NDP down in BC

[August1991]

This is for MapleSyrup:

The Ipsos-Reid data are based on combining B.C. results from two national polls with a new provincial poll. In total, more than 1,000 voter interviews were done on the West Coast, providing the most comprehensive poll results so far in the election campaign.

It projects that the Conservatives will win 23 to 25 of the province's 36 seats. The party now has 25. The Liberals would get six to eight seats, for a possible gain over the six now held, and the New Democratic Party is projected to take four to six seats, up from two.

G&M BC poll analysis

This is Canada writ large. Rural areas are over-represented and urban areas under-represented.

[Dennis]

Nice work, August .

Love seeing that NDP cheerleader knocked down a notch or three.

According to maple, the NDP is the best thing that's happened since Confederation.

A little bit of reality showered upon that socialist world might do some good. Or the cheerleading might continue unabated, knowing the NDP.

[BigGunner]

Considering the NDP's 2000 performance, I'd conclude that they have increased more than lost..

I guess I have a problem with the seat projection model that Ipsos-Reid is using..

Consider that the Alliance won Prince George-Peace River with almost 75% of the vote in 2000...there is no reason to expect that the cons. will lose that seat at all, but if Ipsos-Reid puts conservative support at only 37% in the entire BC Interior, and the NDP second at 27%, then the conservatives can expect to keep their hard-core seats like PG-Peace Riv. and Kelowna area seats, while the rest of the Interior is up for grabs...and the Liberals are third at 23%, so its quite a horse race actually.

This drama will be played out in every region of BC, because thats just how it works. Every party has concentrated support in certain areas, but Ipsos-Reid is using regional averages to determine seat projections.

On Vancouver Island. The Conservatives are likely ahead in Saanich and the Islands, and North Island - by substantial margins, but the NDP has support concentrated in the other 4 Island ridings...the NDP could gain 4 seats just from the Island. In fact the poll indicates a close battle (30% Cons, 26% NDP, 22% Liberals, 18% Green).

And Vancouver area. The NDP hasn't got a chance in Van. Quadra, but are extremely competitive in just about every other seat...in Van. South, the NDP is in second place with 28% (behind Ujjal) when in 2000, the NDP got only 7.6%. If the Vancouver region is 38% liberal, 32% NDP, and 21% conservative, then the NDP is far ahead in Van-East, Bby-Douglas, and is poised to take Van-Kingsway, and perhaps Van-Centre...since the cons are off the map now.

As the election approaches, I'd expect many of the Greens to vote for the NDP, to avoid a BC/2001 scenario, and many of the progressive Liberals do the same.

Glad to see a more in depth poll though, and thanks for posting it