Trudeau's pie in the sky environmental policies

[Argus]

I've never been a fan of stupid policy, especially stupid policy that is hideously expensive. I've watched Ontario's incompetent Liberals run its electricity system into the ground over the past ten years and give us the world's most expensive electrical power. Now Trudeau, with the help of some of the same zealous environmental loonies who pushed the Ontario Liberals to green up its energy without regard to costs, seems to be enthusiastically headed down the same path.

Carbon taxes on everything that moves, banning coal, new regulations on gas power generation, and you can bet that 'infrastructure' bank will be looking to fund as many green energy systems as they can find. 

Yesterday, Trudeau's environment minister announced the end of coal fired power plants by 2030. The government will ban them, apparently because of... well, no reason. They're not cool. Green is cool. Coal is gross. No more of that gross stuff. So what if it costs billions! It's only taxpayer money! And it's not like any of these people are going to struggle to pay their electric bills.

Meanwhile, most of the rest of the world is enthusiastically building coal fired power plants. China alone will increase its coal generating capacity in the next four years by the equivalent of ten times all of Canada's present capacity. India is doing much the same. Coal generating plants are being built throughout Asia. The Paris accord might have been signed by 195 countries, but only a handful have pledged to actually decrease their emissions, mostly Europe and a few others. The US signed but is clearly never going to implement it, with Trump promising to sweep away anti-coal regulations.

But don't let facts ever stand in the way of liberal ideological zeal. So what if it costs a trillion dollars! Liberals will get to strut proudly around on the world stage so everyone can recognize how special they are. 

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/terence-corcoran-coal-phase-out-another-sign-of-liberals-climate-policy-muddle

[?Impact]

2 hours ago, Argus said:

Meanwhile, most of the rest of the world is enthusiastically building coal fired power plants. China alone will increase its coal generating capacity in the next four years by the equivalent of ten times all of Canada's present capacity.

 

China invested $103 billion in green energy (mostly solar and wind) last year, that is not only way more than Canada, it is way more than the US, UK, Brazil, and Japan put together. In 2013 their wind & solar generation was equivalent to 25% of all of Canada's power generation from all sources, and I wouldn't be surprised if this year it would be 50% or more. Yes China is highly dependent on coal, currently about 72% of their power comes from coal but that is 10% less than it was a decade ago (81% in 2007).

I don't know what you are trying to imply by your wording above. China's total power generation from all sources is about 6.5 times that of Canada. If you mean their total (installed & new) coal generating capacity will be about 10 times that of Canada's total in 4 years then that might be right, or if you mean their total new coal capacity will be 10 times Canada's coal capacity then that might be right. The way your statement reads however is very misleading.

 

b.t.w. China's $103 billion investment in Solar & Wind is over 10 times total investment in all forms from Canada ($8.8 billion). 

Edited November 22, 2016 by ?Impact

[poochy]

Your last sentence sums it up, they are ideologues, no government with Gerald Butts as second in command could be anything else, they simply do not care about the consequences, that is secondary to their beliefs.  

Nova Scotia, who has signed on to this in some way, has at least one bio mass plant that i know of, and there simply isn't enough biomass for them to burn, so, they are clear cutting forests instead, because it's 'green' you see.

https://nsadvocate.org/2016/03/12/weekend-video-its-too-big-the-biomass-plantat-port-hastings/

[overthere]

The federal carbon tax -and its timing- is the clearest signal yet that Trudeau intends to shut down the energy business in Canada. It reduces the competetiiveness of Canada vs a new strong competitor(the USA) in this sector, which surely is not an unintended consequence.   His pronouncement that Keystone is somehow not needed-immediately after it abruptly came back on the table because Trump -is another.   We can expect that the previously NEB approved (in 2010)Keystone XL project in Canada is now going to be due for several years of more review, at a minimum.

 

Trudeau approved one of the numerous applications for LNG projects, but it took so long that the people who pay for it have almost certainly given up.  Delays and a couple hundred condtions of the approval help make up minds.  Gateway, Energy East and Kinder Morgan will all be delayed, or so heavily layered with conditions, long enough that everybody loses interest- which will allow Trudeau to toss up his hands and say 'not my fault'.  After all, let's not forget that he sees himself as a 'referee' on this vital part of our economy.  As we all know, referees have no interest in the outcome....which is a truly astonishing statement from the person most responsible for our economy. 

[Argus]

1 hour ago, ?Impact said:

 

China invested $103 billion in green energy

I am happy you've found a country to wholeheartedly approve of, at last, though I question why China would be it.

I don't care how much China says it is putting into green energy. They are also putting billions into coal energy, and those billions will continue to increase their CO2 emissions for decades to come. Likewise India, likewise Indonesia, likewise Malaysia, likewise Thailand and so many others. The US will also be increasing its CO2 emissions since Trump doesn't believe in global warming.

What exactly do you guys expect to accomplish bailing out the boat with your little sippy cup while the rest of the world is pouring more in with a firehose? It is time to admit that the whole idea is a ludicrous waste of money and focus our efforts on something else, like new technology grants and money to research what needs to be done to ameliorate the affects of warmer weather.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Argus

[?Impact]

4 minutes ago, Argus said:

It is time to admit that the whole idea is a ludicrous waste of money and focus our efforts on something else, like new technology grants and money to research what needs to be done to ameliorate the affects of warmer weather.

Let's build huge refrigerators to cool down the planet, and pumps to lower the oceans. I hear we can get cheap parts from China.

 

b.t.w., in both 2014 and 2015, coal plants in China were running at lower capacity than in previous years because new solar, wind, and nuclear were more than enough to address the growth in demand. in 2014 more than 80% of that growth was in renewables, and in 2015 some large nuclear came on stream and renewables were only about 60% of the growth. So yes, China is building coal plants to ensure they have the capacity to accommodate surges in growth but continue to invest in renewables. They are projecting around 80-90TWh of annual renewable growth over the next several years, that is equivalent to about 12% of Canada's total consumption from all sources.

[msj]

Yes, I know some people don't like facts so I won't bother. 

But one of my staff just got back from China and, with the smog indicator showing >500 (when 300 is considered hazardous to ones health) it is no wonder something like 7 million people die from pollution. China will have no choice but to switch to cleaner than coal for energy. 

Renewables are growing at a compounded rate of return each year which means what looks small now is gonna look yuge in the future. 

I can't wait for the decline and fall of the fossil fuel era. I think we are at the beginning of the end but the end is going to have a very very long tail. 

And, with people, conservatives in particular, not liking change we can expect the usual complaints from the energy Luddites. 

Edited November 22, 2016 by msj

[Argus]

1 hour ago, ?Impact said:

b.t.w., in both 2014 and 2015, coal plants in China were running at lower capacity than in previous years because new solar, wind, and nuclear were more than enough to address the growth in demand

No, because their economy slowed down. When it picked up again they will burn more coal. They are not commited to doing anything to lower their CO2 emissions, or even reign them in for at least 30 years.

[Argus]

53 minutes ago, msj said:

Yes, I know some people don't like facts so I won't bother. 

Let's be honest here. Facts are not something you concern yourself with. This is a religion to you. You don't care about facts.

The facts are that it will cost us hundreds of billions of dollars and damage our economy to accomplish NOTHING.

Or perhaps you'd like to tell us by what percentage Canada's strenuous efforts, if successful,  will lower world CO2 emissions?

A nice, round figure, please.

 

[msj]

I'm not the one coming here starting OP's with few to no facts in them.  

When you do choose to post some facts then maybe I'll come back because there may be something worth discussing. 

[Argus]

9 minutes ago, msj said:

I'm not the one coming here starting OP's with few to no facts in them.  

When you do choose to post some facts then maybe I'll come back because there may be something worth discussing. 

I posted facts. You simply don't like them, much like other very religious people who disdain facts in favour of faith.

[?Impact]

1 hour ago, Argus said:

I posted facts. You simply don't like them, much like other very religious people who disdain facts in favour of faith.

Facts are generally able to be backed up with evidence. What evidence do you have for this statement: I've watched Ontario's incompetent Liberals run its electricity system into the ground over the past ten years and give us the world's most expensive electrical power.

If you use Hydro Quebec's most recent comparison of electricity prices in major North American cities, you will find 2 Ontario cities (Ottawa & Toronto). It lists Charlottetown & Halifax as more expensive than Ottawa, and both of those and Regina as more expensive than Toronto. From American cities listed, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, New York, and Boston are all higher than Ottawa, and all of those plus Nashville are higher than Toronto. If you go around the world you will find that Canadian and American prices are at the low end. China and India are a bit lower than the Canadian average, but not as low as Quebec, Manitoba, and BC. Major European countries are anywhere from 2-3 times that of Canada, with Denmark being almost 4 times. 

 

[msj]

3 hours ago, Argus said:

Let's be honest here. Facts are not something you concern yourself with. This is a religion to you. You don't care about facts.

 

I have made some claims for which I can easily support as fact: 

7 Million deaths from pollution: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/

Beijing's smog being hazardous at levels of 500: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/12/07/beijing-issues-first-ever-red-alert-for-hazardous-smog/

You don't need to believe me if my staff member was there or not - but given how sick she is right now I think it is related to the pollution moreso than anything else. 

China's increase of solar power: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601093/china-is-on-an-epic-solar-power-binge/

China's increase of wind power: https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=growth+in+wind+power+in+china (pick some links) 

As to my claim of compounding and its impact on renewables and fossil fuels - understand the rule of 72: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/040104.asp

It's like a snowball which starts at the top of a hill and gets bigger and bigger as it goes down the mountain.  

That is where renewables are without wonderful storage. 

Between price declines for capacity, use of technology/software and improvements in storage, renewables are going to eat fossil fuels lunch pretty soon.  

In fact, they already are in sunny locations: http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/climate/solar-energy-cheap/    and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-solar-are-crushing-fossil-fuels

So, when you get to be as "progessive" as me and can back up your statements with some real live believable links then lets have a discussion.

Until then may you go forth and fossilize.... 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by msj

[Argus]

9 minutes ago, msj said:

I have made some claims for which I can easily support as fact:

All of which are completely irrelevant.

Whether CO2 is causing warming or not is irrelevant. The world is NOT going to reduce CO2 emissions through anything governments do, nor even substantially reduce the growth of CO2 emissions. That is absolutely clear. Anyone who still thinks otherwise is probably of the same mentality that thinks if we just don't tell teenagers about sex they won't have any. How many decades do you have to smash your face into a brick wall before you meet Mr. Obvious? CO2 reduction is a massive,multi-trillion dollar failure. The money the west has spent on this utterly futile effort could, by now, mostly have covered the cost of most of the issues which are going to come up with a warming planet.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by Argus

[Argus]

1 hour ago, ?Impact said:

Facts are generally able to be backed up with evidence. What evidence do you have for this statement: I've watched Ontario's incompetent Liberals run its electricity system into the ground over the past ten years and give us the world's most expensive electrical power.

If you use Hydro Quebec's most recent comparison of electricity prices in major North American cities, you will find 2 Ontario cities (Ottawa & Toronto). It lists Charlottetown & Halifax as more expensive than Ottawa, and both of those and Regina as more expensive than Toronto. From American cities listed, San Francisco, Detroit, Chicago, New York, and Boston are all higher than Ottawa, and all of those plus Nashville are higher than Toronto. If you go around the world you will find that Canadian and American prices are at the low end. China and India are a bit lower than the Canadian average, but not as low as Quebec, Manitoba, and BC. Major European countries are anywhere from 2-3 times that of Canada, with Denmark being almost 4 times.

Seriously? You're comparing after tax costs? Two thirds of the cost of electricity in Denmark is for taxes and fees, and that doesn't even include the transportation charge. And the high prices of electricity in Europe are attributable to what? Come on, you know. Green energy! As well as more taxes. In Germany, a third of the price is for financing green energy and a quarter of the price is for taxes. This is what you are looking to have imposed on Canada, right?

As for Nashville, the rate is 11.8c per kwh. In Boston it's 14ckwh, in New York, 19ckwh, in Detroit, 16.9ckwh, in Chicago about 6c kwh  Ontario is 18c per kwh but also has numerous fees and charges leveed on top of that, and now we're going to have a new carbon tax imposed which will raise it still higher.

 

[?Impact]

58 minutes ago, Argus said:

Seriously?

Ontario is 18c per kwh

You are taking the peak charge that is applicable for only 6 hours/day, and totally ignoring the off-peak charge (8.7c) which is applicable for 12 hours/day, and all weekends and statutory holidays. When you base a rate on 17% of the time and ignore 65% of the time, you are obviously extremely biased. 

Seriously is right, do a proper comparison. At least Hydro Quebec attempted to do an apples for apples comparison. It may not be perfect, but it is far better than what you are quoting.

Edited November 23, 2016 by ?Impact

[TimG]

43 minutes ago, ?Impact said:

You are taking the peak charge that is applicable for only 6 hours/day, and totally ignoring the off-peak charge (8.7c) which is applicable for 12 hours/day, and all weekends and statutory holidays. When you base a rate on 17% of the time and ignore 65% of the time, you are obviously extremely biased. 

Seriously is right, do a proper comparison. At least Hydro Quebec attempted to do an apples for apples comparison. It may not be perfect, but it is far better than what you are quoting.

Take your own advice. The Quebec Hydro analysis did not include all of the fees that are tacked onto bills.

What other place in north america has stories like this:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2796958/rural-ontarians-left-in-the-dark-as-electricity-bills-skyrocket/

Quote

 

Jennifer Shaver is in a similar situation to Knox. She lives in Oxford Station, just outside of Ottawa, and she is on a constant crusade to cut her power consumption.

She shuts off her water heater during the day, hangs out all her laundry and her air conditioner is never turned on. The dishwasher only runs at night.

Despite her strict conservation measures, her monthly bills have been creeping up to more than $300 a month.

 

$300/month for someone bending over backwards to save electricity is absurd.
We are talking about an effective rate of 35-45 cents/kWH.

[?Impact]

1 hour ago, TimG said:

What other place in north america has stories like this:

Try the deregulation capital of the world - Texas

 

b.t.w. The woman in the story you cite is using over 8 times the electricity that I use. Does she have electric heat?

Edited November 23, 2016 by ?Impact

[SpankyMcFarland]

So just move to higher ground, folks (sorry, Florida). Nothing can be done.  

[msj]

15 hours ago, Argus said:

All of which are completely irrelevant.

Whether CO2 is causing warming or not is irrelevant. The world is NOT going to reduce CO2 emissions through anything governments do, nor even substantially reduce the growth of CO2 emissions. That is absolutely clear. Anyone who still thinks otherwise is probably of the same mentality that thinks if we just don't tell teenagers about sex they won't have any.

 

Yet, 2013 CO2 emissions were substantially the same as 2014 with 3% economic growth. http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomzeller/2015/03/13/in-historic-turn-co2-emissions-flatline-in-2014-evan-as-global-economy-grows/#314b41851d2a

Perhaps this is just technology. Perhaps it is just government forcing action. Maybe it is just people coming to their senses and choosing cleaner solution. 

And talking about irrelevant: who said anything about teenagers and sex? 

Once again, put up (the evidence) or shut up (go on and remain on ignore with the other  ....). 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by msj

[Argus]

20 minutes ago, msj said:

Once again, put up (the evidence) or shut up (go on and remain on ignore with the other  ....). 

Still waiting to hear about what percentage of world emissions Canada's trillion dollar efforts will affect. You want us to spend a trillion bucks on educing our emissions but you can't say what, if any affect it will have on world CO2 levels! I'm guessing you don't pay taxes of any kind.

[msj]

Canada's emissions will not matter, true. 

However, I wonder who will lead in renewable technology in the future? 

Germany, US, China, anyone else? 

Canada, well, we will be really good at getting oil out of the ground in a world where oil will be in decline.

Sort of like Wales was good at producing coal in 1953. 

Brilliant economic strategy! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Wales

[TimG]

2 hours ago, msj said:

However, I wonder who will lead in renewable technology in the future? 

No one can compete with the subsidies the Chinese throw at industries like solar and EVs. No matter what we do there is no chance that Canada will be a player in such tech. We may have a few startups that get bought out by multinationals but these startups would exist whether Canada has a punitive CO2 policy or not. 

Oil is also not going anywhere fast. Lots of tech was promised in the 'near future' but could never make that leap from prototype to reliable and cost effective consumer goods. I think EVs will not live up to the hype. The bigger problem for Canadian oil producers is the world keeps finding more supplies which will keep the price low indefinitely and the brain dead minority in Canada who deludes themselves into believing they can kill the oil industry with red tape and not face any consequences in terms of cuts to social programs.

Edited November 23, 2016 by TimG

[msj]

No, the problem with Canada is that the sunny parts of the world that produce oil are building out solar at unsubsidized rates that are cheaper than natural gas. 

This will allow Saudi Arabia to export more oil (and probably, someday, electricity from renewables) which will have a further impact on the world price of O&G. 

Meanwhile, people in Canada are holding back development in these industries because they are too afraid of killing a cash cow that is on the brink of a long economic decline.

Conservatives hate change and it harms us all as the economy will suffer while the rest of the world leaps past us.  

Alberta is like Wales and oil is like coal. Yes, give it 30-40 years but it is already happening all because some people can't see the bigger picture.  

[TimG]

10 minutes ago, msj said:

Alberta is like Wales and oil is like coal. Yes, give it 30-40 years but it is already happening all because some people can't see the bigger picture.  

What you call the 'bigger picture' is really just wishful thinking. No one knows if the breakthroughs needed to make EVs viable for large scale deployment will appear in the next 10 or 20 or even 50 years. When they occur change will occur fast but it is also possible that the breakthroughs will never come. 

Same is true for renewables that can only be bit players until a cost effective means for large scale storage is found. No one knows when or even if that breakthough will occur. 

I am fine spending money on R&D to try and find those holy grails but that is not a justification for destroying the economy we do have based on the blind faith that something better will magically appear. I don't do blind faith - full speed ahead with the economy he have while investing in R&D. When/if solutions appear then shift gears - not before.

Edited November 23, 2016 by TimG