Fall, 2005 Session of Parliament

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Liberal-NDP Alliance is Over: Layton

NDP Leader Jack Layton says his party is no longer in bed with the federal Liberal government.

Layton says the Liberal-NDP alliance that kept Prime Minister Paul Martin in power in the spring ended when the federal budget received Royal assent.

The Liberals struck a 4.6 billion dollar deal with the NDP in the spring to help pass the federal budget.

Layton isn't ruling out a possible coalition with the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives to bring down the government this fall.

Interestingly, Layton is sounding very conciliatory towards the Conservatives. The Liberals will be trying to exploit this possible new Bloc-Con-NDP alliance, but hopefully none of these parties will let that happen.

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Layton's timing is impeccable. The Liberals are about to start on a big Western offensive tomorrow, and Layton drops this bombshell tonite.

[Guest Warwick Green]

Layton's timing is impeccable. The Liberals are about to start on a big Western offensive  tomorrow, and Layton drops this bombshell tonite.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like all party leaders Layton is jockying for position. Mother Martin has promised an election after the Gomery report. The other parties will have to determine if they want to wait this long or force an election beforehand. The big loser in all this has to be the CPC. Harper seems in free fall and nothing he does seems to be able to stop it.

[mirror]

Maybe, maybe NOT.

Check the latest Ipsos Reid National Poll which came out today in the National Post however bear in mind that the undecided has skyrocketed to 19%. This is excellent news.

[shoop]

Good thread mirror.

This is very interesting news.

Layton is the key to a fall election.

I would guess that all four parties have most, if not all, of their candidates nominated for the election and probably have lawn signs, posters, etc. ready to go.

It will be interesting to see what the Liberals fight the election on.

If the bloc-CPC coalition had worked in the spring it would have been very easy to make the central theme of the election about stopping this 'unholy alliance'.

With the Nds joining the fray against the Liberals it will be all about Gomery v. stop the scary Conservatives (replace with Bloc in Quebec.)

Kinda tough to campaign on an unnecessarily early election call when ALL the opposition leaders in the house pushed for it. Plus we are getting close to the historical lifespan for mnority governments, yada yada.

[Guest eureka]

Our Local Liberal candidate was going dorr-to-door yesterday. I did not answer since I don't really want to speak to her without an audience. She is a political animal from way back and not my cup of tea.

She is obviously jumping the gun which is a rather stupid thing to do where timing is so critical. She is not stupid or ignorant of issues, though, wheras the incumbent CPC is both stupid and ignorant - but a very nice man.

Last time this was a three way, and very close race. I expect NDP to take it in the upcoming election. I may even decide to give them the winning hand by helping them.

My problem is that all parties have important policy planks that are anathema to me.

[SirSpanky]

Damn, I wish my MP would do that. I would love to dig in. I haven't even heard of any meetings in the last few years. Funny how this one moron can feed my democratic deficit flame.

[cybercoma]

This will certainly make reading the paper more enjoyable as the top 4 parties start their no-holds-barred free-for-all....

[shoop]

This will certainly make reading the paper more enjoyable as the top 4 parties start their no-holds-barred free-for-all....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think the CPC may try and lower the decibel level in the house for this session.

Harper got hammered for being too negative throughout the last session and has gotten some good press for his statesmanlike handling of the Michaell Jean affair.

Now that the NDs are truly back in opposition the Libeals will be taking quite a pounding as it is.

[Guest Warwick Green]

Maybe, maybe NOT.

Check the latest Ipsos Reid National Poll which came out today in the National Post however bear in mind that the undecided has skyrocketed to 19%. This is excellent news.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Was it not Harold Wilson who once said that a week in politics is an eternity? God knows what will happen between now and an election - which could be next Spring. I expected - and wanted - Harper to win the last election. But the campaign was a distaster - loose lipped candidates, a horrible debate and accusations of Martin and Layton supporting kiddie porn. My sense is that nothing good will happen to the Cons over the coming months.

[mirror]

I expect all hell is going to break loose this Fall as everyone is going to be jockeying for position in a supposed election call 30 days after Gomery although surprise, suprprise, Diithers is trying to weasle out of it.

I wonder what the real numbers are now:

Commons will again play numbers game

Opposition parties and political malcontents are threatening to bring down the Liberals when Parliament returns this fall unless Prime Minister Paul Martin tailors the agenda of his minority government to their policy demands.

The New Democratic Party and several Independent MPs are the latest to sound the alarm and their voices could carry increasing clout if Natural Resources Minister John Efford, who has diabetes, elects to quit politics -- a decision he is expected to make in the coming weeks.

Mr. Efford's resignation would further weaken the Liberals' hand in the House of Commons' numbers game and could lead to an early election.

As the Liberals begin a three-day caucus meeting, political appeasement and developing a survival strategy that will see them through to an election promised for early 2006, rank high on the government's agenda.

But the shopping list of demands is already growing and could include: a long-term fix to the so-called fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces; greater military involvement in Sudan's Darfur region; stricter rules to guide proposed bank mergers; electoral reform; changes to the Canada Pension Plan; and increased financial aid for Western cattle farmers.

"We're going to get as much as we can out of a minority Parliament that is in the interest of ... the quality of life of Canadians," said NDP House leader Libby Davies, who said a detailed fall agenda will be set at an NDP caucus meeting next month.

Party leader Jack Layton went one step further, saying he would not rule out forming alliances with the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives to defeat the Liberals.

The New Democrats stripped the last federal budget of billions of dollars of corporate tax cuts in exchange for $4.6-billion in social spending initiatives. The Liberals agreed to the deal in return for NDP support in a series of confidence votes that could have sparked an early election.

"It has returned to what it was like before the budget," Mr. Layton told Le Devoir. "[support for the government] will be on a case-by- case basis. There is no longer an alliance."

Independent MPs Pat O'Brien from London, Ont., and Edmonton's David Kilgour -- both former Liberal backbenchers -- are unlikely to change their pattern of voting against the government, but Carolyn Parrish, the Independent Toronto-area MP who was kicked out of the Liberal caucus last year, said her support is no longer guaranteed either.

[Cameron]

I hope PM renegs on the election promise, god that would be good....I'd be in heaven...."Another promise bites the dust.." hahahah

[shoop]

The NDs changing their stance really makes the independents sort of irrelevant.

If the NDs, CPC and BQ decide there should be an election, well there will be an election and there is nothing the Liberals can do about it.

I don't think Martin will reneg on the promise for a number of reasons. The Liberals are no better than 50/50 to survive that long in the first place. If he backs off, coupled with whatever comes out of Gomery, the opposition will force and election and the broken promise plus Gomery results will be THE issues.

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The Cons don't want an election any more than the Libranos. Both of those party leaders know they are respectively toast if that were to happen now, or in the near future. Bad as it is for Dithers, and it's very bad, it is much worse for Harper.

[shoop]

Care to provide a reason for that without the overt partisanship or unsubstantiated 'plummeting' comments?

Harper is within striking distance of winning a minority. If he wins he saves his job. If Martin only wins a minority he is toast.

At this point I would say a CPC minoritygovernment is far more likely than a Liberal majority government if an election were held in the fall.

[mirror]

Care to provide a reason for that without the overt partisanship or unsubstantiated 'plummeting' comments?

Harper is within striking distance of winning a minority. If he wins he saves his job. If Martin only wins a minority he is toast.

At this point I would say a CPC minoritygovernment is far more likely than a Liberal majority government if an election were held in the fall.

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Are you nuts - take a look at the last 20 national polls.

Harper has been in freefall for months and is now less popular than Layton.

The Cons will be very lucky to get 75 seats this time around.

The biggest threat to Canada at the moment is that the Liberals will get another majority government.

[shoop]

Are you nuts

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why start up with personal attacks again?

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Let's see if we can sort this out.

Lib Con Bloc NDP Ind Spk Total

2004 election results 135 99 54 19 1 0 308

Speaker 134 99 54 19 1 1 308

Cadman 134 99 54 19 0 1 307

O'Brien 133 99 54 19 1 1 307

Parrish 132 99 54 19 2 1 307

Kilgour 131 99 54 19 3 1 307

Stronach 132 98 54 19 3 1 307

Any more changes than those above anyone knows about?

So if these above figures are correct to pass, or NOT pass, a piece of legislation 154 votes are required (306 divided by 2 = 153. Then add 1 to get a majority vote of 154 votes)

So who has a minimm of 154 votes:

Libs & Bloc = 186 votes

Libs & Cons = 230 votes

Libs & NDP & 3 Ind = 154 votes ( highly unlikely, but possible)

Cons & Bloc + 3 Ind = 155 votes ( more possible than previous grouping)

Cons & Bloc & NDP = 171 seats

If anyone is under the impression that the three independent MPs are non-events come this Fall, they are sadly mistaken.

Already Dithers trial balloon about delaying the election as he promised last year has gone over like a lead baloon, and he has recanted today, trying to end any more discussion about it.

After analysing these stats does anyone else here get the feeling that the decision about the election date may not be up to Dithers at all?

[shoop]

After analysing these stats does anyone else here get the feeling that the decision about the election date may not be up to Dithers at all?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Learn what actually are considered "statistics".

The numbers representing standing in the house prove what I said earlier. The Liberals will be lucky to make it to the Gomery report.

Who knows what the Conservatives will do? The new ads may be a sign that they are gearing up for a fall election.