cybercoma Posted July 12, 2012 Report Posted July 12, 2012 Huh.. So don't bother with seat projections in future posts then? Post them. That's what 308 does, but it doesn't really mean much. Quote
madmax Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/raes-exit-honeymoon-boosts-liberals-in-quebec-in-latest-nanos-poll/article4427072/?cmpid=rss1 CPC 33.6 NDP 30.2 LPC 26.5 Quote
Newfoundlander Posted July 19, 2012 Author Report Posted July 19, 2012 Latest Nanos shows a decline in NDP support with the Libs in second in every region but BC. Mulcair numbers also dropped off a bit in the leadership index. Is this poll off or is his honeymoon ending? Quote
punked Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 (edited) Latest Nanos shows a decline in NDP support with the Libs in second in every region but BC. Mulcair numbers also dropped off a bit in the leadership index. Is this poll off or is his honeymoon ending? We will have to wait for a few more to see. Although right now with a leader everyone knows wont every actually be the head of the party the poll seems useless. Edited July 19, 2012 by punked Quote
Moonbox Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
Wild Bill Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? Well, most folks recognize that they just don't matter but the NDP folks always have a bit different take on it. They seem to think that if they get even one poll that gives them a lead, however slight, in the dog days between elections, then their victory will be assured and all their political rivals should just give up in despair and allow it to happen! Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
Newfoundlander Posted July 19, 2012 Author Report Posted July 19, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? Right! Someone should delete this thread all together! Quote
Moonbox Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 It's kind of funny. Several years ago, polling was indicating that the GREEN party was the fore-runner leading up to the next election in Guelph. IRC Guelph was set to have a bi-election and the Green party was super pumped about getting their first seat. Harper called the snap election that year so the bi-election never happened. At any rate, it was interesting to see what happened in the election results. My friends and I went to one of the larger local bars to have a few drinks that night, and the Green Party staff and candidate had booked the entire lower level for their 'celebration'. Maybe I'm a terrible person, but there was something entertaining about watching what was a loud, ecstatic crowd at the beginning of the night turn into an utterly silent and dejected one. How on earth did they go from easily leading the polls prior to the election to a distant FOURTH place in actual results??? Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
madmax Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? Because its there Quote
madmax Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Right! Someone should delete this thread all together! Dislike Quote
cybercoma Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Well, most folks recognize that they just don't matter but the NDP folks always have a bit different take on it. They seem to think that if they get even one poll that gives them a lead, however slight, in the dog days between elections, then their victory will be assured and all their political rivals should just give up in despair and allow it to happen! That's right. Canadians opinions don't matter between elections. Quote
wyly Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? why are you here commenting on it if it doesn't matter?...apparently it does matter, polls shape party direction... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
Tilter Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 It's kind of funny. Several years ago, polling was indicating that the GREEN party was the fore-runner leading up to the next election in Guelph. IRC Guelph was set to have a bi-election and the Green party was super pumped about getting their first seat. Harper called the snap election that year so the bi-election never happened. At any rate, it was interesting to see what happened in the election results. My friends and I went to one of the larger local bars to have a few drinks that night, and the Green Party staff and candidate had booked the entire lower level for their 'celebration'. Maybe I'm a terrible person, but there was something entertaining about watching what was a loud, ecstatic crowd at the beginning of the night turn into an utterly silent and dejected one. How on earth did they go from easily leading the polls prior to the election to a distant FOURTH place in actual results??? Do what dogs do to poles :lol: Quote
Moonbox Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 why are you here commenting on it if it doesn't matter?...apparently it does matter, polls shape party direction... Three years from an election? Only very, very vaguely. Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
wyly Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Three years from an election? Only very, very vaguely. oh I disagree, they may publicly shrug off early poll results but they're very aware of them...polls tell parties if their pissing people off, they inform them if they're keeping a good profile in the news, they don't want the other parties to get all the attention etc...ignoring consistent bad polls is dangerous strategy... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
TwoDucks Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Addressing the drop in NDP support, I can't help but wonder if it's due to all the noise about Justin Trudeau maybe possibly running for Liberal leadership? The Liberals are certainly benefitting from the drop. Quote
cybercoma Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 (edited) Addressing the drop in NDP support, I can't help but wonder if it's due to all the noise about Justin Trudeau maybe possibly running for Liberal leadership? The Liberals are certainly benefitting from the drop. Trudeau as Liberal leader is potentially disastrous to the NDP. However, one must bear in mind that he's not leader yet, has taken no positions on anything, and there's a leadership campaign ahead. People are basing their opinions off their fantasy of Trudeau right now, rather than the reality of what he has (or doesn't have) to offer. In my biased opinion, he would be wise not to run until he establishes himself more politically. By running now, he will have to live up to the mythos of his father. The problem with that of course is that it's not based in reality. Even PET himself couldn't live up to the image Canadians have of him today. Until Justin can run on his own record, I believe he can only disappoint people because there is no room to exceed their expectations. Edited July 19, 2012 by cybercoma Quote
Wild Bill Posted July 19, 2012 Report Posted July 19, 2012 Addressing the drop in NDP support, I can't help but wonder if it's due to all the noise about Justin Trudeau maybe possibly running for Liberal leadership? The Liberals are certainly benefitting from the drop. I don't think so, TD. Maybe you're right but I'm more inclined to think this is just a normal drop for an Opposition party. It's been long enough for people to get a bit bored and start to lose interest in what was really just an anti-Harper choice, rather than a choice FOR something! I'll bet that if we looked back at the results of previous elections the support for ALL parties dwindled between ballot box times! Only nerds like us pay attention between elections! Most people only think seriously about their political choices when they HAVE to, which is at election time! In between, why do you think politicians have to give people free food at BBQs to get them to listen to them? Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
Bryan Posted July 22, 2012 Report Posted July 22, 2012 Why are we debating polls 3 years from an election? I don't know about debate, but keeping track can be informative (and fun) over time. The general trend in the past has been a spike in popularity for a new opposition leader, followed by a return to something pretty close to what the actual election result was. It's interesting to see if that's what's going on now considering so many other things have changed. So far, it looks like that's what's happening, and at least for me it's very interesting to follow along as see if it continues (or if it doesn't, where the difference happens). Are you saying you don't find it interesting? Quote
Newfoundlander Posted August 2, 2012 Author Report Posted August 2, 2012 This Quebec poll includes federal numbers. The NDP are at 34%, the Bloc are at 24%, the Liberals are at 19%, the Conservatives are at 15% and the Greens are at 4%. https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/94572_Quebec_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf While the NDP still have a good lead they have dropped a fair bit. Quote
punked Posted August 2, 2012 Report Posted August 2, 2012 This Quebec poll includes federal numbers. The NDP are at 34%, the Bloc are at 24%, the Liberals are at 19%, the Conservatives are at 15% and the Greens are at 4%. https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/94572_Quebec_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf While the NDP still have a good lead they have dropped a fair bit. They only have to stay as the Federal option and the not harper option in Quebec for the next election and some of both the Liberal and Bloc vote WILL bleed to them. Believe me as an NDPer for years and years being the alternative (as the Liberals have been for years) will bleed you some votes. As little as 3-4% or as much as 10% but it will happen so the Liberals really need to go big with the next leader and get someone who can talk to Quebec because those numbers will spell terrible things nationally if they hold. Once people see that the Liberals can't win because of their Quebec numbers the Maritimes will swing to the NDP and Ontario Liberal votes will follow. They got 3 years so plenty of time to rebuild. Quote
Newfoundlander Posted August 2, 2012 Author Report Posted August 2, 2012 They only have to stay as the Federal option and the not harper option in Quebec for the next election and some of both the Liberal and Bloc vote WILL bleed to them. Believe me as an NDPer for years and years being the alternative (as the Liberals have been for years) will bleed you some votes. As little as 3-4% or as much as 10% but it will happen so the Liberals really need to go big with the next leader and get someone who can talk to Quebec because those numbers will spell terrible things nationally if they hold. Once people see that the Liberals can't win because of their Quebec numbers the Maritimes will swing to the NDP and Ontario Liberal votes will follow. They got 3 years so plenty of time to rebuild. We'll see how this plays out if the Liberals elect a Quebecker as leader. Though who knows what difference that will make seeing it doesn't matter a whole lot for Mulcair if you look at his decline in support in Quebec since March. Quote
Wild Bill Posted August 2, 2012 Report Posted August 2, 2012 We'll see how this plays out if the Liberals elect a Quebecker as leader. Though who knows what difference that will make seeing it doesn't matter a whole lot for Mulcair if you look at his decline in support in Quebec since March. Actually, the Liberals ALWAYS choose a Quebecer! The only change is from an anglophone to a francophone. After Ignatief, I believe it is an francophone's turn. Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
punked Posted August 2, 2012 Report Posted August 2, 2012 We'll see how this plays out if the Liberals elect a Quebecker as leader. Though who knows what difference that will make seeing it doesn't matter a whole lot for Mulcair if you look at his decline in support in Quebec since March. Naaahhh the drop has more to do with PQ rise in the polls. Wait till after the next provincial election we see the Bloc rise with the strength of the PQ. They wont be popular in 3-4 if they win or they don't so I think you are drawing a lot of conclusion when it is clear the Liberals aren't gaining the ground they need to be. Quote
Evening Star Posted August 5, 2012 Report Posted August 5, 2012 (edited) Actually, the Liberals ALWAYS choose a Quebecer! ? Neither Rae nor Ignatieff is a Quebecer. Edited August 5, 2012 by Evening Star Quote
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