Realistically, how big a majority could Layton get?

[punked]

A little perspective, if 2008 were on Monday:

Harper would need 8,080 more votes for a majority.

Ignatief would need 405,361 more votes for a majority.

Layton would need 1,164,829 more votes for a majority.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ah9DcIZKQWcUdHR0ZUc1ZDNKY1pacllqREZ0SmJfWkE&hl=en&authkey=CLKy-JQM

That was done in my spare time on a slow work day, please no citations for lapses of dyslexia and such. It should be pretty on point but I wouldn't try to vouch for 100%.

It is much Easer when you put it this way.

Layton would need to win 400,000 votes and have Harper lose 400,000 votes. Now it makes sense.

[Handsome Rob]

It is much Easer when you put it this way.

Layton would need to win 400,000 votes and have Harper lose 400,000 votes. Now it makes sense.

I don't agree. That would only make sense if Layton were gunning for Tory riding's alone.

Layton's top 20 list includes 11 Tory, 8 Liberal and 1 Bloc. A lot of things have to go miracle on 34th st to even start to consider a majority.

[punked]

I don't agree. That would only make sense if Layton were gunning for Tory riding's alone.

Layton's top 20 list includes 11 Tory, 8 Liberal and 1 Bloc. A lot of things have to go miracle on 34th st to even start to consider a majority.

Ok Gain 200,000 Conservatives and 400,000 Liberals the Math is swing math so you don't grow your vote you move it with growth.

[Harry]

Harper's Theme Song

[Harry]

Anthem for the NDP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l6aY7XEL_w

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

So far, so good.

Jack Layton’s next steps

He has created what Ian Capstick, his former spokesman, said are the main predicators of a win. He has MPs elected in all parts of the country to act as “coattails” for others, and he has convinced some Canadians – especially those in Quebec – that his candidates can emerge on top.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jack-laytons-next-steps/article2001587/

[jbg]

The orange wave has turned into a tsunami now rocketing across the country.

Tsunami? Complete with Japanese-style destruction?

[Harry]

Tsunami? Complete with Japanese-style destruction?

Maybe for you, but not for the average working family.

[Harry]

Layton is taking a big bite out of Cons support in BC.

Will NDP's "Orange Crush" flatten Conservatives?

http://news.google.ca/news/search?aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=ca&hl=en&q=ndp+layton

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[cybercoma]

Harper is now comparing Layton to Bob Rae. This is great news! The more desperate Harper looks and the more he attacks Layton, the better Layton will do. What a crazy campaign!

[Vancouverite]

I think people are just parking their votes with the NDP, because no one respects Ignatieff. That said, if the LIberals don't find someone better - after they turf Iggy - they may become a footnote.

[Harry]

Layton's an interesting fella, and if elected prime minister will do a good job.

Why Layton’s fit for office

There is this: One of the necessary preconditions to “succeeding” is having a new and better federal government that francophone Quebeckers see themselves in, and that is working on priorities they support.

There is this: In the 1998 reference case, the Supreme Court wrote the rulebook on any future referendum, should there be one but hopefully there won’t. Both then-Quebec premier Lucien Bouchard and then-prime minister Jean Chrétien welcomed this ruling at the time.

And there is this: Fewer Bloc MPs in Parliament is good for Quebec and good for the rest of Canada. Working to re-involve francophone Quebecers in the governance of Canada is what Canadians hope and expect an aspirant for prime minister to do. Acknowledging this issue, as Mr. Layton did when asked (as anyone campaigning in Quebec inevitably will be) is respectful of the views of francophone Quebeckers, and is therefore good nation-building.

Mr. Layton is making a remarkable contribution to Canada in this election by reaching out successfully to French-speaking Quebeckers – something that has eluded all other national leaders in Canada for over twenty years. He has addressed these issues responsibly and with due respect for Canada’s unity, our laws, our democracy and our respect for each other.

That’s what people who are fit for office do.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/brian-topp/why-laytons-fit-for-office/article2000836/

[Harry]

Layton sure knows the drill - he is on one hell of a roll. Where it stops, nobody knows.

Layton promotes 'change' in final campaign push

"Bringing change to Ottawa isn't up to me. It's up to you," he appealed to supporters during stops in both Winnipeg and Edmonton. "It starts with a vote, your vote, and so I want each and every one of you to ensure that you're there on May 2."

In a pair of stump speeches he urged supporters "not to leave a single thing to chance" and to do their part to convince friends and relatives to get out and vote.

His comments come amid a report from Elections Canada that more than two million Canadians had cast ballots during three days of advanced polling.

It marked a 34.5-per-cent increase from 2008 when 1.5 million Canadians voted in advanced polls.

Chief electoral officer Marc Mayrand described the results as "higher than expected."

Meanwhile, a new poll this week put Layton just five points behind Tory leader Stephen Harper while Liberals struggle with 22-per-cent support nationally.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+promotes+change+final+campaign+push/4683409/story.html#ixzz1KpTDRCiM

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+promotes+change+final+campaign+push/4683409/story.html

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Roger Steele]

In some ways the polls for this election take me back to the mid to late 80s. The NDP had a very good showing in the polls but come election day things didn't develop. In the 80s the NDPs weakness was in leadership. The country was in turmoil, unemployment was high, inflation was high. Trudeau had run his course and driven the country into the dirt. Had the NDP had a strong leader I believe they could have at least attained a minority government. Ed Broadbent had several years of leadership behind him but I don't think Canadians had enough faith in him to elect him into power. It really wasn't that Broadbent himself was weak he just couldn't compete with the leadership of the two main parties.

I don't know that it would be all that bad to have the NDP have a very strong showing. While I am not an NDP supporter I would sooner have them in power than the Liberals. This is sending a very strong message to the rest of the Federal parties that Canadians have had enough and want a change of policy in Ottawa.

I personally don't see them winning more seats than the Conservatives but I believe it will be very close. The big losers will be the Liberals in most of Canada, primarily due to Ignatieff. As others have stated in Quebec the Bloc will take a hit. I May be totally off base but I think the glow is off the Bloc in Quebec due to a shift in the generations. The Bloc is devoted to the interests and sovereignty of Quebec. I think they may be comparable to the Alliance party in the west. They made a statement, they were heard and made good headways, but I believe the younger generation wants representation in the governing party in Ottawa.

I think Stephen Harper's minority Government has done an excellent job of managing Canada's interests over the past few years and has brought Canada to a position that is envied by most of our international partners. If the Conservatives do not form the next government I would far sooner have Jack Layton representing Canada on the international stage than Micheal Ignatieff.

I see the Conservatives getting about 10-20 more seats than the NDP and the Liberals taking a real thrashing.

[Harry]

A Liberal's lament. Kinsella is dead-on Harper & Ignatieff are just too right-wing for most Canadians. Time to throw the bums out.

KCCCC Day 34: Orange Crush – ingredients and nutritional information

Figuring out what the Libs and Cons did wrong is easy. And, one thing I will predict – entire forests will be felled, soon enough, to print up articles, essays and books which will analyze the reasons why the Reformatories (as even conservatives agree) and the Grits (in particular) did badly. But the Dippers? Wacko Jacko? That’s a lot harder to understand. Here are a few of my suggested ingredients in the Orange Crush.

Jack Layton is likeable (and has few calories). He’s Taliban Jack, he’s Wacko Jacko, he’s all those things right-wing media call him – but he’s also the most likeable of all the federal leaders. Polls have been showing that for years, now they’re showing it at precisely the best possible moment for him. If the campaign has devolved into a great big HOAG contest – that is, “who is the one who is a Hell Of A Guy” – Layton wins, hands down. Iggy is quite likeable in person, in my opinion, but loses in a televised HOAG showdown with Jack. Harper’s people, meanwhile, had decided likeability didn’t matter – a decision they will come to regret, profoundly. Sixty-five per cent of the country dislike Stephen Harper. They needed to fix that, and they didn’t. Too late now!

His party’s policies are irrelevant (and contain ingredients that are very bad for you). They have some not-bad policies – and they have some that are plain nutty (like reopening the Constitution, or multiple billions in promises that Jacko doesn’t know how to pay for). But, in the main, his party’s policies don’t matter. Canadians have decided they want to vote for someone they like, not for someone with the best policies. Jack, they like. Harper, especially, they don’t. The policy analysis of many Canadians: Harper and Ignatieff are too right-wing. I’m voting for the only guy who isn’t right wing.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/kcccc-day-34-orange-crush-ingredients-and-nutritional-information/

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Due to the rumours started by the Cons that some Libs may cross the floor and join the Cons after Monday's vote, voters in their respective ridings would be well advised to get "I'm no David Emerson" signed commitments from Liberal candidates to ensure that Liberal candidates don't consider misleading Canadian voters before Monday's vote.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Due to the rumours that some Libs may cross the floor and join the Cons, voters in their respective ridings would be well advised to get "I'm no David Emerson" signed commitments from Liberal candidates to ensure that Liberal candidates don't consider misleading Canadian voters before Monday's vote.

By the same token, if the caucus was to split, the others would likely join the NDP.

I'm thinking that's a nightmare scenario that I do not necessarily see happening.

[Harry]

Who else is sick of the lies coming out of Harper's mouth? It is because of Harper that gas prices are higher than they should be.

Layton blames Harper for high gas prices

Layton responded by saying gas prices are already too high and said Harper is to blame for some of it because his government subsidized big oil companies and helped to bring the harmonized sales tax to Ontario, which increased the price of gasoline by eight per cent last summer.

“These gas companies are gouging Canadians right now,” said Layton. “I don’t accept this analysis that is being offered, that the big polluters should suddenly be justified to raise prices . . . If you look at their own books, they are already booking the cost of a cap-and-trade system and they’re dealing with it elsewhere.”

The Nova Scotia government began regulating gas prices in 2006 under pressure from the provincial NDP, when it was in opposition, and Layton said his party has discussed it before and remains open to the idea.

Layton said he will start with an ombudsman and see how that goes.

“I think with an ombudsman’s office exposing what is going on, raising those serious questions, perhaps suggesting regulatory or legislative changes through that ongoing scrutiny,” Layton said.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982133--layton-blames-harper-for-high-gas-prices

[ToadBrother]

Who else is sick of the lies coming out of Harper's mouth? It is because of Harper that gas prices are higher than they should be.

You are aware that fuel prices have been rising everywhere, right? And do you think killing energy subsidies and thus undermining Canada's energy independence and exports would somehow bring prices down?

Edited April 28, 2011 by ToadBrother

[wyly]

I honestly can't tell if he just isn't smart enough to understand the things he is talking about or if he is just a complete, utter troll.

My opinion of him keeps shifting between these two things.

you forgot the third option "all of the above"

[wyly]

You are aware that fuel prices have been rising everywhere, right? And do you think killing energy subsidies and thus undermining Canada's energy independence and exports would somehow bring prices down?

I have issues with speculators driving up the price of oil because of a little shootup in Libya whose oil production has already been replaced by saudi arabia...these frikin' pirates are screwing with our economy causing inflation and hardship for everyone...

[ToadBrother]

I have issues with speculators driving up the price of oil because of a little shootup in Libya whose oil production has already been replaced by saudi arabia...these frikin' pirates are screwing with our economy causing inflation and hardship for everyone...

Those "frikin' pirates" are driving up global market prices on oil. This isn't something any individual nation can hope to solve, and I'm not even sure whole bunches of nations are capable of doing it. What I am sure of is that, as unpalatable as corporate welfare for oil companies may seem, developing our reserves is the best defence against volatility in global energy markets.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I have issues with speculators driving up the price of oil because of a little shootup in Libya whose oil production has already been replaced by saudi arabia...these frikin' pirates are screwing with our economy causing inflation and hardship for everyone...

Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, just had the nerve to say that it wasn't the speculators' fault.

Countries need to take drastic actions on these thieves.

[cybercoma]

I'm glad our government is helping out these oil companies with subsidies taken from my paycheque. That's awfully generous of them.

[Harry]

You are aware that fuel prices have been rising everywhere, right? And do you think killing energy subsidies and thus undermining Canada's energy independence and exports would somehow bring prices down?

Ever hear of the HST? Voters in BC and Ontario have. And we could have a two-tier price system for fuel. One for internal and one for export. There are lots of alternatives to giving the oil companies carte blanche to do whatever they want and not pay for environmental impact, etc. What about the heritage fund?

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry