Conservatives back on top? Voters starting to pay attention.

[bleeding heart]

No, no...it doesn't apply when the polls read the "wrong" way.

I already spelled it out: if the Liberals (never mind the "commies" shudder) are doing well in the polls, it's because Canadians are not "paying attention."

It's when the Conservatives gain an uptick or two that is evidence of Canadians "paying attention."

What could be more clear than that?

[Keepitsimple]

Latest Forum Research results of polling done April 28th and 29th:

Liberals 39%, Conservatives 30%, NDP 20%

Source: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/02/conservative_attack_ads_against_trudeau_not_working_poll.html

To quote Keepitsimple: "...Canadians are starting to pay more attention to both Harper and Trudeau."

I admit that it's still possible that the original Globe and Mail survey (Angus Reid) ends up being an "outlier" - but the supporting G & M story made a big deal of the apparent turnaround - after a year of being down in previous surveys - that's why the Topic was posted. As for the Forum poll, I'm a little skeptical - because they've combined a clearly negative subject ("attack" ads) - with questions on what party they'd support. Without seeing the script, I'd say there is significant potential to "condition" the respondents to think negatively of the Conservatives - and support the Liberals. The article also omits what I think might be the most important fact:

Among respondents who previously voted Liberal, how many said the ads are likely to make them vote Conservative?

Among the survey respondents who’d previously voted Conservative, as many as one quarter (22 per cent) say the ads will likely make them vote Liberal.

Among respondents who previously voted NDP, about half (46 per cent) said the ads are likely to make them vote Liberal.

Edited May 3, 2014 by Keepitsimple

[cybercoma]

Using a probability sample of nearly 4000 Canadians surveyed between April 25 and May 1, the most recent EKOS poll has the following standings:

Liberals: 34.9%

Conservatives: 27.6%

New Democrats: 21.4%

Green Party: 8.2%

Margin of error is +/- 1.6%.

[Keepitsimple]

Using a probability sample of nearly 4000 Canadians surveyed between April 25 and May 1, the most recent EKOS poll has the following standings:

Liberals: 34.9%

Conservatives: 27.6%

New Democrats: 21.4%

Green Party: 8.2%

Margin of error is +/- 1.6%.

You forgot to include the link....

[cybercoma]

To add, the Conservatives support is strong in the prairies, where they're crushing the opposition. This kind of concentrated support actually means the potential to win seats is weaker than the popular vote indicates. Ontario is close race, so many of those swing seats will determine the next government if the race stays close. The NDP is slipping, but remains the second choice for most Liberal voters. This means Trudeau needs to be careful not to slip up or Mulcair may catch his supporters. The NDP remains strong in Québec according to this poll.

Harper is in trouble here, although it doesn't matter because elections are almost always decided during the campaign. Pollsters expect a bounce from sympathy for Flaherty, but they're mired in troubles stemming from their retooling of the elections act and multiple Constitutional lessons from the Supreme Court. Canadians are starting to question Harper's competency and his ability to surround himself with knowledgeable advisors.

[cybercoma]

You forgot to include the link....

Oh, I'm sorry. I took for granted that people would know how to find EKOS's website.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/05/if-you-cant-even-get-a-dead-cat-bounce-out-of-this-your-nine-lives-may-be-up/

[Michael Hardner]

The Ontario/Ottawa juxtaposition between Liberals and Conservatives seems on track to continue:

Davis/Trudeau

Peterson-Rae/Mulroney

Harris/Chretien

McGuinty/Harper

Hudak/Trudeau ?

It doesn't align up perfectly, but there you are.

[Keepitsimple]

Looks like the Globe and mail surver that I or

Oh, I'm sorry. I took for granted that people would know how to find EKOS's website.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/05/if-you-cant-even-get-a-dead-cat-bounce-out-of-this-your-nine-lives-may-be-up/

Looks like the G & M survey that I posted to raise this Topic was an outlier after all.

[cybercoma]

Looks like the Globe and mail surver that I or

Looks like the G & M survey that I posted to raise this Topic was an outlier after all.

Like I said, none of this matters anyway. The election will be decided during the campaign, as it almost always is. The NDP were sitting at 14% when Layton pulled the plug last time.

Edited May 3, 2014 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

It's too bad that there isn't a better choice. I'd love to be able to vote for someone other than the Conservatives, but...

[Bryan]

Using a probability sample of nearly 4000 Canadians surveyed between April 25 and May 1, the most recent EKOS poll has the following standings:

Liberals: 34.9%

Conservatives: 27.6%

New Democrats: 21.4%

Green Party: 8.2%

Margin of error is +/- 1.6%.

EKOS is the one company everyone needs to ignore outright. Their actual errors are consistently several times higher than their stated MOE. They have been the least accurate of all of the pollsters in the past several election cycles. There's actually a pretty accurate formula you can do you adjust EKOS' numbers to make them reflect what you'd actually get: take 5% off of the Liberals and add it to the Conservatives.

[cybercoma]

Bryan, I don't think you understand what Margin of Error means and you can throw EKOS out and look at 308 which aggregates polls. The Conservatives aren't ahead by any stretch of the imagination. Not yet anyway. But like I keep saying, it's largely irrelevant right now.

[Bryan]

Bryan, I don't think you understand what Margin of Error means and you can throw EKOS out and look at 308 which aggregates polls. The Conservatives aren't ahead by any stretch of the imagination. Not yet anyway. But like I keep saying, it's largely irrelevant right now.

Go back and look at the numbers EKOS has posted in comparison to:

a) almost anyone else's polling

the actual votes

They consistently glossily under-report the actual CPC support. Last Federal election, EKOS' final poll gave the CPC 34 (they got 40). In the real world, EKOS' current numbers mean that CPC is at least tied if not slightly leading.

[cybercoma]

What part of it doesn't matter do you not see? EKOS's numbers are in line with all the other polling firms recently. The outlier are the ones that have the CPC ahead right now. They're almost certainly not ahead, given the number of polls that say otherwise and the fact that the spread is outside the margin of error in just about every poll.