Liberal Masterstroke?

[Chimera]

Looking at this Liberal mini-budget, what are some of the consequences that it could have on the upcoming election?

Here is my take on it.

1. The Liberals fought the last election on essentially two fronts - healthcare, and Harper is a scary, bad man. I don't think they can fight this election on Healthcare now. The system is still a shambles, and the mini-budget ignored it completely. $30B would have gone a long way to help the system, and without any added private sector resources, having the extra money in your pocket won't help you on the health front either. So now they will have to run a liberal campaign on conservative ideas (tax cuts). Oh yeah, and Harper is still a scary, bad, BAD man.

2. The deal they made with the NDP in the spring was undone in this budget. This seems to add to the party's dishonesty record. This will likely ensure the soft NDP voters do indeed vote NDP instead of Liberal. Of course, the reinstatement of these tax cuts has kinda been just glossed over, so it may have no actual impact.

3. The personal tax cuts are the real unknown here. The question is if it will anger voters into believing Liberals are trying to buy their votes. We all know hardcore cons will charge this, hardcore libs will deny it. These opinions don't really count as it is the soft and undecided votes that will determine the election outcome. Most people will not take notice that the middle income tax cuts do not take effect until 2010. Lot's of time to reneg on those later.

4. The Conservatives ran the last election on tax cuts. Do they have anything else? They will not win an election on Gomery alone. They need to ignore the attack strategy they tried last time and focus on policies. They can not get into a spin war with the libs, the libs will always win as they are the masters of this it seems.

Now of course comes the BIG question. Assuming the libs win the coming election, will they even actually follow through on this propsal, or will they find some way to wriggle out of it (GST anyone? NAFTA?).

Whatever your political leanings, you gotta give these guys credit. They're good. And just remember, they're not even "playing political games" yet.

[shoop]

Hmmm, quite the optimistic, and naive, analysis. The Conservatives ran on more than tax cuts last time.

They won't just run on Gomery but the history of Liberal corruption over the last decade. Shawingate, HRDC, Gomery, etc.....

The Conservatives will also present why they will be better at governing.

Don't really know why the mini-budget proves the Liberals are good. So much for "whatever your political leanings".

The Conservatives ran the last election on tax cuts.  Do they have anything else?  They will not win an election on Gomery alone.  They need to ignore the attack strategy they tried last time and focus on policies.  They can not get into a spin war with the libs, the libs will always win as they are the masters of this it seems.

Whatever your political leanings, you gotta give these guys credit.  They're good.  And just remember, they're not even "playing political games" yet.

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[apollo19]

I think this "budget" puts the Liberals in a position to get the young voters (like me), as they put quite a bit of money into things like loans and scholarships. Of particular interest is the money the put aside to "help Canadian students to study in a foreign country in order for a globalised workfore". I think that Martin's view of what he wants Canada to be like in the world is a free trader, a R&D center, and a place of generally high-educated people. The whole "globalised future workforce" clearly fits in with the FTAA idea. Overall, I think that if the Conservatives offer similar tax cuts, but fail to put the money into post-secondary education for students, they won't make gains among socially-liberal young people.

[shoop]

Touché. Would putting more money into p.s.e. be enough for the Conservatives to drown out the cries of 'scary, scary, scary' in the ears (minds?) of socially-liberal young people?

Overall, I think that if the Conservatives offer similar tax cuts, but fail to put the money into post-secondary education for students, they won't make gains among socially-liberal young people.

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[August1991]

I think this "budget" puts the Liberals in a position to get the young voters (like me), as they put quite a bit of money into things like loans and scholarships.

You'd have to be 19 to be naive enough to believe a Liberal promise at this point. Apollo19, do you really believe you're going to see any of this money the Liberals are promising?

This is budget-making by polls:

According to a survey by The Strategic Counsel, the room for Liberal Party electoral growth exists in this cluster of voters. Of those Canadians in households making less than $50,000 per year, 21 per cent in a recent poll said they were undecided about whom to vote for.

G & M

To be honest though, I don't know where the Liberals are going with this mini-budget. In the past, the Liberals have accused the Tories of being irresponsible for advocating tax cuts. Now, that is exactly what the Liberals are proposing. Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberals and the Alberta governments are proposing private health schemes but the federal Liberals are saying nothing.

The last polls showed the Liberals in the low 30s. I can only suspect that the Liberals want to move the debate from Gomery and scandal.

[shoop]

Of course they want to move the debate from Gomery and their other scandals.

I find it interesting how the Liberals are fighting with the CPC for those voters with household incomes under $50k. You would think that would be ND territory. Oh wait it was, until the socialists forgot their raison d'etre was to fight for the working man.

To be honest though, I don't know where the Liberals are going with this mini-budget.  In the past, the Liberals have accused the Tories of being irresponsible for advocating tax cuts.  Now, that is exactly what the Liberals are proposing.  Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberals and the Alberta governments are proposing private health schemes but the federal Liberals are saying nothing.

The last polls showed the Liberals in the low 30s.  I can only suspect that the Liberals want to move the debate from Gomery and scandal.

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[apollo19]

I think this "budget" puts the Liberals in a position to get the young voters (like me), as they put quite a bit of money into things like loans and scholarships.

You'd have to be 19 to be naive enough to believe a Liberal promise at this point. Apollo19, do you really believe you're going to see any of this money the Liberals are promising?

No, from what I know I wouldn't trust the promises made, but at this point I am looking mainly towards what each party envisions Canada being in the future. This platform lays out Martin's view: a globalised, technology-dependent, research country. It may not happen with the dithering and inaction, but it is a view of what Martin wants nonetheless. Since the CPC hasn't released their full platform yet, I can't make a decision yet, but I suspect it will go along the same lines as last election (which I do agree with) -- lower taxes, a stronger military, balanced budgets, a place for Canada in the international community "again", and keeping social laws the same (abortion, etc).

You point out a good problem for people my age about the Liberals: we don't KNOW a Canada that has been better; we have seen no higher points in our lives. We don't know how the country was under Mulroney, or before him. All we know of Canada is what we grew up with under Chretien, so that may be a problem in the future with young people not caring about politics because we don't know of anything else. Maybe thats why it's important to put a new party in power (CPC) so we end the One-Party state that we've known.

[err]

To be honest though, I don't know where the Liberals are going with this mini-budget.  In the past, the Liberals have accused the Tories of being irresponsible for advocating tax cuts.  Now, that is exactly what the Liberals are proposing.  Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberals and the Alberta governments are proposing private health schemes but the federal Liberals are saying nothing.

This is an excellent topic you bring up August. Health care and tax cuts. The reason that the NDP pulled its support for the Liberals was that the Liberals would not guarantee to support public health care. The NDP's main demand was that the Liberals guarantee that all new health-care spending was on public health care, as decreed in the Canada Health Act... not spending our money on privatized health care. The Liberals would give no such guarantee. It appears that our public health care system is not as important as giving contracts to Liberal-friendly health-care providers.... not just advertising firms...

And many of the problems we have with our health-care system is due to reductions in funding. Wrecklessly giving huge tax breaks, contrary to the deal that they made with the NDP this spring is irresponsible vote-buying. If they have the money to spend on tax breaks, they should be more responsible to their electorate and put some of that money back into health care, where they looted a lot of it from... in the first place....

[Canuck E Stan]

If they have the money to spend on tax breaks, they should be more responsible to their electorate and put some of that money back into health care, where they looted a lot of it from... in the first place....

Your right,the Liberals should have come clean with the taxpayers back in the spring and told the taxpayers how much $$ they have to work with.But remember these are Liberals,accountable to no one except Liberals.

Layton was very naive last spring,thinking he had an edge on the Martin by demanding a mere $4.5 billion for some petty stuff he wanted.

The Liberals back then made it appear that they were doing something extraordinary for poor Jack, all the while laughing at his stupidity in propping up them up for only $4.5 billion.

The Liberal stash of tax money is enormous but like true Liberals they kept it hidden and out of sight from anyone.after all it's their money,they collected it.

Look at the budget in the spring $80 billion,yesterday's mini budget $40 billion. Amazing all this cash suddenly appears , and I'm sure there's much more under the mattress.

Has Jack learned anything from all this? Maybe.

He's just pissed off now and will do anything to Martin for making him look stupid,so pissed he's ready to call Harper his new best friend.

[Guest eureka]

You could not have known a "better Canada," Apollo at your age. That is because it has been all downhill since the Conservative government of Clark, though he could not really be faulted to much for the lead up to a world wide recession. However, Mulroney can and Canada has suffered economically, socially, and politically since his election.

There is not a thing to be said in favour of a Conservative government at this time until the Conservatives relearn what it means to be conservative.

[Canuck E Stan]

Rip Van Eureka,

This is 2005.

Wake up and smell the LIberals.

[August1991]

You could not have known a "better Canada," Apollo at your age. That is because it has been all downhill since the Conservative government of Clark, though he could not really be faulted to much for the lead up to a world wide recession.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah, yes, the 1970s. Before computers, before DVDs, before cheap air travel, before AIDS, before Internet phone calls.

They were the good old days.

[kimmy]

You could not have known a "better Canada," Apollo at your age. That is because it has been all downhill since the Conservative government of Clark, though he could not really be faulted to much for the lead up to a world wide recession.

You can mark the moment of the fall of our great nation with such precision as to place it within a 9-month interruption in Pierre Trudeau's 16 years in office? Intriguing.

-k

{as an aside, I think the title of this threads needs more exclamation points. perhaps "MINI-BUDGET!!!!!" or even "MINI-BUDGET!!!!!!!"}

[Chimera]

{as an aside, I think the title of this threads needs more exclamation points. perhaps "MINI-BUDGET!!!!!" or even "MINI-BUDGET!!!!!!!"}

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah, you're probably right kimmy. I think also Greg needs to add a new font for sarcasm as some people seem to be completely impervious to this (as well as humour).

[Guest eureka]

Actually, August, it is more relevant to say it was before the decline in incomes and living standards: before Canadians lost the ability to pay for the toys that have been developed since.

It was when savings in Canada weer significant and led to productive investment.: before Canadians were forced to spend income they barely had to maintain their standards.

It was before poverty levels went to the heights of the developing world. It was before Canada went into that "gentle decline" that some economists have noted.

It was before conservatism morphed into popular Radicalism.

And yes, Kimmy, it can be traced to that interlude with Clark. That is when the seeds of the neo-Lib surge were planted in Canada: when the Americanization of Canadian Conservatism began. That is when the Mulroney phenomenon took root.

[shoop]

Ahhh, yes Eureka.

Blame the Conservatives. After 12+ years in power fall back on that old chestnut.

Say what you will, but on the fiscal front Paul Martin was a great conservative finance minister. However, the best way to increase productivity is to put more money back into the hands of business and let them figure out how to do it.

Actually, August, it is more relevant to say it was before the decline in incomes and living standards: before Canadians lost the ability to pay for the toys that have been developed since.

It was when savings in Canada weer significant and led to productive investment.: before Canadians were forced to spend income they barely had to maintain their standards.

It was before poverty levels went to the heights of the developing world. It was before Canada went into that "gentle decline" that some economists have noted.

It was before conservatism morphed into popular Radicalism.

And yes, Kimmy, it can be traced to that interlude with Clark. That is when the seeds of the neo-Lib surge were planted in Canada: when the Americanization of Canadian Conservatism began. That is when the Mulroney phenomenon took root.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Chimera]

So anyway....

How is the average voter going to see this. Is this going to be seen as Liberals trying to buy votes or as opposition parties impeding progress? For the many people that get their political info from 30 second sound bites on the six o'clock news, $30B in tax cuts is going to sound awfully good.

Hardcore cons are saying the libs are evil, hardcore libs are saying cons are evil. Predictable. Their opinions don't really count for much as far as elections go though, because it is the swing voters who will decide the outcome. So how will this mini-budget be viewed by these people?

[stubblejumper]

New SES poll has:

The federal Liberals have dropped six points in two weeks (40% to

34%), Tory support is unchanged (28%) while the NDP have picked up

five points in the same period (15% to 20%). Green Party support is

unchanged (4%). The BQ are up two points nationally (in Quebec BQ

54%, Lib 24%, CP 9%, NDP 8%, GP 4%).

Looks tight and it seems the public is happy with Layton's role so far.

[kimmy]

Yeah, you're probably right kimmy.  I think also Greg needs to add a new font for sarcasm as some people seem to be completely impervious to this (as well as humour).

I think it would be cool if Ralph Goodale and Paul Martin could arrange for strolling minstrels to follow them around to play a trumpet fanfare each time someone says "Mini-Budget."

-k