Federal Election Polls

[Smallc]

Neither the Liberals or the Torys said it and they wanted those votes too.

They don't seem to understand the soft nationalists the way Layton does. That's why he seems to have their vote, and they don't.

[TimG]

They don't seem to understand the soft nationalists the way Layton does. That's why he seems to have their vote, and they don't.

Of course he does. He just took the BQ policy book, crossed out the stuff about holding a referendum, and adopted it as NDP platform. Do you really think the Libs and Tories did not know they could get votes by doing this? They didn't because they understood that doing it would only harm the country in the long run.

[Smallc]

Do you really think the Libs and Tories did not know they could get votes by doing this?

I actually think that they didn't....or they would have done it.

[cybercoma]

Some of these posters are an embarassment to the real Conservative posters on this forum. It's desperate and pathetic to even try to insinuate that Jack Layton is a Quebec sovereigntist.

[Bonam]

Of course he does. He just took the BQ policy book, crossed out the stuff about holding a referendum, and adopted it as NDP platform. Do you really think the Libs and Tories did not know they could get votes by doing this? They didn't because they understood that doing it would only harm the country in the long run.

I don't think that's it at all. No party cares about the "country in the long run". Parties, by their very nature, care about the party first and the country second (if at all). The Libs and Tories did not "adopt the BQ policy book" because they could not gain nearly so much by doing so. There is plenty of resentment in Quebec against the Tories as well as against the Liberals (sponsorship, etc). The NDP on the other hand have nothing held against them since they've never formed government. For now, Quebec is giving Layton the benefit of the doubt. If Harper said the same things regarding Quebec as Layton did, you really think that the conservatives would be polling #1 in Quebec? I don't think so.

[jbg]

Some of these posters are an embarassment to the real Conservative posters on this forum. It's desperate and pathetic to even try to insinuate that Jack Layton is a Quebec sovereigntist.

Maybe he isn't but he's a Pander Bear.

Edited April 27, 2011 by jbg

[TimG]

Some of these posters are an embarassment to the real Conservative posters on this forum. It's desperate and pathetic to even try to insinuate that Jack Layton is a Quebec sovereigntist.

Really? Then tell me where he has said no to Quebec natiionalists. It seems like everything on their wish list Layton has given them no matter what the consequences. Where is the evidnence that this guy is willing to actually stand up for Canada. It don't see any. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[cybercoma]

I'm not going to play your absurd little game. He's trying to bring Quebec into the Constitution. That's as far away from being a Quebec sovereigntist as you can get. End of story.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Back to polls:

Here are the forum regionals:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/JeffWells/na0428-party-support.jpg

Some very, very interesting results...

[Smallc]

The NDP is TIED in the prairies and 17 points ahead of the Bloc in Quebec? Wow. And they're in FIRST PLACE in Atlantic Canada.

[TimG]

I'm not going to play your absurd little game. He's trying to bring Quebec into the Constitution. That's as far away from being a Quebec sovereigntist as you can get. End of story.

Try answering the question instead of creating a strawman. I asked you to "Then tell me where he has said no to Quebec natiionalists". I suspect the answer is no where because he has not. As for the constitution - he is clueless. By adopting the Quebec natiionalist view on everything he has destroyed his credibility with the rest of country and there is zero chance that he could broker any change at this time. By promising to re-open it he is setting the country up for another failure. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[nittanylionstorm07]

The NDP is TIED in the prairies and 17 points ahead of the Bloc in Quebec? Wow. And they're in FIRST PLACE in Atlantic Canada.

Man/Sask is amazing. I've been thinking this, but haven't mentioned it... I wonder how much the flooding in Manitoba is affecting this?

[Smallc]

By adopting the Quebec natiionalist view on everything he has destroyed his credibility with the rest of country and there is zero chance that he could broker any change at this time.

Because of course, everyone sees it exactly that way. You're reading way way too far into this.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Because of course, everyone sees it exactly that way. You're reading way way too far into this.

Basically, his view is that since the NDP have some similar positions to the Bloc, they must have all of the positions of the Bloc.

Okay, we can play this game.

Since the Tories have similar positions to the Western Block Party, they must also want separation of the West from Canada.

[jbg]

I'm not going to play your absurd little game. He's trying to bring Quebec into the Constitution. That's as far away from being a Quebec sovereigntist as you can get. End of story.

I didn't know John Updike's novel was called "Mulroney Redux". Very Meech or Charlottetown.

[TimG]

Basically, his view is that since the NDP have some similar positions to the Bloc, they must have all of the positions of the Bloc.

I am referring to F** Canada positions that the Bloq has which the NDP seems to have adopted in their entirety. The only exception seems to be the desire for a referendum.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I am referring to F** Canada positions that the Bloq has which the NDP seems to have adopted in their entirety. The only exception seems to be the desire for a referendum.

Show me proof where the NDP has adopted said position.

[TimG]

Show me proof where the NDP has adopted said position.

Here proof from the 2005 Sherbrook declaration:

Also, the NDP would recognize a majority decision (50% + 1) of the Quebec people in the event of a referendum on the political status of Quebec. The NDP recognizes as well that the right to self-determination implies that Assemble nationale is able to write a referendum question and that the citizens of Quebec are able to answer it freely.

The NDP is saying that 50%+1 on any question is acceptable grounds for breaking up the country. We had a referendum on changing the voting system in BC which failed because it required 60%. The idea that 50%+1 on a ambiguous question is acceptable grounds is a F*** Canada position - officially endorsed by the NDP.

Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[Harry]

Forum Research Poll - phenomenal results for the NDP

Canada

Cons - 34%

NDP - 32%

Libs - 22%

Bloc - 6%

BC

Cons - 37%

NDP - 28%

Libs - 19%

Grn - 14%

AB

Cons - 58%

NDP - 21%

Libs - 13%

MB/SK

Cons - 41%

NDP - 40%

Libs - 16%

ON

Cons - 38%

Libs - 28%

NDP - 26%

QC

NDP - 40%

Bloc - 23%

Libs - 16%

Cons - 16%

AT

NDP - 35%

Libs -30%

Cons - 26%

[ToadBrother]

Neither the Liberals or the Torys said it and they wanted those votes too. Basically, the NDP appears to have adopted all of the BQ policies. No wonder they are doing so well in Quebec. I thought the NDP advances would be good for unity but the NDP has just sold out country by caving into all of the BQ demands.

Can you give me one tangible policy where the NDP differs from the BQ other than the notional commitment to sovereignty? They look the same otherwise.

His approach is a helluva lot more nuanced than you give him credit for. Layton has said "We will consider opening the constitution up" and meanwhile saying "We'll consider removing the stipulations found in the Clarity Act".

There is nothing in these positions that hasn't been suggested before. We know the NDP have advocated for years for asymmetric Federalism, so I'm not exactly sure what your surprise is here. At best Layton's support of the Clarity Act has been lukewarm.

I'm not convinced of his approach, but neither am I convinced that Harper's ostrich-in-the-hole response is exactly some shining beacon on the path to national unity, considering that Harper is every bit as willing to throw up constitutionally dubious stunts like his Senate term limit bill. Nor has Harper's actions over the last couple of years demonstrated any great resolve to forward national unity. He quite happily told the country that having a large group of Quebec MPs supporting a coalition was an illegitimate deal, so if you want to look at dangerous words, you have no lack from the Prime Minister.

Layton has laid out an idea for reform. He's attached no timeline, so it's not like Quebecers or anyone else are being lead to believe that we'll have Son-of-Charlottetown beating on our doorsteps within minutes of an NDP government forming.

You're trying to basically make Layton sound like a soft nationalist, when in fact he's merely fleshing out what he and the NDP have been saying for years, but that nobody ever particularly paid that much attention to before. And while I think his approach is debatable on points (ie. his desire to get rid of the Senate), I can't see in any way that he's handing the Separatists an early Christmas present. Quite the opposite. They don't want any kind of renewal of federalism. They want a Prime Minister who, when the fortunes of political warfare potentially swing against him, will make inflammatory statements. Believe me, the Bloc and the PQ would love nothing better than a hardline Anglo like Stephen Harper in charge. A party like the NDP is a major threat because they give the soft nationalists a new home whereby they can potentially negotiate changes to our federal structure without actually having to carry through on the threat of another referendum.

[cybercoma]

Hey Tim, show me where Stephen Harper said no to sovereigntists. In fact, Stephen Harper told them they are their own nation. I guess this means your beloved Harper Conservatives are sovereigntists. I mean, it only makes sense since the Bloc Quebecois are just the better-half of Harper's Conservatives from the Mulroney days. They must be trying to tear the country apart.

[TimG]

There is nothing in these positions that hasn't been suggested before. We know the NDP have advocated for years for asymmetric Federalism, so I'm not exactly sure what your surprise is here. At best Layton's support of the Clarity Act has been lukewarm.

I have not paid attention because it did not matter what Layton thought of it. For me the clarity act is politically unenforceable but incredibly important because it forces the PQ raise the standards. For example, I bet the question extremely clear even as they protest the "intrusion". I see it at the opening hand for Canada in an future referendum and it is stupid to deal it away before the negotiations even start. That is why I see it as move which is against the interests of Canada.

A party like the NDP is a major threat because they give the soft nationalists a new home whereby they can potentially negotiate changes to our federal structure without actually having to carry through on the threat of another referendum.

I do not personally believe there is an constitutional solution to be found. Raising expectations risks a backlash when they are not met. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[TimG]

fact, Stephen Harper told them they are their own nation.

He said the Quebequois are a nation. Not Quebec. A subtle and important difference that upset the sovereigntists.

And yes, I agree that the NDP is following the path of Mulroney on the Quebec front. We all know that ended in tears.

Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[ToadBrother]

I do not personally believe there is an constitutional solution to be found. Raising expectations risks a backlash when they are not met.

As I've said before, I don't think there is a package of constitutional changes that would not end in grief. I'm hoping that Layton would be thinking in terms of taking on constitutional change in small pieces.

You'll find that I have been, around here, a big defender of not blasting open the constitutional pandora's box ala Meech Lake and Charlottetown. That's not to say that I think the constitution doesn't need some shifting, or that some effort in making good on the long-standing complaints (as technically inaccurate as they may be) that Quebec was somehow left out in 1982. I think that's probably Layton's position as well, and that by backing away from the Clarity Act he hopes to demonstrate that he's willing to act on good faith.

I doubt very much that constitutional talks would be high on his agenda to begin with anyways, and he's made it clear that he's not interested in doing it right now.

Beyond that, this is all talk. We all know that the NDP is not going to beat the Tories in this election. Perhaps if the election was a week or two longer, that trajectory would take them there. It is possible that the NDP might try to engineer the defeat of the Tories over the Throne Speech, but there's still several weeks between election day and when Parliament sits again for Harper to work something out, and as much of an obstinate pr*ck as he can be, he's also shown himself capable of pragmatism, particularly when his political survival is on the line. No one can tell me that Harper is just going to sit on his hands after next week's election waiting to lead the Tories to the slaughter. He's going to find some accommodation, if not with the NDP, then with the Liberals.

To be blunt, I think we're all letting this "sea of orange" nonsense blur our vision. I mean, I could be wrong, and maybe Monday night Prime Minister Jack Layton will be thanking his wife and all the little people that made it all possible, but honestly, I just can't see it happening. We'll have a Tory government, perhaps somewhat chastened, but still there and still trying to figure out a way to keep a hold on power.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

He said the Quebequois are a nation. Not Quebec. A subtle and important difference that upset the sovereigntists.

And yes, I agree that the NDP is following the path of Mulroney on the Quebec front. We all know that ended in tears.

Tears after the fact you might add. Quebec was a done deal, until now. The political landscape in this nation may be undergoing fundamental change. The "surge" of ND support is a game changer.