Alberta Election 2012

[TheNewTeddy]

I'm wondering if it'd be out of place for me to create a thread for the coming Election in Alberta. A unified place to discuss polls and events etc, until the polls close; and then to discuss the results of course!!

Polls currently have the Tories up at 40%-45% while the opposition parties are battling with one another; with Wildrose having an edge in that department.

My personal projections are for a PC majority, with a Wildrose opposition.

[waldo]

excellent idea if only to allow some recollection of what Progressive Conservatives are about... and to also highlight ties between Harper Conservatives and the Wildrose!

[mentalfloss]

I'm confused.

Didn't they just have an election last year?

[fellowtraveller]

I'm wondering if it'd be out of place for me to create a thread for the coming Election in Alberta. A unified place to discuss polls and events etc, until the polls close; and then to discuss the results of course!!

Polls currently have the Tories up at 40%-45% while the opposition parties are battling with one another; with Wildrose having an edge in that department.

My personal projections are for a PC majority, with a Wildrose opposition.

Do you have a link for the poll.

Last poll in the Edmonton Journal had the Tories at 53%.

You're not exacty stepping out on a limb there with your projection, though you are right.

I project the Tories will win easily. Wildrose will win single digit seats. Liberals- road kill this time, even though they got 26% of vote last time they might get half now that a red Tory is leader. NDP will be looking for a purpose in life and a new leader.

Didn't they just have an election last year?

The Tories elected a new leader and new Premier, Alison Redford. The Liberals also got a new leader, Raj Sherman.

excellent idea if only to allow some recollection of what Progressive Conservatives are about... and to also highlight ties between Harper Conservatives and the Wildrose!

The ideological ties are much stronger between the federal PCs and the provincial PC party than with Wildrose. You'd understand it better if you spent some quiet time reviewing what happened last year with the departure of Stelmach, and why he left. I'll give you a hint: both parties moved to the middle. At the provincial level, that left Wildrose with the certainty of being an ineffective fringe, which makes many people but especially the PCs happy. By doing so, the PCs picked up tons of former Liberal votes, and also they purged their party of a splinter that held them back.

[waldo]

The ideological ties are much stronger between the federal PCs and the provincial PC party than with Wildrose.

Former Harper advisor to chair Alberta’s Wildrose campaign

Tom Flanagan, once among Stephen Harper’s most influential advisors, will chair the election campaign for Alberta’s Wildrose Party, an upstart hard-right movement aiming to unseat Alberta’s 40-year-old Progressive Conservative regime. Flanagan, a professor at the University of Calgary, has deep ties to the federal Conservative Party. Many view his prominent role with the Wildrose as a sign that federal party heavyweights are divided over who to support in the upcoming campaign.

[fellowtraveller]

Tom Flanagan, once among Stephen Harper’s most influential advisors

There you have it. The Toronto media will try to make a sure thing into something else, I guess it sells magazines in Ontario or something.

Really, before you embarass yourself, do some reading on what happened last year on two fronts: a)the circumstances of Stelmach leaving, which have their strong roots in how he arrived as leader the leadership campaigm , in which the 3 final candidates and the winner Redord were all red Tories.

They did the very thing that the federal Tories did earlier: move to the middle because that is where the votes are. Harper would be a fool to align with a fringe party like Wildrose that has no chance at all of winning and will struggle to get into double digit seat territory. There is no gain at all for him. he won't do it privately or publicly.

Flanagan was part of Reform, which has been absorbed by the CPC and is not really a factor anymore. Wildrose was akin to Reform, which is why Flanagan is involved. It won't matter on election night.

Wildrose actually purged themselves from the PCs, which saved the PCs from a messy struggle.

[waldo]

Really, before you embarass yourself, do some reading...

oh really!

It appears MPs and organizers and activists with the federal party in Calgary and other areas of Alberta are ignoring the spirit of the party provision as they campaign and organize for the Wildrose Alliance—a right-of-centre movement that has been likened to the defunct Reform Party—as it attempts to oust the governing Progressive Conservative government in the province.

.

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But political organizers for Immigration Minister Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.) aided Ms. Smith's leadership campaign last year, and the only member of the Wildrose Alliance so far elected to the Alberta Legislature represents a riding that is entirely within the boundaries of Mr. Harper's federal riding. His riding office is across an office hallway from Mr. Harper's constituency office. Conservatives say it is likely the Wildrose representative, Paul Hindman, was elected with the support of members of the federal party in Mr. Harper's riding.

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Mr. Anders, who openly supports the Wildrose Alliance and describes himself as a friend of Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, has been supported by the federal Conservative Party's governing council

by the by, I understand Harper's wife once helped in a Danielle Smith election campaign... and don't forget that cushy display between Harper and Smith during last years Calgary stampede - it's all about the optics, don't ya know!

in any case, why are you so jacked-up about suggestions/optics of Harper Conservative ties to the Wildrose? Is there a... problem?

[Newfoundlander]

Harper's federal MPs from Alberta are supposedly very divided on which party they support.

[TheNewTeddy]

This is the reverse of the Ontario PC Party in the 90's. The caucus and membership are divided.

[fellowtraveller]

in any case, why are you so jacked-up about suggestions/optics of Harper Conservative ties to the Wildrose? Is there a... problem?

You raised the topic, why not asnwer your own question: why are you so jacked up at what you see as Harpers government ripped asunder by Wildrose?

You're dreaming. No, you are wet dreaming.

Liberals had 26% last election and got 9 seats. Wildrose would be thrilled to do that well this time. They won't though, because they will pick up zero of the Liberal votes available.

[mentalfloss]

Former Harper advisor to chair Alberta’s Wildrose campaign

I thought this was hilarious as well.

I have a feeling Wildrose will become much less "wild" to grab some votes.

[TheNewTeddy]

You raised the topic, why not asnwer your own question: why are you so jacked up at what you see as Harpers government ripped asunder by Wildrose?

You're dreaming. No, you are wet dreaming.

Liberals had 26% last election and got 9 seats. Wildrose would be thrilled to do that well this time. They won't though, because they will pick up zero of the Liberal votes available.

I'm not certain you are familiar with the type of voters in Alberta that vote Liberal. There are a lot of "I'm a right-winger, but not extreme, but I'm opposed to the PC Party, and I'll never vote NDP" types that will go Wildrose. This might only be 4% or so of the total electorate, but it's enough to make a close second into a narrow victory in various seats.

[Leader Circle]

I think the closer to the election we will see wild swings in the polls. If the scandals following the PC's catch up to them, we might see a shock come election day!

[fellowtraveller]

I'm not certain you are familiar with the type of voters in Alberta that vote Liberal. There are a lot of "I'm a right-winger, but not extreme, but I'm opposed to the PC Party, and I'll never vote NDP" types that will go Wildrose. This might only be 4% or so of the total electorate, but it's enough to make a close second into a narrow victory in various seats.

No, that is utter bullshit.

The Liberals in Alberta were the same left -of- centre-but-not-NDP typically found all over Canada. Many of them came from elsewhere in the country, like so many Albertans in the last generation or so. The right of centre types within PC left to form Wildrose, and a whole bunch are mnoving back to PC now that they see they have no hope at all of coming anywhere near being anything of significance. The proof, again, of that is what happened with Ted Morton this time in the leadership race as compared to what happened with Morton in the last one.

Premier Alison Redford owes her somewhat surprising leadership win in part to disaffected Liberals who actively worked on her campaign selling memberships. They've given up on the Liberal Party of Alberta, a point driven sadly but firmly home when the Liberals elected a certifiable idiot as their new leader. It is the legacy of Stelmach, who knew that if the PCS moved to the middle with a new leader they would grab many Liberals, and they had already purged the party of the right. If Gary Mar had been elected, the result and direction of the PCS would be the same: hard to the middle, the safe ground vacated by a bankrupt Liberal Party.

[waldo]

The right of centre types within PC left to form Wildrose

were recent iterations of the PCs actually... right-wing conservative or centrist? If nothing else, if one accepts your premise that, 'right-of-centre types bolted for the Wildrose', that suggests the PCs are a centrist party - which you actually acknowledge. Notwithstanding the many digs labeling them as, 'Redford Liberals'. In any case, I'm quite satisfied to have you highlight the movement of far-right members to the Wildrose... you know, the party closely aligned with the federal Harper Conservatives.

... the Liberals elected a certifiable idiot as their new leader.

how so? I read he's quite knowledgeable in terms of raising concerns over health care... stands to reason since he's a practicing emergency doctor, ya think?

[fellowtraveller]

were recent iterations of the PCs actually... right-wing conservative or centrist? If nothing else, if one accepts your premise that, 'right-of-centre types bolted for the Wildrose', that suggests the PCs are a centrist party - which you actually acknowledge. Notwithstanding the many digs labeling them as, 'Redford Liberals'. In any case, I'm quite satisfied to have you highlight the movement of far-right members to the Wildrose... you know, the party closely aligned with the federal Harper Conservatives.

how so? I read he's quite knowledgeable in terms of raising concerns over health care... stands to reason since he's a practicing emergency doctor, ya think?

What premise? Where do you think the Wildrose support came from? Delivered in the night in black helicopters? Why wouldn't I acknowledge the obvious, a reality you are apparently only up to parrotting, not discussing. I understand your dismay, it takes some starch out of your rednceck land stereotyping.

The PCS have moved hard to the center. all three leadership finalists were Red Tories, including Redford.

Nice move really, it simulataneously moves the party more to the fertile middle, flushes the noisy right splinter, cuts the gonads off the Libs and NDP though they had already done that to themselves to a certain extent. That was mainly Stelmachs work. It kind of reminds me of what Harper did.........

Your hopes and aspirations for Alberta will not be realized this election.

Your ignorance of Sherman and his recent history is not surprising.

[Argus]

Haven't followed Alberta politics a lot, but did note a few recent columns in the Post which are highly critical of the PCs. One of them called the last budget Alberta's first NDP budget, and another called the PCs "faux conservatives" and pointed out how they're big government, big spending, big deficit liberals frittering away the oil wealth and saving nothing for the future.

[fellowtraveller]

Haven't followed Alberta politics a lot, but did note a few recent columns in the Post which are highly critical of the PCs. One of them called the last budget Alberta's first NDP budget, and another called the PCs "faux conservatives" and pointed out how they're big government, big spending, big deficit liberals frittering away the oil wealth and saving nothing for the future.

But how can it be an NDP budget without big tax increases and shrill cries of outrage about... everything?

[fellowtraveller]

another called the PCs "faux conservatives"

That made me laugh a lot, though ignorance of anything in Canada west of London is standard in our national media . Politics in Alberta have not been conservative since Social Credit vanished a generation or two ago. Most of the people here now are from other provinces or countries.

[waldo]

I thought Wildrose support was grassroots... all those disgruntled types clamoring for "real conservatism"!

as for your suggestion of "taking the starch out", I've opined several times that the ProgressiveCs appear to govern like Liberals... at least LiberalLites. That's hardly me, as you said, projecting upon an Alberta redneck stereotype, hey? To suggest Redford is a "Red Tory" flies in the face of criticism she's received... hey now, apparently there was a recent budget to reference, ya think?

as for the LiberalDocPartyLeader, where's the beef? From what I read he made an accusation and refused to, without consent, 'name names'... subsequently, that consent was forthcoming and Sherman was vindicated. Of course he's rumpled the PCs set ways over Health Care - I understand that's why they turfed him from the party. But again, where's the beef?

[waldo]

Haven't followed Alberta politics a lot, but did note a few recent columns in the Post which are highly critical of the PCs. One of them called the last budget Alberta's first NDP budget, and another called the PCs "faux conservatives" and pointed out how they're big government, big spending, big deficit liberals frittering away the oil wealth and saving nothing for the future.

ya, I read that same NP column... and yet, somehow, we have suggestion of the leader being a, "Red Tory" - go figure.

[waldo]

Politics in Alberta have not been conservative since Social Credit vanished a generation or two ago.

and yet you vociferously... and unsuccessfully, challenged my highlighting the ties between Harper Conservatives and Wildrose...

[fellowtraveller]

To suggest Redford is a "Red Tory" flies in the face of criticism she's received

How so? Red implies left. So was Gary Mar, her main opponent in the leadership campaign. So too was Doug Horner, to a slightly lesser extent.

The right wing PC candidates like Morton and Orman got thoroughly smoked.

She is a Red Tory. She has and will take a big chunk of the 26% Libweral vote from the last election. It will easily and neatly replace the Wildrose vote.

as for the LiberalDocPartyLeader, where's the beef? From what I read he made an accusation and refused to, without consent, 'name names'... subsequently, that consent was forthcoming and Sherman was vindicated. Of course he's rumpled the PCs set ways over Health Care - I understand that's why they turfed him from the party. But again, where's the beef?

Indeed, where is the beef?. Sherman did not name names because he didn't really have anyand as a result he was turfed from caucus. He spent months looking for a home, and ended up with the utterly sadsack Liberlas, In doing so, he alienated what little power they have, MLAs like Blakeman wouldn't cross the street for him now. He is just the latest in an incrasingly crappy series of leaders. They had a real shot at power with Lawrence Decore in the 90s, but they pissed it all away.

Oh, and the PCS ways over health care spending have consisted in recent years of big, big capital injections and plenty of operating money while constantly reorganizing- note the ongoing cash in the recent budget your yourself reference. Alberta has the highest per capita spending in Canada both for operating costs and capital investment. And that is our money, not yours. They kicked him out because he was and is an idiot. They asked him to prove he was an idiot and he obliged.

[waldo]

red/blue brain freeze... juggling too many things today! In any case, a few Alberta localized political blogs seem to suggest this article highlights a vindication of Raj Sherman - whatever:

[fellowtraveller]

red/blue brain freeze... juggling too many things today! In any case, a few Alberta localized political blogs seem to suggest this article highlights a vindication of Raj Sherman - whatever:

Lovely bit of CBC journalism, from a non-case dredged up from 11 years ago. Nobody knows what the result of the lawsuit was, and the plaintiffs lawyer states plainly there is no link between Sherman and the plaintiff.

The article goes in to detail filings by both sides with absolutely no point at all, since the case never got to court and all of it therefore not relevant.

Typical CBC, and you call it 'vindication'. There is scarcely a fact to be found in that 'reportage', all reported in breathless detail as it it meant a thing. It doesn't.

Sherman is already a joke here, a political footnote .

But do carry on, you are mildly entertaining.