Realistically, how big a majority could Layton get?

[Harry]

The orange wave has turned into a tsunami now rocketing across the country.

With the wind at their backs, the NDP has the momentum to possibly win a majority government?

Will it happen?

Latest poll is showing the NDP could be statistically tied with the Cons 31% - 34%

Craig Oliver just said on CTV that the Cons have confirmed privately the NDP is making huge strides in BC.

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

[nittanylionstorm07]

I'm going with 101-125. They won't get a majority, but they are in the running to get a plurality or tie the Tories.

Which, if the NDP and Tories tie in seat counts, I wonder who gets asked first to form the government?

[ToadBrother]

I'm going with 101-125. They won't get a majority, but they are in the running to get a plurality or tie the Tories.

Which, if the NDP and Tories tie in seat counts, I wonder who gets asked first to form the government?

Traditionally, the incumbent Prime Minister always gets first kick at the can where no one has achieved a majority. That's why, last year in the UK elections, Gordon Brown, despite Labour dropping below the Tories in seat counts, had the first opportunity to put a government together.

[Shady]

Realistically, he can't get a majority. Not even close. He'll be lucky to finish in 2nd place. And even that's not a given with a week left.

[Shady]

Why isn't there an option for less than 51 seats? There should be one if there's an option for a 160 seats.

[ToadBrother]

Realistically, he can't get a majority. Not even close. He'll be lucky to finish in 2nd place. And even that's not a given with a week left.

You keep praying to the Conservative Gods In The Sky that that's true. I think Harper will win a minority, but he's likely facing an NDP opposition.

[ToadBrother]

Why isn't there an option for less than 51 seats? There should be one if there's an option for a 160 seats.

There's not an option for Shady getting a pink elephant either.

[Harry]

Look at the panic in their eyes.

Unfortunately for Ivison he doesn't really have a good grasp on what is going on out there. It is now way too late to turn back this orange crush now, as we are moving into the royal wedding coverage. The right has blown it big time.

It's over for Harper folks. Nobody knows whether or not the NDP will get a majority at this point but it is definitely over for Harper.

The Tories don’t need to panic, but they should be afraid

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/john-ivison-the-tories-dont-need-to-panic-but-they-should-be-afraid/

[Shady]

Nobody knows whether or not the NDP will get a majority

Actually, pretty much everyone knows there's no way in hell the NDP can win a majority. Unless the new threshold for majority status is 60 some odd seats.

[ToadBrother]

Look at the panic in their eyes.

Unfortunately for Ivison he doesn't really have a good grasp on what is going on out there. It is now way too late to turn back this orange crush now, as we are moving into the royal wedding coverage. The right has blown it big time.

It's over for Harper folks. Nobody knows whether or not the NDP will get a majority at this point but it is definitely over for Harper.

I think his critique made more sense three or four days ago. The problem here is that everyone; pollsters, analysts and pundits, are behind the line on this. It's possible that the NDP may have already hit the highwater mark and will either hold, with the potential for vote-splitting in the Tories' favor, or it they could keep moving up, and threaten Tory seat counts. There were suggestions all along that BC, for instance, was going to be a battleground, and it could very well be that that is a potential area of threat to the Tories.

We can say confidently, I think, that a Tory majority is out of the question unless the mathematics leads to a huge amount of vote splitting, but that would have to be huge if they hold at 35%. We're almost certain to have a Tory minority returned.

[Keepitsimple]

Good luck Harry.....but you forgot to provide an option for 0-50 seats. I'm sure it was just an oversight.

[ToadBrother]

Good luck Harry.....but you forgot to provide an option for 0-50 seats. I'm sure it was just an oversight.

I think that's pretty unlikely. NDP support will firm up. The Liberals and Bloc will be the big losers, and Harper will have a reduced minority.

[Shady]

I think that's pretty unlikely. NDP support will firm up. The Liberals and Bloc will be the big losers, and Harper will have a reduced minority.

I think a less than 51 seat option is just as likely as a 160 seat option. But one's included and one isn't. Gee, I wonder why?

[Keepitsimple]

It really IS very interesting. If the Tories hold on in Quebec but lose a few seats in BC, they'll make up for it by gaining a few seats in the Maritimes, certainly Newfoundland/Lab. That means it will come down to Ontario where the Conservatives are trending higher. The NDP might pick up a few votes from disaffected Ontario Liberals who have lost faith in McGuinty - and that could also help the Tories with the 3 way splits.....and Ford Nation will also have an impact. So I think it's all about Ontario for a small Tory majority.

[Harry]

Here's the crux of the problem for the Cons.

It is now Layton who Canadians want as their leader as this just released Forum poll points out so voters are beginning to tune Harper out.

Forum Leadership Index for Best Prime Minister

Layton - 33%

Harper - 32%

Ignatieff - 14%

And Cons have confirmed privately that their support is caving into the orange wave in BC.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

It really IS very interesting. If the Tories hold on in Quebec but lose a few seats in BC, they'll make up for it by gaining a few seats in the Maritimes, certainly Newfoundland/Lab. That means it will come down to Ontario where the Conservatives are trending higher. The NDP might pick up a few votes from disaffected Ontario Liberals who have lost faith in McGuinty - and that could also help the Tories with the 3 way splits.....and Ford Nation will also have an impact. So I think it's all about Ontario for a small Tory majority.

I think your partisan leanings are blinding you. If the Tories stay in the mid-30s, not even mathematical foibles can deliver them a majority. They'd need to crawl themselves up to the high 30s for that to be a possibility, and I just don't think there's time for the Tories to pull it off.

[Shady]

Here's the crux of the problem for the Cons.

It is now Layton who Canadians want as their leader as this just released Forum poll points out so voters are beginning to tune Harper out.

Forum Leadership Index for Best Prime Minister

Layton - 33%

Harper - 32%

Ignatieff - 14%

And Cons have confirmed privately that their support is caving into the orange wave in BC.

You're citing a 1% point difference as a fact that Canadians prefer Layton as PM? Which poll is that, and what's the margin of error?

[Tilter]

You're citing a 1% point difference as a fact that Canadians prefer Layton as PM? Which poll is that, and what's the margin of error?

I vote 1 point for Harper & so does my wife---there. Harper is way ahead.

[Harry]

Harper still doesn't get it - Canadians are fed up with 'tea baggers' dirty tricks. This is going to cost the Cons even more votes. No wonder the Cons are sinking in the polls as well.

Whiz kid Patrick Muttart leaves Tory campaign after fake Ignatieff photo flap

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/whiz-kid-patrick-muttart-leaves-tory-campaign-after-fake-ignatieff-photo-flap/article2000591/

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[Shady]

Latest leadership index:

Harper 105.7

Layton 73.2

Ignatieff 40.5

[nittanylionstorm07]

Latest leadership index:

Harper 105.7

Layton 73.2

Ignatieff 40.5

Old.

[ToadBrother]

Old.

Before too long, Shady's going to start providing polling numbers from 2008. Shady has a long-running record of talking absolute crap, particularly when he's in panic mode.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Shady]

Old.

April 26th.

[Harry]

Layton can handle himself, and is talking more and more about becoming prime minister - there could be a new dawn Canadians will be awakening to on Tuesday, May 3.

Layton turns attacks back on rivals

NDP Leader Jack Layton is turning the attacks from his three political rivals back at them as he tries to capitalize on his party's apparent momentum in the polls.

Layton acknowledged the attacks that have been directed at him by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe.

NDP Leader Jack Layton addresses supporters during a campaign stop at the Indian and Metis Friendship Centre in Winnipeg on Wednesday. (Andrew Vaughan/Canadian Press)"Now, the old parties are spending the last week on the attack, hoping to drown out the voices for change in Canada," Layton said at a campaign event in Winnipeg.

"Well, in the final days of this campaign, New Democrats will launch a few attacks of our own. My friends, I will attack health-care wait times. I will attack doctor shortages. I will attack seniors' poverty. I will tackle the crisis in retirement security."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/27/cv-election-ndp-layton-winnipeg-1039.html#

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

April 26th.

They don't release Leadership Index numbers until 4:00 PM. Those numbers are from April 24.

Please learn how to read and comprehend things.