Next Liberal leader

[Posc Student]

The Liberals still have a strong brand and could rebuild, they were at 32% a few weeks ago. I think they need to get rid of a lot of their MPs and have a policy shift, they are no longer at the centre.

[tbean]

I quite agree, he's the only name that comes to my mind. Mind you, not terribly familiar with their reserves of future ex-leaders.

Only other name that routinely come up is Rae, and I can't see them being that foolish.

I really really REALLY hope that Bob Rae doesn't get it. Not only because of what he did to Ontario during his time as premier but also having known him personally, that man has no integrity what so ever. He will say what he needs to say to get the vote ... he does NOT care about the general public, rather more himself and making himself look good and staying in power.

The best person I can think of who I have met and really liked is Gerard Kennedy. He is a man who genuinely care and would put the interest of the public first.

[tbean]

The Liberals still have a strong brand and could rebuild, they were at 32% a few weeks ago. I think they need to get rid of a lot of their MPs and have a policy shift, they are no longer at the centre.

I completely agree!

[Posc Student]

I saw another interview with Justin Trudeau yesterday and making him leader would be a big mistake. I don't think he would bring the party to the centre but putting that aside he is ignorant. I don't know if I've seen an interview yet where he has not spoken over either the interviewer or someone he's debating with, he is always interupting and doesn't want others to make their points.

[KeyStone]

Coyne would do well. He's somewhere between the Liberals and the Conservatives, but is a straight-shooter who isn't afraid to call BS,regardless of his alliances. He was the only one supporting electoral reform when he was at the NP, and actually called out the editors there. Perhaps, that is one of the reasons for this departure to Maclean's.

However, Coyne strikes me as a man of integrity. Generally, moving from journalism to politics is a dubious move, especially when it's a patronage appointment. He's far above the likes of Mike Duffy, Sue-Ann Levy and Peter Kent, who mix politics and journalism.

I don't think he would ever run.

[ToadBrother]

Coyne would do well. He's somewhere between the Liberals and the Conservatives, but is a straight-shooter who isn't afraid to call BS,regardless of his alliances. He was the only one supporting electoral reform when he was at the NP, and actually called out the editors there. Perhaps, that is one of the reasons for this departure to Maclean's.

However, Coyne strikes me as a man of integrity. Generally, moving from journalism to politics is a dubious move, especially when it's a patronage appointment. He's far above the likes of Mike Duffy, Sue-Ann Levy and Peter Kent, who mix politics and journalism.

I don't think he would ever run.

You're quite right. Besides, the advantage of not picking a side is that you can legitimately say you're not picking *on* a side. That's the sad thing about politics, that good men like Andrew Coyne are so intimately acquainted with it that they would likely never become a player.

[Guest Derek L]

Personally, I've always liked Scott Brison.

[Posc Student]

Personally, I've always liked Scott Brison.

I like him but I don't see it happening. A provincial politician from Quebec or possibly Ontario could be interesting.

[Forecast]

I don't understand why Jean Charest's name has not been mentioned.

- veteran politician with fed/prov experience

- keen insight in Quebec

- centrist

- I could see him bringing some of the old PC voters to the Liberals, if he were leader

- wouldn't have to waste months "finding his legs." I can see a leadership race being rushed

- his debating and confrontational skill remind me of Jean Chrétien

I think that there's a strong possibility that Harper's personality will be seen as a liability and he'll be pushed out within the next couple of years. If the Conservatives are able to replace Harper with someone a little more charismatic, less dogmatic, they could make their way to a majority.

Facing that possibility, the Liberals would be best advised to not gamble with an unknown leader. Charest would fit that bill too.

And a long shot possibility, though I doubt that he could be brought out of retirement: David Dodge, former governor of the Bank of Canada. He could easily make it to the final rounds of a convention as a centrist with a rep as an astute watchdog of a strong economy, and a competent deputy minister when in the health portfolio.

Thoughts?

[Posc Student]

Is Charest a federal Liberal?

I can't stand the man and I don't think he would do well. His approval ratings in Quebec are super low so the party would likely have little chance of recovering there, Albertans and westerners wouldn't trust him because of his criticism of the oil sands, He would not win a seat in Newfoundland and Labrador and would likely do poorly in the Maritime as well. Premiers who have moved federal have never done well.

[Vancouverite]

I can see Justin Trudeau running. But Ignatieff will be gone for sure.

[Posc Student]

No need for a new leader, Iggy plans to stay on as leader after the election.

[Smallc]

I'd like to see him try.

Edited May 1, 2011 by Smallc

[Posc Student]

I'd like to see him try.

You don't think the party would want him to stay on?

[punked]

You don't think the party would want him to stay on?

Not the Liberal party. If was the NDP yes but not the Liberals. They might not be able to find someone with a real shot to take on the Liberal ranks after this election. It took them forever to pay off their last debt.

[Uncle 3 dogs]

That's what leftists typically say when they are losing an argument.

Typical leftist post on MLW in response to an opponent: "You are lying! You are polarizing the debate! It's a false dichotomy!"

----

Canada has leftists. But it also has federal Liberals and federal Conservatives.

The federal Liberals don't need a leader, they need a raison d'être.

They have a raison d'être. They are [not Conservatives and they are not NDP. That's all they need to be relevant.

Edited May 1, 2011 by Uncle 3 dogs

[capricorn]

You don't think the party would want him to stay on?

The Liberals will turf him. Their biggest downfall is that they're so power hungry they keep looking for that elusive messiah. Ditch the old guard and rebuild policy from the ground up. Most importantly, give the grassroots the voice they have gradually lost, including electing a new leader from outside the current crop of leadership hopefuls. Of course, all of this is contingent on the party not being wiped out completely in the next couple of elections.

[Posc Student]

The Liberals will turf him. Their biggest downfall is that they're so power hungry they keep looking for that elusive messiah. Ditch the old guard and rebuild policy from the ground up. Most importantly, give the grassroots the voice they have gradually lost, including electing a new leader from outside the current crop of leadership hopefuls. Of course, all of this is contingent on the party not being wiped out completely in the next couple of elections.

My post was sarcastic, but sarcasam doesn't come across well online.

Now that the party is expected to do so poorly it may actually help them and their next leader. The party likely won't expect their next leader to win the next election so not winning won't look like a total fail, like historically it was. The Liberals may realize now that they need a leader who can stay on for several elections.

Jack Layton was not popular when he became leader of the NDP but once people got to know him he became likeable, the same thing happened with Stephen Harper to an extent. Harper was never considered someone who could be Prime Minister when he bacame leader of the CPC but after 7 years he's now usually people first pick to be PM out of the current leaders.

[SuperFreak]

CPC targeted Iggy since he became leader really knocked him down and he never recovered. That won't happen again, CPC will target Layton. As will Bloc and Liberals.

The new Liberal leader sole objective is to pass Layton, that's it. Knock him down to where they feel he belongs, a distant, fringe irrelevant party. He/She will only trigger an election when Liberals have a good chance to do that. The bloc will do same. NDP doing well in one election could be called a fluke, two and its for real, no liberal leader will allow a second humiliation. Harper will run an essential majority until that is possible.

The liberals were in power for a long time with Chretien, it is only natural that another party reigned for a while. It was just arrogant they expected to rule forever.

It would be funny if Bob Rae was the new leader. Make for some interesting and comical exchanges with NDP. It wouldn't happen as he wouldn't be able to legitimately distinguish himself from NDP and criticize for big spending.

[Posc Student]

The NDP have only done well when they've had a popular leader. Layton won't be around a whole lot longer so a new NDP leader may cause the parties numbers to drop.

Does anyone know of provincial politicians who could make the jump to federal as leader?

Eric Hoskins could have been a good candidate for the leadership had he won his seat in 2008.

[punked]

The NDP have only done well when they've had a popular leader. Layton won't be around a whole lot longer so a new NDP leader may cause the parties numbers to drop.

Does anyone know of provincial politicians who could make the jump to federal as leader?

Eric Hoskins could have been a good candidate for the leadership had he won his seat in 2008.

We have done very poorly with a popular leader. Alexa was amazing but she didn't win a whole lot of seats. Heck Tommy Douglas got punches put to him.

Lets not kid ourselves this statement doesn't hold a lot of water.

[Hydraboss]

The NDP haven't done well with or without a popular leader. No change in leadership. No change in policy. No change in anything.

So that should make eyebrows raise when you consider it. If nothing has changed except the popular vote, then it should be reasonable to assume that the "surge" is not for the NDP but against the other parties involved. This too will die down.

[punked]

The NDP haven't done well with or without a popular leader. No change in leadership. No change in policy. No change in anything.

So that should make eyebrows raise when you consider it. If nothing has changed except the popular vote, then it should be reasonable to assume that the "surge" is not for the NDP but against the other parties involved. This too will die down.

I think the surge is putting Canada in line with every other parliamentary democracy with a first past the post system. No other country has a Liberal party any more as their "natural governing party". There are Labour parties and Conservative parties.

[nittanylionstorm07]

The NDP have only done well when they've had a popular leader. Layton won't be around a whole lot longer so a new NDP leader may cause the parties numbers to drop.

Does anyone know of provincial politicians who could make the jump to federal as leader?

Eric Hoskins could have been a good candidate for the leadership had he won his seat in 2008.

I think it's pretty clear Mulclair will be the next leader.

The NDP haven't done well with or without a popular leader. No change in leadership. No change in policy. No change in anything.

So that should make eyebrows raise when you consider it. If nothing has changed except the popular vote, then it should be reasonable to assume that the "surge" is not for the NDP but against the other parties involved. This too will die down.

This is an oversimplistic response. The Liberals have been the dominant left-centre party in Canada since Confederation. The reason the NDP hasn't been able to breakthrough is that the Liberals have always kept their hold onto that position until Martin/Dion/Iggy, sponsorship, etc. with their loss in trust. That allowed the NDP to break out of their traditional areas and into Quebec, where now people are tired of the Bloc and separatist movement.

It's a perfect storm that has allowed the NDP to come up and cement themselves as the dominant left-wing party in Canada. The Liberals and Bloc are toast.

[Hydraboss]

I think the surge is putting Canada in line with every other parliamentary democracy with a first past the post system. No other country has a Liberal party any more as their "natural governing party". There are Labour parties and Conservative parties.

Point made. You're not as dumb as I think you look.