jbg Posted December 21, 2014 Report Share Posted December 21, 2014 I believe that the Russians are a very nationalistic culture with a long history of persevering under attack. It is a very proud nation which has been humiliated over the past few years. The sanctions from the West because of Russian activity in the Ukraine are seen by the populace as another attack on them - not Putin. The idea of a Russian Crimea and the activity Putin continues in that area is seen by most Russians as a positive move to allow Russians in Ukraine to stay Russian rather than being marginalized in a West dominated Ukraine. I believe Putin will withstand this attempt to weaken his leadership, continue to annex parts of Ukraine to build a land bridge to Crimea and will be needed by the West if we ever want to get disentangled from that fiasco in the Middle East. Russia's most grievous attacks have been from within. The country has suffered a grievous brain drain dating back to at least the early 1890's. This has happened because of the persecution of many groups, who voted with their feet. Those who left were on balance the people capable of accomplishment. THe people left behind, not as much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 With oil falling back to $55 time to pick this topic up again. Yeltsin more or less was forced to leave office in 1998 and yield to Putin in the wake of falling oil prices. Are we in for a repeat performance? I think this oil price drop, while not as dramatic as August to December 2008 is likely to be more durable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Guy Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 The economy of Russia sure appears to be taking a beating. I believe that at this time, Putin can do no wrong according to Russians. His actions in Crimea and Ukraine are very popular with the concept of re-uniting Russians who have been suppressed in Eastern Ukraine. In the past with Yeltsin, there was an organized opposition but I do not see any such movement in Russia at this time. I still feel that sanctions against Russia have not caused Russians to blame Putin but serve only to strengthen him by his defiance of the West. The worst result of these sanctions is that Russia is moving more towards the BRICS and strengthening that alliance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 the BRICS and strengthening that alliance.The "BRICS" is not an alliance. It is not really even a formal grouping. China is milking Russia for as much as it can since it knows the Russians are weak (i.e. it is signing long term energy supply deals which are very favorable to the Chinese). India is more aligned with the West than anyone else in the BRICS. And Brazil is dealing with its own issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 The "BRICS" is not an alliance. It is not really even a formal grouping. China is milking Russia for as much as it can since it knows the Russians are weak (i.e. it is signing long term energy supply deals which are very favorable to the Chinese). India is more aligned with the West than anyone else in the BRICS. And Brazil is dealing with its own issues.Thank you. I made a similar post a long time ago and didn't want to "spam." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Guy Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 Russia has a new Ambassador to Canada - Alexander Darchiev. In a recent interview on the CBC he stated bluntly, "Crimea is Russia - once and forever". I assume that is the Putin position. As to BRICS you may be correct - but - during the same interview, Alex, when goaded that Russia is becoming a pariah, stated the Russia still had plenty of friends, including China, Brazil and South America. That is still a lot of friends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 (edited) Russia has a new Ambassador to Canada - Alexander Darchiev. In a recent interview on the CBC he stated bluntly, "Crimea is Russia - once and forever". I assume that is the Putin position.If it were just Crimea, fine. As long as they don't stir the pot in every country with a Russian minority. I doubt Putin would make that pledge. Countries such as now-truncated Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could do much better rather than having to keep eyes in the back of their head peering at Russia as they look to the West. As to BRICS you may be correct - but - during the same interview, Alex, when goaded that Russia is becoming a pariah, stated the Russia still had plenty of friends, including China, Brazil and South America. That is still a lot of friends.I don't begrudge Russia friends; just let Russia leave other countries alone. Edited December 25, 2014 by jbg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Guy Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 I agree as to the Baltic States. In Crimea and Eastern Ukraine the majority language was Russian. During the latest Ukrainian election that area voted for a candidate that promised reforms towards addressing their alienation from Kiev and the non-Russian speaking North and West. Their candidate was run out of Kiev through a coup and the promised reforms never happened - they then looked to Russia for help. I believe the Crimea, with its Russian naval base was something Russia wanted to keep hold of but the rest of the Eastern Ukraine is not an asset. The Baltic States became members of NATO in 2004 and I do not think Russia is in a position to take on NATO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 The Baltic States became members of NATO in 2004 and I do not think Russia is in a position to take on NATO.NATO is a paper tiger. Do you really think they'd go to war over Lithuania? Or just issue heated verbal denunciations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 stated the Russia still had plenty of friends, including China, Brazil and South America. That is still a lot of friends.What do you mean friends? Allies? No. Countries that think they can gain a short term advantage by not joining the western sanctions? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted December 25, 2014 Report Share Posted December 25, 2014 NATO is a paper tiger. Do you really think they'd go to war over Lithuania? Or just issue heated verbal denunciations?If they did not the alliance would dissolve. There would be action - not WW3 action but significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 If they did not the alliance would dissolve. There would be action - not WW3 action but significant. With NATO the devil is in the details. There are some serious definitional problem as to what would force NATO to be invoked. Wouldn't you want the ability to escape an invocation of NATO if some tribal dispute blows up on the Turkish border with just about any of their bordering lands. For that matter if Ukraine had joined NATO do you really think the other NATO countries would have gone to war on the Crimea situation? Not a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Guy Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Becoming part of NATO is the decision of NATO not those who want in. There are a number of countries which NATO would not accept as a member for a number of different reasons. I do not think that NATO wants any part of the Kiev governed Ukraine. It would gain nothing but become hostage to the unstable Kiev government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 For that matter if Ukraine had joined NATO do you really think the other NATO countries would have gone to war on the Crimea situation? Not a chance.Ukraine would have never been accepted for exactly those reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted December 31, 2014 Report Share Posted December 31, 2014 So many unknowns. A military coup would have been impossible in the 'good old days' but Putin may have opened the door with his brand of amoral authoritarianism and the wee taste of prosperity that has trickled down to the lower orders. I'd say assassination would be the best first step for any plotters. He wouldn't be as slow to react as Gorby was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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