Election first week of February?

[shoop]

So Duceppe, Harper and Layton are meeting tomorrow to plan strategy.

Some Random Link

Mr. Harper, meanwhile, has suggested using a Conservative opposition day in the Commons expected Tuesday for one of two possible motions. One would call for the Commons to reconvene Jan. 4 for an opposition-controlled agenda — likely including a vote of non-confidence that would trigger an election. The second involves allowing the opposition to table motions in the Commons every seven days. The Liberals now control so-called opposition days.

Opposition efforts to declare non-confidence in the Liberals but delay their downfall until January are especially bizarre, some random political science professor said. And all for the sake of pushing the election timetable ahead by a couple of months. It might be funny if the stakes weren't so high — especially for Mr. Harper and Mr. Martin, Mr. Docherty said. “This will be a critical election because it may be their last.” Neither leader can afford a repeat of the minority Liberal result in 2004, Mr. Docherty said. Yet, successive public opinion polls suggest exactly that outcome.

A successful non-confidence vote on January 4th would make February 2nd - the day after Gomery's final report is due - the earliest possible date for Martin to call an election. He could delay a few more days than that, but that is about it.

Great stuff for all the opposition parties, having Gomery's final report come in during the election.

Very, very interesting stuff.

[August1991]

A successful non-confidence vote on January 4th would make February 2nd - the day after Gomery's final report is due - the earliest possible date for Martin to call an election. He could delay a few more days than that, but that is about it.

If the non-confidence motion were on 4 Jan, the election date would be 13 February. (It must be a minimum of 36 days.)

[Yodeler]

Very, very interesting stuff.

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Did you read your Andrew Coyne today?

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpos...68-a05406e0fd76

Very, very, VERY interesting stuff.

[err]

Here's a good explanation of the logic in Jack Layton's proposed motion:

To understand the brilliance of NDP leader Jack Layton’s proposed motion to require Paul Martin to call an election in January instead of next week, you have to understand the tennis match that had been going on between Prime Minister Martin and Opposition Leader Harper in the lead-up.

As the (minor) bombshell of the first Gomery report struck, the Conservatives had to consider whether to try and bring down the government now or wait until Martin’s promised election call in February. Thanks to more democratic trickery on the part of the Liberals, Opposition Days — days when the oppostiion could most easily introduce a motion of non-confidence — were pushed back to next week, meaning that forcing an election then meant taking people to the polls around Christmas. Nobody on the opposition side, it seems, wants to be seen as responsible for calling a Christmas election.

Already burned by the election dance he had last spring, Harper was reluctant to bring down the government in such a fashion. So he made an excuse: I won’t bring down the government unless I have Jack Layton’s support. Meaning: if things go wrong, it’s Jack Layton’s fault. Jack then milked his renewed prominence in parliament for a while longer, but then decided — as Warren Kinsella recommended — to get out of Martin’s “blast radius”. An election was coming in February at the latest, so now was the time to extricate himself from his lucrative deal with the Liberals. But he wisely decided against doing Harper’s dirtywork, remaining coy over whether he’d cooperate on a motion of non-confidence.

Harper pressed the matter, offering the NDP the Conservative’s first Opposition Day in parliament (November 15) to bring in their own motion of non-confidence (“I don’t want to force an election; you force an election!”), but Layton refused to play Harper’s patsy. But then Layton came back with the brilliant plan: introduce a non-binding motion during the NDP’s Opposition Day demanding that Paul Martin call an election during the first week of January, rather than thirty days after the release of Gomery’s second report.

No, it’s not a formal motion of non-confidence. No, it won’t constitutionally force the government to do anything. But in terms of politics, this move is brilliant for a number of reasons:

It keeps Layton from playing Harper’s lapdog. Martin and Harper expected Layton to duck and swerve; instead he struck. “Call an election now!” / “Call an election in February!” / “How about January?” / “Umm…”

A January election campaign means that Gomery’s second report gets released about two weeks before the polls open, living up to Martin’s promise to have an election after the report — so, how can Martin be upset about that?

A January election campaign takes place during a period when Parliament is shut down, and no major meetings on Paul’s agenda gets disrupted. Again, how can Martin be upset about that?

Best of all, though it doesn’t force Martin to actually do anything, it damns him whether he does anything or not. Martin has a few choices: he can ignore the motion, and get hammered during the February election for being undemocratic; he can try to force the opposition’s hand and bring forward a confidence motion, and get hammered during the Christmas campaign for being the one who pulled the trigger on parliament early, or he can accept the motion and call the election in January.

Strategically, an election campaign in January reduces the length of time Canadians have to forget about Gomery’s report. Gomery’s second report, which is unlikely to be damaging to the Liberals, still reminds voters of the Liberals’ record of corruption. And it also prevents finance minister Ralph Goodale from bribing voters with a juicy election budget laden with tax cuts and spending increases.

The anger that some Liberals have expressed is testament to how much Layton’s move has stung. And Harper is indeed sounding chastened. In this minority parliament, clearly Jack Layton has been the one leader who has done more to work for his constituents, who has tried to rise above childish Liberal/Conservative bickering to make this minority parliament work, and who has proven to be more strategically adept than parties five times his size.

[August1991]

But then Layton came back with the brilliant plan: introduce a non-binding motion during the NDP’s Opposition Day demanding that Paul Martin call an election during the first week of January, rather than thirty days after the release of Gomery’s second report.

Layton has not suggested doing that. Rather, Layton merely proposed that some way be found to delay the election until after Christmas, preferably a date in mid-February.

This Sunday, the three opposition leaders will try to find a way to make that happen. To be serious, the strategy cannot depend on "demanding" that Martin call an election in January. It won't work because Martin will just ignore the demand.

We'll have to see what the three come up with but I would not be surprised if the government fell on 8 Dec during the budget vote and we go to the polls some time in January. (16 Jan would be the earliest but Martin could delay that by a week or so).

[plusgood]

I agree, I think it's impossible to see the survival of the Liberal budget bills at this point. Although there's an interesting article out right now that again is suggesting this Tuesday will be the day. This way the oppositions parties can blame the Liberals for the Xmas election by saying they were not going to support Layton's plan, thus forcing them to call an election, and the Liberals can blame the oppostion as they actually pulled the plug. Fun fun.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...hub=CTVNewsAt11

Really I think it is for the best. I fail to understand what the major issue about an Xmas election is, espcially since 50% of the population could care less (as they don't vote), and I'm sure a sizable portion of the remaining 50% spends little time conserning themselves with the campaign. Not that I am particularly bothered by voter apathy. Anyone care to enlighten me about what the big deal of an Xmas election is?

[Yodeler]

Anyone care to enlighten me about what the big deal of an Xmas election is?

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Because 'Tis the season to be jolly, Fa la la la la, la la la la. ...

[August1991]

From CTV link above:

The Conservative Party wants to introduce a non-confidence motion in Parliament on Tuesday, CTV News has learned.

If all three opposition parties support the idea and it passes, the Liberal minority government will be defeated. This will put Canada into an election, with the vote to be held about the third week in December.

If true, the election date would be Tues 27 Dec, unless Martin agreed to delay it (which frankly, I think he would have to).

This may have been Harper's strategy all along. Layton is now in a position where it would be very hard for him to vote against a non-confidence motion.

[BHS]

Sadly, the only thing that interests me about this topic is how far the CBC will go to bury the Gomery report in support of the Natural Governing Party , should the election be held too soon after the final report is released. Nothing to see here folks! Move along! My prediction: second Liberal minority government is the most likely, with (shudder) a Liberal majority being the second most likely outcome. I base this on the completely scientific opinion polls I carry out periodically with people I know. No one who isn't a complete political junky knows or cares anything about the Gomery report. As far as they're concerned, it's just the Liberals pissing more money away in Quebec. Status quo carries the day.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear BHS,

No one who isn't a complete political junky knows or cares anything about the Gomery report. As far as they're concerned, it's just the Liberals pissing more money away in Quebec. Status quo carries the day.

Aye, they say 'familiarity breeds contempt', but with gov't, it usually breeds complacency. It's probably like getting buggered in prison. The first time you are shocked and horrified, and think it's unfair. But after 50 or a 100 times you just start looking at your watch.

[Guest eureka]

I think it would be easy rather than hard for the NDP to vote against a non-confidence motion on the mini-budget. It will contain many measure that are NDP wishes so where is the difficulty for the NDP.

I also think the NDP is making a serious error by not going full tilt against the Conservatives (and the Bloc in Quebec). There is where it can pick up disaffected Liberals and soft Conservatives.

[Leader Circle]

Dear BHS,

No one who isn't a complete political junky knows or cares anything about the Gomery report. As far as they're concerned, it's just the Liberals pissing more money away in Quebec. Status quo carries the day.

Aye, they say 'familiarity breeds contempt', but with gov't, it usually breeds complacency. It's probably like getting buggered in prison. The first time you are shocked and horrified, and think it's unfair. But after 50 or a 100 times you just start looking at your watch.

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flea,

I damn near spit orange juice all over the place when reading your analogy(no pun intended). Too funny! I bet you are right and many of the people who would vote for the Liberals have been so consumed with fear, thinking the Conservatives would be in power. It's all a part of the scare tactic by our Liberal media and the second Mulroney term, that scared many a Conservative too.

Despite all of this, I think the Conservatives have their make or break chance here. If they can't pull off a small minority here, then the Liberals are going to keep paying people off with their own money and stay in power for a long time!

[BHS]

If you think that anybody who voted Conservative in the last election is going to vote NDP in this election you're completely delusional. All of the soft Conservative voters fled over the course of the last decade.

[Guest eureka]

I know it will happen, BHS. My riding was a close three way race last time with a Conservative win. This time, it is going NDP and I think the Liberals will move from third to second. Still close but I am as certain as can be of the outcome barring some major surorises or goofs.

And we know how this Conservative party can blow it. The Conservative won here despite being clearly the least competent of the three and the least informed. It won't happen next time.

[shoop]

So Duceppe, Harper and Layton have met and this is the result.

If the Liberals don't agree to Layton's motion asking for an election in early January they will force the government's hand on the Conservative's opposition day the week of November 21st.

A very astute move by the three.

If the Liberals ignore Layton's motion we will have a Xmas election. Only happened three times in history, most recently 79-80.

The Xmas election thing wasn't an issue that election, although the papers of the day were making it sound like it would be.

It especially won't be an issue now as the only way we have a Xmas election is if the Liberals don't agree to Layton's proposal for an election early in January.

[Riverwind]

It especially won't be an issue now as the only way we have a Xmas election is if the Liberals don't agree to Layton's proposal for an election early in January.

The Xmas election issue will not be a significant factor. Liberals leaning voters will blame the opposition for it no matter how much spin they want to put on it. Conservative leaning voters will blame the Liberals. In short, it is not going to sway a lot of people.

I suspect that we will have an Xmas election because I think Martin will choose an Xmas election given a choice between a Xmas campaign and a campaign with Gomery II coming out two weeks before the vote.

[Canuck E Stan]

Quebec healthcare reforms

And according to Le Devoir, Health Minister Philippe Couillard will introduce some kind of white paper or legislative proposal on private care in the Assembly next month. It promises to be a fairly revolutionary document, one that will establish a parallel private health-care system and allow Quebecers to buy private health insurance as early as next year. The insurance could cover a wide range of procedures - hip- and knee-replacement, for example - that are now covered exclusively by public insurance.

A legislative proposal on private care in the Quebec Assembly...NEXT MONTH...that's really going to put a wrench in the healthcare issue for Martin if he calls the election in December.

This will make healthcare a non election issue if the media plays up the Quebec proposal, and possibly make it difficult for the NDP in it's attempt to make healthcare an election issue as well.

How will Martin explain "punishing" Alberta for their proposals and not Quebec.

I think Canadians outside of Quebec will question Martin on his government's promises on healthcare and the government's lack of anything workable for Canadians.

Enough, just very well may be enough, to get Martin to lose support to the Conservatives or get those who want public only healthcare to vote for the NDP.

I see a lot of ridings where Liberals won on a narrow victory last election losing this time, if those votes go to the NDP instead of the Liberals.

The Conservatives might just pull it off.

[Yodeler]

The Conservatives might just pull it off.

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Pull what off?

If either side "pulls off" a minority government, both, Martin's & Harper's heads will be on the chopping block.

What's next? Wait for the results of the 'Beautiful Minds" competition, hoping that Mr. Manning and Mr. Ignatieff end up in a dead heat and then duke it out as to who will lead?

Only in our dreams.

[shoop]

I don't agree. If Harper can pull off a minority he definitely will remain the leader for a while. For the following reasons.

1. No heir apparent.

2. The past 12+ years on the sidelines have given the Conservatives a touch of realism.

3. He deserves the chance to try and govern.

4. The Liberal leadership will give the Conservative government a little time to get their feet wet governing.

Pull what off?

If either side "pulls off"  a minority government, both, Martin's & Harper's heads will be on the chopping block.

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[tml12]

I don't agree. If Harper can pull off a minority he definitely will remain the leader for a while. For the following reasons.

1. No heir apparent.

2. The past 12+ years on the sidelines have given the Conservatives a touch of realism.

3. He deserves the chance to try and govern.

4. The Liberal leadership will give the Conservative government a little time to get their feet wet governing.

Pull what off?

If either side "pulls off"  a minority government, both, Martin's & Harper's heads will be on the chopping block.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Shoop is probably right, if only for reason#1. I don't see Harper ever winning a solid majority, but if he wins a minority they'll probably keep him around for awhile.

Is it just me, or have minority governments made this country's politics THAT much more interesting???