Liberals in Freefall

[Kliege]

Liberal slide worsens, according to new poll

CTV.ca News Staff

After the first week of campaigning, the Liberal Party is falling fast into minority territory, according to a new poll by Ipsos-Reid. And they may not have even bottomed out yet.

A new Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail asked Canadians: Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support ?

The poll found that the Liberals are now at 34 per cent among decided voters -- their lowest level since Paul Martin became prime minister in December.

Not far behind is the Conservatives, who have jumped four points to 30 per cent. Support for the New Democratic Party has dropped slightly to 16 per cent, down two points.

In Quebec, where the Liberal Party has been hit hard by the $100-million sponsorship scandal, the Bloc Quebecois has 44 per cent support, down six points. But it is leading the Liberals by a 15-point margin.

Based on those numbers, Ipsos-Reid drafted a seat projection model that suggests the Liberals would win only 122 to 126 seats if an election were held today. The Conservatives would get between 107 to 111 seats, the NDP 15 to 19, and the Bloc Quebecois 56 to 60.

At least 155 seats of the 308 seats up for grabs are needed for a majority.

CTV's Craig Oliver says the results do not bode well for the Liberals.

"They are a on a really slippery deck. I think this is still a contest, but a really narrow one. It's very hard to find examples of a governing party that ever was able to come back from such a steep decline," he says.

According to the poll, the battleground for minority status is currently in Ontario, which holds 106 seats. It is in this province that support for the Liberals has taken a dive.

The seat projection model suggests the Conservatives would get between 40 and 44 seats in Ontario -- up dramatically from 11 seats two weeks ago. However, the Liberals would get only 55 to 59 seats, down sharply from 92 seats during the same time frame.

As well, the two parties are in a statistical tie in Ontario at 36 per cent of decided voter support.

The Liberals have a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada, where the party has 44 per cent support among decided voters. The NDP and Conservatives are tied for second with one-quarter of decided voter support.

The Green Party has six per cent support nationally, while two per cent said they would vote for some "other" party, and 12 per cent of Canadians are undecided or won't vote.

There is also bad news for the NDP in British Columbia, where support for the party has dropped six points to 14 per cent decided voter support.

Momentum

The results come just one week into the election camapign, and Ipsos-Reid poll warns the Liberals may not have bottomed out yet.

Voters were asked: Now, some people say that in the up-coming federal election the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin, others say that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country. Which statement is closest to your opinion?

The poll suggests 66 per cent of Canadians believe it is time for a change, up from 60 per cent two weeks ago. Those numbers are highest in Alberta and Ontario.

Meanwhile, 29 per cent of those polled said the Liberal government deserves to be re-elected -- most of those in agreement with that statement were in Atlantic Canada, followed by British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

The poll also looked at the question of what voters think of the party leaders. It asked: Now, overall would you say your opinion of this party leader has improved, worsened, or stayed the same over the last few weeks?

According to the responses given, the leader with the least amount of momentum is Martin. Only 11 per cent of those polled said their opinion of the Liberal leader and his party had improved over the last few weeks, compared to 47 per cent who said it had worsened. Thirty-six per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."

The momentum instead appears to be pushing up Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Thirty-two per cent say their opinion has improved of him over the last few weeks, while 14 per cent say their opinion has worsened. Forty-two per cent said their opinion has "stayed the same."

Jack Layton, leader of the New Democrats, also got a boost with 29 per cent saying they though better of him in the last few weeks. Fourteen per cent said their opinion had worsened, and 44 per cent said it had "stayed the same."

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe had improved opinion among 12 per cent of Canadians and worsened among 10 per cent. Fifty-five per cent of those polled said their opinion had "stayed the same."

[Kliege]

Its the Second week and things already look really bad for Martin and the Liberals. Looking at these polls it seems like public opinion as soured towards the Liberals. Add all the opposition parties numbers together it adds up to 58%. The Bloc is ahead in Quebec 15 points. that means there ahead by more then 20 in French speaking ridings. The Liberals have been hammered by the CPC and the NDP in Ontario. Right now the CPC will not only make a breakthough in Ontario they would effectly split the province share of ridings with a hand full going the NDP. This also means that the Liberals are dead in the water in British Columbia. Its now a CPC and NDP race out there.

Right now, im betting on Martin and the Liberals to go nasty against Harper and I mean really nasty. The likes this country as not seen since the P.C meltdown of 93. Will it work or will it just confirm to the public that this bunch is tired and outdated and willing to do anything to hold upon to power?

We will see. Week 2 of Election campaign

[Dennis]

Actually, the NDP is down to 14% in BC.

Before the election, some were predicting a Conservative sweep of the province. This poll might confirm that analysis.

And Martin has already tried to go negative, with disappointing results. He tried painting Harper as an American, while styling himself as some kind of protector of Canadian health care. Nobody bought it.

Apparently, he is finally bringing in some Chretienites for advice on the campaign. Looks like they are trying to develop a more targeted message, either promoting Martin's record on the economy, or trying to define what kind of change Harper would bring.

I think that going negative would be a big mistake, especially if it's yet another wild attempt to attack Harper.

Alternatively, maybe running on the positives of your own record ain't such a bad idea, especially when it comes to the economy.

Only problem with that, for Martin, is that he has been running away from the Chretien record for a long time now. Moreover, you can't simply run on one aspect of it without reference to such things as corruption and wasteful spending. Harper is also an economist, who might have some positive replies himself.

I think Martin's options are getting increasingly limited as time goes by.

That's what happens when you are an empty leader leading an empty party.

I don't know what kind of strategy can change that.

The Liberals are good at campaigns. At least they have been in the past. We'll see if they have anything else left in them.

If not, their downward slide will likely continue, and the prospects of a change in government will become an increasing likelihood.

Can you say, Prime Minister Stephen Harper?

[Michael Hardner]

Can you say, Prime Minister Stephen Harper?

Still some major obstacles to overcome, like who would support the Conservative minority government.