French Debate Election 2011

[August1991]

I thought the French debate was generally more interesting than the English debate. Ignatieff improved considerably and Harper was more relaxed, more willing to step out of the bubble.

Nevertheless, the debate was hard to listen to: Imagine listening to three Duceppes and one, let's say, real anglophone for two hours. That's what the French debate is like. Layton has a better accent but poor structure and small vocabulary. Ignatieff has a better vocabulary and better structure but his accent is off. Harper manages in French. Only Duceppe speaks well. Keep in mind that a politician's main skill is communication. Think of Obama.

We were spoiled in the past with politicians such as Levesque and Trudeau.

Argus would argue that Quebecers always choose one of their own in federal elections but in fact, it is just a question of communication. Mulroney is the only "anglophone" leader who could speak correct French.

----

Early in the debate, I thought that if Layton could speak decent French, or if the NDP chose a Quebec leader, then the NDP could really compete with the Bloc. Other than the question sovereignty, the two are similar in many ways.

But then the question of Quebec's place in Canada arose, and the person who defended best the federalist position was Ignatieff. He did it well and immediately guaranteed that the Liberals will keep their francophone federalist vote. Duceppe responded in kind - although he used a curious comparison of Canadian sovereignty to do it. I thought that Duceppe will keep his regional, sovereignist vote in line. General federalist/sovereignist bickering circa 1980 ensued between Ignatieff/Duceppe.

And then Harper waded in to say that this national debate will last forever, a coalition of these two will never work well and people in Quebec have other preoccupations.

So, my conclusions? Ignatieff will keep the traditional Liberal federalist vote and the close ridings in Montreal, the Bloc will win its usual seats and teh Conservatives will keep the seats where enough practical people seek another way. The NDP will keep Mulcair's riding but that's all. IOW, status quo.

----

Last point. Most post-debate commentary is based in Montreal. Harper was appealing to voters outside of Montreal. Duceppe in effect acknowledged this in his final comments by arguing that Quebecers should not be divided.

Harper is not seeking everyone's vote. He is only seeking enough voters to form a majority.

Edited April 14, 2011 by August1991

[punked]

Seems the Media is giving this one to Jack if only because the Debate seemed to be all about the NDP. I have seen some say it was the Bloc but Harper and Iggy clearly shut out. That is fine for Harper but bad for Iggy. I mean the Liberals were on camera half the time of the all the other parties.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/13/tie-goes-to-layton/

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i1gi0AFQ4TPVsbS2sGyZA7xRSx6A?docId=6560203

Here is a snap poll after the debate. What we see is the NDP did very very well tonight.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/13/17986826.html

Edited April 14, 2011 by punked

[August1991]

Seems the Media is giving this one to Jack if only because the Debate seemed to be all about the NDP. I have seen some say it was the Bloc but Harper and Iggy clearly shut out. That is fine for Harper but bad for Iggy. I mean the Liberals were on camera half the time of the all the other parties.

By any standard, Duceppe dominated the debate because of his command of French and the issues relevant to teh audience. Layton's ability in English just doesn't match a native speaker.

When Layton said that he was born in Quebec and grew up here, and then his French is so weak, it just undermines all his credibility. (It didn't help that Layton kept referring to himself as a candidate for PM.) Ignatieff had the good sense to admit that he was an anglophone.

Please don't get me wrong. Harper, Ignatieff and Layton speak better French than any previous anglophone federal politicians (excepting Mulroney). But to succeed in politics, the standards are high.

----

In idoelogical terms, Layton and Duceppe are competing for similar voters: urban leftists. Such voters typically expect articulate leaders and after this debate, none will switch from Duceppe to Layton.

In addition, Layton could potentially steal some federalist votes from Ignatieff. But after this debate, any federalist francophones are going to stay firmly with Ignatieff. He was the only one of the four who clearly confronted Duceppe and stated well the federalist position in Quebec.

So, Layton didn't win anything. Ignatieff will keep what he has. Duceppe will keep what he has.

Justin Trudeau can sleep peacefully because his riding is a little more safely Liberal tonight.

[punked]

By any standard, Duceppe dominated the debate because of his command of French and the issues relevant to teh audience. Layton's ability in English just doesn't match a native speaker.

When Layton said that he was born in Quebec and grew up here, and then his French is so weak, it just undermines all his credibility. (It didn't help that Layton kept referring to himself as a candidate for PM.) Ignatieff had the good sense to admit that he was an anglophone.

Please don't get me wrong. Harper, Ignatieff and Layton speak better French than any previous anglophone federal politicians (excepting Mulroney). But to succeed in politics, the standards are high.

----

In idoelogical terms, Layton and Duceppe are competing for similar voters: urban leftists. Such voters typically expect articulate leaders and after this debate, none will switch from Duceppe to Layton.

In addition, Layton could potentially steal some federalist votes from Ignatieff. But after this debate, any federalist francophones are going to stay firmly with Ignatieff. He was the only one of the four who clearly confronted Duceppe and stated well the federalist position in Quebec.

So, Layton didn't win anything. Ignatieff will keep what he has. Duceppe will keep what he has.

Justin Trudeau can sleep peacefully because his riding is a little more safely Liberal tonight.

It seems French speaking Canada disagrees with you. The Ledger poll done after the debate shows that Iggy got worse numbers in the French debate then the English one and Jack came in a strong second. I mean that is what French speaking Canada says. Maybe you and I watched a different debate, I watched the one which these people watched.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/13/17986826.html

[Smallc]

Polls show Harper lost the debate tonight. I don't disagree. He started well, but he got too emotional it seemed.

[Harry]

No question Duceppe was the best performer tonite, but Layton once again doing very well, with a strong second. Iggy seemed to be worse tonite than the English debate, but it was not the best of nites for Harper eirther. I think some of Harper's Quebec City area seats may be in serious jeopardy now.

Il lance, il compte.

Quote of the night from the federal leaders' debate

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i1gi0AFQ4TPVsbS2sGyZA7xRSx6A?docId=6560203

[ToadBrother]

No question Duceppe was the best performer tonite, but Layton once again doing very well, with a strong second. Iggy seemed to be worse tonite than the English debate, but it was not the best of nites for Harper eirther. I think some of Harper's Quebec City area seats may be in serious jeopardy now.

Il lance, il compte.

At this point I don't care which Federalist party takes a bite out of the Bloc. If the NDP can steal some seats, then I'll be as happy as a pig in s--t. It's pretty clear Duceppe is pondering that possibility as well. In times past the NDP has been barely a distraction, and all of sudden now Duceppe seems as worried about the NDP as he is about Harper.

Edited April 14, 2011 by ToadBrother

[Benz]

...

In addition, Layton could potentially steal some federalist votes from Ignatieff. But after this debate, any federalist francophones are going to stay firmly with Ignatieff. He was the only one of the four who clearly confronted Duceppe and stated well the federalist position in Quebec.

...

Justin Trudeau can sleep peacefully because his riding is a little more safely Liberal tonight.

I have to desagree. The liberals have very few supporters among the french. They have few pro-status-quo at best and Gatineau's. The liberals are the massive choice of the english and allophones and that's about it. The conservatives are the only one to breach supports among the french in Quebec city area, the Beauce and a little bit in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean.

Justin Trudeau shouldn't be too confident. He didn't win that easily the last time and he is not the tenth of what his father was. I wouldn't be surprise to see him losing his riding.

So, Layton didn't win anything. Ignatieff will keep what he has. Duceppe will keep what he has.

That I agree.

I beleive the most unpredictable results will come from Quebec city area.

[Bryan]

August,

You don't think that Ignatieff stepped on his dick with his remarks about sovereignty being an old issue, and Quebeckers needed to get with 2011? That whole exchange seemed really badly handled to me, but I don't live in Quebec, and my French is awfull, so I could easily be reading more into it.

[August1991]

August,

You don't think that Ignatieff stepped on his dick with his remarks about sovereignty being an old issue, and Quebeckers needed to get with 2011? That whole exchange seemed really badly handled to me, but I don't live in Quebec, and my French is awfull, so I could easily be reading more into it.

No, IMHO, Ignatieff handled it very well - depending on how you view the whole question.

This was the only exchange where anyone directly contested Duceppe and Ignatieff said exactly the right things to a federalist francophone audience. This means that any federalist thinking of voting NDP will likely stay Liberal. Ignatieff also approached the question correctly by noting that the Constitution was not a preoccupation of people in Quebec. At the same time, Ignatieff got Duceppe on to the question of sovereignty which no one (except les purs et durs) wants to hear about. Ignatieff was right to say that it was 2011, and Duceppe was still talking about the same thing. I was half expecting Ignatieff to say to Duceppe, "You're Mr. Yesterday". (I know what Trudeau would have said. For one thing, Trudeau wouldn't have let Duceppe get away with stating that Quebec did not sign on to the Constitution in 1982... )

Heck, it was deja vu all over again. I thought I was in a time machine back to 1980 or something.

Harper rightly wandered into this exchange by avoiding it and said that he had other priorities. Layton nattered on about the NDP having recognized Quebec as a distinct society 50 years ago.

In a sense, each of the four presented their viewpoints on federalism.

If you can read French (or can tolerate Google translate), here is Manon Cornellier's editorial in Le Devoir. She has a similar opinion to me:

L'échiquier québécois n'a pas été bousculé hier soir, malgré un débat des chefs plus vivant et vigoureux que la veille. Mais les Québécois auront au moins eu droit, pour la première fois depuis longtemps, à un condensé des positions des partis fédéralistes à l'endroit du Québec.

Le Devoir

I liked this quote from the woman interviewed in teh debate's first segment:

Selon Muguette Paillé, c'est Jack Layton et Michael Ignatieff qui ont le mieux répondu à sa question.

«Certainement pas M. Harper. Il n'a montré aucune empathie. Je ne l'ai pas aimé du tout. Mais j'ai bien aimé M. Layton et aussi M. Ignatieff qui ont bien répondu», a-t-elle dit sans mentionner le chef du Bloc québécois, Gilles Duceppe.

Elle n'a pas été agacée par le fait que Michael Ignatieff utilise l'exemple de ses parents, notamment pour parler des aidants naturels.

«M. Ignatieff a été très réaliste dans sa réponse. Il parlait de ma réalité. Quand il a parlé de mes parents, je me suis demandé s'il avait fait une enquête sur moi. Mes parents sont en santé, ils ont 84 et 86 ans. C'est vrai que je me préoccupe d'eux», fait-elle remarquer.

Canoe

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Incidentally, post-debate analysis often referred to Duceppe's excellent rejoinder to Layton who said: "Only the NDP can score goals." Duceppe answered: "But the Bloc always has more players on the ice."

Justin Trudeau shouldn't be too confident. He didn't win that easily the last time and he is not the tenth of what his father was. I wouldn't be surprise to see him losing his riding.

Justin Trudeau is in a difficult riding and he doesn't want to bleed any quasi-federalist support to the NDP. Ignatieff help him last night. Edited April 14, 2011 by August1991

[maldon_road]

I watched the debate and to the extent that debates mean anything,

Duceppe will keep about the same number of seats as before. Might pick up Papineau thus denying the Libs a new leader.

Layton was the best of the others - that means more votes, not more seats.

Ignatieff was better than in English but not enough to do the Libs any good.

Harper was robotic. He'll have to get his majority elsewhere.

[August1991]

It seems French speaking Canada disagrees with you. The Ledger poll done after the debate shows that Iggy got worse numbers in the French debate then the English one and Jack came in a strong second.

That poll doesn't state how Layton, Ignatieff and Harper split the non-Duceppe vote.

My point is that the NDP vote in Quebec is very soft. People will say they like Layton or the NDP but it's meaningless. If the NDP had a leader who could speak good French and was willing to confront Duceppe intelligently, then the debate would have been different.

I will say that Layton has a colloquial accent, and his French has improved, but he's nowhere near as fluent in French as he is in English. Keep in mind that politicians live and die by their ability to communicate.

[Posc Student]

It seems French speaking Canada disagrees with you. The Ledger poll done after the debate shows that Iggy got worse numbers in the French debate then the English one and Jack came in a strong second. I mean that is what French speaking Canada says. Maybe you and I watched a different debate, I watched the one which these people watched.

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/13/17986826.html

An Ipsos Reid poll says that Ignatieff came in second, slightly ahead of Layton. The poll also showed that respondents thought Ignatieff acted and sounded most like a Prime Minister and that he would be better able to handle the economy and taxes then Harper.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5205

[capricorn]

The poll also showed that respondents thought Ignatieff acted and sounded most like a Prime Minister

You mean where it says Ignatieff and Harper are essentially tied in this category?

A plurality believes that Michael Ignatieff (30%, +6) sounds and acts most like a Prime Minister, basically tied with Stephen Harper (29% -5). Jack Layton (19%, unchanged) and Gilles Duceppe (17%, +3) are well back, while 5% (-4) don’t know.

[Posc Student]

You mean where it says Ignatieff and Harper are essentially tied in this category?

Who's leading?

[Harry]

An Ipsos Reid poll says that Ignatieff came in second, slightly ahead of Layton. The poll also showed that respondents thought Ignatieff acted and sounded most like a Prime Minister and that he would be better able to handle the economy and taxes then Harper.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5205

- from that same article

Harper’s performance in the debate had a net negative effect on viewers as just 11% say their impressions of Stephen Harper improved, compared with 47% whose impressions worsened (net: -36). Contrast that with Jack Layton’s and Michael Ignatieff’s performances: a majority (52%) had improved impressions of the NDP leader as a result of watching the debate, compared to just 10% whose impressions worsened (net: +42). Similarly, a majority (52%) of Francophone viewers say their impressions of Michael Ignatieff improved, while just one quarter (24%) say they worsened (net: +28).

[maldon_road]

I don't think there is any doubt that among the Anglos Iggy and Layton gained at the expense of Harper.

Economy: Michael Ignatieff (30%, +5), Stephen Harper (26%, -1), Jack Layton (20%, +2), Gilles Duceppe (16%, +2), don’t know (9%, -7).

Healthcare: Jack Layton (33%, unchanged), Michael Ignatieff (27%, +4), Gilles Duceppe (21%, +3), Stephen Harper (9%, +1), don’t know (10%, -7).

Taxes: Michael Ignatieff (28%, +1), Stephen Harper (25%, +5), Jack Layton (24%, unchanged), Gilles Duceppe (15%, +2), don’t know (8%, -8).

Environment: Jack Layton (50%, +3), Gilles Duceppe (19%, +4), Michael Ignatieff (12%, -3), Stephen Harper (4%, -1), don’t know (15%, -3).

[Benz]

Ignatieff got Duceppe on to the question of sovereignty which no one (except les purs et durs) wants to hear about. Ignatieff was right to say that it was 2011, and Duceppe was still talking about the same thing. I was half expecting Ignatieff to say to Duceppe, "You're Mr. Yesterday".

Ignatieff didn't win anything with that. It's quiet the opposite. He only pleased and comforted its usual supporters. I don't even think this would help him to get votes from the few NDP supporters. For the french, he is not different from its prédécesseurs Chrétien, Martin and Dion. Worst, he is not french. That's why Harper has better chances. If the french have to vote for an english leader, they would rather vote for someone that does recognize the Quebec nation, not one that says it's not important.

(I know what Trudeau would have said. For one thing, Trudeau wouldn't have let Duceppe get away with stating that Quebec did not sign on to the Constitution in 1982... )

Duceppe would beat Trudeau very bad. Justin doesn't have the intelligence of its father and even the ghost of the old man wouldn't stand a chance today. There is a reason why the federalists are trying to avoid the subject today. The federalism is totally nailed in Quebec. Chretien crapt it all with the sponsorship scandal. The Quebecois know those liberals do not have anything to offer anymore.

Heck, it was deja vu all over again. I thought I was in a time machine back to 1980 or something.

Go tell that to Jean Charest, another federalist that would never do the mistake to accept and sign the 1982's constitution. The unanimity of the Assemblée National still protests against the actual constitution. It is clear that you are among the negationists but, that attitude can only lead to give credibility and support to the Bloc Québécois. The only one party the majority trusts for the last 18 years. You have only yourself to blame. Harper is wiser than that and it explains why he manages to win few seats among the french.

In a sense, each of the four presented their viewpoints on federalism.

Yep, even Duceppe did. As usual, the ROC doesn't debate on it. They don't care what Quebec thinks, yet they wonder why the Bloc is so popular in Quebec.

Justin Trudeau is in a difficult riding and he doesn't want to bleed any quasi-federalist support to the NDP. Ignatieff help him last night.

I wouldn't bet on that, although it is possible. The minding in Montreal on that matter is very different from the rest of Quebec.

[August1991]

Ignatieff didn't win anything with that. It's quiet the opposite. He only pleased and comforted its usual supporters. I don't even think this would help him to get votes from the few NDP supporters. For the french, he is not different from its prédécesseurs Chrétien, Martin and Dion.

I disagree.

Duceppe would beat Trudeau very bad. Justin doesn't have the intelligence of its father and even the ghost of the old man wouldn't stand a chance today. There is a reason why the federalists are trying to avoid the subject today. The federalism is totally nailed in Quebec. Chretien crapt it all with the sponsorship scandal. The Quebecois know those liberals do not have anything to offer anymore.

As I say, Justin is an example of the George Bernard Shaw (apocryphal) quote. He has his mother's brains and his father's looks.

But Benz, you're wrong in two ways. Duceppe would have been no match for Trudeau père. (Duceppe himself is at best the son of a famous actor. There is something sad about Quebec in this regard. There's no relève.)

But you are also wrong to say that federalism is "nailed" in Quebec. By my reckoning, there are about 40% who are hard core federalists and about 30% hard core sovereignists. Everyone else would just wish the sterile debate would go away for at least a generation or two.

The hard core federalists include a significant number of francophones de souche who for the most part voted Liberal in the past. Ignatieff has sent all the right signals to these people. Justin should not fear that he might bleed federalist support to the NDP and so Barbot could win through a vote split.

Go tell that to Jean Charest, another federalist that would never do the mistake to accept and sign the 1982's constitution. The unanimity of the Assemblée National still protests against the actual constitution. It is clear that you are among the negationists but, that attitude can only lead to give credibility and support to the Bloc Québécois. The only one party the majority trusts for the last 18 years. You have only yourself to blame. Harper is wiser than that and it explains why he manages to win few seats among the french.

Don`t misunderstand me, Benz. I will not defend Pierre Trudeau`s argument. I say however that Trudeau would have forcefully (and successfuly) opposed Duceppe`s claim that "Quebec didn`t sign the constitution". In Trudeau's mind, 74 of 75 federal MPs from Quebec approved the constitutional changes in 1982. Federal MPs speak as much for Quebec as the National Assembly.

----

Anyway, these are debates from the past, or perhaps for the future. I would not be surprised to learn that Parizeau or Landry, at this very moment, is putting pen to paper to write a response to Ignatieff. These pointless debates about the sex of angels are never ending. (IMV, they hurt Quebec and Montreal`s municipal politics now suffer.)

I think Harper had the right approach by saying that other issues matter more. (And a white-bread WASP Harper can at least get along with the Fabien Roy créditistes - which is perhaps the ultimate proof that Canada's lunacy is viable.)

Edited April 15, 2011 by August1991

[Benz]

I think Harper had the right approach by saying that other issues matter more. (so said Ignatieff too)

Yeah yeah! Quebec votes for the bad evil guys for 18 years in a row. Same old. Canada is just perfect the way it is, it's the Québécois that are plain wrong all the time.

This always been food for the Bloc and will always be. The name is also an irony. The Bloc is an answer to the Blokes.