Latest Federal Opinion Poll

[mirror]

Bob Rae, second choice to replace Mr Dithers.

[shoop]

Interesting though. I guess most Canadians are quite content with New Democrat Party leader Jack Layton. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Most Canadians have never voted New Democrat federally and never would.

The federal ND caucus is such a bunch of no names that the Canadian public couldn't possibly think of anyone to select as a possible replacement for Whacko Jacko, or care for that matter.

The purpose of this poll was to get people thinking about future Prime Ministers...

Maybe Svend could run. Could a Prime Minister get into the U.S. with a criminal record?

[Argus]

Of course PM Martin is an anglo. Just like Chretien used to ham it up that his English wasn't good, Martin likes to ham it up that he is a franco. Both for political reasons of course.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Paul Martin's father was a Francophone and his mother an Anglophone. He went to French schools while growing up. Anglophones pronounce his name "Pol Martin" but Francophones pronounce it "Pal Marrtan". He is both English and French, so there is no reason why whoever follows him has to be French.

A businessman and politician, Paul Martin is from a prominent Canadian political family. His father, Paul Joseph James Martin, served 33 years as a member of the Canadian House of Commons and was a cabinet minister in four Liberal governments. Martin Jr. had a bicultural upbringing. His father was a Franco-Ontarian, and his mother, Eleanor "Nell" Adams, was a Scottish Canadian. He was raised in an English-speaking environment in Windsor and Ottawa. To give him the opportunity to improve his French, his parents enrolled him in a private French-language middle school, Ecole Garneau in Ottawa. He then attended the French-Catholic University of Ottawa secondary school.

[mirror]

I think it is the same situation as it was for Trudeau only in reverse.

Trudeau came from a mixed parents as well, but he was never considered English just like Martin is not considered French, by the vast majority of Canadians.

[mirror]

Here is the latest CROP/La Presse National Opinion Poll for Quebec released today:

B - 45%

L - 29%

C - 13%

N - 11%

It is starting to get crowded in Quebec.

I wonder what the previous results were for all the parties.

Does this give the Liberals a majority government now?

[shoop]

Here is the latest CROP/La Presse National Opinion Poll for Quebec released today:

B - 45%

L - 29%

C - 13%

N - 11%

It is starting to get crowded in Quebec.

I wonder what the previous results were for all the parties.

Does this give the Liberals a majority government now?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How do the Liberals falling from 34% in the 2004 election in Quebec to 29% in this poll move them UP into majority government territory?

Hmm, the Conservatives are up four points in Quebec from their result in the 2004 election. If that trend holds nationally their "freefall" will put Harper into the PMO.

13% for the CPC is a good thing. About what they did pre-Mulroney (1979 and 1980) got them one and two seats respectively in those elections.

[mirror]

Simple actually.

Democratic space forecast prior to yesterday's CROP poll:

Lib -150 seats

Con - 71 seats

Bloc - 60 seats

NDP - 27 seats

Total - 308 seats

Required for majority: 155 seats

In Quebec the Liberals are up 6% in Quebec and they always have a hidden vote in Quebec of about 5%. The Conservative support in Quebec will fade away come election time.

[shoop]

Yawn,

You have posted three prediction sites, yet democratic space is the one you constantly refer to because it advances your preconceived notion of the world.

Very convenient, yet tiring.

Let me know if you want to actually discuss possible scenarios instead of attacking the CPC without support.

[mirror]

No democratic space is the only scientifically based one that I am aware of. That the Conservative support is in the crapper is not me manipulating anything. I am no Liberal supporter.

[shoop]

Never said you were a Liberal supporter.

However, your posts constantly portay a bias against the CPC. Why is their support in the crapper? Because you say it is? Yet the CROP poll you quote says they are up four points in Quebec, which gives them a realistic chance to win a seat or two in the province.

August 1991 said it best about DS. Very precise and utterly useless.

One brief example of how useless DS is. They are currently predicting two Liberal seats in Alberta. Kimmy said it, Edmonton - Beaumont has always been a David Kilgour riding. Kilgour left the caucus yet DS is still predicting it as a Liberal win. wtf?

[Cartman]

Well, I am no Liberal but I think the only thing the next election will decide is whether they receive another minority or a majority. My guess is that they get a slightly larger minority...unfortunately.

[mirror]

shoop

You and August are diehard Conservative supporters. Nobody would expect you to say anything different. That your comments on the polls, when the Conservatives are dropping like a stone, have any substance, is another issue altogether.

[shoop]

shoop

You and August are diehard Conservative supporters. Nobody would expect you to say anything different. That your comments on the polls, when the Conservatives are dropping like a stone, have any substance, is another issue altogether.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What I am saying is show me how their support is "dropping like a stone". The last poll you quote, the CROP poll, shows them gaining in Quebec. They are up four points there.

Yes, I support the CPC but if they really were "dropping like a stone" we wouldn`t see the polls jumping back and forth like they have been.

Using terms such as "dropping like a stone" and "freefall" doesn`t accurately portray where the CPC is at here and now.

Why do you completely ignore evidence to the contrary when you introduce it to the discussion?

[mirror]

Don't shoot the messanger.

You Conservatives can whine and moan all you want, it isn't going to change how Canadians fell about their various political parties. The bottom has fallen out of Harper's strategy.

Here are some additional seat projections from the election forecaster which are additional scientifically based projections:

06/27/05

L - 137

C - 76

66

28

1

06/23/05

L - 139

C- 67

66

35

1

06/20/05

L - 138

C - 82

67

20

1

06/11/05

L - 113

C - 91

67

36

1

06/08/05

L - 150

C - 48

67

40

1

05/28/05

L - 125

C - 75

68

40

0

05/26/05

L - 165

C - 55

67

21

0

05/20/05

L - 131

C - 88

67

21

1

It is not like the Conservative collapse happened overnite, as it has been going on for some time now.

[shoop]

Not shooting the messenger. If your posts were truly supported it would be fine and supporters of the CPC would be a lot more concerned than we are at the moment. Greg wants this site to be about debate that's fine, let's actually debate then.

Please enough with the personal attacks, i.e. whining and moaning. Greg stops some of us from doing, it but just because he gives you free rein doesn't mean you have to resort to that level at every opportunity.

There are a multitude of forecasting sites out there. If you are going to fish for a new one everytime you are looking to support your view that is fine, just post a link.

When you do post something please be willing to defend it. Simply ignoring it is childish, as are many of your posts. This site is meant to stimulate debate. As I have said earlier I would be more than willing to get into a knock-down drag out name calling session with you but Greg won`t allow people to defend themselves against your attacks.

In that vein, could you answer a couple questions?

Why does a CROP poll that shows the Conservatives up four points in Quebec from the 2004 election serve as evidence of the CPCs freefall?

Where are you getting this concept of a hidden five percent level of support for the Liberals in Quebec? Maybe you could show some pre-election polls that correspond to a five percent jump in Liberal support on election day.

[mirror]

Not shooting the messenger. If your posts were truly supported it would be fine and supporters of the CPC would be a lot more concerned than we are at the moment. Greg wants this site to be about debate that's fine, let's actually debate then.

Please enough with the personal attacks, i.e. whining and moaning. Greg stops some of us from doing, it but just because he gives you free rein doesn't mean you have to resort to that level at every opportunity.

There are a multitude of forecasting sites out there. If you are going to fish for a new one everytime you are looking to support your view that is fine, just post a link.

When you do post something please be willing to defend it. Simply ignoring it is childish, as are many of your posts. This site is meant to stimulate debate. As I have said earlier I would be more than willing to get into a knock-down drag out name calling session with you but Greg won`t allow people to defend themselves against your attacks.

In that vein, could you answer a couple questions?

Why does a CROP poll that shows the Conservatives up four points in Quebec from the 2004 election serve as evidence of the CPCs freefall?

Where are you getting this concept of a hidden five percent level of support for the Liberals in Quebec? Maybe you could show some pre-election polls that correspond to a five percent jump in Liberal support on election day.

Shoop

All you have done since you arrived here is whine and complain about other posters doing this and doing that. If you have any problems with another poster contact the moderator.

[shoop]

Shoop

All you have done since you arrived here is whine and complain about other posters doing this and doing that. If you have any problems with another poster contact the moderator.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Done it repeatedly. He never replies. Please don`t attack me personally and don`t f**king tell me what to do. Oh yeah, never whined or complained about any other poster, just you f*cknuts.

How about answering the questions I posed earlier or are you too stupid and simplistic to do that? Because the party you support is full of a bunch of morons who lack the ability to tie their own shoelaces.

You resort to insults and putdowns when the utter idiocy of your statments is called to question.

Thankfully your mindless little jabs are so meaningless as to have no basis in reality. The CPC is "plummeting" in the wet dreams of mirror. Woo hoo. Thankfully your moronic reading of the polls affects the voting intentions of no one.

While the likes of you whine about Wal-mart coming into Canada you secretly shop there because it is the only store offering track pants large enough to fit your rotund arse at a price you can afford on your minimum wage video store job.

To quote William Shatner "Have you ever kissed a girl?" "Why don`t you move out of your parent`s basement and get a life?"

Sorry about the rant, but I`ll sleep better today knowing you will be crying yourself to sleep as the truth of my post hits much closer to home than you would ever admit publicly.

[mirror]

Done it repeatedly. He never replies. Please don`t attack me personally and don`t f**king tell me what to do. Oh yeah, never whined or complained about any other poster, just you f*cknuts.

How about answering the questions I posed earlier or are you too stupid and simplistic to do that? Because the party you support is full of a bunch of morons who lack the ability to tie their own shoelaces.

You resort to insults and putdowns when the utter idiocy of your statments is called to question.

Thankfully your mindless little jabs are so meaningless as to have no basis in reality. The CPC is "plummeting" in the wet dreams of mirror. Woo hoo. Thankfully your moronic reading of the polls affects the voting intentions of no one.

While the likes of you whine about Wal-mart coming into Canada you secretly shop there because it is the only store offering track pants large enough to fit your rotund arse at a price you can afford on your minimum wage video store job.

To quote William Shatner "Have you ever kissed a girl?" "Why don`t you move out of your parent`s basement and get a life?"

Sorry about the rant, but I`ll sleep better today knowing you will be crying yourself to sleep as the truth of my post hits much closer to home than you would ever admit publicly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for sharing.

Happy Labour Day to you too!

[shoop]

Just for the record!

Happy Labour Day to you too!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You too. I should apologize. Mark's Work Wearhouse probably has track pants that will fit you so don`t get too down on yourself.

[mirror]

You too. I should apologize. Mark's Work Wearhouse probably has track pants that will fit you so don`t get too down on yourself.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Impressive.

A real class act!

[shoop]

Impressive.

A real class act!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you are going to ignore debate and resort to personal attacks why shouldn't others?

Don't know how you call yourself a class act wearing track pants all the time though...

[August1991]

Lib 36

CPC 29

NDP 17

The new numbers support a trend reported in private Conservative polls and offer the party qualified hope for an election campaign that is either weeks or months away.

--

The numbers offer some relief for Stephen Harper. The Conservative leader came under attack recently from a small group of party members who demanded his resignation because they said he couldn't win.

--

The Tories trailed the Liberals by seven points nationally (36 per cent to 29) and by 10 points in Ontario (43 per cent to 33) in a three-week survey that ended Sept. 26. The NDP was at 17 per cent nationally.

Decima's results are based on rolling three-week averages. The latest portion, which was conducted Sept. 22 to 26, questioned 1,015 adult Canadians and is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Decima

[Canuck E Stan]

Anderson cited several factors for the shift in public opinion -- and he says all of them occurred this spring.

I'm surprised that the polls were so close considering the factors motivating the results were 4-5 months old.I wonder how the Dingwall/$1.29 Gum expense will play with polls.

Considering Jack saved the Liberals from falling,the NDP results seem to show Canadians really didn't think enough of of Jack's gesture to improve his standings..

[shoop]

That's a good poll August.

The Liberals gotta be nervous about that one.

It is basically the same results the parties posted in the last election, with some minor but very important differeneces.

In Ontario the CPC is 2 1/2 points higher than it was last June. The Liberals are 2.7 points lower and the NDs are about 2 points higher. With as many tight races as there were in 2004. This could mean a net loss of 15-20 Liberal seats in Ontario with the CPC picking up a few more than the NDs.

In Quebec the Bloc is slightly ahead of where they were in 2004, a seat count in the high 50s is entirely reasonable at this point.

The Liberals really don't want an election now. If one comes about and Gomery hits in the middle of it we are definitely looking at a CPC minority. Who knows it might actually be a good thing for the country.

If anyone is interested, the Decima release can be found at their site www.decima.com

[Riverwind]

The Liberals really don't want an election now. If one comes about and Gomery hits in the middle of it we are definitely looking at a CPC minority. Who knows it might actually be a good thing for the country.

The trouble with national poll results is they all have a huge margin of error because of uneven geographic distribution of party support. I am sure the polls that showed the Liberals with 40% support in BC mainly polled people in the urban Vancouver. Similarly, polls that show the CPC in a more competitive position probably called people a few miles away in the more suburban Fraser Valley.

My feeling is an election will be decided by the campaign. The last campaign consisted of a never ending whine from the CPC about Liberal 'corruption'. If the CPC tries that strategy again they will most likely lose because many people do not believe the the Conservatives will be any different if they are in power. As a result, any campaign based on the idea the CPC is 'cleaner' than the Liberals just makes the CPC sound like a bunch of opportunistic hypocrites.

On the other hand, if Harper plays nice in the fall an focuses on getting some of his platform passed by the Liberal minority gov't before a election in the Spring 2006 then I think the CPC has a chance of getting a minority or even a majority because a lot of people are looking for someone who can offer a positive vision for change.

The current tendency among conservative supporters to insult and belittle people who are ideologically inclined to vote Liberal will ensure that those voters keep voting Liberal. I really hope that the CPC figures this reality out soon.