Are the Wheels coming off the Liberal Train?

[Kliege]

Chrétien loyalists sidelined

By DREW FAGAN

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

The Martin government's prospects of victory have been threatened by deep Liberal divisions that are not abating during the election campaign as Chretien loyalists remain on the sidelines, sources say.

The bitterness is so acute that the Liberals are in danger of losing many of the 15 or more ridings in which fierce nomination battles were fought, senior party members say.

"This election could be won or lost in those seats. They could easily represent the difference between a majority and a minority," a veteran Liberal MP said.

Senior Liberals criticized the Martin camp yesterday for failing, even on the eve of the election call, to reach out sufficiently to disaffected veterans of previous Liberal campaigns who remain willing to take a role.

"You keep hearing, 'I'm doing what I've been asked to do,' and in a lot of cases that's nothing," said one Liberal. "You have a lot of people feeling they are not wanted. . . . At the end of the day, we are all Liberals and the party is bigger than the leader. People would be willing to take part."

The Martin camp, they say, has been remarkably reticent to approach former cabinet ministers who might be willing to pitch in -- including John Manley, Jane Stewart, Robert Nault, Herb Dhaliwal and Sheila Copps.

"I believe that if the Prime Minister called them and asked them to do this or that, they probably would," said a long-time party activist. "But it's a hard call to make."

In some instances, said another senior Liberal, former activists sought to get involved -- despite the differences in recent months between the Chrétien and Martin camps -- and were rebuffed. Some members of the Chrétien government say they are unsurprised by their own circumstances.

The change of leaders naturally led to a change among those taking senior campaign positions. But others suggested yesterday that little effort has been made to use their expertise beyond ensuring that senior party members are kept in the loop on the so-called "message-of-the-day" as the campaign unfolds.

"The split remains real and it is deep," another former government official said. "The divisions at the national level are now being reproduced at the local level."

A lack of enthusiasm about the Liberal campaign was evident Tuesday night at a rally in a Toronto suburb, where about 1,000 people turned out to hear Mr. Martin and his team of local candidates. That was 30 or so people for each of the 36 ridings represented in what was billed as the party's major Greater Toronto campaign event.

"You want to show strength," a rally organizer said. "I don't know how much these events accomplish, but you do want to establish momentum."

While some MPs at the rally suggested that enthusiasm among their volunteers is greater than during the 2000 campaign, others appear worried about a reduction in workers and less commitment among some who have come out.

The Liberals' biggest problem may be in the 15 or so ridings where bitter nomination battles or controversies over Mr. Martin's decision to appoint candidates are hurting Liberal prospects.

One candidate who has managed to unite his local forces, numerous Liberals said, is Richard Mahoney in Ottawa Centre, although he is still widely expected to lose to NDP candidate Ed Broadbent. The problem ridings, Liberals said yesterday, include a handful in the Toronto area such as Davenport and Brampton-Springdale, and some in British Columbia's Lower Mainland, where Mr. Martin appointed candidates.

"The difficulties regarding the riding nomination process will continue to have an impact. There's no question," said Ms. Copps, who lost a rancorous nomination battle to Transportation Minister Tony Valeri. She plans to campaign for a few candidates, including Agriculture Minister Bob Speller.

The most acrimonious situation may be in Mr. Chrétien's former riding of Saint-Maurice-Champlain, where 25-year-old Marie-Eve Bilodeau received the nomination after former Chrétien press secretary Steven Hogue was pushed aside despite wide local support.

"A lot of Liberals are talking about staying home," one riding member said.

Mr. Chrétien is expected to stay well away from politics when he gives a speech at Queen's University today after accepting an honorary degree. Many of his acolytes, the riding member said, seem prepared to stay away from politics for the next five weeks.

[Kliege]

Liberals plunge to 33% in Ontario

Fallout from Ontario budget still hurting Martin: survey

Lee Greenberg, With Files From Bruce Garvey And Anne Dawson

The Ottawa Citizen

Thursday, May 27, 2004

TORONTO -- Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty's budget continues to damage federal Liberal hopes in the province, according to a poll obtained by the Citizen that shows only 33 per cent of Ontario voters will support a Liberal candidate in the coming election.

The Decima/Navigator survey provides the first glimpse of voter intentions in the province since the federal election call on Sunday. Last Wednesday's budget introduced a health premium that could cost individuals as much as $900 a year.

The budget also raised cigarette and alcohol taxes.

Both federal and provincial Liberal support is at historic lows according the poll, which began tracking data in April 2000.

Ontarians' support for Paul Martin's Liberals has dropped from 56 per cent in January to 33 per cent -- a 23-point slide in just four months. Since April, support has fallen seven points, according to the poll.

Conservatives are up to 26-per-cent support, a six-point rise over the same period. The NDP has risen seven points and now enjoys 20-per-cent voter support.

The drop in support is partly attributed to last Wednesday's budget, in which Mr. McGuinty broke a highly publicized campaign promise to hold the line on taxes.

"Part of the problem is definitely the provincial budget, but it is only part of the problem," pollsters write in an e-mail explaining the results. "Just 28 per cent say the federal Liberals deserve to be re-elected while a whopping 57 per cent say it is time for a change."

An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between May 18 (the day of the Liberal budget) and May 20, had Liberal support at 42 per cent, compared to Conservatives at 28 per cent and the NDP at five per cent.

Meanwhile, a day after downplaying Prime Minister Paul Martin's $9-billion medicare package as a "campaign promise" made in the heat of battle, Mr. McGuinty abruptly changed course yesterday and declared himself "very, very" open to the plan.

"I have every confidence that the prime minister is making the right decision with respect to the financing of his health care plan," Mr. McGuinty said at a Kitchener school, where he continued to tout investments in education and health in a post-budget blitz.

However, Mr. Martin shot back at Mr. McGuinty yesterday, saying he would not have reneged on a promise of no tax hikes and furthermore declined to say whether he would be seen in public with the Ontario premier during the federal election campaign.

Mr. Martin was on the defensive yesterday over his prescription to save medicare after several premiers, health care professionals and opposition leaders harshly criticized his plan and in Mr. McGuinty's case, brushed it off as just "a promise made in the thick of a campaign."

On Tuesday, Mr. McGuinty said he would not be rushed into an endorsement of Mr. Martin's medicare package as a matter of political expediency. But in doing so, he unintentionally drew attention to the fact that it was an election promise.

As for Mr. McGuinty joining him on the campaign trail, Mr. Martin ducked: "I'm not going to play that game."

Pollsters suggest the federal race mimics last October's Ontario election, in which the governing Tories lost power after eight years in office.

"The opposition party is running a 'time for a change' campaign while the governing party is attempting to rebrand itself with a relatively popular new leader," the e-mail says. "Can Paul Martin escape Ernie Eves's fate? Can Stephen Harper repeat Dalton McGuinty's success?"

The survey of 600 Ontarians was conducted between May 19 to 23 and is considered accurate within four percentage points. The data is contained in Ontario this Month, a syndicated monthly study for private clients.

Ontario Finance Minister Greg Sorbara told the Citizen editorial board that he didn't expect widespread criticism of the health premium to rebound on to the federal Liberal campaign in the province and hurt Mr. Martin's electoral chances. He said he expected voters "to understand why the provincial Liberal government needed to raise revenues."

In Ontario, the provincial Tories and Liberals are locked in a virtual dead heat. Mr. McGuinty's Liberals have 32-per-cent voter support compared to the Conservative party's 29 per cent.

For the Liberals, that means a 20-point drop in popularity in just five months.

The NDP, which received a huge boost when it won a recent byelection in Hamilton East, is the main beneficiary of the Liberal slide. They are up to 21 per cent, according to the survey.

[Kliege]

Gagliano launches $4.5 million suit against PM

Last Updated Thu, 27 May 2004 17:17:22 EDT

OTTAWA - Former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano launched a $4.5 million suit Thursday against the federal government and Prime Minister Paul Martin over the Liberal government's handling of the sponsorship scandal.

**Post Removed Due to Copyright Infringment**

Admin

[maplesyrup]

One would think so, but the Liberals are still at 42% in the polls, majority government area.

I guess Canadians are not too enthused about the alternatives.

[Kliege]

1. Harper; 2. Martin; 3. Layton

I just lost a nice big old post because of some server error involving upstream downstream something or other. So in my frustration I will resume in bullet points.

Martin is surrounded by banana peels. All the other parties need to do is wait. His campaign is chaired by rookies and it is only a matter of time before his last resort - the campaign - suffers the same fate as his term in office - paralysis by indecision by committee.

Despite a reputation as a "media whore", Jack Layton appears wooden and awkward in his campaign speeches so far. Possibly the jitters. Beware the cheezy over-staged events. And don't give us too much Olivia - the husband and wife team shows well, but as candidates? Not so sure.

Harper's coming across as fiery and articulate. I think he has it in him to clean Martin's clock in a debate. Watch for it. He should avoid staged events, his clips and quips are playing well behind a podium in small rooms.

Duceppe. Well, despite my linguistic leanings, I have nothing to say about the Bloc, so I will only rarely acknowledge his campaign. Mostly because it is a quasi-policy of mine to not acknowledge regional parties. So I'll only bother when it is of consequence to the real national parties.

My guess: this campaign will be won or lost in the debate. The 30 per cent or so undecided are not disillusioned - they are waiting for a silhouette to form out of the political and rhetorical fog. I feel that way myself. 35 days will be insufficient to get to know the candidates, so we will form of confirm our opinions when we see them side by side. Some heat and a lot of light from the debate could have dramatic effects for any party

[August1991]

Kliege, please just post a short quote and then provide a link to the article. Don't paste the whole article. Other than creating needless verbiage, there is also a copyright issue.