Election Poll

[shoop]

I think I might have found the poll your local paper is referring to.

Decima released a poll last Tuesday, with some strange results.

They asked two questons. Intentions to vote today vs. intentions to vote in Jan/Feb.

The national numbers were the same. Yet for some reason the Liberals lose four points with the second question in Québéc and gain *eight* in BC.

All very odd, but your local paper could be referring to the 42% number released for BC in this second question...

Paper copy of my local paper says Liberals have 44% of the decided vote in BC (no online link). If you take into account the interior and the north is pretty solid conservative territory you will realize that the Libreal vote in the lower mainland would have to be above 45% to give 44% for the entire province. Poll could be pre-gomery though - it does say when the survey was taken.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[CoachCartman]

What planet are you on?

I think the same one your on but obviously a different spot

The only possible explaination for a sudden and unexpected number of a bankruptcies will be high heating costs and high interest rates:

Yes, high heating costs suck, but causing bankruptcies....not very many. High interest rates? Maybe if you buy everything on your credit card and don't pay it off. When they hit 15% we have problems....

both of which have little to do with the party in power.

agree

There may be a different situation in rural Canada in some parts of the prairies

You think????Record high input costs and record low prices for grain can, and are, blamed on this liberal government. Crap quality grain can not be blamed on the government....too bad

There may be a different situation in rural Canada in some parts of the prairies, however, that is not where the votes are.

yip, hear that again and again. It makes me sick. A democratic country and our votes don't matter. Time to change something, we are sick of being ignored.

In the cities like Vancouver, the polls suggest the Liberals could pull 40-50% of the popular vote.

I haven't seen any polls like that one but could be. It would be nice if the pollsters would ask questions that were not loaded one way or another.

ps, hope this post looks have decent. I'm new here and still trying to learn the ropes

[Neal.F.]

seems this is getting off topic... as far as who will win and why, I offer this.

It will either be a Conservative minority, if the Tories can stay on message or a Liberal majority ifthey can take harper off message.

I think the Libs are going to run two campaigns. One in Quebec, Where the Tories are not a factor, and one oin the ROC, where they will try the same tactics that have worked before.

In Quebec, the Liberals will attack ferociously with a message that the Bloc is treating this as a dry run for the provincial election and that anyone considering casting a protest vote with the Bloc should seriously reconsider.

The Liberals are actually right in this case:

1)if the Bloc holds what hey have, or worse, makes gain, they will spin it as support for separation. They will have the Big Mo' in heir favour as we apprach a provincial election.

2) Every seat the Bloc has weakens us vis a vis the next election, and referendum, if there's to be one. The elected Bloquistes will use their influence, and riding offices to help Pequistes win in the next election. They will use YOUR tax dollars to do it.

3) There will be too few federal representatives on teh ground to add legitimacy to the Federalist cause.

4)The Bloc is a separatist party. They are not altruistically looking out for the interests of all Quebecers, they are seeking to weaken and deligitimize tehe federal system any way they can. They exist solely for the purpose of preparing the way for the PQ to destroy the country.

5) Taking the Bloc down to 35-40 seats will damage their prestige, and lead to their unravelling, and if they lose prestige, so does Boisclair and Co. , and perhaps a referendum can be avoided entirely.

6) Staying home on voting day is not an option. The Seps won't.

That will be the message, and if it works, we could see the Bloc go down to those levels. And if it results in a Liberal minority or even a majority, if the separatist movement hits the wall, it would be worth putting up with 2-4 more years of the Liberals.

Whatever the Tories do, they must NOT enter into coalition or any kind of deal with the separatists! If they do, they can kiss Ontario goodbye forever. The Bloc will just use them to advance their goal, which is separation, not a better deal with Canada.

In Quebec, as I;ve said I do hope the Liberals are able to get Federalists away from casting protest votes for the Bloc. These separatists need to be taken down and hard.

A Conservative minority, possible ONLY f they follow this blueprint could then enter into a grand coalition (such as is being currently tried in Germany, and was done here during the wars) with the Liberals so as to get the Quebec representation they need. However, they would need to distance themselves from the tainted ones, and instead put Stephane Dion in as Intergovernmental affairs minister, Marc Garneau as Sci. & Tech, Francis Scarpeleggia, Massimo Pacetti, Pablo Rodriguez, Eleni Bakopanos and others could be given something else. (leave Cotler, Robillard, Pettigrew, Frulla etc on the backbenches. Hopefully they'll take the hint and get out of the game.).

I am hoping that the NDP gets beaten up so badly that they lose official party status, so that Jack Layton and his marxist louts can never again hold the taxpayers hostage as they did for the past 8 months. I'd like to see them wiped out, but Bill Blaikie, Judy Wascilycia-Lys and pat Martin, and Libby Davies are safe.

And i want the Bloc gone. though the best we can hope for is to take them down to 35 seats at worst, this time. But it would be a major blow to their prestige, and they'd unravel rather quickly after that.

Here is, given a dose of reality and some wishful thinking, the ideal way it will finish up:

Con: 144 (that's as good as it gets:gains in On, BC and Atl)

Lib: 125 (Gains in QC offset losses elsewhere)

BQ:35 (Still to damned many, but Federalists wake up)

NDP: 4 (hopefully the end of the line)

[Black Dog]

I am hoping that the NDP gets beaten up so badly that they lose official party status, so that Jack Layton and his marxist louts can never again hold the taxpayers hostage as they did for the past 8 months. I'd like to see them wiped out, but Bill Blaikie, Judy Wascilycia-Lys and pat Martin, and Libby Davies are safe.

Wishful thinking indeed. The ND's are the only national party that has maintained a consistent level of support over the past year. Layton's safe, and I'll wager they are in a position to, at minimum, hold their gains of 2004.