Is McGuinty helping......

[Stoker]

.....or at the very least, push the people of Ontario away from the Liberal government?

Could McGuinty's demand for 5 billion dollars to be returned to the province of Ontario from the Feds, help the Conservaties, if the Federal Libs refuse?

Does this play into the leanings of the CPC (and the Bloc for that mater) of more controls being granted to the provinces?

[caesar]

yOU WISH

[Newfie Canadian]

McGuinty is of course trying to get re-elected by using the oldest trick in the book: bash Ottawa, and it is going to be a common theme.

Some pundits are saying that his reproach of Liberal Ontario MPs isn't sittiing well with those MPs, his brother among them.

To answer your question Stoker, who knows?

[Stoker]

caesar Posted on Feb 20 2005, 01:40 PM

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yOU WISH 

What a well thought out responce, thanks for your input. Insightful as always caesar.........

McGuinty is of course trying to get re-elected by using the oldest trick in the book: bash Ottawa, and it is going to be a common theme.

Some pundits are saying that his reproach of Liberal Ontario MPs isn't sittiing well with those MPs, his brother among them.

To answer your question Stoker, who knows?

Well the way that I look at it Newf is that Dithers has one of two options.

1. He can go along with McGuinty and give Ontario back the 5 billion (of the 23 that Ontario contributes) and in doing so, set a dangerous precident for the federal Liberal government when it comes to dealing with other contributing provinces to equalization. Not too mention, as was recenlty proven by Ole Danny Boy, dealing with provinces that are on the cusp of becoming "have provinces" could become even more tricky.

-OR-

2. Tell McGuinty to poke it, and in doing so, risk alienating Ontario voters from the Federal Liberals. Now regardless of where these potential voters go (CPC or NDP), in the end, less votes for the Liberals, equals greater prospects for the CPC, either through direct votes to the Conservaties or Left-wing vote splitting because of the NDP.

Add this issue, to what looks like will be a 180 commited by PM PM on support for BMD and the recent annoucnment that Canadian soldiers will be training Iraqi's (granted likely in Jordan) for Bush's "illegal War With Iraq", and it looks more and more like the CPC is gaining ammo for possable Spring time election........

[ticker]

Or how about the feds keeping that 5 billion to maintain the percentages of payments required... just give Ontario 5 billion using the back door.

What’s that you say the feds are 5 billion short ... lets look in Alberta’s cupboard and see if there is some loose change ... after all it is only a couple of seats.

[Shakeyhands]

good one Ticker, This I believe is along the same lines as Kleins pre election comments.

and why shouldn't McGuinty ask for some back, by far Ontario contributes the most of the provinces.

And lets not forget that he is dealing with the huge mess that the Harris/Eves Gov't left, no there was a couple of poor leaders

[Newfie Canadian]

Not too mention, as was recenlty proven by Ole Danny Boy, dealing with provinces that are on the cusp of becoming "have provinces" could become even more tricky.

And there's the rub for Martin, Stoker.

Calvert and Lord are setting up the war tents to get the same kind of deals as NL and NS got.

The problem McGuinty has though is his own governments track record.

If memory serves, he broke all sorts of election promises shortly after taking office. How are Ontarian's memories for that kind of thing?

I know he tried to blame the PC party in Ontario, so can he now believe that the voters of Ontario will believe that it's the fed's fault?

I think the equalization formula will be ammended. It's the only option for Martin. He can't afford, financially and politically, to go around to all the provinces and territories setting up little side deals.

The formula has to be fixed.

it looks more and more like the CPC is gaining ammo for possable Spring time election

I'll wait for the policy convention to before I go looking for CPC lawn signs.

[Guest eureka]

It will be all over and forgotten before any election, I would think. It plays well for McGuinty at the moment and at the moment is all that he would care about.

The real problem for McGuinty is the stupid signing of the "Pledge" for the CTF that he would not raise taxes. That signing for an insignificant pressure group served him well in the last election but hamstrung the government.

I don't like it since it, on the surface, betrays Ontario's role as the mature supporter of a fair and equal provincial status in Canada. But, I don't expect it to be very long drawn out.

[Newfie Canadian]

The other thing to keep in mind is that a provincial party's success/failure doesn't always correspond into success/ failure for it's federal counterpart.

It's all in the timing and the spin.

[Grantler]

Personally, I don't think that this will be a big problem for Ontarians. We have went through so much other crap over the past 10 years that something like this is childs play.

I don't think that it is possible for the Federal Liberals to lose more votes in the province than they already have.

They about all the crap that went down preceeding the last election. Everyone was predicting that the Conservatives were going to actually pull it off. And that is when big things such as McGuinty's health care premiums and the sponsorship scandal.

Truth be told, Ontario was in a lot worse with that then the 5 billion dollars D.M. wants back. Twenty-three billion dollars is a lot to pay out but I think that Ontarians are used to it and care for the have-nots.

So, if we get it back, right on. If we don't, who cares.

[Argus]

The real problem for McGuinty is the stupid signing of the "Pledge" for the CTF that he would not raise taxes. That signing for an insignificant pressure group served him well in the last election but hamstrung the government.

McGuinty signed that pledge because many suspected he would be a spendthrift. The pledge was to not raise taxes without holding a referendum. He chose to raise taxes by a very large degree and never once considered a referendum nor even answered, to my memory, why he wouldn't hold one.

That was just one of the many lies McGuinty spewed during that election, and I don't think he has a hope in hell of getting in again. Thus his attacks on the feds is a desperation effort to show he's more than a weaselly little two-faced liar who has, moreover, completely failed at the issues he said he would take care of; health and education.

[caesar]

The other thing to keep in mind is that a provincial party's success/failure doesn't always correspond into success/ failure for it's federal counterpart.

It's all in the timing and the spin.

That's really the gist of it. Voters do not always vote for the same party provincially and federally. Certainly here in BC the Liberals are a completely different party policy wise than the federal Liberals. Most Canadians do not have the blind party loyalty as they do in the USA where families vote for the same party all the time. There is just a small minority that are the undecided voters. It takes a big issue to make these voters change their minds. In Canada (at least in BC) we change party loyalty at the drop of a hat. We either vote for a charismatic leader or tend to just vote out the previous administration that has irritated the majority of us.

[Grantler]

Maybe it is just a problem in Canada that we really do not have a defined political culture...more often then not undecided people vote to punish than vote to support.

They do not know what they want at all...just what they don't want.

[Guest eureka]

Good to see you back, Argus! Let the fun begin.