PQ Leadership Race

[August1991]

I know that this is an English-Canadian forum based in Alberta but I thought a thread on this topic would be worthwhile. It appears there isn't one, except for this thread.

Voting by PQ party members starts on Sunday 13 Nov by telephone and the results will be announced on Tues 15 Nov. When voting, each party member can indicate a preference for each candidate in order. This means that the ballots contain a preference ordering.

If one candidate does not receive over 50% of the first choice of party members, then candidates with less than 15% of votes are eliminated. The ballots cast for these eliminated candidates are then added to active candidates according to the the second choice indicated. And son on.

[This system is unfeasible for general elections but should work well for informed party members. It is like an old-style party convention compressed to a single ballot but widened to include all party members as delegates. Modern democracy has yet to decide how we should designate our representatives. Sigh.]

What you need to know:

Andre Boisclair, the frontrunner, is young (39), gay and fiscally right-wing. He admitted to snorting cocaine as a minister. He connects to younger voters.

Pauline Marois, second, is older, ambitious, experienced and maybe fiscally left-wing. Her husband has financial connections to Quebec state organizations. She's old line PQ.

If Boisclair does not get 50% on the first preference ballots, then he is in trouble. He will probably win on the second ballot if his first preference ballots are over 45% - but his leadership will be in question.

I think Marois is the second choice of many party members. She would be the safe choice. There is something symbolic about a woman achieving independence. I wonder whether Lise Payette would feel jealous.

There are about five other candidates.

----

BTW, the word "independence" is now commonly used in press reports or by PQ candidates. Before, people referred to sovereignty or used other synonyms.

BTW2, the first PQ government was elected on a 15 Nov. It is very Latin to turn dates into political movements. Sort of like 9/11.

[tml12]

I know that this is an English-Canadian forum based in Alberta but I thought a thread on this topic would be worthwhile.  It appears there isn't one, except for this thread.

Voting by PQ party members starts on Sunday 13 Nov by telephone and the results will be announced on Tues 15 Nov.  When voting, each party member can indicate a preference for each candidate in order.  This means that the ballots contain a preference ordering.

If one candidate does not receive over 50% of the first choice of party members, then candidates with less than 15% of votes are eliminated. The ballots cast for these eliminated candidates are then added to active candidates according to the the second choice indicated.  And son on.

[This system is unfeasible for general elections but should work well for informed party members.  It is like an old-style party convention compressed to a single ballot but widened to include all party members as delegates.  Modern democracy has yet to decide how we should designate our representatives. Sigh.]

What you need to know:

Andre Boisclair, the frontrunner, is young (39), gay and fiscally right-wing. He admitted to snorting cocaine as a minister.  He connects to younger voters.

Pauline Marois, second, is older, ambitious, experienced and maybe fiscally left-wing.  Her husband has financial connections to Quebec state organizations.  She's old line PQ.

If Boisclair does not get 50% on the first preference ballots, then he is in trouble.  He will probably win on the second ballot if his first preference ballots are over 45% - but his leadership will be in question.

I think Marois is the second choice of many party members. She would be the safe choice.  There is something symbolic about a woman achieving independence.  I wonder whether Lise Payette would feel jealous.

There are about five other candidates.

----

BTW, the word "independence" is now commonly used in press reports or by PQ candidates.  Before, people referred to sovereignty or used other synonyms.

BTW2, the first PQ government was elected on a 15 Nov.  It is very Latin to turn dates into political movements.  Sort of like 9/11.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Boisclair is the first choice among a lot of PQ members because of his great ability to connect with the fresh, vibrant youth wing of the party. He is very popular among university and CEGEP-aged students. While this part of Quebec's population (the children of Bill 101) is likely to be more separatist and left-wing then other parts of Quebec's population, they see Boisclair as more sincere and down-to-earth then Madame Marois.

Marois is basing here support on fringe left-wing candidates in the party. While left of Boisclair, she is not seen as very refreshing or inspiring. She also spent lots of $$$$ for a silent toilet in her Quebec City office a few years back.

Only Richard Legendre comes in a solid third, and he will probably be out on the first ballot.

Latest poll has Boisclair with 54%, Marois with 29%, Legendre with 6%. And that is after Boisclair LOST some support.

My Prediction: Boisclair wins PQ race and will defeat Charest in the next election. Charest's inability to connect with anyone in Quebec will carry the day, Boisclair's cocaine issue, which might play a factor elsewhere, will not be as much of an issue if he can ride the wave of Charest's unpopularity.

[cybercoma]

Instead of sovereignty association, will we begin calling it Independant Dependance?

[Riverwind]

Instead of sovereignty association, will we begin calling it Independant Dependance?

Jokes aside, it good the separatists are being more honest about what they are asking Quebequers to vote for. A 50%+1 vote for independence where everyone knows that every resident of Quebec will lose their Canadian citizenship has to be taken seriously.

[Bakunin]

I found a nice poll that explain well the race.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20051111...26/CPACTUALITES

If Boisclair become prime minister, here is what the poll show:

PQ - Boisclair : 41%

ADQ - Dumont: 22%

PLQ - Charest: 21%

If Marois become prime minister:

PQ - Marois: 35%

ADQ - Dumont: 29%

PLQ - Charest 23%

If Legendre become prime minister:

ADQ - Dumont: 31%

PQ - Legendre: 28%

PLQ - Charest 23%

The other 4-5 candidates have no chance in the leadership course.

Ok so as we see, Boisclair is able to get 2% of Liberals and 6-10% from the Adq.

ADQ = Right wing, new generation party. conservative and progressist.

And im part of that 6-10% , honestly im going for Dumont unless Boisclair gets elected and shake the PQ to bring it ideologically back where it was with Bouchard wich i think has a strong chance to happend. I want to see a tony blair style third way party ^^. I hope he will clean up the party and bring young people with him as a minister and this is where evrything change IMO, the pq is a coalition so they have a great depth of young politicians that could be skilled enough to become minister and remplace the old guard and on that point, they could bring up a better government than the ADQ but on the other hand, i doubt marois would be able to bring up a new set of ministers, she would problably keep landry's old minister.

[fellowtraveller]

A couple of questions:

When is the Quebec election? I know it is planned for 2007, but when in the year is likely? Can Charest delay it for a few months or a year?

As I understand it, all the PQ leadership contenders are committed to a unilateral declaration indepence via a quick referendum. How soon after the election is that likely?

[Bakunin]

There are max 2,5 years left so the tradition would be an election in april 2007, and the limit is april 2008.

However the government could strategically try to do an election in 2006 a bit like chretien did against the alliance. However that could be risky. There are also rumors that the liberals could push charest out of politics so they can restart with a fresh candidate.

And it could be pretty possible that at the election, the liberal push for another "meech" like constitutional negociation.

And as for the PQ, they all engaged to do a referendum in the first part of the mandate so in the first 2years, a bit like parizeau in 1995. In other word, if they get elected then a referendum is 99,9% sure to happend.

[shoop]

I read a piece (in French admittedly so I might not have caught it all) today that showed Boisclair in the low 40s heading into the first vote.

It will be tough for him to get over the top. Marois appears to have made much more strides in getting second choice votes.

The poll I read was of registered PQ members, which explains why it doesn't agree with what tml12 posted.

The big scare mongering going on is that the coke use is only the tip of the iceberg and the provincial Liberals could uncover something a lot more serious.

ps. I saw Dumont speak last week. Seemed like an interesting guy. He was addressing university students in Chicoutimi, not his ideal demographic, but he did pretty well, I think...

[tml12]

I read a piece (in French admittedly so I might not have caught it all) today that showed Boisclair in the low 40s heading into the first vote.

It will be tough for him to get over the top. Marois appears to have made much more strides in getting second choice votes.

The poll I read was of registered PQ members, which explains why it doesn't agree with what tml12 posted.

The big scare mongering going on is that the coke use is only the tip of the iceberg and the provincial Liberals could uncover something a lot more serious.

ps. I saw Dumont speak last week. Seemed like an interesting guy. He was addressing university students in Chicoutimi, not his ideal demographic, but he did pretty well, I think...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes shoop,

My poll was based on the CanWest/Montreal Gazette poll of ALL Quebecers, incluidng those who are not members of the PQ.

[Bakunin]

its a weird votation system because you choose for 4 candidate in the same vote so yeah, it could lead to surprise. We will see tuesday.

As for dumont, he his not a bad politician but, he doesn't have a strong team. He his alone by himself and he isnt very good at selling its party to peoples.

[shoop]

So the voting is just about finished and we should have a result in a couple of hours.

I like the news on the CBC. A dog, Pixelle Daoust, and a house plant, Gilbert Laplante, are among the registered voters.

Gilbert Laplante, what a brillaint name.

[fellowtraveller]

If I could I'd vote for the plant, the bastard couldn't run away and hide when the questions get tough.

I've heard that Pixelle is a bit of a whiner.

[August1991]

If I could I'd vote for the plant, the bastard couldn't run away and hide when the questions get tough.

I've heard that Pixelle is a bit of a whiner.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You can see Pixel here: R-C