TheNewTeddy Posted June 24, 2012 Report Posted June 24, 2012 (edited) I typed this in to google and here are the top 5 news stories it spit out for me. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/12/nb-rothesay-byelection-patronage-1047.html http://www.cbc.ca/informationmorningsaintjohn/2012/06/19/rothesay-byelection-candidates-liberal-john-wilcox/ http://www.cbc.ca/shift/2012/06/19/blaney-appointment-an-issue-in-rothesay-by-election/ http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/08/nb-rothesay-byelection-candidates-318.html http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/18/nb-blaney-appointment-cost-flemming-patronage.html I've not read any of them because I know what's going on, but to give background to those who do not. In short: The PC government of NB has appointed one of it's members to something or something and it cost money or something. That's not important. What is important is that the NDP leader has decided to run here; here in this suburban community that the NDP has never been competitive in. Why is that important? He might win. "WHAT!?" you say No it's true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Brunswick_general_election,_2014 The NDP is polling well provincially And federally too http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (for easily visible regional breakdowns) The NDP's vote is 40% across the Atlantic, and I can assure you, all these votes are not all magically stacked in Nova Scotia. Being at 40% across the Atlantic would put the NDP at near 40% in New Brunswick. I can run you though the math if you have a problem with this statement. It's the same math I used to predict 10 Tories in Quebec in 2006 when everyone else said more than 6 was insanity, and, the same math I used to predict the NDP with over 50 seats in Quebec last election when people said "they don't have a base! 10 at most!" The question, however, remains as it weather or not Dominic Cardy, the NB NDP leader, can indeed win this seat. Rothesay is not very pro NDP http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/06/better-know-provincial-electoral.html This bedroom suburb in fact lends itself much better to Tory voters. With the Federal NDP at 40% in the province, and the provincial NDP at 20%, if Cardy can win, he could take the provincial party to first in the polls. The by-election is tomorrow night. June 25th. Edited June 24, 2012 by TheNewTeddy Quote Feel free to contact me outside the forums. Add "TheNewTeddy" to Twitter, Facebook, or Hotmail to reach me!
TheNewTeddy Posted June 26, 2012 Author Report Posted June 26, 2012 http://www.gnb.ca/elections/10prov/12jun25/12jun25results-e.asp Cardy is running Second nearly tied with the Liberals, and quite a distance back from the Tories, who are cruising to victory. This is a "tactical error" on the part of the NDP for running. Or put another way: Cardy was stupid for falling for the Lib/PC demands he run here, because now he looks like an idiot. Quote Feel free to contact me outside the forums. Add "TheNewTeddy" to Twitter, Facebook, or Hotmail to reach me!
Newfoundlander Posted June 26, 2012 Report Posted June 26, 2012 Cardy didn't come off to good here by the looks of it. I guess New Democrats will just say that this isn't his riding and the NDP didn't have roots here and blah blah blah... Quote
punked Posted June 26, 2012 Report Posted June 26, 2012 Don't talk big game if you don't know you are going to win. Quote
Newfoundlander Posted June 26, 2012 Report Posted June 26, 2012 Don't talk big game if you don't know you are going to win. Huh? Quote
punked Posted June 26, 2012 Report Posted June 26, 2012 Huh? The NDP brought up expectations so high they had to win to beat them. Quote
Newfoundlander Posted June 26, 2012 Report Posted June 26, 2012 The NDP brought up expectations so high they had to win to beat them. I never followed the race much but from what I had seen I thought he had a good shot at winning. Could definitely hurt NDP momentum there, though they still made big gains. Quote
PIK Posted June 27, 2012 Report Posted June 27, 2012 I typed this in to google and here are the top 5 news stories it spit out for me. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/12/nb-rothesay-byelection-patronage-1047.html http://www.cbc.ca/informationmorningsaintjohn/2012/06/19/rothesay-byelection-candidates-liberal-john-wilcox/ http://www.cbc.ca/shift/2012/06/19/blaney-appointment-an-issue-in-rothesay-by-election/ http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/08/nb-rothesay-byelection-candidates-318.html http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/18/nb-blaney-appointment-cost-flemming-patronage.html I've not read any of them because I know what's going on, but to give background to those who do not. In short: The PC government of NB has appointed one of it's members to something or something and it cost money or something. That's not important. What is important is that the NDP leader has decided to run here; here in this suburban community that the NDP has never been competitive in. Why is that important? He might win. "WHAT!?" you say No it's true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Brunswick_general_election,_2014 The NDP is polling well provincially And federally too http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (for easily visible regional breakdowns) The NDP's vote is 40% across the Atlantic, and I can assure you, all these votes are not all magically stacked in Nova Scotia. Being at 40% across the Atlantic would put the NDP at near 40% in New Brunswick. I can run you though the math if you have a problem with this statement. It's the same math I used to predict 10 Tories in Quebec in 2006 when everyone else said more than 6 was insanity, and, the same math I used to predict the NDP with over 50 seats in Quebec last election when people said "they don't have a base! 10 at most!" The question, however, remains as it weather or not Dominic Cardy, the NB NDP leader, can indeed win this seat. Rothesay is not very pro NDP http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/06/better-know-provincial-electoral.html This bedroom suburb in fact lends itself much better to Tory voters. With the Federal NDP at 40% in the province, and the provincial NDP at 20%, if Cardy can win, he could take the provincial party to first in the polls. The by-election is tomorrow night. June 25th. We will see how the NDP federal numbers hold up when mulcair says he is going to cancel the ship building contracts. I know he has not said anything but I am sure he will be against it. Quote Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
cybercoma Posted June 30, 2012 Report Posted June 30, 2012 The PC's won the seat with less than 50% of the vote this time, when last election they had 58% of the vote there. The NDP significantly increased its share of the vote, although they came in third. Rothesay is one of the wealthiest ridings in NB, so it's hardly surprising that it's still in Conservative hands. Quote
TheNewTeddy Posted June 30, 2012 Author Report Posted June 30, 2012 Godin should run for the provincial leadership, he could actually win the province. The federal NDP is strong enough to find some random to hold his riding, but the provincial NDP needs a strong hand at the top to win. Quote Feel free to contact me outside the forums. Add "TheNewTeddy" to Twitter, Facebook, or Hotmail to reach me!
cybercoma Posted June 30, 2012 Report Posted June 30, 2012 Godin should run for the provincial leadership, he could actually win the province. The federal NDP is strong enough to find some random to hold his riding, but the provincial NDP needs a strong hand at the top to win. Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province. He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party. Cardy's the guy to beat. The problem in Rothesay is that it's a solid Conservative riding. The hit they took is telling because no one expected them to actually lose the riding. Their drop in support doesn't bode well for them in the next provincial election. Moreover, Cardy's not from Rothesay and I believe that hurt him. Quote
TheNewTeddy Posted July 3, 2012 Author Report Posted July 3, 2012 Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province. He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party. Cardy's the guy to beat. The problem in Rothesay is that it's a solid Conservative riding. The hit they took is telling because no one expected them to actually lose the riding. Their drop in support doesn't bode well for them in the next provincial election. Moreover, Cardy's not from Rothesay and I believe that hurt him. You make 3 great points, which are all true. >Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province. >He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party. >Cardy's the guy to beat. But fail to realize this. >Cardy did not have to run. He did. He chose to run in a place he knew he could not win. He made a foolish decision and this shows he, despite being one of the best leaders, despite being a modernizer, a social democrat, and the 'guy to beat', that despite all of that, he has 0 political instinct. Quote Feel free to contact me outside the forums. Add "TheNewTeddy" to Twitter, Facebook, or Hotmail to reach me!
cybercoma Posted July 3, 2012 Report Posted July 3, 2012 I wouldn't say he knew he couldn't win. Some of the polling had the NDP in the lead in the riding before the election. Polling, as of late, has proven extremely unreliable however. Quote
socialist Posted July 3, 2012 Report Posted July 3, 2012 I wouldn't say he knew he couldn't win. Some of the polling had the NDP in the lead in the riding before the election. Polling, as of late, has proven extremely unreliable however. lets hope there aren't any dirty tricks by the cpc like the robocalls SCANDAL. Quote Thankful to have become a free thinker.
cybercoma Posted July 3, 2012 Report Posted July 3, 2012 lets hope there aren't any dirty tricks by the cpc like the robocalls SCANDAL. It's the PC party at the provincial level. Even though Alward is working overtime for a patronage appointment methinks. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.