Poll shows Conservatives within margin of error

[Yodeler]

New Global National/IPSOS Reid poll from Tuesday Wednesday show that the Conservatives are gaining ground.

Liberals 31% (-7%)

Conservatives 30% (+4%)

NDP 19% (+1%)

BQ 13% (+2%)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hate to tell you this, but that's old news on this forum.

LOOK!:

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/index.p...=15entry74838

What puzzles me, is that no one replied to it when it was brand spanking new news (BEFORE the papers got hold of it), but now that every two bit newsman has had a crack at giving his/her opinion on it, everybody here jumps on it.

What's the matter? Is everyone here afraid to form an opinion that is entirely their own?

[Canuck E Stan]

The NEW latest poll

The Globe and Mail and CTV News poll

Conservatives 31 per cent

Liberals 28 per cent

New Democrats 20 per cent

Green Party 7 per cent.

[tml12]

The NEW latest poll

The Globe and Mail and CTV News poll

Conservatives 31 per cent

Liberals 28 per cent

New Democrats  20 per cent

Green Party 7 per cent.

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That is the other poll with the margin of error factored in, eh?

[Yodeler]

There will not be an election before the new year ...

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Everybody knows that.

What we DON'T know is if there will be one in January.

I'm starting to think "yes".

[Yodeler]

The NEW latest poll

The Globe and Mail and CTV News poll

Liberals 28 per cent

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31% one day, 28% the next ... where will it all end? In the late teens?

[ScottBrison]

There will not be an election before the new year ...

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Everybody knows that.

If everyone knows it why are there people wondering if there will be an election before the new year?

...if the election is held before the New Year...

[shoop]

It is beautiful. In three short days the spin has changed from 'Martin exonerated' to 'Oh my God, they realize he was involved the entire way! What the f*ck are we gonna do?

[newbie]

Not all of us shoop.

[shoop]

Not all of us shoop.

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True not all ... y'all are holding onto 28% support nationally. A great majority of Canadians think even IF Martin wasn't involved he should be held accountable for it.

Perhaps most disconcertingly for the Liberals, the poll finds that 71 per cent of voters believe that, even if Mr. Martin was not directly involved in the scandal, he should be held accountable for it.

Buh bye Martin. Alas, he tried to avenge his father but won a mere pyrrhic victory.

[tml12]

Not all of us shoop.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True not all ... y'all are holding onto 28% support nationally. A great majority of Canadians think even IF Martin wasn't involved he should be held accountable for it.

Perhaps most disconcertingly for the Liberals, the poll finds that 71 per cent of voters believe that, even if Mr. Martin was not directly involved in the scandal, he should be held accountable for it.

Buh bye Martin. Alas, he tried to avenge his father but won a mere pyrrhic victory.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is no doubt in my mind that Martin SHOULD have known about it.

However, I can believe that if Chretien micromanaged the program from the PMO than it is very possible that Martin didn't know. We all know the two men did not like each other and kept secrets from each other.

I still say Shoop, although you don't agree, that if the Conservatives had another leader they would be in majority territory now. I agree that the Liberals need some time-out but I do not think Canadians are warming up to Mr. Harper.

I think we are seeing two men with established political histories whom the public has made their minds up about. In the next election, I believe we will have another minority and then a leadership review for the major parties.

Only Layton and Duceppe's jobs are safe at this point.

[shoop]

tml12, I am not saying that Harper is without fault. But, I don't know who that other leader could possibly be. Maybe, maybe if Lord hadn't changed his mind at the last minute (TWICE) but that is about it. Definitely not Belinda, Tony Clement or McKay. Maybe Jim Prentice?

This recent poll that puts the CPC up a point nationally does put them very close to majority territory. The tie in Ontario, coupled with the Liberals concentration of votes in urban centres, gives the CPC a legitimate shot at 60 seats in Ontario.

Say the party gains two seats in the west, that gives them 70 seats from that region. Say they add two seats in a Quebec breakthrough and add a seat to what they presently hold in Atlantic Canada. That leaves them with 10 seats east of Ontario and more than the Liberals won last year.

If Harper wins a minority he won't face a leadership review. But that is still a big IF at this point.

There is no doubt in my mind that Martin SHOULD have known about it.

However, I can believe that if Chretien micromanaged the program from the PMO than it is very possible that Martin didn't know.  We all know the two men did not like each other and kept secrets from each other.

I still say Shoop, although you don't agree, that if the Conservatives had another leader they would be in majority territory now.  I agree that the Liberals need some time-out but I do not think Canadians are warming up to Mr. Harper.

I think we are seeing two men with established political histories whom the public has made their minds up about.  In the next election, I believe we will have another minority and then a leadership review for the major parties.

Only Layton and Duceppe's jobs are safe at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[tml12]

tml12, I am not saying that Harper is without fault. But, I don't know who that other leader could possibly be. Maybe, maybe if Lord hadn't changed his mind at the last minute (TWICE) but that is about it. Definitely not Belinda, Tony Clement or McKay. Maybe Jim Prentice?

This recent poll that puts the CPC up a point nationally does put them very close to majority territory. The tie in Ontario, coupled with the Liberals concentration of votes in urban centres, gives the CPC a legitimate shot at 60 seats in Ontario.

Say the party gains two seats in the west, that gives them 70 seats from that region. Say they add two seats in a Quebec breakthrough and add a seat to what they presently hold in Atlantic Canada. That leaves them with 10 seats east of Ontario and more than the Liberals won last year.

If Harper wins a minority he won't face a leadership review. But that is still a big IF at this point.

Fair enough, I'll buy that. I think Lord would have been good, if only because he is young, attractive, and probably have more luck in the East.

That is still a big IF. Yet, I see it possible for the Conservatives to dump Harper in a minority. They wouldn't have in June of 2004, but I am not sure they would want to risk the Liberals finding someone who is young and vibrant and looking to rebrand the party (unlike Martin).

At this point, we'll have to see. If the Conservatives can hold this lead for at least three weeks, we'll be having a very interesting time in this country.

[shoop]

That is still a big IF.  Yet, I see it possible for the Conservatives to dump Harper in a minority.  They wouldn't have in June of 2004, but I am not sure they would want to risk the Liberals finding someone who is young and vibrant and looking to rebrand the party (unlike Martin).

At this point, we'll have to see.  If the Conservatives can hold this lead for at least three weeks, we'll be having a very interesting time in this country.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The real reason why I don't agree is there is no real heir apparent. If there were he would probably be gone already.

It is very possible for the CPC to hold this lead for a few weeks. But it is all up to Jacko. Harper isn't going to risk getting screwed by the NDs again. Guess we will have to see what Layton says on Monday....

[tml12]

That is still a big IF.  Yet, I see it possible for the Conservatives to dump Harper in a minority.  They wouldn't have in June of 2004, but I am not sure they would want to risk the Liberals finding someone who is young and vibrant and looking to rebrand the party (unlike Martin).

At this point, we'll have to see.  If the Conservatives can hold this lead for at least three weeks, we'll be having a very interesting time in this country.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The real reason why I don't agree is there is no real heir apparent. If there were he would probably be gone already.

It is very possible for the CPC to hold this lead for a few weeks. But it is all up to Jacko. Harper isn't going to risk getting screwed by the NDs again. Guess we will have to see what Layton says on Monday....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

For sure. Essentially, Layton's dilemma is whether or not to call an election and risk losing his influence (which he obviously would in a Conservative minority situation).

I think Layton will dither a bit more and then continue supporting the Liberals.

[Yodeler]

There will not be an election before the new year ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Everybody knows that.

If everyone knows it why are there people wondering if there will be an election before the new year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If there is a non-confidence vote on Nov. 15, the earliest, AND THE ONLY 2005 DATE, that the election could happen would be Dec. 27, right?

And who would be blamed if Canadians had to go to the polls the day after Boxing Day?

Paul Martin, of course.

Speaking with Peter MacKay just the other day, he noted that Mr. Martin can choose to lengthen the campaign ... up to a 55-day limit ... meaning the vote wouldn't occur until January, after the holidays.

[shoop]

If there is a non-confidence vote on Nov. 15, the earliest, AND THE ONLY 2005 DATE, that the election could happen would be Dec. 27, right?

And who would be blamed if Canadians had to go to the polls the day after Boxing Day?

Paul Martin, of course.

Speaking with Peter MacKay just the other day, he noted that Mr. Martin can choose to lengthen the campaign ... up to a 55-day limit ... meaning the vote wouldn't occur until January, after the holidays.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kind of a random name drop all in all.

Don't think Peter is right on that one. I *tried* searching through the Canada Elections Act to confirm, but couldn't stay awake. Take a look yourself if you want. www.elections.ca

IF Peter is right then we will probably see an election over the holidays with a January trip to the ballot box. I wouldn't doubt if the five major parties agree to not campaign actively over Xmas week.

[Yodeler]

I *tried* searching through the Canada Elections Act to confirm, but couldn't stay awake. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny you said that, because that's exactly what *I* remember doing last night before *I* fell asleep.

[tml12]

I *tried* searching through the Canada Elections Act to confirm, but couldn't stay awake. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny you said that, because that's exactly what *I* remember doing last night before *I* fell asleep.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Imagine the people who wrote it...

[Montgomery Burns]

Globe and Mail reports new poll: Conservatives 31%, Liberals 28%

60% said they don’t believe PMPM’s contention that he was not involved in the scandal, while only 33% do believe him. Moreover, 62% of those surveyed said Mr. Martin’s apologies for the scandal are a desperate effort to stay in office. Only 22% believed the Liberal Party is beginning to accept responsibility for the program’s abuses.

I realize it is only a poll, but nevertheless, it appears that the Liberals lead has vanished.

In other news, Scott Brison eats crow:

Liberal MP Scott Brison has officially apologized for the malicious and false statements he made about the National Citizens Coalition.

See below a letter he emailed me late Friday after I demanded an apology and retraction:

Dear Mr. Nicholls:

Thank you for your letter dated today concerning my statement regarding the NCC.

I wish to acknowledge that my statement was factually incorrect in two ways:

* I was in error to say that the NCC was charged six times with violations of the Elections Act.

* It was premature to say that there was a contravention of the Lobbyist Registration Act. In order to resolve and clarify the nature of these activities, I have asked the Registrar of Lobbyists to investigate. I was provided with incorrect information, but I accept responsibilityfor my statements. I regret my errors, and I withdraw those statements categorically.

Please accept my apology.

Sincerely, Scott Brison

Good of him to apologize, but why wasn't it a public apology, especially after he went public with his lies?

And probably the funniest thing I've read all week, courtesy of the Liberal Party website:

Mr. Harper continues to grandstand about accountability yet he clearly does not practice what he preaches. Accountable government stems from accountable leaders. Canadians deserve nothing less.

[tml12]

Globe and Mail reports new poll:  Conservatives 31%, Liberals 28%

60% said they don’t believe PMPM’s contention that he was not involved in the scandal, while only 33% do believe him. Moreover, 62% of those surveyed said Mr. Martin’s apologies for the scandal are a desperate effort to stay in office. Only 22% believed the Liberal Party is beginning to accept responsibility for the program’s abuses.

I realize it is only a poll, but nevertheless, it appears that the Liberals lead has vanished.

In other news, Scott Brison eats crow:

Liberal MP Scott Brison has officially apologized for the malicious and false statements he made about the National Citizens Coalition.

See below a letter he emailed me late Friday after I demanded an apology and retraction:

Dear Mr. Nicholls:

Thank you for your letter dated today concerning my statement regarding the NCC.

I wish to acknowledge that my statement was factually incorrect in two ways:

* I was in error to say that the NCC was charged six times with violations of the Elections Act.

* It was premature to say that there was a contravention of the Lobbyist Registration Act. In order to resolve and clarify the nature of these activities, I have asked the Registrar of Lobbyists to investigate. I was provided with incorrect information, but I accept responsibilityfor my statements. I regret my errors, and I withdraw those statements categorically.

Please accept my apology.

Sincerely, Scott Brison

Good of him to apologize, but why wasn't it a public apology, especially after he went public with his lies?

And probably the funniest thing I've read all week, courtesy of the Liberal Party website:

Mr. Harper continues to grandstand about accountability yet he clearly does not practice what he preaches. Accountable government stems from accountable leaders. Canadians deserve nothing less.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it's that actually believe that he knew but believe that he should have known.

[shoop]

That 60% who don't believe Martin are going to swing the election towards the CPC. Strange stuff going on, but it does fit historical trends. The Liberals get free rein till they really f*ck up. They have and now it is time for them to head to the sidelines for a little while.

[tml12]

That 60% who don't believe Martin are going to swing the election towards the CPC. Strange stuff going on, but it does fit historical trends. The Liberals get free rein till they really f*ck up. They have and now it is time for them to head to the sidelines for a little while.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Shoop,

It is called being Canada's Natural Governing Party.

As L. Ian Macdonald noted in the Gazette today, the Liberals have been in power in the twentieth century "about as long as the Communists in the USSR."

[shoop]

Shoop,

It is called being Canada's Natural Governing Party.

As L. Ian Macdonald noted in the Gazette today, the Liberals have been in power in the twentieth century "about as long as the Communists in the USSR."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Call it what you will, but this is definitely bad news for the Liberals. If they stick with the scary, scary, scary rhetoric they are going to have a tough go of it.

[tml12]

Shoop,

It is called being Canada's Natural Governing Party.

As L. Ian Macdonald noted in the Gazette today, the Liberals have been in power in the twentieth century "about as long as the Communists in the USSR."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Call it what you will, but this is definitely bad news for the Liberals. If they stick with the scary, scary, scary rhetoric they are going to have a tough go of it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree the Liberals need to use some fresh rhetoric...but apparently as long as Gomery is out of the news they have an easy minority...which is bad news for the Conservatives, who cannot run on scandal alone...