Liberals itching to go to the polls this Fall?

[mirror]

Probably another trial balloon to test the waters, but Liberals have been talking to reporters this week, suggesting that they may want an election sooner rather than later, possibly this Fall.

If we were to go to the polls this autumn, what would your forecast in seats be for the different parties?

Here's mine:

Bloc: 60 seats

Cons: 90 seats

Libs: 130 seats

New Democrats: 28 seats

Liberals mull bringing themselves down

[August1991]

Bloc: 60 seats

Cons: 90 seats

Libs: 130 seats

New Democrats: 28 seats

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ballpark? Not bad. But a week can be an eternity in politics, as we saw this past spring. So let's wait and see how, in trite words, the universe will unfold as it should.

[cybercoma]

no no, we mustn't go to the polls until Gomery releases his inquiry. Unless of course they want to go to the polls in the fall, then again in the winter should they win. That's ok.

[kimmy]

no no, we mustn't go to the polls until Gomery releases his inquiry.  Unless of course they want to go to the polls in the fall, then again in the winter should they win.  That's ok.

Well obviously they can't just go calling an election, after PMPM went on TV to plead with us to understand how important it is to get all the facts from Gomery before he calls an election.

But what if they "accidentally" (wink-wink, nudge-nudge) lost a confidence vote and had no choice but to go to the polls? The question is, of course, how to (as they say in the movies) "make it look like an accident."

-k

[Riverwind]

no no, we mustn't go to the polls until Gomery releases his inquiry.  Unless of course they want to go to the polls in the fall, then again in the winter should they win.  That's ok.

It could also be a strategy to put the opposition off base. They need the support of opposition parties in the fall to keep going now that the NDP deal is done. Dropping rumors of an early election may be just that. I also heard rumours of other strategies such as cancelling the fall session of parliment entirely.

Personally, I think PM PM would not go for a fall election unless absolutely forced to since it would be politically very difficult to govern a minority after Gomery is released (as you point out). However, in minority parliment the Libs may not have a choice.

[Fortunata]

Will Martin get a preview of Gomery's report? If it is damning to him personally and he gets wind of it first I can see the Libs engineering an election prior to the public being informed.

But I think that's highly unlikely. IMV Gomery will not criticize Martin. And won't that make Harper hopping mad, all his "happy" ice cream and pancake serving down the tubes. Geez, that poor weasel just can't win can he?

Seriously, if Martin comes out of Gomery relatively unscathed, it will be status quo after the promised election.

[mirror]

Whenever the polls are favourable to the Liberals and show that they have a shot at a majority government, do you not think that people like Scott Reid will be sending Martin running to the GG's residence to drop the writ? Come on now, we are dealing with people who have only one mission in life - controlling the government., and the issuing of government contracts, and nothing, and I mean nothing else, matters. What other reason would there be for these people to go into politics?