Latest Federal Opinion Poll

[Guest eureka]

Numbers voting for each party. They stand to pick up a number of the close ridings lost last time if the poll is correct. Not offset by Quebec where the voting is a local preference and the Liberal ridings will mostly still be Liberal. The reductions likely come in ridings that are already held by the Bloc.

[August1991]

CPC 30

Lib 33

NDP 20

BQ 14

Size 1028

3-7 Nov 2005

The Decima Research survey provided exclusively to The Canadian Press shows the Conservatives at 30 per cent of national support versus 33 per cent for the Liberals.

That compares to 20 per cent for the New Democrats and 14 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.

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In vote-laden Ontario, where successive federal elections have been won or lost, the Liberal lead jumps to 40 per cent compared to 32 per cent for the Tories.

"The votes the Conservatives need to access more than in the past are among women and in urban areas," Anderson said.

In Quebec, the Liberals are trailing badly at 26 per cent of support compared to 55 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois. Conservatives and New Democrats barely register in the province with eight per cent each.

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The Decima telephone poll of 1,028 Canadians was taken from Nov. 3 to 7, just after the release of Justice John Gomery's first report into the sponsorship scandal.

National Post

Federal Liberals lose ground in the Greater Toronto Area

TORONTO: As Canadians prepare for a possible Christmas election, support for the federal Liberal Party in their Greater Toronto Area stronghold has declined sharply. After having rebounded over the summer, Liberal support is now back to where it was in the wake of the most damaging testimony to the Gomery commission last April, according to a new survey by Environics Research Group conducted between November 1 and 8, 2005.

The survey of 943 residents conducted immediately after the release of the first report of the Gomery Commission shows that across the Greater Toronto Area, 42 percent of eligible and decided voters would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today. This represents a 9-point drop from the 51 percent of the vote that the Liberals won in the GTA in the June 2004 election, when they virtually swept the region. Both opposition parties have gained ground. The Conservative Party now has the support of 33 percent of GTA voters (up five points since the election); while the New Democratic Party now has the support of 21 percent (up six points since the election). One in ten (11%) GTA voters are undecided about which party might deserve their support.

Environics

[August1991]

Lib 33

CPC 28

NDP 21

1275

7-9 Nov Ekos

That's a good five-plus percentage points above their 2004 election results, with the NDP neck-and-neck with the Liberals for support in B.C., and well above the Liberals in the Prairies. Moreover, 13 per cent of former Liberal voters and 5 per cent of former Tory voters say they've moved to the NDP.

....

Ontario still seems to be sticking with the Liberals, though more shakily, with 42 per cent support for the governing party, compared to 44.7 per cent in the 2004 election.

The Conservatives have 30 per cent support, compared to 31.5 in the election, and the NDP are at 23 per cent, up from 18 per cent in 2004.

The poll found Quebec to be a "wasteland" for Liberals, according to EKOS president Frank Graves, with the Bloc still hovering at 53 per cent support compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals. The Bloc garnered 49 per cent support in the 2004 vote.

Toronto Star

[shoop]

How can the ND numbers swing so wildly between two polls conducted at the same time? Seven points is a big difference.

Basically it looks as if the Conservatives are where they were in 2004, the Liberals are down three to five points and the NDs are up one to seven depending on which poll you believe.

Given the resurgence of the Bloc these numbers translate to a Conservative minority if they hold....

[August1991]

As Canadians prepare for a possible Christmas election, support for the federal Liberal Party in their Greater Toronto Area stronghold has declined sharply.

....

The survey of 943 residents conducted immediately after the release of the first report of the Gomery Commission shows that across the Greater Toronto Area, 42 percent of eligible and decided voters would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today. This represents a 9-point drop from the 51 percent of the vote that the Liberals won in the GTA in the June 2004 election, when they virtually swept the region. Both opposition parties have gained ground. The Conservative Party now has the support of 33 percent of GTA voters (up five points since the election); while the New Democratic Party now has the support of 21 percent (up six points since the election). One in ten (11%) GTA voters are undecided about which party might deserve their support.

There was no evidence of Liberal rebound over the course of the survey dates.

...

Of a total of 44 seats in the region, the Liberals won 37, the Conservatives won six and the New Democrats won only one seat – that of their leader Jack Layton.

Environics

This may well be motivating the Liberals right now. The poll was taken between 1-8 November. The NDP may pick up seats in Toronto and the Tories in the suburbs of Toronto.

[August1991]

Lib 36

CPC 28

NDP 20

Size 1560

7-13 Nov, Pollara

Quebec

BQ 64

Lib 23

The Liberals' eight-point lead in the new Pollara survey is one point higher than in a late-October poll by the firm. That showed the Liberals at 37 percent, with the Conservatives at 30 percent and the New Democrats at 18.

But the gap is now tighter than margins of up to 12 points that the Liberals enjoyed in July, August and September, and that appeared to be one reason the Conservatives have been pressing to bring down Martin's government this month and force an election.

Reuters

I think this overstates the BQ support in Quebec. No other provincial results are given.

[shoop]

Hmmm, given that the CPC gained 5 points throughout the last election, while the Liberals only lost 1 this poll is good news for the Conservatives.

If the CPC can hit 33 percent on election day and they Liberals are held to 35 then we are definitely looking at PM Harper. Even better is bye bye PM PM.

Those Québec numbers look like the BQ will hit 60 seats, holding the Liberals down to 15.

Lib 36

CPC 28

NDP 20

Size 1560

7-13 Nov, Pollara 

Quebec

BQ 64

Lib 23

The Liberals' eight-point lead in the new Pollara survey is one point higher than in a late-October poll by the firm. That showed the Liberals at 37 percent, with the Conservatives at 30 percent and the New Democrats at 18.

But the gap is now tighter than margins of up to 12 points that the Liberals enjoyed in July, August and September, and that appeared to be one reason the Conservatives have been pressing to bring down Martin's government this month and force an election.

Reuters

I think this overstates the BQ support in Quebec. No other provincial results are given.

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[August1991]

Those Québec numbers look like the BQ will hit 60 seats, holding the Liberals down to 15.

The last time I checked, I reckoned the Liberals would get at most 14 seats in Quebec but more likely 10. (I think Denis Coderre and Jean Lapierre will lose.) In 2004, the Libs won 20 seats in Quebec.