CIA Predicts End of Europe

[August1991]

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems....

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

Scotsman

Make of this what you will. Link may require free registration.

[caesar]

I think they better worry about their own country and it astronomical growing deficit .

[Guest eureka]

Is the CIA woried about wht has already become a rival? Some of its conclusions are onvious and no surprise, but they are not particularly relevant to Europe. Of course those very large antions will pas individual European nations, but not Europe in that time.

I would speculate that the US may very well break up before Europe does.

[Grantler]

Oh come on, cut those poor Americans some slack. They will elect a Clinton-like present next time around and we will be pushing and shoving to see him/her get off the plane in Ottawa to talk about how they are going to prop NAFTA up.

[moderateamericain]

funny thing about opinions and speculation: they are based on theoretical what ifs? theres no proper data to prove or disprove either theory. I for the sake of trade hope the European Union thrives, it will only benefit us here in the us by giving us a strong trustworthy business partner, that way we can move away from the chinese. i just dont want to see the european union become the next United Nations, leave it as a tool to promote economic growth.

[I Miss Trudeau]

I for the sake of trade hope the European Union thrives, it will only benefit us here in the us by giving us a strong trustworthy business partner,  that way we can move away from the chinese.

Somehow, I don't see that happening until Europeans are willing to work for a bowl of rice a day.

[August1991]

I for the sake of trade hope the European Union thrives, it will only benefit us here in the us by giving us a strong trustworthy business partner,  that way we can move away from the chinese.

Somehow, I don't see that happening until Europeans are willing to work for a bowl of rice a day.

I suppose you mean, IMT, that since Chinese work for little, and if we trade with them, we too will have to lower our wages to theirs and we'll be impoverished too.

Well, what would happen if the Chinese worked for nothing, no wage at all?

Yet, in effect, that's what happens when we use new technology to replace jobs done by humans. With all the new technology, should we be afraid of our wages falling to nothing?

[R1NG0]

If humans are replaced with technology their would still be jobs in repairing and maintaining those machines. As long as we make it so they cannot repair themselves, we should be fine. hahaha

[I Miss Trudeau]

I suppose you mean, IMT, that since Chinese work for little, and if we trade with them, we too will have to lower our wages to theirs and we'll be impoverished too.

No, I mean the chances of Europe replacing China as the major trading partner are very slim due to the fact that the costs of production in Europe are astronomical when compared with the costs of production in China. It doesn't seem likely that European labor costs will go down that substantially, and the pessimist in me doesn't see labor costs in China going up that substantially, either. It is simply not profitable for the US economy to make the switch from China to Europe.

[moderateamericain]

i think your assesment is correct, however if America wants to stay the greatest nation on the planet (im talkiing economically here) then we would have to shift are demands to europe rather than asia, i believe in 10 to 20 years when the communist hardliners die out, china will evolve into some sort of middle ground between communism and democracy, the reason i think this is, growth in any country does not promote socialstic or marxist ideals, when people see the potential to grow and raise there standard of living they no longer have the desire to stay at status quo with there peers, instead the human desire to excel takes over. And China is growing VERY fast.

[caesar]

If humans are replaced with technology their would still be jobs in repairing and maintaining those machines. As long as we make it so they cannot repair themselves, we should be fine. hahaha

Not really; they are making things cheaply now; like cell phones; disposable; not worth repairing.

[Montgomery Burns]

The CIA is predicting the end o f the EU, not Europe.

I agree with them. Western Europe - in general - is a mess. Their Big Three (Germany, France, and Italy) all have over double digit unemployment. Germans get 18 months of unemployment insurance. The French only work 35 hours per week and get 5 weeks paid vacation per year plus 11 statutory holidays. Some of the countries have a top tax rate of 60%. Who wants to work hard when the govt is taking 60% of your money? That is why they have a brain drain, as their brightest and most hardworking leave "The EUtopia" for the USA.

Their socialized healthcare system might even be worse than Canada's. We've all read about the UK's horrid healthcare system and France lost 15,000 people last year during a "heatwave" because of their horrid healthcare system.

The EU continues (like Canada) to mooch off of the USA when it comes to defending themself.

And like the totalitarian regimes in the world, they direct all their rage at the USA for their failures. Sadly, their people can't see this.

Plus, Europe is scared. They are scared of the radical Muslims that are amongst them.

When Europe goes up in flames again - and it will (those clowns just can't help themselves) - I hope the US does not save them again. I also hope that Canada does not illegally invade any countries there that are absolutely no threat to them whatsoever - like they did in WWI and WWII.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear Montgomery Burns,

Quite a hilarious post.

Especially this...

When Europe goes up in flames again - and it will (those clowns just can't help themselves) - I hope the US does not save them again. I also hope that Canada does not illegally invade any countries there that are absolutely no threat to them whatsoever - like they did in WWI and WWII.

I'll take a pound of whatever your smoking...

As far as countries that are due to collapse, the USA is perilously close. Unless they get their 'poop in a group' soon, it is going to be a very hard fall.