Polling

[Newfoundlander]

Not a whole lot of polling out in recent weeks, but I didn't notice a polling thread so I thought I'd create one.

The most interesting poll of late is the most recent poll out of Quebec by Forum Research. The poll, which was just looked at by ThreeHundredEight.com, shows that the NDP is in third place behind the Liberals and Bloc Québécois. Eric predicts that with 22% the NDP could win just 4 seats in the province, behind even the Conservatives.

[olpfan1]

Eric predicts that with 22% the NDP could win just 4 seats in the province, behind even the Conservatives.

Yeah, anyone who thinks the NDP will hold on to those seats are kidding themselves. The ONLY reason they won Quebec was because of Jack Layton. I have a feeling the Bloc Quebecois will rise from the dead.

[MiddleClassCentrist]

That didn't take too long if the polls are accurate.

Maybe this province vs province banter in the news recently is reigniting different political allegiances.

[Evening Star]

It's an interesting poll but I don't think olp1fan's conclusion can be drawn from it. We're a ways away from an election and both the Liberals and NDP have interim leaders now. (Rae >>> Turmel and that's making a difference, no doubt.)

Liberal support in QC is really interesting, and a little surprising, to me, given their history there. It may well just be that they're the more effective left-of-centre voice right now. (I know they're often not a left-of-centre party in practice but they have been behaving like one.)

This is from Valentine's Day: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2012/02/ndp-up-in-bc-down-in-quebec.html#comment-form

It also shows the Grits in 1st in QC (NDP second), with the NDP with a solid lead in BC and tied with the CPC in Atlantic Canada. (I believe they're tied or close in MB/SK as well.)

[olpfan1]

It's an interesting poll but I don't think olp1fan's conclusion can be drawn from it. We're a ways away from an election and both the Liberals and NDP have interim leaders now. (Rae >>> Turmel and that's making a difference, no doubt.)

I thought it was obvious many of the Quebec NDP MP's were voted in solely cause Jack Layton was the party leader

Quite a few NDP MPs never thought they had a snowballs chance in hell of winning

A few of them didn't even campaign ... one was on vacation in Las Vegas..

[Evening Star]

I thought it was obvious many of the Quebec NDP MP's were voted in solely cause Jack Layton was the party leader

Quite a few NDP MPs never thought they had a snowballs chance in hell of winning

A few of them didn't even campaign ... one was on vacation in Las Vegas..

MPs may not have been elected due to their own appeal or accomplishments but that doesn't necessarily mean it was only Layton's personal appeal that led to their wins, as opposed to e.g. the appeal of NDP policies or fatigue with the other options. (It's a long way from being obvious to me, at least.) Nor does it mean that another NDP leader could not attract the QC vote again.

[olpfan1]

MPs may not have been elected due to their own appeal or accomplishments but that doesn't necessarily mean it was only Layton's personal appeal that led to their wins, as opposed to e.g. the appeal of NDP policies or fatigue with the other options. (It's a long way from being obvious to me, at least.) Nor does it mean that another NDP leader could not attract the QC vote again.

Haha, no, it's pretty clear it was only because Layton was the leader of the NDP .. you may disagree though

but this is old news

[Evening Star]

Haha, no, it's pretty clear it was only because Layton was the leader of the NDP .. you may disagree though

I do. It would be easier for me to buy that if the surge happened in Layton's first election.

[Newfoundlander]

I do. It would be easier for me to buy that if the surge happened in Layton's first election.

Why? I don't believe Layton was that popular when he became leader, it usually takes a while for people to warm up to leaders.

As Lise St Denis said "Voters voted for Jack Layton. Jack Layton is dead."

[Evening Star]

I still just think it's too soon to come to hard conclusions about the reasons why Quebecers voted NDP and whether they will do so again. (If Layton was so irresistibly charming, why didn't English Canadian voters flock to him as well? Are Quebecers really that much more shallow that they would vote for any likeable personality regardless of what he has to say or did the content of his message have some impact as well?)

I don't think it's wildly unlikely, for example, that voters in a highly social democratic, union-happy province chose to switch from the BQ (whose policies on most issues other than separatism were very close to the NDP's) to the NDP when separatism lost its appeal, maybe partly because of an appealing leader but also partly because of policy. I don't think it's impossible that another leader could sustain some of that. They might not but it seems really premature to judge.

[Evening Star]

(Btw, I get that Layton was more charismatic and comfortable than Harper or Ignatieff but I never found him phenomenally magnetic or anything, which is another reason I'm a little sceptical of this narrative.)

[j44]

Like most things I'm sure the truth lies in the middle. But to say Jack Layton was the only reason 1000s voted NDP is silly.

[Newfoundlander]

? Are Quebecers really that much more shallow that they would vote for any likeable personality regardless of what he has to say or did the content of his message have some impact as well?)

Yes.

I think the Layton benefitted from the fact that his two main rivals were dull and unpopular, along with both their parties. The Bloc started abandoning their roots which was helpful. I do believe the NDPs policies jive well with Quebecker, but I don't think much of that played a role in the party's breakthrough.

Evening Star mentioned that if it was just about Layton why didn't they vote for him in 2004, but if it was just about policy why didn't Quebeckers vote for the party in the 50's, 60's, 70's etc..? As well how would you explain the fact that the NDP rose in the polls immediately following Layton's appearance on Tout le monde en parle?

[Evening Star]

Evening Star mentioned that if it was just about Layton why didn't they vote for him in 2004, but if it was just about policy why didn't Quebeckers vote for the party in the 50's, 60's, 70's etc..?

I never said it was just about policy, just that it seems questionable to attribute all of it to Layton's personal appeal. I actually think the phenomenon was a little mysterious myself and am sceptical of people who are sure they can pin it down, especially to something as simple or shallow as that.

Quebecers didn't vote NDP in the 50s because the party was only founded in 1961. NDP policy in the 60s, 70s, and 80s was not at all the same as current NDP policy nor were Quebecers' concerns in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s the same as they are now. Layton did a great deal to promote policies that were attractive to Quebecers so I do think he deserves significant credit for the surge: I just think it might go deeper than just sheer personal charm.

As well how would you explain the fact that the NDP rose in the polls immediately following Layton's appearance on Tout le monde en parle?

I just watched the interview. Some of it is about personal or fluffy material but most of it is concerned with policy. He did an excellent job of presenting NDP policy as being tailored to the values and concerns of Quebecers. He also stressed a desire to create 'winning conditions' to make 'Canada work for Quebec' and emphasized that this was the key difference between the NDP and the BQ (as well as mentioning NDP policies on bilingualism outside Quebec). I can see why saying these things on a popular TV show would make a difference to Quebecers.

Previous NDP leaders were generally not saying these things or at least were not saying them in excellent French and addressing them to the values of Quebecers. That doesn't mean that future NDP leaders can't.

Edited March 2, 2012 by Evening Star

[capricorn]

He did an excellent job of presenting NDP policy as being tailored to the values and concerns of Quebecers.

This is not exclusive to Layton. Federal politicians are quite adept at tailoring their message to regional preoccupations and interests. They walk a fine line and have to be careful not to pit said messages against what they say in regions in the ROC.

[Evening Star]

This is not exclusive to Layton. Federal politicians are quite adept at tailoring their message to regional preoccupations and interests. They walk a fine line and have to be careful not to pit said messages against what they say in regions in the ROC.

I'm aware of this (although I do think that Layton managed this trick better than either previous NDP leaders or Ignatieff in 2011). My point was just that the subsequent surge in NDP popularity in QC might have had as much to do with the content of what he was saying on the show as with the personal charm and charisma of a 60-year-old man with a used car salesman moustache who made lame jokes about hashtags.

[capricorn]

I'm aware of this (although I do think that Layton managed this trick better than either previous NDP leaders or Ignatieff in 2011).

Big time.

[Newfoundlander]

On another note, I don't if any polling is currently being done in the country but it should very interesting to see how robocon plays into the results.

[Evening Star]

New Ekos poll shows NDP and Conservatives tied within the margin of error:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_march_2_2012.pdf

Edited March 3, 2012 by Evening Star

[Newfoundlander]

I never use to mind Ekos but they still continue to have Green Party support way higher than any other pollster, and they've been pretty off in elections. Interesting poll nonetheless, if the NDP's support in Quebec hadn't eroded they'd probably be in first.

[Bryan]

I never use to mind Ekos but they still continue to have Green Party support way higher than any other pollster, and they've been pretty off in elections. Interesting poll nonetheless, if the NDP's support in Quebec hadn't eroded they'd probably be in first.

I do think that since EKOS is the most recent poll to the Robo call hysteria, people are interested in it, but you make a very good point: EKOS' track record is pretty bad.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Bryan

[cybercoma]

I thought EKOS was the most accurate in the last two elections? Which one was it that people thought was off (because he was off from the others), but his predictions were closest to reality both times?

Edited March 3, 2012 by cybercoma

[mentalfloss]

Threehundredeight usually reports an average of all polls in the second week of every month.

[cybercoma]

It wasn't 308.

[CPCFTW]

Probably nanos