Craig Scott wins the bi election!

[Newfoundlander]

Yes I checked out the results for that riding,it was a close race between the libs and the NDP with the liberals winning.However the turnout for the general was 10 000app. greater than the byelection.And the greatest benificiary was the conservatives that still lost this one.

WWWTT

Yes but both are left wing ridings where they are not competitive anyway.

[punked]

Well for a party many are saying is dead, particularly Conservatives and Dippers, they were the only party to gain support eventhough they ran a last minute no name candidate in a riding where the odds were completely against them.

Conservatives ran a terrible candidate and their support naturally bleed to the Liberals. Nothing shocking about that, what is shocking is the NDP kept their support with out Jack. That is a big win for the NDP across the country.

[Newfoundlander]

Conservatives ran a terrible candidate and their support naturally bleed to the Liberals. Nothing shocking about that, what is shocking is the NDP kept their support with out Jack. That is a big win for the NDP across the country.

Either that or the Liberals were just very efficient at getting out their vote. Conservative support doesn't necessarily go to the Liberals when their party runs a weak campaign.

[dre]

WWWTT, you raise a good question. Why do urban ridings tend to go NDP/Liberal?

I reckon that urbanites tend to follow fads/fashion and we live in an era where "the Left" is the fad. Indeed, the term "progressive" is synonym for "fashionable".

For urbanites, Conservatives are simply not cool. It would be like wearing Uggs now.

Thats a pretty poor analysis. It has a lot more to do with socio-economics, and a diferent urban lifestyle. City life requires constant cooperation and interaction with a diverse set of people and cultures. Rural life is more individualistic, and people are more self sufficient and less exposed to other people.

[punked]

Either that or the Liberals were just very efficient at getting out their vote. Conservative support doesn't necessarily go to the Liberals when their party runs a weak campaign.

Where else is it going to bleed? Conservatives are more likely to vote even if they don't have a candidate, many riddings where they have no shot their are whisper campaigns among the group who to vote for, all I see is the Conservatives didn't even try to their vote bleed to the Liberals. Wont happen in a general.

The Liberals spent a lot of capital to lose a race by 30 points. A race they talked a BIG BIG game about. Heck someone was even talking about a prominent Canadian Journalist running for the Liberals. They spent $87,000 to lose by 30 points and get an extra 1000 votes. That is probably twice what they usually spend for 1000 votes big deal. I would expect their vote to go when they double their spending wouldn't you? In the end like most things Liberal it was a big disappointment.

Edited March 20, 2012 by punked

[Newfoundlander]

Where else is it going to bleed?

Conservative support went to the NDP in St. John's.

[punked]

Conservative support went to the NDP in St. John's.

Again when Conservatives think they beat someone they don't like they will start whisper campaigns to vote for someone else and bleed their vote. It is clear here the NDP vote stuck and the Cons bleed to the Liberals. Wont happen in a general.

[August1991]

Apparently, the riding hasn't been Tory since Towser was a pup. What type of people live and vote in this riding? City core? Welfare, unions, teachers and kids? Sounds like core NDP to me. Non-union working middle class has never been strong for the NDP. It's always been Tory or Liberal and the Liberals are not popular in that demographic these days.

The only result that could have meant anything would have been for the NDP to lose! And the chances of that happening were like trying to fill an inside straight.

WB, you raise two good questions:

1. Why do "city cores" vote Leftist? Or, why do city cores have so many "Welfare, unions, teachers and kids?"

2. The Liberals owned the riding under Dennis Mills. Why is it now NDP?

[August1991]

My neighbourhood in the riding is middle to upper middle class; possibly union people, which would include teachers, but I'd find it intriguing if there were somehow more teachers living there than in any other similarly afluent neighbourhood in, say, Calgary, Alberta (where teachers are also unionised). Certainly not many welfare households and even less kids (if, by "kids", university age people working part-time or not at all is meant). Then there's the Chinatown just down the road at Broadview and Gerrard; it's also awash in NDP signs, but how many union members, kids, or welfare cases are living there? In other similar ethnic enclaves, it's Liberal signs one expects to see in yards and windows. But in Toronto-Danforth's Chinatown, it's nearly all NDP.

Urban people follow fads maybe because they lack trustworthy word of mouth. (I mean that in rural areas, people tend to know one another better and can trust the idiocy of certain neighbours.) Or maybe mobs are a feature of anonymous urban life. Dunno.

Anyway, "progressivism" is the current fad/mob mentality and it has been for the past 60 years or so.

God knows what the next fad will be.

Edited March 23, 2012 by August1991

[g_bambino]

Urban people follow fads...

Since rural Ontarians seems to be mostly Conservative supporters and the prairies used to be a hotbed for the NDP, don't non-urban people then follow fads, too?

[Newfoundlander]

WB, you raise two good questions:

1. Why do "city cores" vote Leftist? Or, why do city cores have so many "Welfare, unions, teachers and kids?"

2. The Liberals owned the riding under Dennis Mills. Why is it now NDP?

City cores seem to attract similar demographics and personalities.

Dennis Mills I guess was a popular figure. As well he only narrowly won election in 1988, which despite their loss was a good comeback election for the Liberals, and the Liberal Party owned Ontario in the 1990's for various reasons. The Liberals have not had strong polling numbers in years, if they were polling in the 30's and the NDP were in the teens the riding probably could have went Liberal under Jack Layton or Craig Scott.

[August1991]

Since rural Ontarians seems to be mostly Conservative supporters and the prairies used to be a hotbed for the NDP, don't non-urban people then follow fads, too?

And the federal CCF/NDP has suffered this split since its origins. Indeed, it is about to confront the split this weekend.

IMV, rural people are fundamentally conservative and urban people follow fads. The NDP is split. Let's see how they resolve this regional split.

I suspect that it will be Nathan Cullen vs. Thomas Mulcair on the final ballot. Cullen (while born in Toronto) is perceived as the rural, practical, conservative base of the NDP. Mulcair is its new progressive urban core.

Maybe Cullen will win.

----

Bambino, for many years, the NDP/Bloc have gone urban, followed fads.

Edited March 23, 2012 by August1991

[Wild Bill]

And the federal CCF/NDP has suffered this split since its origins. Indeed, it is about to confront the split this weekend.

IMV, rural people are fundamentally conservative and urban people follow fads. The NDP is split. Let's see how they resolve this regional split.

I suspect that it will be Nathan Cullen vs. Thomas Mulcair on the final ballot. Cullen (while born in Toronto) is perceived as the rural, practical, conservative base of the NDP. Mulcair is its new progressive urban core.

Maybe Cullen will win.

----

Bambino, for many years, the NDP/Bloc have gone urban, followed fads.

August, not to pick apart your model instead of your point (a VERY popular custom here on MLW!) but my understanding was that the original CCF WAS a rural party! It came from the prairies with Tommy Douglas.

When it morphed into the NDP and decided to seek its support with the eastern Canada union workers was when the rural/urban split began. The point of view of a farmer and a guy who bangs bumpers on an assembly line tends to be quite different.

Of course, this looked like a smart move at the time to the NDP. There are far more assembly line workers than farmers, when the votes are counted. Still, one wonders if they could have thrown those farmers at least a few bones, instead of just ignoring them.

[madmax]

August, not to pick apart your model instead of your point (a VERY popular custom here on MLW!) but my understanding was that the original CCF WAS a rural party! It came from the prairies with Tommy Douglas.

Most parties of that era were Rural, but the CCF focused on the Cooperatives after the collapse of the Federal United Farmers Party foray into and out of Being the Federal Government. In Ontario.. the United Farmers ended up forming the base of the Liberal Party.. thus the Old Nixon Liberals were very Rural small c conservatives IIRC.

When it morphed into the NDP and decided to seek its support with the eastern Canada union workers was when the rural/urban split began. The point of view of a farmer and a guy who bangs bumpers on an assembly line tends to be quite different.

Of course, this looked like a smart move at the time to the NDP. There are far more assembly line workers than farmers, when the votes are counted. Still, one wonders if they could have thrown those farmers at least a few bones, instead of just ignoring them.

The CCF has had labour ties for its entire existance.. they were never formal.. but were made formal in the 60s with the creation of the "NEW PARTY"

The Federal NDP have never been in power to offer the "Rural Farmers bones" but the Provincial CCF/NDP were able to do so for decades longer.

The Ontario Liberals eventually became what we see today.

The CCF of Sask/Manitoba became very city oriented after decades of holding back the tide of corporate farming and the diminishing of the family farm. As Mr. Smith would say..

it was inevitable.

The History of the farming community is to be ignored, unless they take matters into their own hands. Today there aren't enough of them.

Goodbye Wheatboard.. Hello Agricorp.

The CPC is not the friend of the farmer today.

However, they have few ... and if you follow the history.. the farming community has played an active role in all political parties...

And no political party gives them much more then lip service today.

There is no block of votes anymore and at one time the Farmers were the "Small Businessman" of the era.

The CCF was the largest small business party in western canada.

The CCF/NDP polling numbers and seats never really changed over its 70years of existance.

The biggest changes came in the last 5 years...

The world is a different place then in 1935 CCF era.

[cybercoma]

WB, you raise two good questions:

1. Why do "city cores" vote Leftist? Or, why do city cores have so many "Welfare, unions, teachers and kids?"

Probably because the city is where the bulk of the people, industry, and businesses are?

[cybercoma]

Urban people follow fads

This is such an odd statement. Is there some sort of homogeneous set of "urban people"? I mean, 30 seconds in downtown Montreal and you should realize that the absolute last thing there is in a major urban centre in Canada is homogeneity.

[cybercoma]

Since rural Ontarians seems to be mostly Conservative supporters and the prairies used to be a hotbed for the NDP, don't non-urban people then follow fads, too?

Albertans follow fads. Well except for the urban area (Edmonton-Strathcona) that voted NDP. They were definitely bucking the Albertan fad.

[cybercoma]

City cores seem to attract similar demographics and personalities.

That's not even close to the truth. There's more diversity in cities. Full stop.

[TwoDucks]

I suspect that it will be Nathan Cullen vs. Thomas Mulcair on the final ballot. Cullen (while born in Toronto) is perceived as the rural, practical, conservative base of the NDP. Mulcair is its new progressive urban core.

Maybe Cullen will win.

Have you looked at any of Cullen's politics? Even though his riding could be considered rural (Northern BC), he is definitely from the progressive, green camp in the NDP.