Alberta Election 2012

[waldo]

But do carry on, you are mildly entertaining.

mildly entertaining? Just mildly? Look, I appreciate you're still burning from the lil' rubbin you took over Harper Conservative ties to the Wildrose... I get that. Let me know if you'd like me to take it a bit easier on ya!

so... the DocLiberalLeader, Raj Sherman, makes allegations but resists naming names given, as stated, that he hasn't received confidentiality release(s) from individuals involved. No problem - DocLeader deserves scrutiny. Apparently, the PC party felt his imprudence enough to turf him from the party.

meanwhile, the story surfaces about the thoracic surgeon who was "forced out"... your convenient rail against CBC notwithstanding, the same coverage of that subject appears in both the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal... but don't let that stop you from railing against the CBC article I linked to. In any case, as I understand from reading, the details surrounding that article's subject, coupled with DocLeader's initial allegations, were enough for the combined Alberta Opposition parties to join together in calling for a judicial inquiry into Alberta Health Care processes. The resulting weeks pressure, apparently, as I read it... caused Alberta PC Leader, Alison Redford, to request the 'Alberta Health Council (AHC)' undertake an investigation. As I understand it, from reading, the AHC did exactly that... undertook a comprehensive investigation... and came back with a scathing report... a report that has, ultimately, necessitated the PC party to introduce legislation to formally investigate identified problems/concerns further; i.e., Bill 24. By the way, do you like apples? Well... how do you like those Bill 24 mildly entertaining apples, hey?

[fellowtraveller]

Look, I appreciate you're still burning from the lil' rubbin you took over Harper Conservative ties to the Wildrose... I get that. Let me know if you'd like me to take it a bit easier on ya!

so... the DocLiberalLeader, Raj Sherman, makes allegations but resists naming names given, as stated, that he hasn't received confidentiality release(s) from individuals involved. No problem - DocLeader deserves scrutiny. Apparently, the PC party felt his imprudence enough to turf him from the party.

My, you are on a roll! Kevins Pages factless speculations on OAS, The Grope and Flails meanderings on alleged Wildrose/PC ties, and now Raj Sherman is your hero! Sherman got booted because he made very serious allegations wihtout providing a single fact to back them and still has not done so. I can see how that appeals to you.

the story surfaces about the thoracic surgeon who was "forced out"... your convenient rail against CBC notwithstanding, the same coverage of that subject appears in both the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal... but don't let that stop you from railing against the CBC article I linked to

I agree, 'journalists' are lazy bastards who try to get by with recycling 11 year old lawsuits in which not a single fact was obtained or allegation proven. Thank goodness you are around to point that out by linking to these opinion pieces masquerading as facts.

In any case, as I understand from reading, the details surrounding that article's subject, coupled with DocLeader's initial allegations, were enough for the combined Alberta Opposition parties to join together in calling for a judicial inquiry into Alberta Health Care processes. The resulting weeks pressure, apparently, as I read it... caused Alberta PC Leader, Alison Redford, to request the 'Alberta Health Council (AHC)' undertake an investigation.

You're still on that fact free roll. The AHC investigation- which is not public and not judicial- started over a year ago. long before Redford was Premier or Sherman became Beloved Leader. The Opposiiton, such as it is, is constantly outraged and calling for inquiries constantly. Google 'Brian Mason NDO Leader' and 'outrage'. You'll get so many hits your computer will sieze up. Brian does outrage very well, which is good because that is about all he does.

As I understand it, from reading, the AHC did exactly that... undertook a comprehensive investigation... and came back with a scathing report... a report that has, ultimately, necessitated the PC party to introduce legislation to formally investigate identified problems/concerns further;

Rolling right along, the AHC has not yet released their report, so it would be tough for it to create legislation beforehand.

how do you like those Bill 24 mildly entertaining apples, hey

Love 'em, though I am puzzled on how you copuld possibly conclude that Raj Sherman has anything to do with Bill 24. The main thrust of the Bill is to get the AHC out from where it is buried in AHS and have it report to the Legislature. It will also give it quasi judicial powers and put it on the same basis as other investigatory bodies in the province. The legioslation will have zero impact on the current AHC investiagtion. The enhancement of power and stature is appropriate given how much money is spent on health care, and the qaulity assurance review function of AHC will be retained. You really need to do more homework, though it is much more fun watching what comes from you when you don't.

[waldo]

Love 'em, though I am puzzled on how you copuld possibly conclude that Raj Sherman has anything to do with Bill 24. The main thrust of the Bill is to get the AHC out from where it is buried in AHS and have it report to the Legislature. It will also give it quasi judicial powers and put it on the same basis as other investigatory bodies in the province. The legioslation will have zero impact on the current AHC investiagtion. The enhancement of power and stature is appropriate given how much money is spent on health care, and the qaulity assurance review function of AHC will be retained. You really need to do more homework, though it is much more fun watching what comes from you when you don't.

wow! Bloody amazing... here, since you apparently can't be bothered to actually read the link I put up, I'll quote specifically from it, drawing direct linkage between Raj Sherman allegations, Redford intent action/Bill 24 legislation:

Redford promised legislation to deal with allegations that doctors have for years been systematically intimidated or punished for speaking out on substandard patient care.

The Canadian Medical Association has called for a public inquiry, saying the problem is Canada-wide but most acute in Alberta.

Critics say the government should have used the existing Public Inquiries Act rather than draft an entirely new bill, but Horne said the legislation was needed to ensure the independence of the inquiry.

not sure why you're stumbling all over yourself to attempt to:

- deny the combined Wildrose/Liberal/NDP criticism and call for an inquiry (that stemmed from Sherman's allegations)

- deny the supporting health quality council review -

Alberta health council hears ‘disturbing’ stories from physicians --- Doctors who advocated for patients say their careers have suffered

- deny a significant thrust behind Bill 24 reflects upon allegations of, 'doctor intimidation'.

- deny the Alberta Medical Association's position on Bill 24, vis-a-vis the possible need for a separate public inquiry... over and above Bill 24

Specifically regarding the issue of physician intimidation, we are all awaiting the final report of the HQCA quality assurance review. If, however, it is then determined that a further investigation into intimidation is required, there are some practical considerations that must be addressed in selecting the best model for the investigation.

When the HQCA began its current review, Bill 24 did not exist and the council’s ability to appoint an inquiry panel could not have been contemplated. Therefore (and not withstanding Bill 24’s potential as a structure for future inquiries), in this very unique instance of physician intimidation, a public inquiry may be the appropriate route to take.

In saying so, there are things that should be done to reflect the special circumstances we face, some of them mimicking or reflecting the provisions of Bill 24. At minimum, we believe this should include:

- Choosing credible and well-qualified panelists.

- Making the scope of the inquiry very clear, articulating who and what shall be included.

- Ensuring true independence by supporting the public inquiry with appropriate budget and resources, including support staff who have never been involved with the current HQCA review

and, according to you, none of this has any association to or reflection upon the initial allegations made by Dr. Raj Sherman!

[fellowtraveller]

Redford promised legislation to deal with allegations that doctors have for years been systematically intimidated or punished for speaking out on substandard patient care.

The Canadian Medical Association has called for a public inquiry, saying the problem is Canada-wide but most acute in Alberta.

Critics say the government should have used the existing Public Inquiries Act rather than draft an entirely new bill, but Horne said the legislation was needed to ensure the independence of the inquiry.

There yo go again, citing vague allegations.

Redford spoke of a judicial inquiry during the leadership campaign, and after election as leader changed her mind to let the AHC inquiry carry on, an inquiry she had nothing to do with previously as she was not Premier or Minister in that portfolio.

The CMA is a heavily biased interest group that does not dictate government polciy or action policy anywhere except within their own organization. Their prime mandate is to advocate for their members, just like any union does.

The decision to upgrade the independence and power of the AHC is the right move, economically and institutionally. Of coure the 'critics' are the same choir that howls outrage with breakfast every morning, led by the utterly lame duck Brian Mason. When the legislative washroom runs short on paper towels Brian insists on a judicial inquiry. It is what he does.

deny the combined Wildrose/Liberal/NDP criticism and call for an inquiry (that stemmed from Sherman's allegations)

It appears that you are still stuck on 'Shermans allegations', which he has utterly failed to provide any actual information on. What would you expect from the Opposition but criticism? They are singularly and jointly desperate to hang onto the seats they have. Any issue will do, but this one is a stone cold loser because it is based on the musings of somebody who refuses to back up his mouth with facts of any kind. Who gives a shit if they call for an enquiry. When the AHC report is released, likjely this month, furhter action will stem from that. It at least will have some actual information.

according to you, none of this has any association to or reflection upon the initial allegations made by Dr. Raj Sherman!

Note that the AMA, another advocate group for its members, makes no mention of Sherman because like pretty much everybody else know they need to disassociate themselves from him. That does not mean that further inquiry is needed, but like the AMA most Albertans are content to wait for the AHC report and take it from there.

We'll see if the AMA still supports a fully public inquiry when doctors will be named and their pay will be discussed under oath and in front of cameras. If the AHC report indicates serious wrongdoing, I have no problem with whatever follows.

Sherman is an ambitious guy for years, but was not a happy camper when he did not get a cabinet post when first elected in 2008. He invented his own crisis, but at first it had resonance with people. His refusal to provide anything to back up his allegations caused his support to dwindle in the press, public and caucus. Now he is the big fish in a small pond, and about to be a big fish in a cup of tepid water. He'll have a fight on his hands to keep his own riding, the public isn't buying his baloney any more.

[waldo]

I have no dog in this particular Dr. Raj Sherman hunt... I bit at you originally labeling him an idiot. I have a personal interest in the health care debate (private vs. public) - interested enough to start reading a bit about Sherman and his allegations. I've stated now, several times, that he refuses to 'name names' until those affected persons give him the ok to do so - quite obviously, from his perspective, he is protecting others; others who still rely on their livelihood within the Alberta health care industry. He became the described health-care whistleblower that the PCs expunged from the party.

whether or not his motives or approach are acceptable to you, he came forward with his concerns, his allegations - those that reflect entirely upon intimidation of doctors, emergency room wait times... and deaths while on wait lists. Given what has come forward, particularly through the initial release from the 'Alberta Health Council (AHC)' review, it would seem Sherman has been vindicated, to some degree, on his claim of doctor intimidation.

for whatever your reasons, you choose to disallow any attachment of Sherman and his intimidation allegations to subsequent events, despite the/a focus of the AHC review, despite Premier Redford's specific references to intimidation as reflects upon the subsequent legislation in Bill 42, despite a statement from the Canadian Medical Association that speaks directly to intimidation, Bill 42 and a potential need for a separate public inquiry. Through all of that, you're not prepared to even throw Sherman a bone... a biscuit, even!

you also appear to place too much emphasis on the upcoming AHC report release... one of the expressed reasons for Bill 42 was to allow greater investigative powers for the AHC.

[TheNewTeddy]

Ah, Healthcare.

Reminds me of the 2000 federal election.

See, there was a top issue that election. Healthcare. IIRC, 40%-45% of Canadians said that it was their #1 issue, and something that would impact their vote.

Those same polls showed that more than any other party, Canadians trusted the NDP on healthcare, by a very wide margin.

So, the NDP ran on a healthcare heavy platform. Talking about healthcare at every opportunity.

Logic would dictate this could get them a majority... right?

Nope. They ended up with 8.5%, their worst election, by far, outside the 1993 catastrophe.

Canadians say they care about healthcare. Hell, we even love to talk about healthcare. We'll even tell people we'll vote on healthcare. But we never do, and this is one of the reasons why the ALP is in deep doggy-doo-doo.

[Newfoundlander]

With the Wildrose up in the polls again Alberta is set for their first exciting election in 20 years.

[TheNewTeddy]

Not with the Liberals and NDP at these levels.

Wildrose is competitive in both Rural Alberta and Calgary, and this is bad. Why? It means that 30% in the polls has to be spread among 2 areas of the province rather than being focused in 1. If the NDP for example was at 30%, they could reliably be counted on to win every last Edmonton seat, whereas Wildrose will have to fight to win seats in Calgary and Rural Alberta.

With the Liberals and NDP at ~13% each, it means there's a good chance the PC Party can win 2/3rds of Edmonton, and all they'd need to do from there is win 45% of the rest of the province to maintain a majority.

Plus. Poll averaging my friend. One poll does not an election decide. Averaged out, Wildrose is closer to 25% than 30%.

[Newfoundlander]

The Wildrose has still been increasing in recent weeks while the PCs have been falling. According to ThreeHundredEight.com the Wildrose's average support is 27%, which would likely mean they could elect 17 members, however their high range seat count is 50 seats.

[Newfoundlander]

With so many parties in Alberta it will be hard to defeat the PC Party because they still have a strong base, though I do think the Wildrose could do well in the campaign.

[TheNewTeddy]

Tories are still on track for a Majority, though a small one like in the early 90's.

[fellowtraveller]

Tories are still on track for a Majority, though a small one like in the early 90's.

Nope.

Large majority.

The Liberals had 26% in the last election, and the 13% now flatters them. They elected a certifiable idiot as leader and their few remaining MLAs mostly cannot stand to be in the same room as him. Where did their support go? Really simple- all to Redford. They did not just change parties and vote for her in the leadership campaign, they actively campaigned under the old strategm 'if you cannot beat them, join them'.

The NDP will gain nothing because their longtime leader Brian Mason is as charismatic as a turnip. They'd do far better with the whipsmart Rachel Notley as leader, but much better for the NDP means 4 seats instead of two.

That leaves Wildrose, and they had their momentum come to a screeching halt with the Tory leadership result. The irritant right of the Tory party is isolated now in Wildrose and has no influence at all with the Tories. The bitchers who joined Wildrose long ago can see they aren't going anywhere except for a few Calgary/rural ridings and the one thing Calgary insists upon is being in power(witness again the history of the Tory leadership since the late Klein years). They can whine in isolation, or come back to power in the old party. It won't be a difficult choice.

Less than 10 seats for Wildrose.

[Newfoundlander]

Nope.

Large majority.

The Liberals had 26% in the last election, and the 13% now flatters them. They elected a certifiable idiot as leader and their few remaining MLAs mostly cannot stand to be in the same room as him. Where did their support go? Really simple- all to Redford. They did not just change parties and vote for her in the leadership campaign, they actively campaigned under the old strategm 'if you cannot beat them, join them'.

The NDP will gain nothing because their longtime leader Brian Mason is as charismatic as a turnip. They'd do far better with the whipsmart Rachel Notley as leader, but much better for the NDP means 4 seats instead of two.

That leaves Wildrose, and they had their momentum come to a screeching halt with the Tory leadership result. The irritant right of the Tory party is isolated now in Wildrose and has no influence at all with the Tories. The bitchers who joined Wildrose long ago can see they aren't going anywhere except for a few Calgary/rural ridings and the one thing Calgary insists upon is being in power(witness again the history of the Tory leadership since the late Klein years). They can whine in isolation, or come back to power in the old party. It won't be a difficult choice.

Less than 10 seats for Wildrose.

The Wildrose have continued to gain support in recent months though, and I think it could go further in a campaign. It all depends on how Albertans feel about Redford trying to buy the election.

[fellowtraveller]

The Wildrose have continued to gain support in recent months though, and I think it could go further in a campaign. It all depends on how Albertans feel about Redford trying to buy the election.

Yeah whatever. Wildrose had a serious shot at flushing the Tories until Stelmach left in the way he left. They have no chance now.

[Newfoundlander]

Yeah whatever. Wildrose had a serious shot at flushing the Tories until Stelmach left in the way he left. They have no chance now.

Why?

[fellowtraveller]

Why?

Nothing personal, but I have explained the transition in detail earlier in this thread and others. I don't want to do it again.

Suffice it to say that Stelmach managed to purge the Tories of their right wing faction and into Wildrose, get a centrist leader in place, and add a big chunk of former Lib voters to Tory ranks. It was not all his doing of course, but he had to leave for that to happen. Wildrose is isolated on the right fringe and has no constituency left to capture.

[Newfoundlander]

Nothing personal, but I have explained the transition in detail earlier in this thread and others. I don't want to do it again.

Suffice it to say that Stelmach managed to purge the Tories of their right wing faction and into Wildrose, get a centrist leader in place, and add a big chunk of former Lib voters to Tory ranks. It was not all his doing of course, but he had to leave for that to happen. Wildrose is isolated on the right fringe and has no constituency left to capture.

I understand that they appear to have taken in a big chunk of the Liberal vote to create a more centrist party, but I still don't think it's impossible for Danielle Smith to move ahead. People thought Harper was very right wing but he still managed to get Progressive Cnservatives and Liberals to vote for his party. The PCs are clearly the frontrunners and would be tough to beat, but I think Smith could perform well during the campaign. I doubt any opposition party in Canada is as organized as the Wildrose, if they can bring that organization into their campaign I think they could do quite well.

[RNG]

But the scary thing is that just like at the federal level for how many years with the Conservatives and Reform splitting the vote and letting the Liberals waltz in, can the same thing happen in Alberta now. The official conservatives haven't been conservative since Klein left. I think Wildrose is, but just like Reform in it's early days it has a few too many wingnuts. And the Conservative have become a tired force. Could be trouble.

[Newfoundlander]

The only two parties with real support in Alberta are the PCs and the Wildrose.

[fellowtraveller]

I understand that they appear to have taken in a big chunk of the Liberal vote to create a more centrist party, but I still don't think it's impossible for Danielle Smith to move ahead. People thought Harper was very right wing but he still managed to get Progressive Cnservatives and Liberals to vote for his party. The PCs are clearly the frontrunners and would be tough to beat, but I think Smith could perform well during the campaign. I doubt any opposition party in Canada is as organized as the Wildrose, if they can bring that organization into their campaign I think they could do quite well.

Danielle Smth will move ahead of the NDP, who have two seats.

There is no 'appear' to have taken Liberal support, it is reality. And that is a clean, surgical switch: no Liberals went to Wildrose, and none to the generally moribund NDP either.

'People thought Harper was right wing'. Maybe in 2006, but by 2010 that is clearly untrue. The Federal Tories and Harper succeded in appearing as centrist, and that is what won them a majority.

'Quite well ' for Wildrose would be getting more than 10 seats out of 85.

[TheNewTeddy]

Liberals have gone Wildrose.

The proof is Ron Paul

(huh?)

In Virgnia, anti-Romney people were willing to vote for Paul, even the SoCons.

There are some (though not many) Liberals who likely switched to Wildrose just to oppose the PCs. It was on this very forum that someone, one of the very right-wing forum members, told me that he voted Ontario NDP because the Ontario PC's were "not right-wing enough". People do things like this. Not many though.

I also strongly suspect Wildrose to take between 16 and 30 seats.

Edited March 13, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[Newfoundlander]

New polling shows gains for the Liberals and Wildrose at the expense of the PCs. Wildrose are at 29% compared to 34% for the PCs.

[fellowtraveller]

The proof is Ron Paul

comedic genius

[Newfoundlander]

The PCs and Wildrose are now tied.

http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/the%20race%20is%20on%20ipsos%20poll%20shows%20pcs%20and%20wildrose%20neck%20and%20neck/6442608473/story.html

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The PCs and Wildrose are now tied.

http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/the%20race%20is%20on%20ipsos%20poll%20shows%20pcs%20and%20wildrose%20neck%20and%20neck/6442608473/story.html

This is surprising news. The PC's actually have a race to lose. New leaders from both parties mean that they are relative unknown qualities, and even so people are picking sides. If the electorate shows up to vote the PC's could very well be deposed.