seat-by-seat election projections

[normanchateau]

Democratic space does a regular projection of predicted seats based on party preferences of the previous week and an analysis of how these numbers translate into individual seats in each party. The web address is:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada/2005.../national.shtml

You will need to change the three dots in the URL above with the word election.

Here are their seat projections as of November 27, 2005:

Liberal 120

CPC 91

NDP 35

BQ 62

The web site also gives the numbers for each province as well as makes predictions for each riding along with projected margins of victory. The Quebec numbers, BQ 62, Liberals 13, seem reasonable since there are 13 ridings in Quebec which are largely anglophone or allophone rather than francophone. Still, this is a coup for the BQ since they're projected to win 20% of all the seats in Ottawa with a mere 13% of the vote.

The NDP is also a winner in these projections since they currently have less than 20 seats. Nonetheless, even 35 seats is still only 11% of the seats in the House of Commons, far less than their percentage of the popular vote which is now near 19% in the polls.

It's not surprising that the NDP and BQ want an election now since they're both projected to gain seats. By contrast, all seat projection websites, e.g. jord.ca, democratic space, UBC-ESM Election Forecaster, etc., predict a loss of CPC seats nationally. Odd that Harper got tricked into an election now by the NDP and BQ

but perhaps he's praying for a miracle to drop from the sky between now and January 23rd.

The biggest changes are projected in BC where the Liberals are projected to win 14 seats, the NDP 11 seats and the CPC 11 seats. This means that 50% of the BC seats currently held by CPC will be wiped out. That would leave only Ontario and Alberta as the only provinces with a significant amount of CPC seats, i.e., 29 and 27, respectively. Without the CPC seats in Ontario, CPC would have no more seats than the BQ.

The Greens are at 5% nationwide but that does not result in them getting seats. Nonetheless, they will be a spoiler in the many ridings where the margin of victory will be less than 5%.

[politika]

Democratic space does a regular projection of predicted seats based on party preferences of the previous week and an analysis of how these numbers translate into individual seats in each party.  The web address is:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada/2005.../national.shtml

You will need to change the three dots in the URL above with the word election.

Here are their seat projections as of November 27, 2005:

Liberal 120

CPC      91

NDP      35

BQ        62

The web site also gives the numbers for each province as well as makes predictions for each riding along with projected margins of victory. The Quebec numbers, BQ 62, Liberals 13, seem reasonable since there are 13 ridings in Quebec which are largely anglophone or allophone rather than francophone.  Still, this is a coup for the BQ since they're projected to win 20% of all the seats in Ottawa with a mere 13% of the vote.

The NDP is also a winner in these projections since they currently have less than 20 seats.  Nonetheless, even 35 seats is still only 11% of the seats in the House of Commons, far less than their percentage of the popular vote which is now near 19% in the polls.

It's not surprising that the NDP and BQ want an election now since they're both projected to gain seats.  By contrast, all seat projection websites, e.g. jord.ca, democratic space, UBC-ESM Election Forecaster, etc., predict a loss of CPC seats nationally.  Odd that Harper got tricked into an election now by the NDP and BQ

but perhaps he's praying for a miracle to drop from the sky between now and January 23rd.

The biggest changes are projected in BC where the Liberals are projected to win 14 seats, the NDP 11 seats and the CPC 11 seats.  This means that 50% of the BC seats currently held by CPC will be wiped out. That would leave only Ontario and Alberta as the only provinces with a significant amount of CPC seats, i.e., 29 and 27, respectively. Without the CPC seats in Ontario, CPC would have no more seats than the BQ.

The Greens are at 5% nationwide but that does not result in them getting seats.  Nonetheless, they will be a spoiler in the many ridings where the margin of victory will be less than 5%.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Their are many sites like this, they also predict the same thing here, I just wish people would think the Conservatives are more poular now in dat because of everything that has happaned. I guess Harper did bring it on himself by calling an election now.

[shoop]

Your attacks on the Conservatives are ignorant and childish. Hmmm, one prediction Web site has the Conservatives and Liberals losing seats. This gives you support for attacking the CPC while saying nothing against the Liberals? What an odd sense of fairness you have.

Here is a poll that calls 16 seats in BC for the Conservatives with another 17 too close to call.

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_210.html

Which is right? Who knows, but please tone down the attacks and rhetoric.

Odd that Harper got tricked into an election now by the NDP and BQ

but perhaps he's praying for a miracle to drop from the sky between now and January 23rd.

The biggest changes are projected in BC where the Liberals are projected to win 14 seats, the NDP 11 seats and the CPC 11 seats.  This means that 50% of the BC seats currently held by CPC will be wiped out. That would leave only Ontario and Alberta as the only provinces with a significant amount of CPC seats, i.e., 29 and 27, respectively. Without the CPC seats in Ontario, CPC would have no more seats than the BQ.

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[Toro]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the BC numbers. The last few elections, the Liberals have been strong in the polls only to see their stength evaporate at the end on election day.

[shoop]

No doubt. OP said the Liberals are going to win 14 seats in BC?!

Hmm last time they won that many, or even close, was 1968. I don't see anything to support this assertion or to refute the poll I posted.

Nice try though. Boy things are looking bad for PM if that is the best he can hope for - an historic breakthrough in BC to just barely hold on to a minority.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the BC numbers.  The last few elections, the Liberals have been strong in the polls only to see their stength evaporate at the end on election day.

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[tml12]

No doubt. OP said the Liberals are going to win 14 seats in BC?!

Hmm last time they won that many, or even close, was 1968. I don't see anything to support this assertion or to refute the poll I posted.

Nice try though. Boy things are looking bad for PM if that is the best he can hope for - an historic breakthrough in BC to just barely hold on to a minority.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the BC numbers.  The last few elections, the Liberals have been strong in the polls only to see their stength evaporate at the end on election day.

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<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the election will produce gains for the Liberals in BC, losses for the Liberals in Ontario and a maintaining of Conservative fortunes in Alberta and Liberal fortunes in the Maritimes. The Bloc will take around 55-60 seats in Quebec and the NDP may pick up a few in BC and the Prairies.

Barring a major shift in public opinion (as I said before, this is Harper's election to win), we will see:

Liberal Party 127 seats

Conservative Party 103 seats

Bloc Quebecois 58 seats

New Democratic Party 20 seats

Unfortunately for Martin (whom I really don't dislike...I am actually starting to dislike Chretien even more because I think he screwed Martin) no one wants to give the Liberals a majority government.

[shoop]

All partisanship aside, I think those numbers are slightly off at this point.

With the vibe I am getting here in Québec I would boost the Bloc numbers to the 65 seats. I don't think the Liberals support will last in BC. I cannot see the Bloc getting any less than 60 under any circumstances.

How do these numbers look:

Liberals: 100 Seats

Conservatives: 105 Seats

Bloc: 65 Seats

NDs:25 Seats

8 critical too close to call ridings:

North Vancouver Liberal or CPC

Toronto (Trinity-Spadina) ND or Liberal

Edmonton Centre Liberal or CPC

Chatham Kent Essex CPC or Liberal

Newmarket-Aurora CPC or Liberal

Ottawa-Orléans Liberal or Conservative

Hamilton Mountain Liberal or ND

Victoria Liberal or ND

I think the election will produce gains for the Liberals in BC, losses for the Liberals in Ontario and a maintaining of Conservative fortunes in Alberta and Liberal fortunes in the Maritimes.  The Bloc will take around 55-60 seats in Quebec and the NDP may pick up a few in BC and the Prairies.

Barring a major shift in public opinion (as I said before, this is Harper's election to win), we will see:

Liberal Party                                    127 seats

Conservative Party                            103 seats

Bloc Quebecois                                  58 seats

New Democratic Party                        20 seats

Unfortunately for Martin (whom I really don't dislike...I am actually starting to dislike Chretien even more because I think he screwed Martin) no one wants to give the Liberals a majority government.

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[tml12]

All partisanship aside, I think those numbers are slightly off at this point.

With the vibe I am getting here in Québec I would boost the Bloc numbers to the 65 seats. I don't think the Liberals support will last in BC. I cannot see the Bloc getting any less than 60 under any circumstances. 

How do these numbers look:

Liberals: 100 Seats

Conservatives: 105 Seats

Bloc: 65 Seats

NDs:25 Seats

8 critical too close to call ridings:

North Vancouver Liberal or CPC

Toronto (Trinity-Spadina) ND or Liberal

Edmonton Centre Liberal or CPC

Chatham Kent Essex CPC or Liberal

Newmarket-Aurora CPC or Liberal

Ottawa-Orléans Liberal or Conservative

Hamilton Mountain Liberal or ND

Victoria Liberal or ND

I think the election will produce gains for the Liberals in BC, losses for the Liberals in Ontario and a maintaining of Conservative fortunes in Alberta and Liberal fortunes in the Maritimes.  The Bloc will take around 55-60 seats in Quebec and the NDP may pick up a few in BC and the Prairies.

Barring a major shift in public opinion (as I said before, this is Harper's election to win), we will see:

Liberal Party                                     127 seats

Conservative Party                            103 seats

Bloc Quebecois                                  58 seats

New Democratic Party                        20 seats

Unfortunately for Martin (whom I really don't dislike...I am actually starting to dislike Chretien even more because I think he screwed Martin) no one wants to give the Liberals a majority government.

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<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You know I am with you Shoop but if an election were held today I just don't see Harper forming a government...certainly I see the Liberals losing some and the Conservatives gaining some but voters will not give Harper any kind of government just because the current government is uninspiring or the scandal. Canadians want to see where Harper would take this country.

[shoop]

They are going to release a platform, probly in the next week or so. It will have a lot of thought put into it, like the Red Book in 1993. Give them time to release it...

You know I am with you Shoop but if an election were held today I just don't see Harper forming a government...certainly I see the Liberals losing some and the Conservatives gaining some but voters will not give Harper any kind of government just because the current government is uninspiring or the scandal.  Canadians want to see where Harper would take this country.

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[tml12]

They are going to release a platform, probly in the next week or so. It will have a lot of thought put into it, like the Red Book in 1993. Give them time to release it...

You know I am with you Shoop but if an election were held today I just don't see Harper forming a government...certainly I see the Liberals losing some and the Conservatives gaining some but voters will not give Harper any kind of government just because the current government is uninspiring or the scandal.  Canadians want to see where Harper would take this country.

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For sure, I am not faulting Harper here I am only saying that he needs to talk to us.

[normanchateau]

Strategic Counsel today, 11/29/2005, just published some new national percentages for party preference:

Liberals 35

CPC 29

NDP 17

BQ 14

Green 5

Here are the Strategic Counsel numbers for British Columbia, 11/29/2005:

Liberals 35

CPC 30

NDP 29

And here are the seat projections from JORD.CA:

Liberals 135

CPC 89

NDP 25

BQ 59

Neither the Liberals or CPC are headed for a majority but so far it looks like Harper is more likely to be dumped by his party. Who knows, if CPC actually picks a leader who is not a social conservative, CPC might stand a chance of defeating the Liberals next time. No matter how one analyzes the current statistics, approximately 70% of Canadians support parties to the left of Harper's. I don't see that changing until CPC picks a more socially middle-of-the-road leader.

[tml12]

Strategic Counsel today, 11/29/2005, just published some new national percentages for party preference:

Liberals 35

CPC      29

NDP      17

BQ        14

Green    5

Here are the Strategic Counsel numbers for British Columbia, 11/29/2005:

Liberals 35

CPC      30

NDP      29

And here are the seat projections from JORD.CA:

Liberals 135

CPC      89

NDP      25

BQ        59

Neither the Liberals or CPC are headed for a majority but so far it looks like Harper is more likely to be dumped by his party.  Who knows, if CPC actually picks a leader who is not a social conservative, CPC might stand a chance of defeating the Liberals next time. No matter how one analyzes the current statistics, approximately 70% of Canadians support parties to the left of Harper's. I don't see that changing until CPC picks a more socially middle-of-the-road leader.

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You didn't factor the undecided number in there but generally you are not incorrect.

[Toro]

I think the election will produce gains for the Liberals in BC, losses for the Liberals in Ontario and a maintaining of Conservative fortunes in Alberta and Liberal fortunes in the Maritimes.  The Bloc will take around 55-60 seats in Quebec and the NDP may pick up a few in BC and the Prairies.

Barring a major shift in public opinion (as I said before, this is Harper's election to win), we will see:

Liberal Party                                    127 seats

Conservative Party                            103 seats

Bloc Quebecois                                  58 seats

New Democratic Party                        20 seats

Unfortunately for Martin (whom I really don't dislike...I am actually starting to dislike Chretien even more because I think he screwed Martin) no one wants to give the Liberals a majority government.

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If I were a betting man, this is about where I'd be.

[August1991]

Here are my projections:

Total 306

BQ 61

CPC 113

Lib 102

NDP 32

====

BC 36

CPC 24

Lib 3

NDP 9

Alta 28

CPC 28

Sask 14

CPC 11

Lib 1

NDP 2

Man 14

CPC 7

Lib 3

NDP 4

------

Ontario 106

CPC 32

Lib 62

NDP 12

of which:

Tor 22

Lib 19

NDP 3

905 32

CPC 7

Lib 23

NDP 2

Ont North 10

CPC 1

Lib 5

NDP 4

Ont East 17

CPC 11

Lib 6

Ont SW 22

CPC 10

Lib 9

NDP 3

Simcoe 3

CPC 3

-----

Quebec 75

BQ 61

Lib 14

NB 10

CPC 6

Lib 3

NDP 1

NS 11

CPC 3

NDP 3

Lib 5

PEI 4

Lib 4

Nfld 7

CPC 2

Lib 5

Yk/NWT

Lib 2

NDP 1

-----

I strongly suggest the Election Prediction website for info. I have followed its Ontario regional breakdown method.

We ran a thread like this in the 2004 Election. (You can see it here.)

Incidentally, I looked at Quebec carefully and IMV, there are 9 absolutely safe Liberal seats and 54 very BQ safe seats. This leaves 12 seats up for grabs.

Lastly, this election is hard to call for what I call the seismic shift/meltdown factor. IOW, there is a (small) chance the Liberals or Tories will collapse, or see strong movement away.

[tml12]

Here are my projections:

Total 306

BQ 61

CPC 113

Lib 102

NDP 32

====

BC 36

CPC 24

Lib 3

NDP 9

Alta 28

CPC 28

Sask 14

CPC 11

Lib 1

NDP 2

Man 14

CPC 7

Lib 3

NDP 4

------

Ontario 106

CPC 32

Lib 62

NDP 12

of which:

Tor 22

Lib 19

NDP 3

905 32

CPC 7

Lib 23

NDP 2

Ont North 10

CPC 1

Lib 5

NDP 4

Ont East 17

CPC 11

Lib 6

Ont SW 22

CPC 10

Lib 9

NDP 3

Simcoe 3

CPC 3

-----

Quebec 75

BQ 61

Lib 14

NB 10

CPC 6

Lib 3

NDP 1

NS 11

CPC 3

NDP 3

Lib 5

PEI 4

Lib 4

Nfld 7

CPC 2

Lib 5

Yk/NWT

Lib 2

NDP 1

-----

I strongly suggest the Election Prediction website for info.  I have followed its Ontario regional breakdown method.

We ran a thread like this in the 2004 Election.  (You can see it here.)

Incidentally, I looked at Quebec carefully and IMV, there are 9 absolutely safe Liberal seats and 54 very BQ safe seats. This leaves 12 seats up for grabs.

Lastly, this election is hard to call for what I call the seismic shift/meltdown factor.  IOW, there is a (small) chance the Liberals or Tories will collapse, or see strong movement away.

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Overall pretty good but I think your BC numbers are off.

[shoop]

Enough of your partisan crap. The bar is much higher for Martin than Harper. Harper stays if he wins a minority, Martin gets dumped if he only wins a minority. Do you honestly believe Martin is more likely to win a majority than Harper is to win a minority?

Let's have a debate. Instead of attack - attack - attack.

Neither the Liberals or CPC are headed for a majority but so far it looks like Harper is more likely to be dumped by his party.  Who knows, if CPC actually picks a leader who is not a social conservative, CPC might stand a chance of defeating the Liberals next time.

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[Guest eureka]

There are a numbr of factors that are not being taken into account on the guessing games. I tink your prediction site, August, is right about the 86 that are too close to call but there are reasons for that other than history.

One riding in Ontario that the Conservatives will, I think, lose is the one I am in. It will go NDP.

A large factor that seems to be gathering no attention is that nearly half the Quebec voters, by the worst count, are federalist. Probably more than that when the chips are down as I think they will be in this election. I would be very surprised if Quebec does not bring a few surprises itself and elect far more Liberals than are now expected: expected by those who are simply looking at current polls.

My own view of polls at this stage is that they are worthless. There are issues that will trump any feelings of the moment.

A substantial Liberal minority is my thinking at this time.

[August1991]

A large factor that seems to be gathering no attention is that nearly half the Quebec voters, by the worst count, are federalist. Probably more than that when the chips are down as I think they will be in this election. I would be very surprised if Quebec does not bring a few surprises itself and elect far more Liberals than are now expected: expected by those who are simply looking at current polls.

eureka, I already heard Duceppe today on radio saying that it's not a referendum - it's a federal election.

Martin/Lapierre prefer to present the election as a federalist/separatist face-off so that they don't bleed Liberal votes to the NDP or Tories or none-of-the-above in certain Montreal ridings. Coderre, Pettigrew, Frulla (for example) risk losing because the federalist vote will split. (I think the NDP will do well among some Montreal federalists.)

The Martin/Lapierre approach also plays well to some Ontario voters - the Liberals stand for National Unity. Frankly though, I think that idea worked with Trudeau but is pathetic now, with Lapierre.

I think the BQ will get around 55% of the popular vote in Quebec. We can discuss later whether those BQ votes represent Yes votes in a referendum.

[Bakunin]

Ok, here are my prediction:

Total 306

BQ:57

They will win the Pierre pettigrew, Liza frulla & Denis paradis county wich will pratically mean the death of the remaining Liberal quebec wing.

This mean more than 50% of the vote and a boost to the sovreignist movement.

CPC: 102

Lib: 118

NDP: 29

I won't say county by provinces because out of quebec, i have absolutly no idea of how things are percieved. The only thing i feel is that Harper won't do miracle. At best he could override the liberal and form a government with the help of the bloc.

The election will however change many things, first, it could mean harper or paul martin retirement. It could lead to a national crisis if its a liberal minority again. It could mean some kind of putch if paul martin doesn't perform and bring a majority government. It could be a liberal minority government but at the will of the conservative & bloc wich would hold the power. it could even mean a liberal majority government but thats quite unlikly because of the bloc.

[normanchateau]

Enough of your partisan crap. The bar is much higher for Martin than Harper. Harper stays if he wins a minority, Martin gets dumped if he only wins a minority. Do you honestly believe Martin is more likely to win a majority than Harper is to win a minority?

Let's have a debate. Instead of attack - attack - attack.

Fair question. While I think it highly unlikely that Harper will win even a minority, it is even less likely that Martin will win a majority. In my opinion, Harper will disappear rather quickly after the next election. Following the 2004 election, he disappeared for months, apparently brooding and trying to decide whether he should stay on. Whether he quits or is dumped, I believe he'll disappear fairly soon. I'm not quite so sure about Martin. Certainly the Liberal knives will be out to get him but whether he'll go quietly or go at all is hard to say. I think he's stronger than most people realize. He has the dubious distinction of taking down a sitting Prime Minister of his own party. By contrast,

Harper's attempts to deal with Manning were relatively unsuccessful so he quit Reform, joined NCC, until that party, recrystallized as Alliance, dumped Manning.

I see Harper as a very weak leader compared to the other three. He wasn't able to get rid of Grewal until Grewal resigned. He wasn't able to keep the religious zealots out...people like Darrel Reid, former President of Focus on the Family, the Richmond, British Columbia CPC candidate who is not only anti-abortion but also anti stem cell research. Even many US Republicans favour stem cell research given it's potential to treat Alzheimer's and many other debilitating illnesses. I suspect it is people like Reid who are responsible for Harper's statement yesterday that he'll revisit C-38. To be fair to Harper, I don't think he cares a damn about SSM one way or the other. But the religious zealots in his party do and he seems unable to control them in my opinion. The former PCs kept the religious zealots away which is perhaps one reason why they were viewed as a credible alternative to the Liberals.

[normanchateau]

Your attacks on the Conservatives are ignorant and childish.

I can understand your frustration in supporting a candidate with such weak prospects for remaining leader after January, let alone ever becoming Prime Minister. But in future I will not respond to personal attacks, however inappropriate they might be. :angry:

[normanchateau]

Here are my projections:

Total 306

BQ 61

CPC 113

Lib 102

NDP 32

====

BC 36

CPC 24

Lib 3

NDP 9

CPC currently holds 22 seats. Most projections have them losing half of them based on the fact that they're now polling 30% or lower. Your projections must be based on something other than polling data. Could it beishful thinking?

[southerncomfort]

That's Normies style, continually attacking the CPC and Harper, he's from 50plus which just closed down cos of this type of attacking. These forums look to be better moderated.

Anyhoo, I'm helping on the election no time for reading unsubstantiated nonsense.

I'm not a betting gal, but I'm guessing it will be a liberal minority again thanks to Ontario.

Enough of your partisan crap. The bar is much higher for Martin than Harper. Harper stays if he wins a minority, Martin gets dumped if he only wins a minority. Do you honestly believe Martin is more likely to win a majority than Harper is to win a minority?

Let's have a debate. Instead of attack - attack - attack.

Neither the Liberals or CPC are headed for a majority but so far it looks like Harper is more likely to be dumped by his party.  Who knows, if CPC actually picks a leader who is not a social conservative, CPC might stand a chance of defeating the Liberals next time.

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[shoop]

Show others the same respect you ask for yourself. Don't make personal attacks and they won't come your way.

I guess given your earlier statements you are more frustrated than I am given that you said Paul Martin is less likely to earn a majority than Harper a minority you are more frustrated than I.

I can understand your frustration in supporting a candidate with such weak prospects for remaining leader after January, let alone ever becoming Prime Minister. But in future I will not respond to personal attacks, however inappropriate they might be. :angry:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As for the BC results. I point to the poll I posted that you ignored, the history of the Liberals losing support in BC over elections and the fact that they have never done as well as you are hoping they will in BC. Alas, Norman will cross a line soon enough...

CPC currently holds 22 seats. Most projections have them losing half of them based on the fact that they're now polling 30% or lower. Your projections must be based on something other than polling data. Could it beishful thinking?

[Toro]

Here's my projection.

Tories 306.

Liberals 0.

Thank you, and good night.