Realistically, how big a majority could Layton get?

Harry · May 1, 2011

With the recent Quebec polling I'm seriously wondering if Harper will be able to retain one seat in Quebec.

jbg · May 1, 2011

Right, that's why the NDP crowds are growing and growing with each passing minute. But contine with your silliness by all means.

Layton greeted by large crowd, dismisses allegation

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+greeted+large+crowd+dismisses+allegation/4704538/story.html

I did not make an issue out of the house of pleasure visit.

Ottawavalleyboy · May 1, 2011

The NDP are back down to below 30% and Conservatives at 38.9% per Nanos. Layton cant win the election obviously, it will be interesting where to see the seats fall in Ontario and BC. Both seem to have a lot of vote splitting between the ndp and conservatives.

Harry · May 1, 2011

The NDP are back down to below 30% and Conservatives at 38.9% per Nanos. Layton cant win the election obviously, it will be interesting where to see the seats fall in Ontario and BC. Both seem to have a lot of vote splitting between the ndp and conservatives.

Cherry-picking polls won't help desperate Consevatives.

This doesn't look like it is going to help the Conservatives either now that there is a police investigation into the matter. Gee I wonder which sleazy political party is close to Sun News. :rolleyes:

Layton dismisses allegation as western tour wraps with massive rally

Meanwhile, the Ontario Provincial Police opened an investigation into whether evidence was leaked about the incident.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+dismisses+allegation+western+tour+wraps+with+massive+rally/4704758/story.html#ixzz1L4NgTwJB

http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+dismisses+allegation+western+tour+wraps+with+massive+rally/4704758/story.html#ixzz1L4NgTwJB

Edited May 1, 2011 by Harry

Ottawavalleyboy · May 1, 2011

Cherry-picking polls won't help desperate Consevatives.

This doesn't look like it is going to help the Conservatives either now that there is a police investigation into the matter. Gee I wonder which sleazy political party is close to Sun News.

Layton dismisses allegation as western tour wraps with massive rally

Meanwhile, the Ontario Provincial Police opened an investigation into whether evidence was leaked about the incident.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+dismisses+allegation+western+tour+wraps+with+massive+rally/4704758/story.html#ixzz1L4NgTwJB

http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+dismisses+allegation+western+tour+wraps+with+massive+rally/4704758/story.html#ixzz1L4NgTwJB

Cherry picking polls? Nanos research is one of the best. Which polls are you looking at? You dont actually thing Leyton can win this do you? If so I will have some of what your smoking.

Edited May 1, 2011 by Ottawavalleyboy

CANADIEN · May 1, 2011

Cherry-picking polls won't help desperate Consevatives.

The NDP is still not winning this election.

Harry · May 1, 2011

Thanks for sharing.

Ottawavalleyboy · May 1, 2011

And to be clear I just dont want the ndp to have any power. I am not a fan of the liberals but would take a sudden surge in the red and Harper getting ousted over ndp winning power.

Harry · May 1, 2011

Looking good for possible Prime Minister-elect Jack Layton.

NDP poised for breakthrough

Don Davies, the NDP incumbent in Vancouver—Kingsway, said he believes the upward trend has been consistent enough to hold at the ballot box on Monday.

“I think the momentum has been building over a long period of the campaign,” Davies said outside the rally on Saturday. “There are daily tracking polls that are just trending up. I don’t see that changing in the next 48 hours, something that has built over the last three weeks.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983503--ndp-poised-for-breakthrough-wary-of-last-minute-heartbreak?bn=1

Edited May 1, 2011 by Harry

Harry · May 1, 2011

Reality is setting in that a changing of the guard is coming for corporate Canada!

NDP's fiery finance critic Tom Mulcair poised to take centre stage

Hes whip smart, aggressive and hot-tempered in both official languages. Hes also poised to become a major player in Canadian politics.

Expect to hear a lot more from Thomas Mulcair should the NDP, as polls suggest, ride a wave of support from Quebec to form the Official Opposition or even government.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndps-fiery-finance-critic-tom-mulcair-poised-to-take-centre-stage/article2004995/

Edited May 1, 2011 by Harry

Harry · May 1, 2011

Layton's correct, what a waste.

Harper a raté sa chance, dit Layton

Après 50 ans d'existence, tout indique que le NPD surpassera lundi le meilleur résultat électoral de son histoire, soit 43 sièges en 1988. Et ce n'est pas parce que le message du parti a changé, a reconnu Jack Layton ce midi à Vancouver.

Ce sont plutôt les autres partis qui ont déçu les électeurs. Particulièrement sur l'économie et l'éthique. «Stephen Harper a raté sa chance», a-t-il lancé après un important rassemblement devant plus de 1500 personnes. Peut-être le plus gros de la campagne, à égalité avec ceux à l'Olympia de Montréal et à Saskatoon.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/30/01-4395006-harper-a-rate-sa-chance-dit-layton.php

jbg · May 1, 2011

And to be clear I just dont want the ndp to have any power. I am not a fan of the liberals but would take a sudden surge in the red and Harper getting ousted over ndp winning power.

I suspect you'll get your way, this time. I also suspect this election has a lot of the "Spirit of 1993" for the Liberals this time, and the NDP will wind up running a merged party, albeit somewhat moderated in their views.

Evening Star · May 2, 2011

Think Bin Laden's death could possibly make any difference to the election?

Smallc · May 2, 2011

Think Bin Laden's death could possibly make any difference to the election?

I think it could deliver Harper a majority. I think I'd like to revise my NDP seat count down to about 75.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Smallc

RNG · May 2, 2011

Think Bin Laden's death could possibly make any difference to the election?

For Obama, maybe, for us, no.

Smallc · May 2, 2011

I say that it will because Layton doesn't support the missions (one of the things that made it hard for me to vote NDP). Harper does.

CANADIEN · May 2, 2011

Think Bin Laden's death could possibly make any difference to the election?

12 hours before the polls open? Unlikely to make a big difference.

Bonam · May 2, 2011

I say that it will because Layton doesn't support the missions (one of the things that made it hard for me to vote NDP). Harper does.

True. But it's kind of too late for the Conservatives to get a message out saying that they're support for these missions has been vindicated and I don't know if this distinction between Harper and Layton is fresh or prominent in voter's minds.

Smallc · May 2, 2011

True. But it's kind of too late for the Conservatives to get a message out saying that they're support for these missions has been vindicated and I don't know if this distinction between Harper and Layton is fresh or prominent in voter's minds.

There doesn't need to be a big movement....there only needs to be a small uptick in Ontario and BC. We'll have to see. The trick for Harper is to not emphasize difference here, but to sound prime ministerial and non partisan. If he can pull it off, and enough people are watching on the west coast and read it in the paper tomorrow, it could give him what he needs.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Smallc

cybercoma · May 2, 2011

I say that it will because Layton doesn't support the missions (one of the things that made it hard for me to vote NDP). Harper does.

Yet, Bin Laden wasn't killed by the regular forces carrying out those missions. It was the JSOC forces, which I believe are led by the CIA.

Smallc · May 2, 2011

Yet, Bin Laden wasn't killed by the regular forces carrying out those missions. It was the JSOC forces, which I believe are led by the CIA.

That's true...there's also just a feeling I have...I have this feeling that people are getting nervous about an NDP government, even if the polls don't show it...it's simply something I can feel, but I can't pinpoint it.

Bonam · May 2, 2011

There doesn't need to be a big movement....there only needs to be a small uptick in Ontario and BC. We'll have to see.

True. I am doubtful though. Even if the message got out, it seems like people whose election choices would be influenced/changed by news of success in terrorist-hunting would probably already be pretty solid Tory voters. I mean, of the available party's foreign policies, the cons clearly make the hardest stand against terrorism, Islamic extremism, etc, and if someone's main issue is foreign policy, well, they'd already long since be decided. Not to mention, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Canada had any role in getting bin Laden, so the credit that Harper could try to take would be very limited indeed.

Harry · May 2, 2011

Bin Laden's death will be perceived as good news by most Canadians, and they also associate Jack Layton as a happy guy and good news guy, compared to miserable Harper, so the good news of Bin Laden's death will be associated with Layton and will help the NDP tomorrow.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Harry

Smallc · May 2, 2011

True. I am doubtful though. Even if the message got out, it seems like people whose election choices would be influenced/changed by news of success in terrorist-hunting would probably already be pretty solid Tory voters.

There are many Liberals that will think twice when they start to think about this and other things....trust me...I'm one. I've already voted though, so too late.

Evening Star · May 2, 2011

True. But it's kind of too late for the Conservatives to get a message out saying that they're support for these missions has been vindicated and I don't know if this distinction between Harper and Layton is fresh or prominent in voter's minds.

I think the distinction might be prominent in Quebec, where much of the newfound NDP support is concentrated.

--

It's not that Canada deserves credit for this. It's that fighting in Afghanistan at all could seem less thoroughly futile to some people.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Evening Star