environment, beyond that very little does come to mind, where as the CPC, NDP, or liberals all bring a number of different things to mind about their policies so IMHO the greens have alot of work ahead of them.

[sharkman]

I'm afraid the Green party will only serve to draw votes away from the NDP and maybe a few from the Liberals(I hope). Their policies are too "green" for most people.